Hawks or Doves?

[frankthetank966]

Anybody have Insider access that knows what they are talking about for the Hawks?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/preview2013/story/_/page/atl-1314forecast/atlanta-hawks-outlook

Edited October 14, 2013 by frankthetank966

[HawkItus]

Monday, October 14, 2013
Atlanta Hawks: 2013-14 Forecast

By Tom Haberstroh
ESPN Insider

GO TO: Overview 2012-13 Recap Offseason Moves Outlook

OVERVIEW

It's no secret that Kevin Garnett and Josh Smith helped keep their former teams in the playoff hunt.

We'll kick things off with a little pop quiz: Which two Eastern Conference teams have reached the playoffs each of the last six seasons? (Hint, hint: One of them may or may not be a team we're previewing today.) OK, pencils down.

The answer: The Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks. Yes, both of these teams haven't missed a postseason since Greg Oden was drafted No. 1 overall in 2007. And considering that the Celtics look destined for the league basement next season, we can safely say that the Hawks probably have the best shot of keeping the streak alive.

INSIDER'S TEAM FORECASTS

Read Insider's 2013-14 forecasts on all 30 NBA teams. Forecast schedule »

The Hawks are perennial "honorable mentions." Never great, never bad. They haven't sniffed the Eastern Conference finals recently, but they have more playoff appearances over the last six seasons than the Nets, Warriors, Clippers and Raptors combined.

This should be applauded, right? The Hawks have consistently put a winning product on the floor while other big-market teams gut their rosters to the bone and try to build it back up into playoff shape. And the Hawks are nothing if not resilient. Last season, they absorbed the loss of their go-to scorer, Joe Johnson, and marched right back into the playoffs as a No. 6 seed. The season before, they essentially were without Al Horford for the season and still won 60 percent of their games. In 2010-11, they lost their starting point guard, Kirk Hinrich, in the first round due to a hamstring injury and still pushed the Chicago Bulls to six games in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

And the Hawks are at it again in 2013-14. With Josh Smith taking his chucking talents to Detroit, the Hawks will lose their leading scorer for the second consecutive offseason. And although they struck out on the Dwight Howard sweepstakes (if they were ever serious suitors in the first place), the Hawks look destined for yet another playoff ticket and they'll be nimbler on the financial books, too. The criminally underrated Paul Millsap will replace Smith on the roster and the former Jazz big man will come at almost half the price over the next two seasons. They've also lost their head coach by their own doing, firing Larry Drew after the season and bringing in Mike Budenholzer, who served under Gregg Popovich on the Spurs' bench for more than a decade.

With Johnson and Smith out of Atlanta, the Hawks begin a new chapter next season, but with Jeff Teague and Horford leading the way, it's likely going to be the same old story in Atlanta: a solid playoff team. Nothing more, nothing less.

2012-13 RECAP

Things were looking good for the Atlanta Hawks before Louis Williams went down with an injury.

After just two weeks on the job, newly hired Atlanta GM Danny Ferry made quite the splash last offseason by trading Johnson and his gargantuan contract to the Brooklyn Nets for a host of one-year rentals and two future draft picks. It ended up being a juicy appetizer to a similar Brooklyn-Boston blockbuster this offseason, wiping away Johnson's $90 million that he was due through the end of time in return for immediate flexibility. Shedding the contract put the Hawks in the conversation for either Howard and/or Chris Paul in the 2013 offseason (I'll get to that later).

The on-court ramifications loomed large. Losing Johnson would certainly hurt, but the Hawks were prepared. With some tinkering on the periphery, Ferry bet that this would be a case of addition by subtraction, or at the very least maintenance by subtraction. Johnson's nightly 20 points would be gone, but they'd try to piece it together with Horford, Smith and Teague stepping up along with two new beacons of efficiency, Kyle Korver and Louis Williams, chipping in from the perimeter.

The plan worked for the most part. The Hawks jumped out to a 20-10 record entering January, making Johnson the latest compelling example of the Ewing Theory -- the idea coined by Bill Simmons in which a team improves after jettisoning a seemingly irreplaceable star player.

Though it seemed awkward at the time, the Hawks filled Johnson's starting spot by alternating among Williams, Devin Harris (whom Ferry acquired from Utah forMarvin Williams) and the Player Formerly Known As DeShawn Stevenson. Through the end of December, the Hawks had kept pace with the Heat and the Knicks for the best record in the East. Horford was registering 20 and 10 most nights and Smith somehow turned into Johnson from downtown as he inexplicably shot 38.3 percent from beyond the arc.

So, yeah, who needs Joe Johnson anyway?

Well, as it turns out who they really needed was Louis Williams.

KEVIN PELTON'S 2012-13 STATS

W-L: 44-38 (Pythagorean W-L: 43-39)
Offensive Efficiency: 107.0 (15th)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (10th)
Pace Factor: 90.9 (13th)
Highest WARP: Al Horford (8.4)

On Jan. 18, Louis Williams suffered a season-ending ACL tear in his right knee while launching for a fast-break layup against none other than Johnson's new squad, the Nets. For a team lacking shot creators on the wing, it was a huge blow for the Hawks, and they consequently went 22-22 for the rest of the season to finish with the East's sixth seed. The Hawks started as a surprise Eastern Conference contender, but the Williams injury, combined with Harris' lingering foot problems, effectively wrapped the bow on the Hawks' season.

The Hawks' slide out of contention also coincided with constant speculation about Smith's future with the only NBA team he had ever known. As a free agent at the end of the season, Smith's name dominated the trade deadline rumor mill, but Ferry ultimately decided to let Smith's contract run out with the Hawks rather than take on additional long-term salary in a midseason deal.

It was only fitting that Smith's last hurrah in Atlanta was perhaps his most maddening season yet. With Johnson and Williams gone from the scene, Smith took it upon himself to jack up more 3-pointers than ever. That wouldn't be so horrible if he was half decent as a shooter, but Smith shot a pathetic 23.9 percent on 3.1 tries per game after the All-Star break, ensuring that every last Hawks fan wouldn't have any hair left to pull after the Josh Smith era. Making matters worse, Smith completely lost all confidence in his free throw stroke, converting a career-low 51.7 percent of his freebies last season. Smith wasn't exactly cultivating goodwill from the Atlanta faithful during his contract year; if there's one thing fans hate more than anything, it's a star missing free throws.

If nothing else, the 2012-13 season instilled confidence that the Hawks would be in good hands with Teague and Horford running the show going forward. Coming off an injury-riddled 2011-12, Horford was Atlanta's horse last season, registering 17.4 points and 10.2 rebounds in 37.2 minutes per game -- all career-highs. Meanwhile, Teague continued his upward trajectory as he watched his assist rate balloon to 7.9 assists per 36 minutes, up from his previous career rate of 5.4 assists per 36 minutes. Even with the loss of Johnson and the devastating injuries in the backcourt, the Hawks still made the playoffs on the back of a top-10 defense. A decent Atlanta season. Yet again.

OFFSEASON MOVES

The Hawks signed former Utah Jazz forward Paul Millsap at a bargain rate and hope for a big payoff.

By sending Johnson to Brooklyn in the 2012 offseason, the Hawks took the first step to woo Howard or/and Paul once they became free agents this offseason: clear out some cap space. Yes, a Howard-Paul haul was little more than a pipe dream for Atlanta, but worst-case scenario, Atlanta would remain competitive while dramatically improving its long-term cap situation.

As it turned out, Howard and Paul had other ideas as Howard decided to join James Harden in Houston and Paul reupped with the Clips, both on max deals. So how did the Hawks respond? By dramatically improving their long-term cap situation and remaining competitive.

They finally cut ties with Smith as they watched him sign in Detroit for four years and $54 million. It's tempting to say that the Hawks screwed up by letting him walk away for nothing, but in the Hawks' case, there's real value in that. It's not so much that the $54 million price tag was steep in of itself, but a big Smith contract would also kiss goodbye any hope for flexibility in the foreseeable future. The Smith-era Hawks had been capped out for years and had little to show for it in the way of championship contention.

So rather than accepting the status quo of a Smith-Horford-Teague trio, Ferry went shopping with about $35 million in cap space. And boy did he find some bang for his buck. By signing Millsap to a two-year, $19 million contract, Ferry found a comparable player to Smith at nearly half the price. If it weren't for Mikhail Prokhorov hypnotizing Andrei Kirilenko to sign for the taxpayer's midlevel exception, Ferry would have easily won the fake award for best contract of the offseason.

You can look, but you won't find an advanced metric out there that thought Smith was a better player than Millsap last season. But Ferry somehow managed to grab Millsap at $4 million less per year. How good is Millsap? Regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) believes that Millsap was a top-10 player last season for his work on both ends of the floor. He may not boast Smith's length or vision, but Millsap won't hijack the offense, and unlike Smith, the former Jazz big man can actually hit a free throw.

INSIDER'S PLAYER PROFILES

Check out Insider's player scouting reports and '13-14 stat projections for the Hawks' roster. Player Profiles

With Millsap in tow, Ferry was just getting started. With some extra cash left over, Ferry also scooped up Elton Brand for $4 million on a one-year deal, which means that the Hawks will be getting both Brand and Millsap for exactly the same price as Smith next season. Sure, Brand isn't nearly the player he once was, but he's a solid veteran backup whose market value probably would be higher if he hadn't been foolishly amnestied by the Sixers last offseason. Ferry took advantage of that.

Ferry also wisely played the waiting game with Teague, who was due for a big pay raise following a career year. Rather than jump out with a hasty offer, Ferry shrewdly let the market dictate the price of his restricted free agent, much to Teague's dismay. Since Teague was a restricted free agent, the Hawks held the right to match any outside offer, so once the Bucks came in with a four-year, $32 million deal, the Hawks happily reeled Teague back at a reasonable salary of $8 million.

With the NBA placing a greater premium on 3-point shooting, the Hawks then brought back Korver, one of the best sharpshooters to ever play the game, on a four-year, $24 million deal. At first glance, that seems like an aggressive price point for a limited player exiting his prime, but the Hawks understood they were 6.9 points per 100 possessions more efficient offensively with Korver on the floor last season. Korver's defense isn't nearly as bad as his rep, and the going rate for shooters has been on the rise as sharper front offices are becoming keenly aware of the subtle virtues of floor spacing.

If the Hawks did strike out this offseason, it was in failing to find a legitimate center to replace Zaza Pachulia after he signed for $15.6 million over three years to play in Milwaukee. However, Ferry continued to rule the bargain bin, grabbing the sneaky-good Gustavo Ayón off the scrap heap at a fraction of Pachulia's cost. Though some of the Hawks' most potent lineups featured Pachulia last season, Atlanta's long-time paint enforcer was coming off a torn Achilles suffered late last season.

But the Hawks' most interesting addition this offseason may have been their first-round draft pick Dennis Schröder, the German pick-and-roll phenom who took the Las Vegas Summer League by storm as a 19-year-old. Selected 17th overall, Schröder could be the steal of the draft and may even give Ferry second thoughts about Teague as his point guard of the future. Keep an eye on the kid.

2013-14 OUTLOOK

Al Horford looks to take the Hawks back to their usual playoff spot.

In just about a year's time, Ferry has overhauled the Hawks' bloated books to the point that they have just $139 million committed over the next four seasons. In comparison, Johnson and Smith will receive $123.5 million combined from Brooklyn and Detroit, respectively. And the Hawks might be better off without them.

After slicing about $10 million off their payroll from last season and maintaining long-term flexibility, the Hawks should find themselves finishing -- yep, you guessed it -- right back in the thick of the playoff picture. Though they'll lose some athleticism and shot-blocking with Smith gone, they certainly won't miss his ill-advised jumpers, which plagued the Hawks' offense last season. Millsap is a much better shooter than Smith (re: not terrible) and there's even some potential for Millsap to be a corner 3 threat. Teeny tiny sample size alert: Millsap shot 8-for-12 there last season.

PELTON'S 2013-14 PROJECTIONS

Projected Offensive Rating: 108.8 (12th)
Projected Defensive Rating: 107.5 (15th)
Effective (weighted) age: 28.3 (11th)

The Hawks will also enjoy the return of Williams once he recovers from ACL surgery, whenever that might be. If he can get back to preinjury scoring levels, Williams should anchor the second unit just fine and perform his signature "Lou-for-1" magic tricks to get extra buckets in the waning seconds at the end of quarters. SCHOENE projections have Williams' efficiency numbers tumbling a bit next season, which is probably a smart assumption given his injury status.

But the real wild card for the Hawks is John Jenkins, who could be the team's starting shooting guard out of the gate. That's a scary proposition for the Vandy product coming off an uninspiring rookie season, but the good news is that he can't be much worse than last season's starter, Stevenson. Jenkins looks to capitalize after a strong showing at summer league, where he averaged 15.6 points per game and shot 44.4 percent from downtown. But then again, it's summer league.

SCHOENE sees the Hawks improving on the offensive end with Millsap and Jenkins getting the bulk of Smith's and Stevenson's minutes. The Hawks should find themselves at the free throw line far more often next season after pretty much avoiding it last season, and they'll also see a dip in turnovers with Smith out of the picture.

All in all, the Hawks project to have the 12th-ranked offense next season, up from their No. 15 ranking last season, while maintaining an above-average defense in Smith's absence. That translates to a 45-37 record, good for sixth place in a top-heavy Eastern Conference. With a slimmer payroll, the Hawks could add pieces at the deadline if they feel the urge to crash the East's top-four party. Thanks to Ferry, the Hawks are still good and have tons of flexibility. That last bit seemed impossible 16 months ago.

SCHOENE Projection: 45-37, 2nd in Southeast, 6th in Eastern Conference

NBA INSIDER TEAM FORECAST SCHEDULE

Note: Schedule is based on SCHOENE's projected conference standings in 2013-14.