Draft news by Supes

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How will Mudiay translate to NBA?

 

Question: How does Emmanuel Mudiay's performance in China translate to the NBA?

 

Chad Ford: This week ESPN Insider unleashed a major Emmanuel Mudiay package that included my feature story on Mudiay's draft stock from high school to China, a Fran Fraschilla film session on Mudiay's performance at the Nike Hoop Summit and Jeff Goodman's look at what several of Mudiay's opponents in China thought of his NBA future.

 

But that story wouldn't be complete without a Ford-Pelton file on the subject. I went on for 3,000 words on what scouts and GMs thinks about Mudiay's draft stock. I won't repeat all of that here. But in summary, they believe he's a top-four prospect in the draft with elite size (6-foot-5, 200 pounds) and athleticism for his position (point guard).

 

What I think everyone really wants to know, however, is what do the numbers say?

 

Kevin Pelton: More so than any other international league, the Chinese Basketball Association tends to produce eye-popping numbers. Teams are allowed just two imports, who tend to play nearly all of the games and create an enormous percentage of the offense. So per-game stats from the CBA can't be taken at face value.

 

Looking at how players who have gone from the NBA to the CBA over the last four seasons (or vice versa) have fared, it becomes clear that the level of competition in China is not nearly as high as the European leagues I've studied. In particular, usage rates and rebound rates tend to drop dramatically in the conversion process. Shooting percentages, because of the tradeoff between usage and efficiency, actually convert about the same as they do from Europe.

 

Let's take Andray Blatche as an example. This season, he averaged 31.1 points, 14.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game in the CBA. But when that performance is translated to its NBA equivalent, Blatche was really performing at the level of a player with 16.5 points, 10.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists per 36 minutes -- not dissimilar to his NBA numbers last season with the Brooklyn Nets (18.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists per 36).

 

Applying the same translations to Mudiay turns his averages of 18.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game to 11.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.2 assists per 36 minutes in the NBA. Among rookies, Marcus Smart of the Boston Celtics (10.5 points, 4.9 assists and 4.4 rebounds per 36 minutes) would be the best match for Mudiay.

 

Question: How does Mudiay rate compared to other top prospects?

 

Ford: Some teams have Mudiay as high as No. 2 on their internal big boards. A few teams have him ranked at No. 5. A small handful of GMs still believe, with strong workouts and the lottery balls falling the right way (toward a team like Philadelphia, for example), he could be the No. 1 pick.

 

The draft is really devoid of elite point guard prospects, which helps Mudiay as well. His only real competition among guards is Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell, and they are totally different players. Mudiay is about power and athleticism. Russell is a smooth athlete with a killer jump shot. Most scouts believe Mudiay is more of a full-time point guard than Russell, however, which is another point in his favor. There isn't another elite point guard prospect in the lottery.

 

Where would Mudiay fall on your statistical big board? How does he compare to Russell? And how much can we learn from the 12 games Mudiay played in the CBA this season?

 

Pelton: Mudiay's 2.4 WARP projection would put him ninth on my board at this point. But among top-10 prospects, he's fourth behind Russell (3.1), Myles Turner (2.glasses.gif and Karl-Anthony Towns (2.7). So he improves to fourth in the consensus ratings I introduced in last week's Ford-Pelton column that also consider the scouting perspective, behind Russell, Towns and Jahlil Okafor. In sum, Mudiay appears to belong in the discussion of the top-four prospects in this year's draft.

 

Obviously, the more information we had the better I'd feel about Mudiay's projection. But because of the way volatile stats are regressed to the mean while more consistent ones are credited to the individual, my experience is that translated statistics can pick out the top prospects surprisingly quickly. So I wouldn't be especially concerned that his projection is a fluke.

 

Question: What are Mudiay's strengths and weaknesses? Who are NBA comparisons for him?

 

Ford: While he's not a great shooter yet and can play with tunnel vision at times, Mudiay shows potential to be a point guard who can find balance between running a team and scoring the basketball. He can score from anywhere on the floor yet can also be unselfish when he needs to be. I think his ability to get to and finish at the rim has teams excited. Perhaps his best attributes right now besides his size and athleticism are his ability to defend both positions in the backcourt and the high level of maturity he showed while playing (and often sitting on the bench) in China.

 

The scouts I've spoken with, along with SMU coach Larry Brown (whom I interviewed for the article I wrote), typically use three comps for him: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and John Wall. For those less enamored with his skill set, the Tyreke Evans comp comes up a lot.

 

Pelton: The big thing that stands out as a strength is Mudiay's rebounding. His projected defensive rebound rate would be average for an NBA shooting guard and is very good for a point guard. As I've noted in the past, rebounding guards tend to translate better to the NBA than their poor-rebounding counterparts. Mudiay's 2-point percentage is also solid. The biggest knock on his game right now is a lack of free-throw attempts. At the same time, given he shot just 57.4 percent from the line in China, that might not be the worst thing.

 

The comps you mention match up well with what SCHOENE finds in terms of similarity. Rose is the closest match for Mudiay at the same age, with Wall also in the top three (along with Jrue Holiday). And Westbrook and Evans are among Mudiay's top-10 comps.

 

Question: Who's your sleeper this week?

 

Ford: Nigel Hayes, F, So., Wisconsin

Two Wisconsin players, center Frank Kaminsky and forward Sam Dekker, have been on our Big Board all year. Kaminsky looks like a potential late lottery pick while Dekker looks like he could be a first-round pick. But over the course of the past six weeks or so, another Badger, Hayes, is getting tremendous buzz from scouts. He cracked our Top 100 a few weeks ago, and the more research I do on Hayes the more it appears he's making a push into the late first to early second round.

 

While he lacks ideal size (he's listed at 6-7, 250) for his most obvious position in the pros, power forward, he has excellent length (a 7-2 wingspan), is a terrific athlete, has an NBA body and has shown the ability to stretch the floor with his jumper. He's not a great rebounder, however, and I'm curious what the stats say about him.

 

Pelton: They certainly confirm that. Hayes' projected rebound rate would be on the low side for a power forward. On the plus side, his steal and assist percentages are both strong for a power forward, and at 20 years old he's got room to grow into his game. Hayes will probably end up somewhere in the early second round in terms of projected WARP if he declares for this year's draft.

 

 

My sleeper: Zhou Qi, F/C, Xinjiang

 

Introducing a revolutionary thought: What if Mudiay isn't the most interesting prospect in China this year? Zhou is a 7-1 19-year-old seeing CBA action for the first time, and his numbers are off the charts. Zhou's 72.2 percent shooting is tops in the league, and his block rate (10.8 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts) is nearly double anyone else. His stats translate to 14.1 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.3 blocks per 36 minutes in the NBA. That kind of production would make Zhou a surefire lottery pick, and probably more. Is there any chance he can actually be this good?

 

Ford: I think if there's an international player not named Kristaps Porzingis or Mario Hezonja who sneaks into the first round, it will be Zhou. He's got great size, is very athletic and is extremely skilled. The only question, and it's a big one, concerns his frame. He's rail thin. Zhou is going to need to add a lot of strength to keep from getting pushed all over the place in the NBA. If he had a better body, I think he would be a lottery pick. Teams are that enamored. But most think he'll spend at least one more year in China working on his strength. Still, as it stands, Zhou might be the perfect draft-and-stash candidate in the NBA. Give him a few years and he could be special.

 

Pelton: Paging Sam Hinkie?

 

Twin Towers: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/karl-anthony-and-cauley-stein-kentuckys-two-headed-monster-is-the-future-of-the-nba/

 

 

 

Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0

There's a new No. 1 player on the board.

 

Duke freshman Jahlil Okafor has been the consensus top player since the first mock drafts were released the day after the 2014 NBA draft. However, it's another frosh who has moved into the conversation for the top slot -- many NBA sources think Karl-Anthony Towns has moved ahead of Okafor due to his upside.

 

It's a two-man race for the No. 1 pick -- and it'll likely come down to which team wins the lottery.

 

Note: Draft order is based on official standings through Monday, March 9. And traded picks are denoted by numbers with explanations at the bottom.

 

 

1. New York Knicks - Karl-Anthony Towns

 

Analysis: Jahlil Okafor has been the odds-on favorite all season long, but Towns has come on strong lately, and this will be a difficult decision for Phil Jackson and the Knicks, or whoever gets the top selection. Okafor is a true low-post center while Towns is long, skilled, versatile and has a higher upside.

 

2. Philadelphia 76ers - Jahlil Okafor

 

Analysis: Yes, I know that the Sixers already have a pair of big men in Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel. However, Philly general manager Sam Hinkie loves accumulating assets, and he can either keep Okafor or try to field offers for the pick. Okafor can easily play alongside the more skilled Embiid if that's the route Hinkie opts to take.

 

3. Minnesota Timberwolves - Emmanuel Mudiay

Analysis: (1) The Wolves have Ricky Rubio, but it will be too difficult for Flip Saunders to pass on the big, strong and athletic point guard who played this past season in China. He just has too much upside and fits along with the new breed of point guard in the league.

 

4. Los Angeles Lakers - D'Angelo Russell

 

Analysis: (3) No one has seen his NBA stock soar quite as much as Russell since the start of the season. He's not an explosive athlete, but he has a high IQ and can both facilitate and score. The Lakers need an upgrade at the point guard spot, and they will get Kobe Bryant and Julius Randle back from injuries next season.

 

5. Orlando Magic - Stanley Johnson

 

Analysis: Magic general manager Rob Hennigan has gone the "athletic" route recently by drafting Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton. Don't be shocked if Hennigan goes with another high-level athlete in the physically ready Johnson, who is strong and has shot much better than many anticipated this season.

 

6. Sacramento Kings - Kristaps Porzingis

 

Analysis: (2) The Kings have a true low-post big man in DeMarcus Cousins, but could use a skilled frontcourt player, and the 7-foot Porzingis fits the bill. He can really shoot it from the perimeter, but it will take him time to adjust to the physical aspect of the NBA game.

 

7.Denver Nuggets - Mario Hezonja

 

Analysis: The Nuggets have a nice young inside tandem with Kenneth Faried, and Jusuf Nurkic, along with one of the better point guards in the NBA in Ty Lawson. Denver could use a young wing with size who can make plays for himself and his teammates. That's what Hezonja is: a high-IQ guy who has tremendous court vision and can also score.

 

8. Detroit Pistons - Willie Cauley-Stein

 

Analysis: The Pistons have to prepare as if they will lose Greg Monroe, and the frontline duo of Andre Drummond and Cauley-Stein would be dominant -- especially on the defensive end. Drummond has the ability to step out on the offensive end, while Cauley-Stein is limited offensively.

 

9. Atlanta Hawks (from Brooklyn Nets) - Kevon Looney

 

Analysis: (5) Paul Millsap is a free agent after the season, and even if he comes back to Atlanta, Looney would be a nice addition. He's long, athletic and can really rebound. Looney is a tweener forward now, but could eventually become more of a 3 in the NBA with improved consistency on his perimeter shot.

 

10. Boston Celtics - Myles Turner

 

Analysis: Some teams might be a little scared off because he has an unorthodox running style, but he's a legit 7-footer who plays hard, can step out and make shots from long distance and is also a quality shot-blocker. Danny Ainge won't be able to pass on Turner due to his size, skill and potential.

 

11. Utah Jazz - Justise Winslow

 

Analysis: The Jazz could use a defensive-minded, athletic wing, and Winslow brings toughness and is a potential lock-down defender who is more than capable of making jump shots. He'd fit well around guys like Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors.

 

12. Philadelphia 76ers (from Miami Heat) - Devin Booker

 

Analysis: (7) His stock has skyrocketed throughout the course of the season due to his size and ability to make shots from the perimeter. The Sixers could sorely use a knock-down shooter -- and Booker might be the best in the entire draft.

 

13. Phoenix Suns - Kelly Oubre

 

Analysis: General manager Ryan McDonough has his backcourt of Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, and he loves athleticism. Oubre started his college career slowly, but has come on strong over the last month or so and brings length, athleticism and also a threat from the perimeter.

 

14. Houston Rockets (from New Orleans Pelicans) - Frank Kaminsky

 

Analysis: (4) He's been the best overall player in college basketball this season and would be a great fit in Houston. He is a threat on the perimeter, can also score in the paint, and would complement Dwight Howard well up front.

 

15. Charlotte Hornets - Jerian Grant

 

Analysis: The Hornets need a skilled wing who can shoot it and also defend. Grant is a true combo guard who could fit in alongside Kemba Walker. He's had an All-American-caliber season for the Irish. He can score, facilitate and has the size to compensate for Walker and successfully guard 2s.

 

16. Indiana Pacers - Trey Lyles

 

Analysis: The Pacers will get Paul George back, and Lyles would give Indiana a skilled forward who can make shots from all over the floor, can rebound at a high level and also possesses a terrific feel for the game.

 

17. Milwaukee Bucks - Caris LeVert

 

Analysis: The Bucks have a couple of talented, young forwards with Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo, and also a young, long point guard with Michael Carter-Williams. LeVert is exactly what this team needs. He brings length, can really play defense and has become a reliable perimeter shooter. The question is whether he actually declares for the draft because he's missed the last half of the season with a foot injury.

 

18. Oklahoma City Thunder - Justin Anderson

 

Analysis: Sam Presti usually goes with the best player available -- and that should be the case even more with the uncertainty surrounding Kevin Durant. Anderson has been injured for the second half of the season, but he's a high-level athlete who shot nearly 50 percent from 3 and is also a tremendous wing defender. The question will be whether Anderson decides to leave school or return for his senior campaign.

 

19. Washington Wizards - Montrezl Harrell

 

Analysis: The Wizards have Nene and Marcin Gortat up front, but they won't be able to pass on Harrell this late. He's a high-energy guy who can really do work on the glass. Think Thomas Robinson.

 

20. Chicago Bulls - Kris Dunn

 

Analysis: Gar Forman and the Bulls need a quality point guard since Derrick Rose is often injured -- and Kirk Hinrich isn't getting any younger. Dunn is a little wild with the ball at times, but he has great court vision, is long and athletic and has improved his perimeter shot.

 

21. Toronto Raptors - Bobby Portis

 

Analysis: The Raptors have athletic guys, but they need a skilled forward. Portis is long, is an above-average athlete and has also proved he can make shots to the 3-point line.

 

22. Cleveland Cavaliers - Sam Dekker

 

Analysis: Best remaining player on the board. Dekker didn't put up eye-popping numbers this season, but part of the reason was due to an early injury and also a loaded group on his team that included Frank Kaminsky. Dekker played exceptionally well at LeBron James' Skills Academy this past summer, and that can't hurt matters.

 

23. San Antonio Spurs - Jarrell Martin

 

Analysis: Martin has so much upside, and the Spurs need youth and talent up front to go along with Kawhi Leonard. Martin hasn't shot it well from beyond the arc this season, but he's gotten tougher, and has been extremely effective on the glass. Martin is a high-upside guy.

 

24. Dallas Mavericks - Terry Rozier

 

Analysis: (11) It's looking more and more unlikely that the Mavs keep Rajon Rondo, and there's also a chance Monta Ellis goes elsewhere. That means Dallas needs another guard, and while Rozier isn't a pure point, he is a guy who can make plays with the ball in his hands -- for himself and for others.

 

25. Boston Celtics (from Los Angeles Clippers - Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

 

Analysis: (9) The Celtics need an athletic wing, and while Hollis-Jefferson isn't a terrific shooter, he thrives in transition and can really, really defend.

 

26. Portland Trailblazers - R.J. Hunter

 

Analysis: The son of Georgia State coach Ron Hunter struggled this season from beyond the arc, but NBA guys are well aware he can stroke it from long distance.

 

27. Los Angeles Lakers (from Houston Rockets) - Jakob Poeltl

 

Analysis: (glasses.gif The 7-foot Austrian is still a work in progress, but he's got a bright future because he's a big man who plays hard, is agile and runs the court well. True centers are hard to find, and while it will take time for Poeltl, he may be worth the wait.

 

28. Memphis Grizzlies - Cliff Alexander

 

Analysis: (6) Alexander was projected as a lottery pick entering the season, but he's had a rough season. He struggled on the court, especially on the defensive end, and was held off the court due to an NCAA investigation. But Alexander fits the Grizzlies -- he's a tough power forward who brings a physical nature to the court. His skill level is limited.

 

29. Brooklyn Nets (from Atlanta Hawks - Cameron Payne

 

Analysis: At this point in the draft, you just go with the best player on the board. Payne came into the season as a hidden gem, but now every NBA guy knows about the Racers' point guard. He's fast, skilled, knows how to play and can both score and set up guys. With Deron Williams aging and injury prone, Payne fits here.

 

30. Golden State Warriors - Dakari Johnson

 

Analysis: The Warriors need a quality young big man who can take up space and rebound. They have Andrew Bogut and David Lee, but those guys have injury histories, so Johnson would help.

Edited March 17, 2015 by nbasupes40retired

[NBASupes]

 

Chad Ford Big Board 7.0

 

March Madness is coming, and that means our Big Board is likely in for some significant shakeups.

 

Every year, NBA scouts and general managers insist that the NCAA tournament is just another few games in a much longer resume for a player. And then, every year, several players see their draft stock soar (see: Shabazz Napier last year).

 

This year, the shakeups are happening before the first game of the NCAA tournament has been played. A growing number of NBA GMs and scouts are now saying that Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns is No. 1 on their internal big boards. Duke's Jahlil Okafor has been at our top spot since our first Big Board in July. He remains at the top now but only by a razor-thin margin. Just a little under half of pro GMs and scouts now favor Towns.

 

Our new Lottery Mock Draft now reflects the rise of Towns on so many draft boards. We've also updated our Top 100 to reflect the overall progress of players beyond our top 30.

 

Remember, the Top 100 is a reflection on the consensus of NBA scouts and GMs about a player's relative value in the draft. Our Big Board is a more detailed look at the top 30 players (essentially the first round of the NBA draft) in our Top 100. And our Mock Draft is a mechanism to explain what we believe individual teams will do with their pick(s).

 

Here's our seventh Big Board of the 2015 NBA draft.

 

1. Jahlil Okafor

 

As we noted in the intro, Okafor's grip on the No. 1 pick continues to loosen. He's been battling an ankle injury for the past few weeks, but that's not the reason. He's still put up some monster games, such as a recent 30-point, 9-rebound effort against Virginia Tech and 13-point, 14-rebound performance against Syracuse. Okafor remains the most polished offensive freshman big man we've seen in a decade.

 

The issue is that Towns is not only a superior defender, but he's catching up on the offensive end. Just a little over half of the NBA scouts and GMs I spoke with have Okafor No. 1 right now. There isn't a GM alive who isn't praying that Okafor will meet Towns one-on-one in the NCAA tournament. Given the seedings, it likely won't happen until the Final Four, but if it does, it will add another major level of intrigue to what is, already, the best sporting event in the world.

 

2. Karl-Anrthony Towns

 

For most of the season, the only real debate between Towns and Okafor centered on defense versus offense. Towns was the superior defender, Okafor the superior offensive player. However, in the past month, Towns has made tremendous strides offensively while still dominating the defensive side of the ball. In the last 10 games, Towns has averaged 13.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG and 2.5 BPG in just 24 MPG for Kentucky. During that stretch, he's shooting a crazy 50-for-68 from the field (74 percent) and 29-for-33 from the free-throw line (88 percent). He has clearly emerged as the best offensive weapon on this undefeated Kentucky team despite his age.

 

His ability to stretch the floor, protect the rim and make free throws may make up for his lack of low-post polish (though he's not too shabby there, either). A huge tournament for Towns, or even more importantly, a win in a one-on-one showdown with Okafor, might be all he needs to push him into the top spot.

 

3. Emmanuel Mudiay

 

We went all-in on Mudiay last week. I wrote a feature story on his play in China and his quest to be the No. 1 pick. Fran Fraschilla broke him down in a film session. Jeff Goodman talked to former NBA players who played against Mudiay in China for a scouting report, and Kevin Pelton and I examined what analytics had to say about Mudiay. The consensus? Mudiay is still very much in play for the No. 1 pick. While his play in China didn't move the needle too much, how he handled the situation seems to have convinced scouts that he has the maturity and work ethic to handle the NBA.

 

4. D'Angelo Russell

 

Russell was the hot name when we put together Big Board 6.0. His slide from No. 3 to No. 4 is a small one and has less to do with his play and more to do with the recent infatuation scouts have with Towns and Mudiay. However, it must be said that Russell's play of late hasn't been quite up to par. Since February, Russell is shooting just 20-for-58 from beyond the arc (34 percent), has 28 turnovers and Ohio State has gone just 5-4 in that stretch. He's still the most lethal wing scorer in the draft -- and he's asked to shoulder a huge load at Ohio State -- but he hasn't been great of late and to make the move to No. 1, he's got to be great.

 

5. Kristaps Porzingis

 

Porzingis continues to draw praise from both NBA and international scouts who insist he's one of the best young international prospects to come along in a while. He has got size, athleticism and can both stretch the floor and protect the rim. Several respected international GMs and scouts swear he is the second coming of Dirk Nowitzki. The more cautious ones think he's a more athletic version of the Bulls' Nikola Mirotic. Either way, he should be a top-five pick. His lack of strength and definitive position are both knocks, but there are few plays with his size, skill and athleticism in the NBA.

 

6. Kevon Looney

 

This is where things start to get much more fluid on the Big Board. Anyone ranked from No. 6 to No. 12 could end up here. Looney isn't having a dominant freshman season, but his upside keeps him ranked this high on the Big Board. He has crazy length, is a terrific rebounder and should be able to play multiple positions on both ends of the floor. He nearly averaged a double-double as a freshman and showed fight even when UCLA was struggling. Right now, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Bruins on the wrong side of the bubble for the NCAA tournament. If UCLA does not make the tourney, has Looney done enough to secure his place as a top-10 pick? Virtually every scout I spoke with thinks the answer is yes. There is just too much upside to ignore.

 

7. Willie Cauley-Stein

 

Cauley-Stein is the most versatile defensive big man in the country. Offensively, he's still a major work in progress, but lately he's started hitting midrange jumpers. Despite the fact that he's a junior, NBA scouts still mention upside when talking about Cauley-Stein. He may never average 10 PPG in the NBA, but his defensive versatility alone may make him worth a top-10 pick.

 

8. Mario Hezonja

 

Hezonja's game has cooled off considerably the last few weeks, but at this point, I think he's done enough to put himself in serious play to go as high as the No. 6 pick in the draft. His combination of athleticism, shooting ability and energy might make him the most well-rounded of the wings in this draft class.

 

9. Myles Turner

 

Turner is inconsistent. Maddeningly so. And the Longhorns might be the biggest disappointment of any team in the NCAA this season. There was a time when they looked like a potential top-10 team in the country. Now they are barely hanging on for a spot in the NCAA tournament. But Turner is not solely to blame. Rick Barnes has a logjam in the middle and does not really seem to know how to best use his talented freshman center. But scouts are not down on him at all, despite his up-and-down play. He is big, protects the rim and can shoot the 3. Plus, everyone I have spoken with thinks he will be much better in the NBA.

 

10. Justise Winslow

 

Since recovering from shoulder and rib injuries, Winslow has been the most consistent wing in the draft over the past month. Since February, he has averaged 15.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.4 SPG and is shooting 55 percent from beyond the arc. Even his 2-point jumper percentage is up to 16 percent (still, yikes). Just as important, he has been a major reason why Duke has gone undefeated during that stretch. While he does not get the accolades of Okafor, he has been equally important to the team, and when Okafor was out of the lineup against Clemson, Winslow had 20 points and 13 boards. The same teams that had him ranked as a potential No. 5 or No. 6 pick in the draft in November and December are quietly moving him back up into that range, with a number of scouts praying that a Stanley Johnson-Winslow matchup might be in the cards for the Final Four.

 

11. Kelly Oubre

 

After a super slow start, Oubre has been pretty steady over the past month. With the exception of a zero-point performance against TCU, he's averaging 14 PPG, 7.0 RPG and is shooting 50 percent from 3 in his last six games. Oubre might be the rawest of the four top wings, but many scouts still believe the lefty has the most upside for a team willing to be patient.

 

12. Stanley Johnson

 

Scouts have been split on Oubre, Hezonja, Winslow and Johnson all season. But when recently polling scouts, it was clear that Johnson might be losing some ground. While he has an NBA body and a reputation as a winner, he's struggled a bit lately -- not only with his shooting but also with major defensive lapses. His play against Utah (3-for-19 from the field along with some lazy defense) earned him a spot on the bench. The scouts who have closely watched Johnson say that his reputation hasn't always lived up to his play this season.

 

He's not the athlete everyone says he is, nor does he have the motor everyone says he does. As one veteran scout said: "He takes plays off. His motor isn't always great and with the exception of a great NBA body, his tools aren't all they're made out to be. He struggles to finish at the rim. In my opinion, he's the most overhyped player in the draft."

 

13. Frank Kaminsky

 

Kaminsky continues to wow. It's tough for seniors to climb too high -- especially seniors like Kaminsky who lack flash or elite athleticism -- but, man, has he been good. He blocks shots, rebounds, scores in the paint and he's shooting 41 percent from 3-point range. He's carrying Wisconsin to a possible No. 1 seed. I understand upside issues, but after the above 12 guys are off the board, I think Kaminsky becomes close to a no-brainer pick.

 

14. Bobby Portis

 

Portis finally got his chance to shine against Kentucky's NBA-level front line, and he put up very Portis-like numbers: 15 points and 8 rebounds while shooting 6-for-11 from the field. Nothing jaw-dropping, just the same quiet production he's posted all season for Arkansas. On Saturday, he dropped 24 points and 15 rebounds against two other NBA athletes -- Jarrel Martin and Jordan Mickey of LSU. Portis might not steal many highlights, but the guy can really play.

 

15. Devin Booker

 

Scouts aren't necessarily concerned, but Booker's picture-perfect jump shot hasn't been tickling the nets the same way it was earlier in the season. Since the start of February, he's shot 12-for-40 from 3 (30 percent) with plenty of open looks. Teams are primarily interested in Booker for his shooting, and while no one is dissuaded about his shooting prowess, he needs to start hitting more shots to keep himself this high on the board.

 

16. Malik Pope

 

Pope hasn't really had much in the way of breakout games since he debuted at No. 25 on our Big Board a month ago. But he has drawn the attention of a number of NBA scouts and GMs, many of whom have traveled to San Diego State and come away with the same feedback: "He's not ready now, but when he does get ready -- look out." With the 76ers owning a draft pick in the late lottery to mid-first round, Pope seems ready made to be their guy. He's everything Sam Hinkie is looking for: A player who's long, athletic and, most importantly, a potential (emphasize potential) home run. After Okafor, Towns, Mudiay, Russell and Porzingis, there isn't a player in the draft with more upside than Pope. You're just going to have to be very, very patient with him.

 

17. Trey Lyles

 

Lyles has been a revelation for the Wildcats in three of their last four games. He had 18 points versus both Mississippi State and Arkansas and posted 14 points against Florida. Next to Towns, he's the best offensive big man on the team. What's special about Lyles is his sophisticated midrange game. He's money from 18 feet and is shooting an impressive 45 percent on his 2-point jumpers this season. More and more scouts are talking about Lyles potentially being Kentucky's fourth lottery pick in this draft.Lyles has been a revelation for the Wildcats in three of their last four games. He had 18 points versus both Mississippi State and Arkansas and posted 14 points against Florida. Next to Towns, he's the best offensive big man on the team. What's special about Lyles is his sophisticated midrange game. He's money from 18 feet and is shooting an impressive 45 percent on his 2-point jumpers this season. More and more scouts are talking about Lyles potentially being Kentucky's fourth lottery pick in this draft.

 

18. R.J. Hunter

 

Hunter's 3-point shot has been a disaster this season. After looking like he could be the second coming of Klay Thompson, he's shooting just 31 percent from deep (71-for-233). But that doesn't tell the whole story.He's averaging nearly 20 PPG along with a career-high 3.8 APG and 2.0 SPG. He's also gotten to the line 50 more times this season. Most of the scouts (and analytics people) I spoke with are still very high on him. "He's trying to do too much at Georgia State," one scout said. "Put him on the right team and I think he could be a dangerous player in the NBA."

 

19. Montrezl Harrell

 

I'm not sure there's much to write about Harrell other than to say that when he's focused, he's a beast attacking the rim and on the boards. What he lacks in size and shot selection (quit with the 3s, Montrezl), he makes up for in length, explosive athletic ability and toughness. He's been so steady over the years, bouncing between Nos. 12 to 20 on our Big Board, that it's easy to take him for granted.

 

20. Jakob Poeltl

 

We've had Poeltl hanging around the mid-first round all season despite a decidedly up-and-down campaign. Poeltl's appeal, like Pope's, comes from the upside of being a mobile 7-footer who can run the floor, crash the offensive glass and protect the rim. His body isn't NBA-ready, and he'd probably be better-served returning to Utah for his sophomore year, but he isn't going to slide too far if he declares. Some team will be willing to wait for him to be NBA-ready.

 

21. Jerian Grant

 

While everyone is on the Grant bandwagon this season, it's easy to forget that before he was suspended for academic reasons, he was actually having, across the board, an even better junior season at Notre Dame. Still, the long, athletic point guard has won his fair share of fans among scouts who believe that his versatility could make him an ideal guard coming off the bench at either the point or off-guard position at the next level.

 

22. Kris Dunn

 

Scouts have slowly been warming up to Dunn all season, and for good reason: He checks a lot of boxes. He has great size and length for his position, is a terrific athlete, sees the floor well and is a terror on the defensive end. He can be turnover-prone and isn't a great 3-point shooter, but there is a lot of talent there, and more and more scouts now see him as a potential late first-round steal.

 

23. Terry Rozier

 

With Chris Jones kicked off the team, Rozier has been asked to play more of a facilitator role, and the last three games Rozier has averaged six assists per game (up from 2.8 for the season) and nearly four steals per game. Rozier might never be a pure point guard, but his toughness, ability to hound players on the defensive end and his explosiveness getting to the rim remind some scouts of a young Kyle Lowry.

 

24. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

 

Hollis-Jefferson might not be able to shoot, but he continues to hang around in the 20s because he's so valuable defensively, gets points in so many other ways, and is such a tough rebounder and leader. Some scouts aren't in love with him. Others think he can be a Gerald Wallace-type player in the NBA someday.

 

25. Sam Dekker

 

Dekker's toughness, versatility and consistency are keeping him in the first-round mix. He hasn't had a dominant junior season, but scouts are so fond of him for all the little things he does, like Hollis-Jefferson, to make his team better.

 

26. Delon Wright

 

Wright is another senior who is drawing serious accolades this season despite the fact that he (arguably) was better as a junior. Wright averaged more points, rebounds, blocks, steals and shot a higher percentage from everywhere but the 3-point line last season.

 

27. Zhou Qi

 

As Pelton pointed out in our column last Friday, Qi is quietly putting up dominant numbers in China for a 19-year-old. Scouts loved him at the Nike Hoop Summit a year ago. He's another versatile big man who can shoot the ball and protect the rim. A major knock on him is his slight frame: He's so thin that he makes Poeltl look like Shaq. But if there's another international player worthy of rolling the dice on late in the first round, Qi might be the guy.

 

28. Tyus Jones

 

Jones continues to draw a split decision from NBA scouts. The analytics folks love him while the old-school scouts look at his lack of size and elite athletic ability and wonder what the deal is. He can really see the floor and is shooting the ball well this season, but the one thing that stands out about all the other point guards ranked above him is their size and/or athletic ability. Jones might see the floor better than any of them, but he doesn't have those two intangibles that scouts really look for.

 

29. Domantas Sabonis

 

Sabonis is the 13th freshman on our Big Board (you read that correctly). Add Mudiay, Porzingis, Hezonja and Qi to the mix (all the age of average college freshmen) and that number swells to 16. Sabonis comes off the bench for Gonzaga and does not do much that is flashy. But at 6-10, he's an appealing big man who rebounds and knows how to score at both the rim (he's shooting 76 percent for the season) and in the midrange game (48 percent on 2-point jumpers). Several international scouts swear he'd be a major steal this low in the draft.

 

30. Caris LeVert

 

LeVert has been out since Jan. 20 with a stress fracture, though he should be healthy enough to compete in draft workouts. While his junior year was solid, his passing and shooting ability could make him a hotter commodity than he shows right now as we get closer to the draft.

 

Next five in: Justin Anderson, GF, Virginia; Jarrell Martin, PF, LSU; Christian Wood, PF, UNLV; Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky; Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas

 

 

NCAA tournament's top 10 NBA prospects

 

NBA scouts are projected to get a long look at all the prospects on undefeated Kentucky during the NCAA tournament. But the list of top NBA prospects playing in March Madness doesn't end with the Wildcats.

 

"The guys projected at the top of the draft, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor and D'Angelo Russell, are really good," one NBA scout told Yahoo Sports. "There are also a lot of good point guards in this class. Overall, it's a decent class and no one will turn down their pick when NBA commissioner Adam Silver is on the podium."

 

Here's the top 10 NBA prospects to watch during the NCAA tournament.

 

1. Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky, PF/C, 7-0, 248, Fr. – Scout's comment: "He can score in the post, face and shoot and put it on the floor. There are not many players who can do all the things that he does."

 

2. Jahlil Okafor, Duke, C, 6-11, 272, Fr. – Scout's comment: "A solid center whose game will open up in the NBA. He has a strong low-post presence. His big body and big hands are also a plus."

 

3. D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State, PG/SG, 6-5, 180, Fr. – Scout's comment: "The best passer in college. He can defend both guard positions. His versatility could get him drafted over [guard] Emmanuel Mudiay."

 

4. Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky, C/PF, 7-0, 244, Jr. – Scout's comment: "He is a long rim-protecting big man. He is the leader of Kentucky. He reminds me a lot of Tyson Chandler. He is a pick-and-roll big man."

 

5. Stanley Johnson, Arizona, SF, 6-8, 243, Fr. – Scout's comment: "Has a great body and size for a small forward. Not a great shooter, but he can improve. He is a willing defender who makes the effort."

 

6. Justise Winslow, Duke, SF, 6-7, 229, Fr. – Scout's comment: "Great size and toughness. High ceiling, but is a third or fourth option on a team. Poor shooter. He can be Shane Battier or Metta World Peace, which is not a bad thing."

 

7. Myles Turner, Texas, C/PF, 6-11, 242, Fr. – Scout's comment: "His per-minutes stats are great. Strong rebounder. Blocks shots. Doesn't appear interested in playing in the post. Likes to shoot jumpers."

 

8. Kelly Oubre, Kansas, SF, 6-7, 200, Fr. – Scout's comment: "Really like his basketball IQ. He's very long for his position. Has the physical tools to become really good. Needs to improve his jumper."

 

9. Devin Booker, Kentucky, SG, 6-5, 205, Fr. – Scout's comment: "He has a really good and long jump shot. He works hard on his defense. He has very quick feet. This kid is really on the rise."

 

10. Tyus Jones, Duke, PG, PG, 6-1, 190, Fr. – Scout's comment: "He makes everyone better. He's little, but more athletic than I thought. He can really pass the basketball and he makes long shots."

 

Honorable mention: Arizona PF Brandon Ashley, Jr.; Wisconsin SF Sam Dekker, Jr.; Notre Dame PG Jerian Grant, Sr.; Louisville PF Montrezl Harrell, Jr.; Wisconsin PF Nigel Hayes, So.; Kentucky C Dakari Johnson, So.; UCLA SF/PF Kevon Looney, Fr.; Wisconsin C Frank Kaminsky, Sr.; Kentucky PF Trey Lyles, Fr.; Arkansas PF Bobby Portis, So.; Utah PG/SG Delon Wright, Sr.

[NBASupes]

 

Top prospects in Midwest Region

 

The Midwest region is, arguably, the region in the NCAA tournament most loaded with NBA prospects. Kentucky having eight 2015 NBA draft prospects has a lot to do with that. Overall, the Midwest side of the bracket features four lottery prospects, an additional eight first-rounders and several intriguing sleepers from mid-major schools.

 

Insider's NBA draft team has talked to multiple NBA scouts and GMs over the course of the season. Based on their feedback and information, here's a look at the top NBA prospects for each of the teams in the Midwest Region, listed by potential lottery picks, first-rounders, second-rounders and "wait until next year" players. (Teams listed by seed.)

 

1. Kentucky Wildcats

 

Potential lottery picks: Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Fr.; Willie Cauley-Stein, F/C, Jr.

Potential first-rounders: Devin Booker, SG, Fr.; Trey Lyles, F, Fr.; Dakari Johnson, C, So.

Potential second-rounders: Andrew Harrison, G, So.; Aaron Harrison, SG, So.; Alex Poythress, F, Jr.

Wait until next year: Tyler Ulis, PG, Fr.; Marcus Lee, PF, So.

 

It's no surprise to find that a team that is 34-0 and embarking on what could be a historic undefeated season is loaded with NBA prospects. However, I think many would be surprised to learn that Kentucky has just two surefire lottery picks.

 

Towns is strongly in the mix for the No. 1 pick in the draft despite averaging less than 10 PPG for Kentucky. He's big, mobile, can score both in the paint and facing the basket, and he's proved to be an elite shot-blocker and rebounder this season. Prospects like him don't come along often.

 

Cauley-Stein is still a work in progress offensively, but he's one of the most unique defensive prospects to come along in a while. It's not an exaggeration to say that Cauley-Stein, despite standing 7 feet tall, can completely shut down all five positions on the floor. There are 30 NBA coaches who want to sign up for that. He should fall somewhere between picks Nos. 6 and 12.

 

Two more freshmen, Booker and Lyles, are on the lottery bubble. Booker is widely regarded by scouts as the best 3-point shooter in the draft. Scouts are hoping he turns into a Klay Thompson-type player down the road. Lyles also has a chance to go in the late lottery, as a combo forward with a killer midrange jumper. They're both in the 12-to-20 range.

 

The rest of Kentucky's top eight players are all draftable, though none project to be stars in the pros. Johnson has the size and body to be a terrific backup center and could sneak into the first round. The Harrison twins would be much higher if their shot selection and shooting percentages were better. Andrew, especially, has played much better toward the end of the season, and another strong tournament could push him back into consideration for the first round. He has great size for his position and is a terrific defender. Poythress has been injured most of the season and faces a tough choice about whether to return to school for his senior year or head to the NBA draft without a guarantee he'll be drafted.

 

The two players who should be locks to stick around are Ulis and Lee. Ulis' high basketball IQ, speed and tenacity on defense make him attractive despite his small stature. He's a potential first-rounder in 2016. Lee has tons of NBA potential, but he's the rawest player of the group and a long way from contributing in the NBA.

 

2. Kansas Jayhawks

 

Potential lottery pick: Kelly Oubre, G/F, Fr.

Potential first-rounder: Cliff Alexander, PF, Fr.

Potential second-rounders: Wayne Selden, G/F, So.; Perry Ellis, PF, Jr.; Jamari Traylor, PF, Jr.

Wait until next year: Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, SG, Fr.; Brannen Greene, G/F, So

 

It's amazing that Kansas has accomplished what it's accomplished given the unusual dearth of elite NBA talent in Lawrence this season.

 

Oubre is the team's best NBA prospect, though he doesn't always look like it. When he's aggressive, he can be lethal both shooting the basketball and taking it to the hoop. And the best part is that Bill Self has turned him into a much more aggressive defender. There's major upside there, though he's still a work in progress. He should go somewhere between Nos. 6 and 12.

 

Alexander was projected as a top-10 pick before the season but has struggled to put it all together and is now benched while the NCAA investigates whether his family took illegal benefits. He has an NBA body, athleticism and can be a beast on the boards, but his offensive game and basketball IQ are both pretty slim. He's in the 20-to-35 range now and would benefit greatly from returning for another season if the NCAA doesn't rule him ineligible.

 

Selden also once was projected as a mid-first-round pick. However, he almost slid out of our Top 100 as the season went on. If he plays like he did in the last two games of the Big 12 tournament, then his stock will rise dramatically. NBA teams want to see him attacking the basket more and settling for his shaky jump shot less. As of now, however, he's probably a late second-rounder at best. Ditto for Ellis. His production has been solid all season but he lacks NBA size, athleticism and, overall, an elite NBA skill. He's the Jayhawks' best player, but his game just doesn't translate very well to the next level. Traylor might get a look because of his length, athleticism and defense, but offensively, he's still a work in progress.

 

Several of KU's bench players are interesting down-the-road prospects. Many scouts believe Mykhailiuk (who is 17 and ineligible for the 2015 draft) might be the best pro prospect on the team. But he plays limited minutes for the Jayhawks at the moment. Look for him to be a potential lottery pick in 2016. Greene's shooting stroke will keep him in the mix if he gets more minutes next season.

 

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

 

Potential first-rounders: Jerian Grant, PG, Sr.; Demetrius Jackson, PG, So.

Potential second-rounder: Zach Auguste, C, Jr.

Wait until next year: Bonzie Colson, F, Fr.

 

Jerian Grant continues to be one of the more intriguing prospects in the draft. He's got NBA size, athleticism, can get wherever he wants to on the floor, sees the court very well and plays in attack mode all the time. His age and his hot-and-cold jump shot hold him back a little, but after Emmanuel Mudiay and Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell, he might be the best point guard prospect in the draft. He's in the 15-to-25 range on most NBA teams' draft boards. A big game versus Kentucky, assuming an Elite Eight matchup, would clearly solidify his spot.

 

Jackson is also having a terrific sophomore season. He too has great athleticism, toughness and floor leadership skills. His assists are down because he shares the floor with Grant, but most teams are convinced he'd be a very good NBA point guard in the Eric Bledsoe-type mold. He's been on the first-round bubble most of the season, but a breakout tournament could secure a place for him in the first round.

 

Auguste has the size and athleticism to intrigue scouts, but his lack of elite rebounding or shot-blocking skills keep him as more of a bubble second-rounder. He's going to be seriously sweating a potential Kentucky matchup in the Elite Eight.

 

Colson is a crazy-long (he has a 7-foot wingspan) forward who makes up for a lack of size and explosive leaping ability with basketball IQ, instincts, long arms, great hands, toughness and a nonstop motor. He's a unique prospect who is an exception to the rule, but scouts are intrigued and expect big things from him as a sophomore.

 

4. Maryland Terrapins

 

Potential first-rounder: Jake Layman, F, Jr.

Potential second-rounder: Dez Wells, SG, Sr.

Wait until next year: Melo Trimble, PG, Fr.

 

Layman actually has gotten some looks from NBA scouts in the first round this season. He's an NBA-caliber athlete who can score on the wing and reminds some scouts of Chandler Parsons. He's just been maddeningly inconsistent all season -- and pretty much throughout his entire college career. The talent is there, but can it show up on a nightly basis? He's in the 25-to-40 range.

 

Wells is intriguing. He's not a volume shooter from the perimeter, but he's shot 50 percent from 3 this season. He's very athletic, attacks the rim and can even play some point in a pinch. He's the type of guy who could get hot in the tournament and push his draft stock up into the high second round.

 

Trimble has been one of the best freshman point guards in the country. He shoots it well from 3, sees the floor and has been clutch. He should be a potential first-rounder down the road -- I just don't think it will be this year.

 

5. West Virginia Mountaineers

 

Potential second-rounder: Juwan Staten, PG, Sr.

 

Staten got some looks as a late first-round pick after his junior season, but he hasn't really capitalized on that draft buzz as a senior. His numbers are down across the board. His shooting percentage has plummeted. Ditto for his rebounds and assists. He's now on the second-round bubble.

 

6. Butler Bulldogs

 

Potential second-rounder: Kellen Dunham, SG, Jr.

 

With the success of the Splash Brothers in Golden State, NBA scouts are putting more value than ever on elite shooters, and Dunham is one of the three or four best shooters in college basketball. He's especially effective shooting off the dribble, though he can be a lethal spotting up as well. He's a potential second-round pick if he declares this year.

 

7. Wichita State Shockers

 

Potential first-rounder: Ron Baker, G, Jr.

Potential second-rounder: Fred VanVleet, PG, Jr.

 

Ever since a breakout NCAA tournament as a freshman, Baker has been sitting squarely on the first-round bubble. Many scouts believe he can make the transition to the point at the NBA level. Others question whether he has the quickness to make the leap. He shoots the ball really well, plays with a high basketball IQ and rarely turns the ball over. He's in the 25-to-40 range right now.

 

VanVleet is one of the best point guards in the country and another favorite of the analytics crowd. He's quick, sees the floor well and can shoot it from deep. However, he lacks elite size and length for his position. He's a second-rounder right now, though if he leads Wichita State deep into the tournament again, there are enough scouts who like him that he could sneak into the late first round.

 

8. Cincinnati Bearcats

 

Potential second-rounder: Octavius Ellis, F/C, Jr.

 

Defense is Ellis' calling card, as he's a great rebounder and rim-protector. He's got great size, he's a gifted athlete and, after having some off-the-court and on-the-court issues, he seems to have settled down. He's a bubble second-rounder right now, but size rises as we get closer to the draft, and he's intriguing as a potential first-round pick.

 

9. Purdue Boilermakers

 

Potential second-rounder: A.J. Hammons, C, Jr.

Wait until next year: Isaac Haas, C, Fr.; Vince Edwards, F, Fr.

 

Hammons is having essentially the same season he had as a freshman and sophomore, which is troubling. The talent is clearly there. So is the size and unique mobility for a big man. But where is the production? He's a very good shot-blocker but the rest of his game still lacks polish, keeping him firmly in the mid-second round.

 

Haas might be an even more interesting prospect down the road. He's huge and has played very well as a freshman. He's not ready either, but if Hammons jumps to the NBA, Haas will get more minutes and could push his way into the first round in 2016. Edwards is having an up-and-down freshman campaign, but the swingman can score the basketball in a variety of ways, and scouts expect him to make a big leap as a sophomore.

 

10. Indiana Hoosiers

 

Potential second-rounders: Troy Williams, F, So.; Yogi Ferrell, PG, Jr.

Wait until next year: James Blackmon Jr., SG, Fr.

 

Scouts want to fall in love with Williams. He's such an incredible athlete -- one of the best in the entire draft. That shows up the best on the defensive end where he can be a lockdown defender. But the big question is about his jump shot. In Williams' defense, it's been much better this season, and he's shot 41 percent from 3 (in limited attempts) and a very respectable 45 percent on 2-point jumpers. If he can get going, he has the potential to be one of the guys who makes a big leap on the draft board.

 

When Ferrell gets going, he can be one of the best point guards in the country. His turnovers have dropped this season, and his shooting percentages have nudged up across the board. While he has the requisite quickness to play in the NBA, his diminutive size hurts his draft stock. But they said the same thing about Shabazz Napier before last year's tournament, and look what happened to him: He put UConn on his back all the way to the title, and he ended up being picked by the Heat in the first round. Ferrell is going to need that kind of crazy run, however, to get looks in the first round of the draft. That first-round matchup against Wichita State and VanVleet will be terrific, as both are elite point guards facing the same draft-related questions about their size.

 

Blackmon was quietly one of the best freshmen in the country this season. He is a lights-out shooter who can score from anywhere on the floor. The question is whether Blackmon has the size or elite athleticism to be an NBA 2 guard.

 

11. Texas Longhorns

 

Potential lottery pick: Myles Turner, F/C, Fr.

Potential second-rounders: Isaiah Taylor, PG, So.; Jonathan Holmes, F, Sr.; Cameron Ridley, C, Jr.

 

Turner is maddeningly inconsistent. When he's good, he looks like a top-five pick; he's an athletic, mobile big man who can protect the rim, rebound, run the floor and knock down 3s. When he's bad, he just disappears, hanging out in the corners waiting for someone to pass him the ball. Right now NBA scouts are banking on the good Turner. They think he's been misused at Texas and will immediately be better in the pros. The detractors question his toughness, motor and his awkward gait. He's one of the more polarizing players in the draft but should go in the 6-to-12 range.

 

Taylor was considered a potential first-rounder coming into the season, but an early injury derailed him and he (and the Longhorns) never quite recovered. He's one of the quickest point guards in the draft and can score and facilitate. A big tournament would immediately put him back into the conversation as a first-round pick.

 

Ridley was once a top-10 high school recruit who just never seems to have turned the corner. He's big and physical but plays below the rim and doesn't do enough to warrant more than second-round consideration right now. Holmes started the season strong but struggled in Big 12 play and lost virtually all of his draft momentum. He'll likely be playing pro ball in Europe or the D-League.

 

12. Buffalo Bulls

 

No current NBA prospects

 

13. Valparaiso Crusaders

 

No current NBA prospects

 

14. Northeastern Huskies

 

No current NBA prospects

 

15. New Mexico State Aggies

 

No current NBA prospects

 

16. Manhattan Jaspers/Hampton Pirates

 

No current NBA prospects

 

 

Top prospects in West Region

 

This year, the talent in the West Region nearly matches that of the Midwest. Four players are considered potential lottery picks, and five others look like potential first-rounders.

 

Insider's NBA draft team has talked to multiple NBA scouts and GMs over the course of the season. Based on their feedback and information, here's a look at the top NBA prospects for each of the teams in the West Region, listed by potential lottery picks, first-rounders, second-rounders and "wait until next year" players. (Teams listed by seed.) On Monday, we identified the NBA prospects in the Midwest Region.

 

This year, the talent in the West Region nearly matches that of the Midwest. Four players are considered potential lottery picks, and five others look like potential first-rounders.

 

Insider's NBA draft team has talked to multiple NBA scouts and GMs over the course of the season. Based on their feedback and information, here's a look at the top NBA prospects for each of the teams in the West Region, listed by potential lottery picks, first-rounders, second-rounders and "wait until next year" players. (Teams listed by seed.) On Monday, we identified the NBA prospects in the Midwest Region.

 

1. Wisconsin Badgers

 

Lottery picks: Frank Kaminsky, C, Sr.

Potential first-rounders:Sam Dekker, F, Jr.; Nigel Hayes, F, So.

 

It's not every year that Wisconsin has three potential NBA players on the roster at the same time. Kaminsky, along with Duke's Jahlil Okafor, has been one of the best players in the country this season. He's a unique 5 who is comfortable playing both on the perimeter and in the paint. He has legitimate 3-point range on his jumper, and he is talented putting the ball on the floor from the high post and attacking the rim. He's a solid rebounder and shot-blocker as well. While he's mobile, his lack of explosive athleticism and strength put his ceiling quite a bit lower than Okafor's. Nevertheless, scouts continue to warm to him, and he now looks to be in the No. 10 to 15 range on most draft boards.

 

Dekker has been a favorite of scouts since his freshman year, though his development seems to have stalled a bit. Still, he's a tough, versatile forward who can score in multiple ways and defend two positions on the floor. He's in the No. 20 to 35 range on our board.

 

Hayes has been picking up momentum of late. He's a bit undersized for his position, but he's got long arms, has improved as a shooter and has NBA athleticism. He's coming off a terrific Big Ten tournament, and some scouts now have him in front of Dekker on their boards. If he keeps playing well in the tournament, he should be a first-round lock.

 

2. Arizona Wildcats

 

Lottery picks: Stanley Johnson, G/F, Fr.

Potential first-rounders: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, G/F, So.

Potential second-rounders: Brandon Ashley, F, Jr.; Kaleb Tarczewski, C, Jr.

 

Johnson might be a freshman on an elite team surrounded by upperclassmen, but when the game is on the line, head coach Sean Miller isn't afraid to give him the ball. Johnson's best attribute might be his fearlessness. He has a NBA body, is as tough as nails, and can score from anywhere on the floor. As far as NBA readiness goes, he could step in and play right now in the league. He's in the mix with Justise Winslow, Kelly Oubre and Croatia's Mario Hezonja to be the top wing off the board. However, he's not an elite athlete, is an inconsistent defender and struggles to finish at the rim and thus sits slightly below all of them on our Big Board. His range is No. 6 to 12 right now.

 

Hollis-Jefferson might be the best wing defender in the draft. He's an elite athlete who can shut down players from four positions. His problem is generating offense. He's an elite finisher at the basket, but his jump shot is broken right now. Until he gets that fixed, he's looking at the second half of the first round if he declares.

 

Ashley and Tarczewski are potential second-round prospects. Ashley is a bit of a tweener and has earned the "soft" label from scouts. He's athletic and can stretch the floor, but they want to see him play more in the paint. Tarczewski, despite having an NBA body and athleticism, lacks consistency and toughness. Big tournaments for each of them could push up their draft stock because both are very, very talented.

 

3. Baylor Bears

 

Potential second-rounders: Rico Gathers, PF, Jr.; Taurean Prince, SF, Jr.

 

Gathers looks more like a first-round pick in the NFL draft than an NBA player. But his incredible strength and rebounding ability will get him a long look in the second round by NBA teams. Rebounding is the one stat that typically translates from college to the pros, and there are few players in college basketball better at crashing the boards than Gathers.

 

Prince's primary calling card is on the defensive end, where he can guard multiple positions. As an offensive player, he can shoot the three and finish at the rim. He'd be unlikely to be drafted if he declared this year, but a big tournament could change that.

 

4. North Carolina Tar Heels

 

Potential first-rounders: Justin Jackson, G/F, Fr.

Potential second-rounders:Brice Johnson, PF, Jr.; Kennedy Meeks, C, So.; J.P. Tokoto, F, Jr.; Marcus Paige, G, Jr.; Joel James, C, Jr.

Wait until next year: Theo Pinson, G/F, Fr.; Isaiah Hicks, PF, So.; Joel Berry, PG, Fr.

 

The Tar Heels are loaded with elite NBA prospects this year. Jackson, a freshman, has the most long-term NBA potential. He's a long, lanky swingman who possesses an incredible midrange game and floater. His 3-point game has been shaky this season, though he's shot it better lately. Jackson has been much more consistent in February and early March and a breakout tournament could push him into the middle or end of the first round.

 

Johnson is having a great junior season. He's long and athletic, but his thin frame and so-so rebounding numbers give scouts pause. Meeks has been dominant down low as a rebounder and low-post scorer, but he lacks elite athletic ability and plays below the rim. Both players have a really good chance of hearing their names called in the second round if they declared. Tokoto is another potential second-rounder. Offensively he's not very dominant, but he's an elite athlete and perimeter defender who can guard multiple positions on the floor.

 

Paige looked like a potential first-round pick coming into the season, but he's slumped all season offensively and his draft stock has taken a major hit. If you go a little deeper, however, his 3-point shooting has improved and his assist-to-turnover ratio has as well. It's still not out of the question that he's a second-round pick with a great tournament. James looks like a NBA big man, though he's rarely lived up to his potential on the court.

 

Pinson was an elite recruit who is just stuck in a minutes logjam at UNC. A foot injury suffered in late January has kept him out most of the past five weeks, though he should be available during the tournament. He's a potential first-round pick in 2016. Hicks is a long, athletic power forward who has been squeezed by minutes. If Johnson and/or Meeks declare, he'll see more time next season, and he could be an intriguing second-round pick. Berry is small, but he's a pure point guard who sees the floor really well. He's not an elite prospect right now, but a potential second-round pick next season.

 

5. Arkansas Razorbacks

 

Lottery picks: Bobby Portis, PF, So.

Potential second-rounders: Michael Qualls, SG, Jr.

 

Portis has quietly had one of the best sophomore campaigns in the country. While he isn't dominant at any one thing, there's very little he can't do. He can score from anywhere on the floor, can guard multiple positions, and he rebounds and blocks shots. He's just not particularly flashy. He's should fall somewhere in the No. 13 to 20 range.

 

Qualls is an elite athlete and defender and, lately, has been Arkansas' second-best scorer. If he can prove to scouts he can consistently knock down the NBA 3, there will be a lot of interest there. Right now he's on the second-round bubble, but there's first-round-type talent there.

 

6. Xavier Musketeers

 

Potential second-rounders: Jalen Reynolds, PF, So.

 

Reynolds has the body and athleticism of a NBA power forward prospect, but he doesn't have the production to match yet. He's a good rebounder and solid shot-blocker, but he's already 22 years old, and given how raw he is, that's a major red flag.

 

7. Virginia Commonwealth Rams

 

Potential second-rounders: Treveon Graham, G/F, Sr.

 

He's tough, physical, can shoot the 3 and attack the basket, and he's one of the best rebounders on the team. Graham has been consistently mentioned as a potential second-rounder since his sophomore season at VCU. His talent might have topped out a bit since then, but there's no question he has a NBA body and toughness and can hurt you in a bunch of ways. He's still a bubble second-rounder who could help himself with a strong tournament.

 

Briante Weber would also be on this list had he not torn his ACL and MCL in late January. He's out for the rest of the season. Offensively, he was never much of a standout, but he was injured just 12 steals shy of breaking the NCAA record. He's a defensive nightmare for opposing point guards, and I could see a team taking him late in the second round.

 

8. Oregon Ducks

 

Potential second-rounders: Joseph Young, SG, Sr.

Wait until next year: Jordan Bell, PF, Fr.

 

Young, surprisingly, won Pac-12 Player of the Year this season, and he is one of the single best scoring guards in the country. He's super quick, can get any shot he wants and is fearless taking them. He's been running some point this season for Oregon, which has helped his NBA stock some, however most scouts see him as a volume shooting extremely undersized 2-guard. I'm not sure, even with a crazy-great NCAA tournament, that he can play his way in to the first round.

 

Bell is a prototypical lanky, athletic shot-blocker. If he can add strength this summer and some polish to his offensive game, he's got a chance of being a first-round pick down the road.

 

9. Oklahoma St. Cowboys

 

Potential second-rounders: Le'Bryan Nash, F, Sr.

 

Nash was a top-10 recruit coming out of high school that drew comparisons to a young Ron Artest. He never really lived up to the hype at Oklahoma State, taking a back seat to Marcus Smart during his sophomore and junior seasons. He's having his best season as a senior, but he's still a tweener -- too short to be an effective power forward and lacking the perimeter or ballhandling skills to make the transition to the 3 in the NBA. He's a possible, but probably unlikely, second-round pick.

 

10. Ohio State Buckeyes

 

Lottery picks: D'Angelo Russell, G, Fr.

Potential second-rounders: Shannon Scott, PG, Sr.

 

Russell has challenged Okafor as the best freshman in the country this season, and he is in the running for the No. 1 pick in the draft. He's a unique prospect who sees the floor like a point guard, but he is a considerable scoring threat from anywhere on the floor. He reminds me a bit of James Harden. He's a smooth athlete with unlimited range on his jumper. He lacks NBA strength and explosive athleticism, but the basketball IQ is so high, it doesn't really affect his game.

 

Scott is a steady point guard who has taken a backseat to Russell his senior season. His assist-to-turnover ratio is at an all-time high, but his poor shooting and size are both major liabilities.

 

11. BYU Cougars/Ole Miss Rebels

 

Potential second-rounders: Kyle Collinsworth, G, Jr; Tyler Haws, G/F, Sr.

 

BYU has two prospects worth mentioning. Collinsworth has been a triple-double machine all season (six triple-doubles and three more near-triple-doubles). He has intriguing size for his position, an incredibly high basketball IQ and is an elite rebounder for his position. His lack of explosive athletic ability and his inconsistent jumper are the things holding him back from being a lock to be drafted.

 

Haws is one of the best scorers in the country. He's a clever wing who uses all the tricks in the book to get his shot off every night. Unfortunately, he lacks elite size, athleticism or skills to be a NBA pro. There really isn't one thing he does at an elite level, he's just very good at everything. From talking to scouts it seems more likely he'll have a terrific career in Europe.

 

12. Wofford Terriers

 

No current NBA prospects.

 

13. Harvard Crimson

 

Potential second-rounders: Wesley Saunders, SG, Sr; Siyani Chambers, PG, Jr.

 

Saunders isn't necessarily an elite prospect, but his high basketball IQ, ability to scorer from everywhere on the floor and his physicality make him sort of a poor man's Paul Pierce. I've had a number of scouts say he's one of the more intriguing mid-major players in the country. Chambers was highly regarded by scouts as well as a freshman, but has seen his production hit the wall as a sophomore and junior.

 

14. Georgia St. Panthers

 

Potential first-rounder: R.J. Hunter, SG, Jr.

 

Hunter is one of the more intriguing prospects in this region. After a stellar sophomore season and a terrific summer, many scouts had him as a lottery pick in the mold of a young Klay Thompson. His jump shot really failed him this season, as defenses keyed in on Hunter and he took more and more difficult shots. However, he made up for it in other ways. He's handed out more assists, picked up more steals and still found a way to increase his scoring average to 20 points per game.

 

Several teams still believe he has lottery talent. Others have him in the late first round. We've sort of split the difference keeping him in the late teens. A big tournament game against Baylor in the first round could really help him.

 

15. Texas Southern Tigers

 

No current NBA prospects.

 

16. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

 

No current NBA prospects.