Paul's "D"...Pgs Shoot 8%Higher/Score 3.4 PPG More

[Guest Walter]

I visited Hawksquawk with the idea of posting this as the upcoming draft is perhaps the most important draft in at least the last 20 years. I see the conversation has brought it up. Anyhow,...

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There was some talk recently about Bogut's defense being weak because he is not a pure shot blocker. After watching the Oklahoma game I think the contrary is true. I've also watched many Wake Forest games. I think the opposite sentiment applies to Chris Paul. Although he is good at getting steals, like many one dimensional defenders he is not a good defender.

Below is Wake Forest's ACC season broken down. I am comparing the FG% and PPG of the player facing opposite Paul to their season average. If Paul is a good defender, particularly one worthy of top pick consideration, he will demonstrate so by holding his opponenets to a lower FG% and PPG average than their season average in each category. The Maryland game was not included as I couldn't get it linked via nbadraft.net. The Duke senior game did not start Ewing, but he was considered the Pg for the game. I will break it down by player then overall. Where questionable, Pgs were determined by height (under 6'?) or if height was comperable regarding guards on a team, a greater APG average (Harris of UM, Robinson of Clemson). I averaged the opponent Pg season FG% by adding FG% (twice if they faced Paul twice, once if...) and coming up with the average this way.

Player___Gms FG% PPG

Jack 2 57.7 23

Season 51.4 15.5

Bannister 2 36.4 9

Season 29.0 4.3

Ewing 2 46.7 9

Season 42.6 15.2

Harris 2 50.0 21

Season 38.2 12.4

Galloway 2 61.5 10.5

Season 43.0 6.1

Robinson 1 60.0 10

Season 40.8 10.8

Gordon 1 53.3 22

Season 41.6 10.9

Atsur 2 50.0 7.5

Season 40.0 9.2

Felton 1 27.7 16

Season 45.8 12.6

Overall______FG% PPG

Against Paul 49.0 14.2

For Season 41.0 10.8

In otherwords, ACC Pgs averaged shooting 8% higher and scoring 3.4 PPG more against Paul than they did for the season. Considering that their non-conference schedule would likely be against easier competition and that should improve their season stats, guards opposing Paul did EVEN BETTER against him relative to their season averages than the stats indicate.

Chris Paul averaged only 15.3 PPG and 45.1% shooting himself so statistically, given his being a defensive liability in terms of FG% and scoring, opposing guards were a push shooting 4% better than he while scoring only 1.1 PPG less against him.

Does this make Paul not a good Pg? No. He can still pass and run an offense very well, better than the majority if not all of these guys. My point isn't he's not a very good Pg. My point is that defensively he is a one-dimensional steals specialist, approaching VERY weak defensively overall. He is a player that makes everyone better, true, but that includes the opposition's Pg especially. On a team like Wake Forest that struggled defensively all season long it should not be a surprise that it's leader was so weak defensively. However, good you think Paul is, his defense is NOT top pick caliber.

It's too easy to see a guard get steals or a big man not be a "pure" shot blocker and claim the first is and the second isn't a good defender. In this case the truth is the contrary.

W

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Link to the whole thread below ...I think you'll notice there is no credible response to the reality these facts demonstrate. Paul is a very likable guy (we all know the low blow was out of character) and good player. However, his defense shouldn't get a pass because we may like guy. He will not grow any taller and his arms won't grow any longer. He's what he is and in this case that means defensively he's a significantly liability at even the college level against ACC Pgs.

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=355309

W

[Wurider05]

Good thread dude. I am glad that you have some evidence to support it. Alot of these guys wonder why alot of these sure-caliber superstar college players bust in the NBA. If you guys can remember Jay Williams wasn't exactly burning things up in the league before the accident. Too many posters fall for the hype. We can't build a team on hype we can't afford to blow a pick not now. I say we get the point guard who has had the most consistency throughout their collegiate career.

[Traceman]

BUT I think that any statistics relating to Wake Forest's defense are somewhat skewed. NO ONE on that team seems to play much D for very long and I think that is directly related to their coach's philosophy. It was almost painful watching them let WVU get wide open shot after shot down the stretch in that game. It is CLEAR that defense was not a point of emphasis for that team all season.

The bottom line is that while I think Paul will certainly struggle guarding some of the bigger PGs in the NBA, I think he can be a decent NBA defender (no worse than Steve Nash, Mike Bibby, Jason Williams, TJ Ford, etc ) while bringing top notch offensive skills to the table. If Bogut and Williams are gone, I wouldn't be upset if BK took him with the 3rd pick.