gurpilo

The issue is simple for me, OKC pick and Parsons can get you a starting center on Adams on a bad contract for a year and a half. Get it done.

we don’t need Gallo for half a season that is already lost, a first is better value.

I am losing my faith to make a trade that will change the team, in fact I think is not a good idea, I want a shot at Wiseman.

However I really think we are going to sign good players this offseason that will elevate the performance of this team, I am starting to like some FAs this year, not stars but good player to build a team.

hace 54 minutos, NBASupes dijo:

They have interest in bringing back Teague. I would imagine they would. 

The guys most important is Cam and DeAndre. The rest are before them. The only player I worry about an overpay is Kevin Huerter. Guys like him are hard to find and so valuable around the league. While John is someone teams would like it add, no one sees him as an overpay guy. He's probably in the same tier as Sabonis and Turner. Guys you pay 20 million per or less. Nothing more. 

That is right that is why now is the time to sign guys to medium term contracts and make a strong team, surround our young guys with valuable vets

hace 13 horas, thecampster dijo:

 

2 points -

1) Trae will be getting a max contract in 2.5 years. Collins will be getting a max or near max contract in 1.5 years.

2) The max cap at 6 or less years is 25% of the cap, > 6 years = 30% of the cap.

 

So lets tackle Trae and Collins first.

Even though it will be higher in 22 and 23, we will use the projected cap for 2021-2022 season for all numbers. $125 million/$151 (LT).  Although the cap is going to be $116 million next year, there is an inherent increase of the cap 1 and 2 years after that minimizing the effect of signings at max this year.

 

Drummond will be eligible for 30% of the cap next year max or starting at 34.8 million next year.

Trae and Collins would be eligible for 25% of the next cap starting at 31,25 million 2 years from now for Collins and 3 years from now for Trae.

Let's assume you give Trae the max and 90% of the max to Collins or $31.25 million and $28.125 million.  Also remembering you will have to resign Huerter, Reddish and Cam within 4 years. Let's also assume at this point the LT and not the Cap becomes the sticking point in 23-24 when all have to be signed.  You have $59.375 million tied up in Collins and Trae. If you gave Drummond the max you're well over $90 million for 3 players, leaving only $61 million for 12 other players to avoid the LT and this is the time frame you are projecting you are a top 4 team going after the championship.  It is my opinion you have to allow closer to $70 million for those other 12 players (minimum).  So simple math is 151-$59-Center = $70 million.  $92 million - Center = $70 million.  In this case, you would have to spend $22 million for a Center in 23-24 maximum in order to avoid the LT.  So the Hawks and Drummond are probably $8 million per season or about $32 million total apart.

 

All numbers are assumptions on my part and dependent on the cap beyond 21-22 and the development of all players/pick slotting, etc.

 

 

 

Ummm considering that next 3 years Hunter, Reddish and most likely next year 2 picks will be part of the core in rookie contracts adding Young and Collins on Max contract and Huerter in a reasonable contract, that is a core of 7 players with roughly 90 million , you still have 40 million to sign 5 players. I see perfectly possible signing Drummond to a 4 year contract 100million $ front loaded with last year been a team option. That way you can choose and sign Cam or Hunter to good contracts or chose Drummond. 8 players with 4 slots to add rotation players at 15 million $

I think a 4 year offer front loaded could be a good solution to land Drummond. I still think he is the best center available and he would be a fantastic addition for us.

hace 2 horas, AHF dijo:

Noel isn't as good as Adams this season by a number of metrics such as WAR and RAPTOR.  I do like Noel but think the weight is a big issue for him in handling big bodies.  Thus, I like him a lot in the role he is playing for OKC where they simply don't match him up against big bodies.  It puts him in a position to succeed and it inflates his per minutes numbers well above where they would be if he was a team's leading center, IMO.  I'd hate to have to pick between Collins and Noel to match up against someone with a lot of weight / strength in that situation.

By those same metrics (WAR/RAPTOR), Adams is also better than Drummond this season.  The big thing I disagree with you on with Drummond is that he can be had for the "same price."

Drummond will end up with a much longer contract.  If he gets what he wants, it will be something more akin to a $120M+ at 4 years or $150M over 5 years.  If he gets something closer to his actual value, he will still likely get $100M+.  Adams is on the hook for a single season after this one.  That is a big deal, IMO.

All of these guys are upgrades on our current situation, however, so I won't be crying if we got Noel or Ibaka, etc. 

VORP, BPM, WS are better for Noel and I think he played well yesterday against Vucevic, he played well and OKC won without Adams

hace 13 minutos, AHF dijo:

Neither Noel nor Ibaka have the strength to hold up against big centers.  Neither Wood nor Thompson have the size.  They are all also UFAs and can walk.  They all seem to overlap more with situations where we would play JC at C.  Will be very interested to see the pricing on these guys in FA.  Pretty wide range of potential values. 

With Drummond, the issue is he is an UFA and can simply walk.  He can also demand a huge salary on a 5 year deal if you trade for him.  You better be certain you want him here for the long haul at that price if you are trading assets for him.

I think the big attraction for Adams is certainty that he is on your roster next year and very solid defense from him with decent contributions.  Some of the advanced stats absolutely love him and I'm not that high but he just seems like a good guy to add for team growth to me.

Umm perhaps I did not explain well my reasoning. I don’t think we need to trade for any center now. I think we need to wait till FAgency and sign one. I think we should go after Noel, Ibaka and Drummond because I think they are the best options. Noel and Ibaka should be cheaper than Adams and better fits and Drummond is a better player and I think can be had at the same price. Advanced stats tell you that Drummond and Adams have similar stats and Drummond never played with a true PG, removing isolation from his game he would be an absolute stud, he does not need to score a lot with Young and Collins on the team. Noel is simply outplaying Adams at OKC no matter what stat you look. Ibaka is a real good fit for our game.

shockingly there is only 3 cm of height advantage for Adams compared to Drummond and Noel, true that Noel does not have the weight but we have seen he can defend big centers.

Adams is not even the best fit at center for us. This FA class provides centers that are at least as good as Adams.

Cheaper options and better fits as Noel, Baynes, Ibaka, Wood or Thompson, equal value same money as Drummond and Whiteside. in my opinion I would prefer Drummond over Adams and definitely Noel or Ibaka over Adams. There is absolutely no need to lose an asset for Adams. 
 

on the other hand Gallo may impact Hunter and Reddish development, I am sorry but I am not ready to give up on them. SG position is other history, probably we need a reliable option there that is not a liability in defense, Joe Harris would be perfect.

Supes, if Adams is unlikely, who is our target at Center? Which players do we want?

That is not a foul from Hunter

well, 4th quarter, down by 2, good game so far

Is incredible we are up on rebounding by 2, we are really bad at it and is showing today clearly. Already 12 TO, Trae, Reddish, Huerter have been robbed a lot. 
 

difficult to understand also how Tor has 14 shots more than us.... 9 offensive rebounds by Tor.... we are shooting great and Toronto is awful today.

good games from Hunter and Bruno, young guys growing, team competing against Tor, good feeling.... but those flaws are so evident, rebounding and defense need to improve urgently.

hace 9 horas, JTB dijo:

I would say Myles Turner is the best fit out there for us but absolutely love Noel on this team however presti is too aware of his value therefore Noel isn’t available even though he doesn’t start over Adams.

noel fits today’s needs as a center greatly on the defensive end but highly limited offensively....yeah he’d be fantastic here but not available I’m sure 

Yeah I agree, Turner is best fit but cost too much.

Noel will be a FA this season and should be one of the prime targets for Atlanta.

I like Noel over Adams, he is outplaying him this season and should be a cheaper option. In my opinion he is a better player than Adams and also a better fit.

I think Drummond would be the best additionbbut if we cannot get him, Noel is the best option, elite defense, good rebounding, decent offense.

Ibaka would also be a terrific addition, best fit out there

I would like to know who are the centers and the PF we are pursuing. I am glad we finally are taking seriously the improvement of the team, just don’t understand the timing. I think we may have a shot at Wiseman and he is a tremendous fit with Young and Collins, we should use all the opportunities we have to get him. This season is lost anyway, why we would like to upgrade the team?

By July I really hope we have added 2 centers, a PF and a wing or 2. But is it really needed to do it now?

I am failing to understand the logic, why now?

Ok so I like the Teague deal and I like the information Supes is giving. 

Hey Supes I believe what you are saying, I just would like to know the real targets so that I can salivate and celebrate at home. Please write me in private and forget about these morons!!! Lol

Now seriously If we are able to get a C and a wing (shooter), this team could make a great 2nd half. I am still not convinced that is the path we should follow as I really want a shot at Wiseman but this team really needs  to improve. If management thinks is easier to get it now than on July I am fine.

We need to use the opportunity we have, surround Trae and Collins with starters and good bench, see what happens

Wow, really 3 good actions by Cam

Perfect offseason for me would be:

draft Wiseman, killian Hayes or RJ Hampton

sign Noel, Ibaka, Bertans or Crowder (reasonable contract, I think Bertans could be too expensive), Joe Harris.

Young/Hayes/Goodwin

Huerter/Harris/ Reddish

Hunter/Bertans/Reddish

Collins/Ibaka/Bertans

Noel/Wiseman/Fernando

13 guys with Fernando been odd man out. We could sign another 2 players to round the team. A wing and a Big. 
 

if we cannot land Wiseman I would be all in for Drummond

There is no point of giving a first for a 3 month rental on a lost season. We can sign him in the off-season anyway and keep the first. If that first round pick stays on he 15-18 range we could land a valuable player. A backup PG like Kilian Hayes, Maledon or Hampton ir a big like Carney Jr, Stewart for Dante, Zeke..

I don't understand why people want to trade for a 4 month rental on a season that is already lost. I don't want to hurt our chances to get Wiseman. Or we get a player that improves the team long term or there is no reason to trade to improve a record that can only take us out of the top 3 pick.

We all need to recognize that is possible that Cam becomes a bust, that is true. However you just cannot ensure that a 20 year old player that is showing some promising signs is going to bust for sure, that is unreasonable. 
 

In Cam you can see a lot of promise, play making ability, good defense, can go to the rim.... needs to play under control, limit his turnovers, shoot better.... a lot of flaws and some good signs, no one can predict how good or bad he is going to be but the potential is there, one of those players we will need to wait to see if we got something or not. Is just that we are not used to draft this kind of players. Isaac, Exum, Ingram, Chriss, Bender.... are players that remind me his potential, some histories have good end other don’t.... most teams have at some point these kind of prospects, is just that we are not used to it.

hace 22 minutos, JTB dijo:

Maybe but we all know Cam is a project. I’d rather we keep him than giving him away  and He actually live up to what the front office thinks he could become 

Better if people are patient, Cam looks like one of those projects that might need 3-4 years to develop.

With BKN pick Halliburton, Kilian Hayes, Maledon, RJ Hampton... one or 2 of those will be available. PG tend to slip in the lottery, teams tend to invest in size and shooting and this class is very loaded at PG, is almost a fact that some very good PG will slip. We could also go big with Stewart or Carney Jr or Okongwu. Wings are really weak but is almost a guarantee 5-7 of them will go in the lottery, Edwards, Advija, McDaniels, Achiuwa, Ramsey will go there, 2 additional players might go on the lottery, Josh Greene, Maxey,  Nesmith, Okoro.... have some chances. This has been that way historically, teams bet on shooters and Centers on last years.

that means that 4-6 bigs and 4-6 PGs will be chosen before our pick.

Wiseman, Toppin, Okongwu, Carney Jr and Stewart are my bets. Outrun, Dante and Zeke might push one out of the group, that is why I think Stewart or Carney Jr might be available. Ball, Mannion, Cole Anthony will go there, Halliburton, Kilian Hayes, Maledon and Hampton come after, one or 2 of those will be available. BKN pick might be very valuable, we might find a real contributor there.

I think he could help here.