Hollinger Playoff Odds - 36.9%

[bfwolf]

John Hollinger has devised a system that plays out each team's remaining games thousands of times and then lets you see interesting things like what's the most likely record your team will finish with or how likely they are to make the playoffs. The key assumption is that teams will continue to play the rest of the season as well as they have played up to this point in the season, which is not such a terrible assumption to make in the Eastern conference playoff hunt, the Mike Bibby and Jason Kidd trades notwithstanding.

Hollinger odds say the Hawks will most likely finish with around 35 wins and gives the Hawks a 36.9% chance of making the playoffs. Interestingly, our main competition for the final playoff spot is not New Jersey (at just 9.8%) but rather Chicago (32.7%) and Indiana (27.5%). This is due, I imagine, mostly to the fact that the Nets PPG differential to their opponents is over 2 points worse than the Hawks, Pacers, and Bulls. Hollinger has long pointed out that point differential is a better indicator of future performance than win/loss record.

Here are the playoff odds:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

For an explanation on how it works:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/stor...redictor-071206

[JackB1]

If Hollinger says right now we would make the playoffs in the 8th spot, then wouldn't our odds of making the playoffs 100%? I don't understand this 36.9%? I doesn't make sense to me.

[Nicholasp27]

he says he expects us to be 8th seed

but it's only 36.9% likely that we will actually make it into the playoffs (as any seed)

it can't be 100% for us to make playoffs until we clinch

[macdaddy]

35 wins sounds about right. Given the injuries we had last year plus the addition of Horford and Bibby this year I don't see how 35 wins is much improvement playoffs or not.

But I'd love to see us in the playoffs. I think it would give this franchise a boost to have that monkey off our backs.

[AnnArborHawk]

Quote:

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Interestingly, our main competition for the final playoff spot is not New Jersey (at just 9.8%) but rather Chicago (32.7%) and Indiana (27.5%). This is due, I imagine, mostly to the fact that the Nets PPG differential to their opponents is over 2 points worse than the Hawks, Pacers, and Bulls.

The Pacers are in there because their schedule is so weak. They only play 4 teams the rest of the season with winning records.

[AnnArborHawk]

Quote:

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If Hollinger says right now we would make the playoffs in the 8th spot, then wouldn't our odds of making the playoffs 100%? I don't understand this 36.9%? I doesn't make sense to me.

It's based on simulations of the remainder of the season. Based how each team has played this season, with recent record being emphasized more than Nov/Dec record, it simulates the rest of the season (much like an NBA live sim - on a game by game basis).

In 36.9% of Hollinger's simulations (I think he does 5000), the Hawks make the playoffs. That's where it comes from.

[bfwolf]

And with the way we're playing, that seems generous.

[Seano]

Wow. It would be pretty pathetic to make the playoffs with a 35-47 record. That's like the freaking NHL. I'd be pretty exasperated about if if I were a fan of Golden State or Denver or Portland, cause all of those teams should finish well above .500- and two of them are going to be shut out of the playoffs in spite of that.

It really is a ridiculous situation. A team that finishes 12 games below .500 should not be in the playoffs, and there should probably be some kind of rule in place to prevent that from happening (though there won't be one). But, like every other long-suffering Atlanta Hawks fan....I'll take it if it comes, even if it is ridiculous, unearned, unwarranted, and undeserved- and even if it is just a quick one 'n done series, as it most likely will be. So I won't turn my nose up at that, but it truly would be a lame way to make the playoffs.