Early season numbers

[crimedog]

In terms of offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) our Atlanta Hawks are currently 6th in the A with 109.3, which is phenomenal and something I think will go down as our 3pt% drops a little as the season wears on.

In terms of D efficiency (same concept, just applied to what the opponent does) we are ranked 5th at 100.6.

Our team is has the 8th highest eFG% in the league, which is field goal % taking into acct the extra point being given to the 3. Our TO% is also 8th, which is good. Our Offensive rbd% is 11th. We are drawing FTs at the 23rd highest rate (per FG). We are the 19th fastest team in the league with 90.8 possessions.

Defensively we are second to Bos in holding the other team's eFG% down. We are 18th at creating TOs. We are 29th in D rbd%. We are the 10th best team in the league at not over-fouling.

I was going to do an 82games +/- thing too but those #s haven't been updated since the 11th and therefore don't reflect the Boston and possibly the Chicago games.

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I'll give my take, I'd like to hear some others.

I think our eFG% should fall a little as the season wears on as we are leading the league in 3pt% and I don't think Marv, Flip, and Mo will continue to hit those at the rate that they have been. I hope this will be offset by an uptick in FTs, specifically from Marv and Josh who were both excellent in this area last season but haven't been this season. I also think our TO% will go up a bit when Josh gets back but that will be offset by a further jump in our Offrbd rate because Josh is a better offensive rebounder than Marv (who has been playing a lot of PF) and Al should be playing a couple more minutes a game as he gets better at not fouling.

Defensively, we've slipped quite a bit statistically because of the Tor game, the Chi game, and the Boston game (I think we were around 95). I think Josh's return might hurt our offensive efficiency, especially at first, but I think he will help on D. I think our opponents have been shooting pretty poorly from 3 against us (28%), which has been partially due to good D but is also a bit fluky as that is second in the league. I think that will rise a little bit but we will give up fewer interior points again. I think we will get better at creating TOs with Josh back, as he was the steals leader in the first 3 games. Even more importantly though, I think our D rebounding will spike when he returns. Marv and Za aren't great rebounders for a PF and C respectively and I think Al rebounds better defensively when Josh is in the game to contest shots. When Josh comes back and Al rounds into form, I think we can be at least middle of the pack in Drbg - especially if Solo keeps playing.

I think we should play a little faster too, but as long as the guys give it on D, I'm fine with the ground and pound.

So, to sum it up, some of our numbers are fluky (both our and our opponents 3FG% benefit us earlier than I think they will on the season) but I think we should be able to sustain our level of offense and get better on D when Josh returns because of the rebounding on both sides and the shotblocking inside which will offset the eventual return to the mean in opponent 3pt%.

Edited November 14, 2008 by crimedog

[Boomer]

Excellent analysis dog, couldn't agree more. While I wish Marvin would keep shooting 1000% from 3, it can't last forever.

Edited November 14, 2008 by Boomer

[h2t]

good stuff

[exodus]

Defensively we are second to Bos in holding the other team's eFG% down. We are 18th at creating TOs. We are 29th in D rbd%. We are the 10th best team in the league at not over-fouling.

Defensive rebounding is still a major problem.

[crimedog]

Defensive rebounding is still a major problem.

I agree. I think its been really excerbated by Smith going down though - in the first three games we out offensive rebounded Orlando by 1, had one fewer than PHI, and 5 more than NOH. We drew even with Tor. Had 2 fewer Oboards than OKC, 6 fewer than Chi, and 10 fewer than Boston. Only 7 games in, one really bad game can screw you up but the Boston game we only grabbed 27 out of 52 potential rebounds with really hurt our averages, although Chicago was a pretty poor showing as well (in terms of % of rebounds).

The problem has been that, especially with Josh out, we are giving a lot of minutes to Flip and Mo. Playing lineups like Bibby-Flip-Joe-Marv-Zaza.

Although I like what Zaza brings when he's on (offensive boards, pissing off our opponents), I'd really like to see him split the backup front court minutes with Solo even after Josh gets back. Solo is just a much better defensive rebounder than Zaza. I'd also like to see very little of the Marv at PF thing that we've gone back to.

Edited November 14, 2008 by crimedog

[DrReality]

Are you a statistition?

We should be better at drawing fowls. maybe as we get some recognition we'll improve.

[crimedog]

Are you a statistition?

We should be better at drawing fowls. maybe as we get some recognition we'll improve.

Its all on basketball-reference.com which is a fantastic site.

The catergories are sortable.

In terms of interpretation, thats just how I see things. My biggest cautions though, about our 3pt% and our opponents 3pt% are pretty well founded. We are shooting significantly above .400 this season from deep, last season the Suns led the leage with .393 (we as a team shot .356); similarly, last season the Cs held teams to .316 from deep to lead the league, we were at .362.

This season we are shooting too high, its unsustainable. Similarly, our D against opposing 3pt shooters has been good but not THAT good that teams are shooting .035 or so worse against us than they did against the league leader in that catergory last season.

A game like last night will really screw with the averages of course, just because of the sample size.

Still though, we have gotten lucky with some good shooters missing shots (the Toronto game is an example of this, Calderon and Parker were just icy), which isn't to say our winning has been luck but some of the things we are seeing are going to even out or we will have a fairly historic season.

Edited November 14, 2008 by crimedog

[bronnt]

Its all on basketball-reference.com which is a fantastic site.

The catergories are sortable.

In terms of interpretation, thats just how I see things. My biggest cautions though, about our 3pt% and our opponents 3pt% are pretty well founded. We are shooting significantly above .400 this season from deep, last season the Suns led the leage with .393 (we as a team shot .356); similarly, last season the Cs held teams to .316 from deep to lead the league, we were at .362.

This season we are shooting too high, its unsustainable. Similarly, our D against opposing 3pt shooters has been good but not THAT good that teams are shooting .035 or so worse against us than they did against the league leader in that catergory last season.

A game like last night will really screw with the averages of course, just because of the sample size.

Still though, we have gotten lucky with some good shooters missing shots (the Toronto game is an example of this, Calderon and Parker were just icy), which isn't to say our winning has been luck but some of the things we are seeing are going to even out or we will have a fairly historic season.

Yeah, I think you're pretty much spot on.

Obviously the 3PT% are a number to watch as the season progresses. Marvin can't be expected to continue hitting 70% of them, and Evans shouldn't be hitting over 50%....Flip Murray probably won't be anywhere near 40% come season's end. And in the fourth quarter against Boston, we lucked out a few times as Ray Allen missed wide open jumpers, which just doesn't happen very often.

It's a bit worrisome because the 3 point shooting is unsustainable, and it's been one of the few things that's worked well for our offense, outside of Horford against the Bulls.

Josh WAS our leading rebounder through 4 games, though, and his absence really is hurting our rebounding numbers, which definitely need to improve. The Boston game really skewed the %'s, and it's not that surprising given that we had JJ playing the 4 and guarding KG at times. We played half the game without Zaza, and Horford was out nearly the entire first half...no way we were going to get as many rebounds.

Here's hoping Josh is back by next Friday.

[johnnyde]

Here's another neat stat- The Hawks are the only team in the league with 7 players averaging double figures (if you count an injured Josh Smith).

[DrReality]

We are way behind the Nets tonight in FT. If it weren't for our three point shooting we'd be in deep doo doo.

[crimedog]

Yeah, I think you're pretty much spot on.

Obviously the 3PT% are a number to watch as the season progresses. Marvin can't be expected to continue hitting 70% of them, and Evans shouldn't be hitting over 50%....Flip Murray probably won't be anywhere near 40% come season's end. And in the fourth quarter against Boston, we lucked out a few times as Ray Allen missed wide open jumpers, which just doesn't happen very often.

It's a bit worrisome because the 3 point shooting is unsustainable, and it's been one of the few things that's worked well for our offense, outside of Horford against the Bulls.

Josh WAS our leading rebounder through 4 games, though, and his absence really is hurting our rebounding numbers, which definitely need to improve. The Boston game really skewed the %'s, and it's not that surprising given that we had JJ playing the 4 and guarding KG at times. We played half the game without Zaza, and Horford was out nearly the entire first half...no way we were going to get as many rebounds.

Here's hoping Josh is back by next Friday.

Quick update, the Hawks are still leading the league in 3pt% - even more impressive than before at .436 but the Hawks 3pt defense has, predictably, fallen back to the median after those disastrous NJ games where they just couldn't miss, to .351 which is middle of the pack.

Josh will help with that because he allows guys to rotate better on the perimeter but the number we had earlier was unsustainable - as is our current three point shooting percentage.