Insider request - Draft: Rating the European prospects

[BigDirty]

Could somebody with ESPN Insider post this article pretty please? :helpsmilie:

[Admin]

Could somebody with ESPN Insider post this article pretty please? :helpsmilie:

Sorry I don't have time to format this right now but here is the article ...

A few days ago I presented my draft rater, which looks at the pro potential of all of this year's collegians, but that doesn't mean our work is done.

There's also a group of Europeans to look at, and in this case they fall into three categories. The first category is the one that matters most for Thursday -- the group of Euros eligible to be selected in the draft, either because they've declared for it or because they turn 22 this calendar year.

But there are two other equally important groups. First are the ones whose draft rights are already held by NBA clubs, many of whom can expect to make the move this summer or in the years following. Second are those whose rights aren't held by any team and are true free agents. While several in that category are bound by contracts in Europe, they're nonetheless an intriguing source of free talent and many can wriggle free with buyout provisions.

With that in mind, let's bring back my European translation system for another go-round. As I've explained in previous years, the highest level of European basketball, the Euroleague, is where most of the continent's quality performers can be found. And the good news for NBA teams is that there's a predictable relationship between how a player performs in the Euroleague and how he'll fare in his first year in the NBA.

On average, switching from the Euroleague to the NBA does the following to a player's pace-adjusted per-minute stats:

# Scoring rate decreases 25 percent

# Rebound rate increases by 18 percent

# Assist rate increases by 31 percent

# Shooting percentage drops by 12 percent

# Overall, player efficiency rating drops by 30 percent

Because of that, we can draw some pretty good inferences about how valuable the prospects in Europe might be to teams in the NBA just by looking at their numbers in Europe this season.

Let's take a look at who's available and see how they graded out:

In this year's draft

Translated stats for players with at least 200 Euroleague minutes

Player 	Pts/40 	Reb/40 	Ast/40 	FG Percent 	PER

Oguz Savas 	15.0 	8.4 	3.2 	47.0 	14.76

Omri Casspi 	14.9 	8.4 	1.3 	44.4 	12.06

Sergio Llull 	11.1 	2.7 	6.2 	41.2 	10.14

Brandon Jennings 	11.4 	3.7 	4.3 	34.1 	8.06

Milenko Tepic 	10.1 	5.7 	6.0 	34.2 	7.90

Gasper Vidmar 	7.4 	12.3 	0.9 	41.3 	6.56[/code]




Ricky Rubio

OK, it's time to shine a harsher light here. There's one thing working hugely against Rubio's status as an A-list prospect that nobody seems to want to mention, so let me put it out there: There's very little evidence he can score at anything approaching an acceptable rate for an NBA point guard.



We have very little recent Euroleague data to work with from Rubio -- just a 66-minute sample from this year and a larger sample from two years earlier -- but both sets translate to scoring about five points per 40 minutes and shooting in the low 30s. Ugh. Rubio shot better in the Spanish ACB league this season, including 25-of-62 on 3-pointers, but he also shot only 39 percent on 2s against a lower level of competition.



Same goes for his alleged breakout in the Olympics -- as heralded as he was for his play, he made nine baskets in eight games and shot 28.1 percent for the tournament. And while one of those games was against a team full of U.S. All-Stars, he wasn't bedazzling the Germans or Angolans either. Obviously he's a Jason Kidd-like rarity in that he can have a heavy impact on the game without scoring, but if his shooting numbers don't improve, he'll make Kidd look like Rick Barry.



Oguz Savas

A draft-eligible Turkish big man who has generated no buzz whatsoever, my numbers show Savas as a mid-first-round talent. His translated PER from this season is 14.76, and while his numbers from the previous season aren't as strong (10.81), combining the two still leaves you with a decent backup center that has some potential for improvement. He doesn't wow with his athleticism but he is big and smart, can shoot and seems like a poor man's version of countryman Mehmet Okur.



Omri Casspi

Casspi projects as a late-first-rounder, which is exactly where he's expected to be taken. The 6-9 forward projects as a strong rebounder if he's playing the 3, and a pretty good scorer for a 4. His numbers are based on only 279 minutes, but he had similar results a year earlier for Euroleague powerhouse Maccabi.



Sergio Llull

Llull more than doubled his translated PER from the year before (4.54). Of course, that can be taken in one of two ways: either he's rapidly improving, or he was playing over his head and will bound back to Earth. He shot 38 percent on 3s and probably is at least worth a second-round pick to see if he develops any further in Spain.



Brandon Jennings

Jennings' translated numbers from Europe were awful. While in his case we might take them with a grain of salt given the adjustment he was making, we should at least consider the possibility that he's just not that good. What stands out is that his performance translated to being both a bad shooter (34.1 percent) and a rotten playmaker (4.3 assists per 40 minutes). Most suspect he'll fare better in an NBA system, but the improvement would need to be fairly large for him to make an impact.



The rest

Gasper Vidmar and Milenko Tepic both played extended minutes the past two years and put up very poor numbers; at this point I'd say they're not even worth a second-round pick. Henk Norel played 116 rather uninspired minutes (translated PER 3.07), which isn't enough playing time to completely dismiss him, but doesn't help his case any. Brazil's Vitor Faverani played only 55 minutes but played fairly well, grabbing a translated 10.1 boards per 40 minutes.



True free agents



[code]Translated stats for players with at least 200 Euroleague minutes

Player 	Pts/40 	Reb/40 	Ast/40 	FG Percent 	PER

D'Or Fischer 	15.4 	12.5 	2.1 	61.7 	17.97

Ioannis Bourosis 	17.3 	16.0 	1.8 	52.0 	17.90

Terrell McIntyre 	16.7 	3.8 	7.5 	45.1 	16.54

Ksistof Lavrinovic 	13.0 	12.2 	1.6 	40.7 	13.79

Carlos Arroyo 	12.9 	3.7 	6.4 	34.6 	10.21

Carlos Cabezas 	11.8 	4.0 	4.0 	39.0 	7.90

D'Or Fischer wasn't drafted when he came out of West Virginia in 2005, but it's becoming increasingly clear he should have been. The 27-year-old center for Maccabi Tel Aviv put together an outstanding season, though it was cut short when he was attacked outside a Tel Aviv nightclub and cut with a bottle. His offensive numbers weren't as strong as in previous stops, but at 6-foot-11 and 242 pounds, one has to think he's a decent backup center at the absolute worst. Ioannis Bourosis is a Greek big man whom the Spurs reportedly covet, and it's clear to see why from those phenomenal rebounding numbers he put up last season. Take it with a grain of salt, as his 2008 numbers weren't nearly as strong -- 9.1 points, 12.9 boards per 40 minutes and a 10.49 PER -- and he hasn't exactly dominated in his minutes with the Greek national team. On the other hand, he reportedly only took up the game at age 18 (he's now 25), which means he could still be on the upswing. Terrell McIntyre has two pretty huge strikes against him -- he's 5-foot-9 and he'll be 32 in October. Nonetheless, the veteran from Clemson starred for Montepaschi Siena the past couple of years and was good enough this season to at least make you wonder how he'd fare in the NBA as an Earl Boykins-type energizer off the bench. Ksistof Lavrinovic is a Lithuanian big man whose name sometimes appears as Ksystofas Lavronivicius; adding further confusion, he has a twin brother named Darius. By any name, he's a good rebounder but mostly hangs out on the perimeter offensively, and would likely be a pick-and-pop backup center in the NBA. He's also 29 and coming off the best season of his career, so this is probably about as good as it gets for him. Carlos Arroyo was one of several U.S.-based players to take the European plunge this past summer, and while several weren't in the Euroleague, his team was. Arroyo didn't put up particularly good numbers by his standards, but they're within the range you'd expect from a backup point guard, which is exactly what he'll be if he decides to come back to the States. There were rumors earlier this year the Knicks had interest in Carlos Cabezas, but based on his European numbers it doesn't seem like he'd provide much help. If he does jump to the NBA, I at least hope he ends up on the same team as Luther Head -- providing a two-headed backcourt in any language. Rights held by teams

Translated stats for players with at least 200 Euroleague minutes

Player 	Pts/40 	Reb/40 	Ast/40 	FG Percent 	PER

Nikola Pekovic 	21.7 	9.9 	1.0 	55.8 	18.36

Erazem Lorbek 	17.4 	11.4 	2.0 	51.4 	17.16

Tiago Splitter 	16.4 	10.0 	3.2 	57.6 	16.52

Fran Vazquez 	13.7 	11.7 	1.8 	59.3 	15.86

Lior Eliyahu 	15.5 	11.5 	4.7 	54.2 	15.25

Ersan Ilyasova 	15.3 	16.0 	2.1 	40.2 	14.48

David Andersen 	16.0 	9.3 	2.1 	44.7 	12.86

Georgios Printezis 	13.8 	8.0 	1.6 	56.0 	11.51

Josh Childress 	10.7 	8.8 	2.4 	41.4 	9.77[/code]


Nikola Pekovic (Timberwolves) has been the highest-rated player in the Euroleague each of the past two years. An onerous contract is likely to keep him in Europe for a few more years, and the Wolves aren't exactly hurting for bruising big men right now. But he projects as a quality power forward with an impressive scoring rate, and sooner or later he'll be in the NBA.


Erazem Lorbek (Pacers) has put together reasonably good seasons before, but this one was his best to date by far. He plays the NBA's least scarce position, power forward, so there may not be as much urgency to bring him over. But looking at his track record of the past few years, he's clearly an NBA player, and possibly a pretty good one.


Tiago Splitter (Spurs) likely will be jumping to San Antonio a year from now, when the Spurs will no longer be bound by the rookie salary scale in signing him. The Brazilian has been arguably the best center in Europe the past two seasons and while his rep is for defense and rebounding, he projects to be surprisingly potent offensively.


Fran Vazquez (Magic) has given no inclination whatsoever that he'll come to Orlando, but with the Magic looking to trim salary in other areas, it's worth bringing up his name as a low-cost possibility in the frontcourt. The Magic will no longer be bound by the rookie salary scale, but Vazquez hasn't seemed interested in leaving Spain at any price.


Lior Eliyahu (Rockets) is a bit of a tweener as a combo forward, but this is the second time in three years he's put up very strong translated numbers and at 23 he could be ready to make the jump as the league's first Israeli player. The bigger issue may be fitting him into Houston's complicated dance with the luxury tax.


Ersan Ilyasova (Bucks) didn't do a whole lot in his first go-round in Milwaukee, but those rebounding numbers from last year jump off the page. He's a restricted free agent until or unless the Bucks renounce him, so for now they still have first dibs. But it's hard to imagine the Bucks signing him this summer with their cap issues.


David Andersen (Hawks) projects as a halfway decent pick-and-pop 4, but I've never heard anybody in Atlanta talk about him. Ever. Truth is he's probably not good enough to bother buying him out and bringing him over, and if there was a time to do so, it passed several years ago.


Georgios Printezis (Raptors) is still at least a year away, but he showed some nice progress last season and could fill a role as a backup center down the road.


Josh Childress (Hawks) probably was the worst per-dollar value in Europe last season, because like Brandon Jennings, he struggled to adjust to the different game. The biggest change to note is the shooting percentage, since he shot 52.2 percent from the floor in four seasons in the NBA. He's a restricted free agent and the Hawks may look to trade his rights.

[BigDirty]

Thank you kind sir.

Seems like Hollinger bases EVERYTHING on PER without looking at the situations these different players were in.