What Stat For You Means Success For The Hawks

[Guest Walter]

I looked over some statistics in terms of scoring avgs and how the Hawks do when a player scores over or under his avg. The Hawk's record when Marvin scores above his 10.1 PPG scoring avg. this year is 9-1. Below his 10.1 PPG scoring avg? 5-7. That's a huge difference for one player. For contrasting example when JJ scores over his scoring avg. of 17.1 this year we are 6-4.

9-1! While it's the most frightening notion to me that this team hinges on MW being both more assertive and more and more successful, this appears to be the case. However, you may agree, disagree or have another single stat that most reflects the Hawks ability to win/take it to another level.

The positives are: 1) MW has scored 14.8 over a whole season several years ago and is "able" to do so. 2) 10.1 is an extremely low PPG average for a starter regardless and should be improved upon, right?

The negatives are: 1) It's Marvin we are talking about here. He has the will of a career role player in at least starter if not star talent. He will shrink. 2) If we were going to see MW step up, wouldn't we have already seen it in Drew's motion offense.

W

[DJlaysitup]

As a basketball fan who grew up looking at boxscores in the newspaper, I've always looked at team FG%age as the key. Of course you can't look at just one game - need to have 20-30 games to get an average (including going against the top teams).

OT a bit...an old sports gambler once told me that one of the key statistics in predicting pro football games is yards per pass attempt. Not yards per completion - yards per attempt - it combines completion %age with yards.

[tremor]

The problem with Marvin is that he usually doesn't step up against good teams. He tried to attack the basket twice - once was blocked, once stripped and he reverted back to old good standing in the corner himself. Like Mo, he can't finish in traffic.

[DJlaysitup]

The problem with Marvin is that he usually doesn't step up against good teams. He tried to attack the basket twice - once was blocked, once stripped and he reverted back to old good standing in the corner himself. Like Mo, he can't finish in traffic.

We can't afford to have any more dissappearing acts from the SF spot in big games though....his stats last night for 31+ minutes were beyond anemic....2-9 - 4 rebounds - ZERO FOULS. Granted normally not fouling is good - but in a game like this you gotta man up. :kickcan:

smh.

[Diesel]

I looked over some statistics in terms of scoring avgs and how the Hawks do when a player scores over or under his avg. The Hawk's record when Marvin scores above his 10.1 PPG scoring avg. this year is 9-1. Below his 10.1 PPG scoring avg? 5-7. That's a huge difference for one player. For contrasting example when JJ scores over his scoring avg. of 17.1 this year we are 6-4.

9-1! While it's the most frightening notion to me that this team hinges on MW being both more assertive and more and more successful, this appears to be the case. However, you may agree, disagree or have another single stat that most reflects the Hawks ability to win/take it to another level.

The positives are: 1) MW has scored 14.8 over a whole season several years ago and is "able" to do so. 2) 10.1 is an extremely low PPG average for a starter regardless and should be improved upon, right?

The negatives are: 1) It's Marvin we are talking about here. He has the will of a career role player in at least starter if not star talent. He will shrink. 2) If we were going to see MW step up, wouldn't we have already seen it in Drew's motion offense.

W

I don't think that means so much. Marvin may get more shots during our wins and during our loses, he's not getting as many. However, I think that team rebounding is something that could be more substantial. i don't know the state, but if we outrebound our opponents by +5 for instance I would think we'd win every time.

[Popeye]

We need a new starting caliber SF................ end of story.....

[spotatl]

To me its free throw rate. When the Hawks are drawing contact and getting to the line it makes a huge difference for the team. When they are content to settle for long 2 point jumpers then the team is in big trouble.

[CWebb]

We need a new starting caliber SF................ end of story.....

That's just dissing..

Our team has a psychological issue to solve. They gotta play with heart and harder. Where's the killer's mentality ?. End of the story

[foeteen14]

To me its free throw rate. When the Hawks are drawing contact and getting to the line it makes a huge difference for the team. When they are content to settle for long 2 point jumpers then the team is in big trouble.

they weren't calling any fouls for the hawks down there in miami. we were pretty aggressive throughout the game, and we were getting fouled alot, but the refs swallowed the whistle, except for the big 3

[Admin]

they weren't calling any fouls for the hawks down there in miami. we were pretty aggressive throughout the game, and we were getting fouled alot, but the refs swallowed the whistle, except for the big 3

There is a good joke here but for the sake of our younger members I shall refrain ...

[coachx]

The #1 stat I look at is rebounding. All teams can have an off night shooting the ball but rebounding and energy can make up for an off night.

Another stat that is key is fast break points and points off turnovers.

This Hawks team must max out on the energy stats.

[txsting]

I looked over some statistics in terms of scoring avgs and how the Hawks do when a player scores over or under his avg. The Hawk's record when Marvin scores above his 10.1 PPG scoring avg. this year is 9-1. Below his 10.1 PPG scoring avg? 5-7. That's a huge difference for one player. For contrasting example when JJ scores over his scoring avg. of 17.1 this year we are 6-4.

9-1! While it's the most frightening notion to me that this team hinges on MW being both more assertive and more and more successful, this appears to be the case. However, you may agree, disagree or have another single stat that most reflects the Hawks ability to win/take it to another level.

The positives are: 1) MW has scored 14.8 over a whole season several years ago and is "able" to do so. 2) 10.1 is an extremely low PPG average for a starter regardless and should be improved upon, right?

The negatives are: 1) It's Marvin we are talking about here. He has the will of a career role player in at least starter if not star talent. He will shrink. 2) If we were going to see MW step up, wouldn't we have already seen it in Drew's motion offense.

W

I also recall running some numbers along these lines either last year or the year before, and I came to the same conclusion. Marvin's production really matters and is often the difference between winning and losing.

[Diesel]

I also recall running some numbers along these lines either last year or the year before, and I came to the same conclusion. Marvin's production really matters and is often the difference between winning and losing.

I will say it like this. Marvin's productivity is an effect and not a cause.

Here's what I mean.

If we outrebound a team by +5 and we win, then it's good to say that our rebounding was the cause of the win.

If Marvin scores 15 and we win, 9 times out of 10, Marvin's scoring is due to the fact that we were winning, not the reason for us winning. For this reason, I call Marvin a nonimpact player. He usually does nothing to impact winning.

[Admin]

I will say it like this. Marvin's productivity is an effect and not a cause.

Here's what I mean.

If we outrebound a team by +5 and we win, then it's good to say that our rebounding was the cause of the win.

If Marvin scores 15 and we win, 9 times out of 10, Marvin's scoring is due to the fact that we were winning, not the reason for us winning. For this reason, I call Marvin a nonimpact player. He usually does nothing to impact winning.

Huh?? Can you please explain the logic behind that? You only have to go back to the 76ers game to see that Marvin's scoring was a major factor in our win and he didn't score 22 points because we were winning, especially considering that we trailed for 95% of the game. On top of that we were -4 in rebounding for the game as a team.

[AUhawksfan]

I will say it like this. Marvin's productivity is an effect and not a cause.

Here's what I mean.

If we outrebound a team by +5 and we win, then it's good to say that our rebounding was the cause of the win.

If Marvin scores 15 and we win, 9 times out of 10, Marvin's scoring is due to the fact that we were winning, not the reason for us winning. For this reason, I call Marvin a nonimpact player. He usually does nothing to impact winning.

This really doesn't make any sense unless you can 100% say a majority of his points came in garbage time. Any players points have an affect on winning until the game is not even close and it is already decided.

[txsting]

This really doesn't make any sense unless you can 100% say a majority of his points came in garbage time. Any players points have an affect on winning until the game is not even close and it is already decided.

What he said. In fact, Diesel, you usually argue that Marvin is the weakest link on the floor. If his poor production is the cause of so many Hawks woes, then why can't you believe the reverse of the argument? In other words, Marvin's success plays a major role in the Hawks success. The argument actually confirms your theory that Marvin is the weakest link, rather than somehow propping him up.

Imagine a water-filled bucket (the Hawks) with 5 holes in the bottom. Marvin's hole is the biggest. Best move to fix the bucket is to plug the largest hole. Better yet, if you can stick a water hose in there and actually make a positive contribution, you're going to make a hell of a difference.

Think about your fantasy team. If you get great production from the guy you weren't counting on, how do you feel about your chances of winning that game?

Edited December 6, 2010 by txsting

[tremor]

I'll repeat: Marvin disappears against quality teams. And weak teams we usually beat which makes Diesel's point valid to some degree.

[Diesel]

This really doesn't make any sense unless you can 100% say a majority of his points came in garbage time. Any players points have an affect on winning until the game is not even close and it is already decided.

I'll be happy to explain. When was the last time Marvin had a good game against a good team? When we play weaker teams who doesn't play strong defense... Marvin shows up but like Last night ag

Against the Magic, Marvin gives an expected 20 minute 2 point effort. For the most part, against a terrible team, Mo evens or Josh Powell can get Marvin minutes and be productive.

For Example:

Win vs. NY... Marvin 13 points, Mo 10 points.

Win vs. Toronto. Marvin 17 points, Powell 9 points (Mo and Points shoot 50% from field).

Win vs. Memphis. Marvin 15 Points, Powell 16 Points.

win vs. Philly. Marvin 22 points. Powell 6 points (in 6 minutes on 100% shooting).

That doesn't suggest that Marvin is some game changer. That suggests that against those teams, anybody could have done well. Therefore, Marvin's production in those cases were a result of us playing lesser teams. BUT... What happened against Mia and Orlando? Did Mia and Orl make a game plan to stop Marvin the Magnificent? No. All they did was guard him. And true to form, without the easiness of Philly's defense, Marvin does his David Copperfield Imitation and disappeared.

[Jody23]

I'll be happy to explain. When was the last time Marvin had a good game against a good team? When we play weaker teams who doesn't play strong defense... Marvin shows up but like Last night ag

Against the Magic, Marvin gives an expected 20 minute 2 point effort. For the most part, against a terrible team, Mo evens or Josh Powell can get Marvin minutes and be productive.

For Example:

Win vs. NY... Marvin 13 points, Mo 10 points.

Win vs. Toronto. Marvin 17 points, Powell 9 points (Mo and Points shoot 50% from field).

Win vs. Memphis. Marvin 15 Points, Powell 16 Points.

win vs. Philly. Marvin 22 points. Powell 6 points (in 6 minutes on 100% shooting).

That doesn't suggest that Marvin is some game changer. That suggests that against those teams, anybody could have done well. Therefore, Marvin's production in those cases were a result of us playing lesser teams. BUT... What happened against Mia and Orlando? Did Mia and Orl make a game plan to stop Marvin the Magnificent? No. All they did was guard him. And true to form, without the easiness of Philly's defense, Marvin does his David Copperfield Imitation and disappeared.

I agree completely and I'm tired of the poor excuses and rationale being made for his poor play against quality opponents. He needs to be put in a role that better suits his ability...off the bench.

Edited December 7, 2010 by Jody23

[benhillboy]

I usually look at rebounds and free throw attempts, both of which we lost in a win over Orlando, go figure. Specific to the Hawks though, I look at free throw numbers. Especially if Joe had managed to take 8 attempts like some sort of real scorer, that game should be a win. If our two frontcourt guys both post a double double, that's usually a win against most teams. Last night was wierd as well in that we held them under 40% shooting, winning formula, but shot under 40% ourselves! Jamal shooting 50% with 6 or more free throw attempts let's me know he controlled a nice little 4-5 minute stretch that usually goes a long way toward a win for us. Low team Turnovers of course.

Interesting football nugget DJ. Yards per attempt is pretty underrated. When I bet, I look at front line matchups, injury reports, and turnover margins.

Oh yeah, Bibby's three ball numbers, too. I'm sure we're unbeatable if he hits 4 or 5 out of 7 or 8.