Insider Special: Best Worst ~ Lakers

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By Marc Stein

ESPN.com

Editor's note: Here's a glimpse of the good -- and the bad -- that could happen to the 2003-04 Los Angeles Lakers.

Best Case Scenario

To win their fourth championship in the past five seasons -- and maybe even make a run at 70 wins -- these three things need to happen.

Shaquille O'Neal has 'slimmed down' from 380 to 345 pounds.

1. Shaq takes his anger out on the rest of the league. Step 1 was an undeniable success. Stung by criticism about his conditioning, Shaquille O'Neal kept his offseason promise to hire a trainer and get fit. He reported to training camp at about 345 pounds, after reportedly playing at around 380 at various points last season. O'Neal didn't like all the blame he received for the Lakers' inability to four-peat, and he's also not pleased that L.A. is hesitant to give him another maximum contract extension. This regular season, Shaq shouldn't lack for motivation.

2. Just in case, Glove and Mailman supply the regular-season intensity. Gary Payton and Karl Malone are two of the few guys in this league who can get away with riding Shaq. And they plan to. They're the hungry newcomers who know that their Laker legacy depends on making this one of the greatest teams in NBA history. Let's see if they can keep Shaq interested in fast-breaking and fitness. Malone, specifically, can also help keep Shaq fresh by giving O'Neal some needed breaks during the 82-game grind, and Payton is poised to alleviate some of Kobe Bryant's load. Kobe used to be responsible for everything -- ballhandling, guarding three positions and scoring 40 points on cue. GP should make his life easier.

3. As a team, L.A. gets off to a great start. Payton is right. A record of 40-2 halfway through the schedule, or something close to that, would certainly get people talking about the success of the team instead of merely focusing on the Bryant case. But it'd also help if a trial date is set for after the season, to lessen the likelihood of a major in-season distraction.

Worst Case Scenario

The Lakers won't regain their title -- or come close to threatening the Bulls' 72-10 majesty -- if the following three things happen.

1. Frustration with the Bryant situation starts to get serious. So far, it hasn't. Bryant, for the most part, has received overwhelming support from his teammates and the coach. There have only been a few veiled comments at training camp hinting at the idea that the Lakers don't want to deal with Kobe questions every day or a superstar who might be either A) distracted or B) in and out of the lineup. Of course, this could all change if L.A. starts struggling. Then you can expect to hear lots about the distraction factor.

2. Shaq's injuries don't go away. Even with the lost weight, O'Neal had to skip two of the season's first three practices with a newly bruised left heel. Not the way L.A. wanted to see Shaq start the season. To play at the pace Payton and Malone like to play, O'Neal needs full cooperation from his toes, knees, heels, etc. (As an aside, cooperation is an obvious key for the four big egos -- any friction involving Shaq, Kobe, Glove and Mailman could be as costly as a major injury.)

3. Bryant leaves the team for an extended stretch. Given how the Lakers have reloaded, Kobe doesn't have to be the Kobe who reeled off nine straight 40-point games last season. But they do need him teaming with Payton in the backcourt to hold off San Antonio, Sacramento, Dallas and Minnesota in the West. That's how tough this conference is. Besides, even if life would be quieter with Bryant away from the team, his absence could just as easy become a damaging distraction.

Marc Stein is the senior NBA writer for ESPN.com. To e-mail him, click here. Also, send Stein a question for possible use on ESPNEWS.

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