Insider (Hollinger): Does Toine Make a Difference

[Weez]

Updated: April 12, 2005, 11:05 AM ET

Is Walker's return really the key to C's?By John Hollinger, ESPN Insider

John Hollinger Archive

Call it the return of the prodigal son.

Less than two years ago, Boston Celtics team president Danny Ainge gleefully exiled Antoine Walker from Boston, trading him to the Dallas Mavericks for a package that included Raef LaFrentz and Jiri Welsch. At the time, Ainge lambasted Walker for his horrid shot selection and unwillingness to play a supporting role to more efficient offensive players.

Time heals all wounds, however, and Ainge reacquired Walker this February at the trade deadline. It was a sweetheart deal that cost the Celtics only a lottery-protected first-round pick and the last two months of Tom Gugliotta's career.

More surprising than the trade was the fans' reaction. Bostonians who had volunteered to help Walker pack for Dallas now welcomed him back with open arms – exemplified by our resident Celtics fan Bill Simmons' reaction to the trade.

The results thus far have backed up their excitement. The Celtics are 14-7 since Walker returned to the fold, including road victories over the Phoenix Suns and Houston Rockets, and the C's have seized control of the Atlantic Division race.

While the improvement is noteworthy, the Celtics' performance since the trade raises more questions than it answers. For instance, is Walker playing any better than he used to? How much of the improvement is directly attributable to him? Most important, can the Celtics' hot streak continue in the postseason?

Let's start with Walker. 'Toine had free reign to shoot in Atlanta, and man, did he use it. Walker heaved over 19 field-goal attempts a game, despite his low conversion rate of 41.5 percent. He nearly topped the charts in my Brick Index, which measures how much damage a player inflicts on his team's offense with his shooting. However, Walker did not have much choice with such a miserable team. Atlanta's offense consisted of Walker and Al Harrington's alternating shots while the other three guys stood around looking inconspicuous.

Walker has toned it down slightly in Beantown, especially on the 3-pointers. He hoisted 5.1 a game in Atlanta, but that number is now down to 3.2. Even after adjusting for his reduced minutes in Boston, Walker is taking 37 percent fewer long-distance shots in Boston. That's allowed him to improve his True Shooting to 48.7 percent from 47.3 percent, but that's still awful.

Moreover, not much has changed besides the reduction in 3-point shots. Based on my Player Efficiency Rating (PER), which rates a player's overall per-minute statistical production, Walker has been marginally better in Boston. But the sample is small enough that the "change" would be eliminated with one subpar game.

Walker with Hawks and Celtics

Team Pts/40 Reb/40 Ast/40 FG % 3PA/40 PER

Hawks 20.3 9.4 3.7 41.5 5.1 16.37

Celtics 19.5 9.7 3.3 44.1 3.7 15.07

So if Walker's post-trade improvement is negligible, why are the Celtics playing better? Partly, it's a mirage from looking at win-loss records in a vacuum. Prior to the trade, our impression of the Celtics was that they were a bad team because they were a game under .500 at 27-28. In reality, they had outscored their opponents by 26 points, which typically lands a team a game or two on the good side of .500.

Since then, they've gone 14-7 while outscoring opponents by 45 points. Throw out the three games Walker missed with an injury and it's 12-6, with a victory margin of +35. That equals two points a game, which over 18 games usually results in a record of 10-8. So the Celtics had a change of fortune in close games since the trade, thereby exaggerating the importance of Walker's addition.

Celtics and Walker

*Includes games since trade in which Walker didn't play

W-L Point diff. Expected W-L

With Walker 12-6 +35 47-35

Without Walker 29-29* +36 49-39

Although the record overstates his effect, Walker has made a difference. The team's average victory margin improved by 1.5 points per game, which adds approximately four victories to a team's bottom line over the course of a season.

But the key hasn't been adding Walker, it's been subtracting Mark Blount, whose season has been, um ... challenging. After signing a big free-agent contract in the offseason, Blount has played with all the enthusiasm of Ben Stein on Valium. While he's still shooting well over 50 percent, his per-40 minute numbers in rebounds, blocks and steals dipped from 9.8-1.4-1.8 a year ago to 7.5-0.6-1.2 this season, a telltale sign of his indifference.

Replacing Blount's 12.54 PER – a miserable figure for a starter – with Walker's post-trade 16.37 obviously helps. Plus, there's a secondary effect. Having Blount come off the bench means the Celtics don't need to play Kendrick Perkins as their backup center. Perkins' 11.52 PER was even worse than Blount's, and that doesn't account for his nightly flagrant foul either.

So that's nearly a four-point improvement in PER at Walker's spot, plus a one-point improvement at the backup center position. Based on my rule of thumb that every one point increase in PER by a player who sees 2,000 minutes adds a victory to the team, Walker's addition would help the Celtics by about six triumphs over a full season. That's in the same ballpark as the effect I found above by looking at the Celtics' post-trade results.

So the final question is: Can Boston's recent success continue in the postseason? While Boston played like a 43-win team without Walker, they're 4-to-6 victories better with Walker, which makes them a 47-to-49 win team. That difference will loom large in the first round, where the Celtics' probable opponent is either the Washington Wizards or the Indiana Pacers. Both teams have matched the Celtics in the win column despite myriad injuries but could be relatively healthy for the first round.

As for the bigger talk about the Celtics' being a legitimate threat to the Detroit Pistons in the second round, or even winning the East, that's a stretch of Elastigirl proportions. I'm not that high on the Pistons' odds of repeating, but they're still a better team than the Celtics. The Pistons' Expected Wins should end up around 53, so unless Ben Wallace starts another melee or his evil twin Rasheed Wallace attacks a ref between now and the playoffs, the Celtics seem overmatched.

That's not to trivialize Walker's impact, however. One would be hard-pressed to name another two-month rental who's had as many positives and as few negatives as this one. In a deal with virtually no cost or cap implications, the Celtics got a player who put them over the top in the division race and is likely to be the difference again in the first round of the playoffs. In that sense, the enthusiasm over 'Toine's return is completely justified.

John Hollinger, author of "Pro Basketball Forecast 2004-05," is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider.

[bballfan]

Hollinger is another Boston butt kisser. He has written negative articles about Anroine for years.

TRhe Celtics insist that Walker makes no difference but before he came they couldn't win on the road and gave up in games where the other team came back from deficits.

[Bulldog]

yeah. as well as his on court contribution he is very popular in the locker room which is important in getting a team ready to play for each other. Also it has taken pressure off Paul Pierce.

[Weez]

eh, he says things both good and bad about Toine in this article...to the point that he doesn't really take a stance on whether or not Toine is really 'good' for Boston in the long=term...simply stating that he was 'enough' to give them an edge in a tough playoff race...

[bballfan]

Maybe you should read his old stuff weez because he was a huge Walker hater for reasons having nothing to do with his basketball skill's for years.

Funny how idiots like him and Bill Simmons change their tune.

[Weez]

I'm just going on what I've seen of his stuff since he's joined the insider staff...and I've loved it. The statistical analysis, while occassionally taking a little more into 'probability' than I would like, is great. Hard data.

I also like Simmons, tremendously so, probably because he's one of the few 'columnists' (not quite the same as a reporter like DA) who both lvoes the nba and writes creatively...and has said repeatedly that he both loves and hates Walker.

I love and hate JT...and was glad to see him go. But if he were traded back to the Hawks, and the team thrived...I'd be singing his praises as well!

Walker's in a similar situation in Boston (as JT was/woud be here).

[bballfan]

Sorry Weez but I have a problem with two faced people and he is one.

Walker is the exact same player he was before now but SImmons and company are too stupid to grasp that. Maybe it is the you didn't know what you have till you are gone scenerio but Walker gets blamed for a lot in Bodton even stuff he hasn't done since his second year in the league but these "fans" still bring it up.

[Weez]

I'm simply saying to err is human...and it seems that Hollinger justifies both the 'improvement' and his concerns about the future.

that being said, I can only say that if JT were to come back here, the moment he started popping 3's on the fastbreak/early in the shot clock or driving without a plan of whom to dish to...we'd all be calling him on it, even if he'd played ten games here without doing so...

memories are long, and they tend to stick to the mantra of 'a leopard doesn't change his spots.'

[vonrauss]

Tip-

On the contrary, I don't think Walker IS the same player. Though his numbers might not be signifantly different, 'Toine has matured greatly over the last 2 seasons. Its amazing how playing in a situation where you weren't "the man", then moving to a team that didn't stand a prayer to make the playoffs, can tend to humble someone. I'm not saying he's perfect, but he's a better team player than he was during his final year in Boston (where also, I might add, he was playing overweight).

[DominiqueWilkins]

Since Boston made the trade with the Hawks, Tonie has helped them out alot, and it has shown. I also feel Boston will get past the first round of the playoffs, but Tonie has helped up the team towards the right direction.

[bballfan]

Walker came to pre season in Boston 2001 in great shape, he then got hurt and gained some weight. He was playing on a bad knee at the time but Boston reporters never liked to make excuses for Walker, they saved that for Pierce.

This humble BS is just that BS, Walker always gave his all to that team and they never appreciated it. That is why I hope he ends up somewhere other then Boston next year.

The media loves to say he was humbled by Dallas and Atlanta but Danny Ainge gave Walker no chance to prove himself in Boston. He traded him away before the seaosn even started and had been trying to trade him away all summer but deals were made and broken.

Walker has been nothing but a team player since his second year in the league, these are more lies made up by the Bob Ryan's of the world.

Sorry but I disagree with everything you have said. Having lived in Boston I saw the hypoctisy that has gone on there but it took Boston fans losing Walker to appreciate him even a little and even now their fans are pathetic. They lose and it is Walker's fault. He shoots 6 for 12, has 10 rebounds and they say it isn't enough but if he takes 30 shots they blame him. He can't win.

Please don't let the biased Boston media dictate the truth because the Globe is full of idiots and the Heralds NBA insider is in Danny Ainge's back pocket.

As for your matured greatly comment I don't agree. Dana Barros recently said on a TV interview that Walker is the best teammate he has ever had. He made many great comments about how Walker was a great teammate and how he helped everyone on the team and he hasn't played with Walker for years.

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Tip-

On the contrary, I don't think Walker IS the same player. Though his numbers might not be signifantly different, 'Toine has matured greatly over the last 2 seasons. Its amazing how playing in a situation where you weren't "the man", then moving to a team that didn't stand a prayer to make the playoffs, can tend to humble someone. I'm not saying he's perfect, but he's a better team player than he was during his final year in Boston (where also, I might add, he was playing overweight).

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