Is Robinson's Defense that bad?

[beav]

I read this article on a site called alleyoop.com... bucks information is highlighted with stars....

FROM THE BASELINE

March 22, 2002

Small Forwards

Hey everyone. Today I'm continuing a discussion that I started two weeks ago by looking at the defensive stats for the league's small forwards; we'll have only the centers left to discuss next week.

As you may recall, one thing I've done is look at how the top ten players at each position have done against each team. I rate their performance on a per-minute basis, looking at points, missed shots, assists, offensive boards and turnovers, and then compare it to that player's averages for the season. Teams are rated by how players do against them compared to their average. As I've said before, it's an imperfect system, but it does give us some useful information on where team's strengths and weaknesses are defensively.

Having said that, let's take a look at the numbers. Here's the teams that did the best and worst against the top 10 small forwards in the league this season (the 10, by the way, are ****Glenn Robinson****, Michael Jordan, Rashard Lewis, Shawn Marion, Tracy McGrady, Paul Pierce, Jalen Rose, Latrell Sprewell, Peja Stojakovic, and Keith Van Horn):

SF Defense: The Best

San Antonio -5.98

Seattle -5.36

Toronto -3.46

LA Lakers -3.20

LA Clippers -2.68

SF Defense: The Worst

Denver 3.85

Atlanta 3.13

Houston 2.85

Cleveland 2.75

Utah 1.81

Some interesting numbers here, and puzzling ones as well. Let's start at the top. I don't think it's any surprise that San Antonio rates the best: Bruce Bowen is a fantastic defender, after all, and he's got Duncan and Robinson to help out if he gets beat. It's the next name on the list that raises eyebrows: Seattle??? Rashard Lewis isn't anybody's idea of a great defender, and although Desmond Mason certainly plays solid D off the bench you wouldn't expect them to rate so highly.

The same goes for the number three team on the list: Toronto. Jerome Williams is a fantastic defender and has seen big chunks of time at small forward this season, so perhaps that's been enough to overcome the token resistance that Morris Peterson provides. This is especially true since I focused on the top 10 players at the position, which would be the games that they'd be most likely to sit Peterson and let Williams get the bulk of the minutes.

The two L.A. teams aren't a big surprise. Rick Fox and Devean George are both very good defensive players for the Lakers, and the Clips' Corey Maggette has an excellent reputation as well. When Maggette goes out he's replaced by either Darius Miles or Quentin Richardson, both solid defenders in their own right.

Two teams that finished out of the top five also caught my eye. One is Chicago: Ron Artest enjoys an outstanding defensive reputation, but the Bulls were in the middle of the pack. However, a lot of the minutes Artest didn't play were picked up by poor defenders like Fred Hoiberg and Ron Mercer, which may be balancing out the total. (Yes, I know Artest was traded, but he's still played more minutes at small forward for the Bulls than anyone else.)

*****Also noteworthy were the Bucks, who were ninth. Glenn Robinson and Tim Thomas don't enjoy great defensive reputations, but perhaps we should cut them a little slack.*****

Looking at the bottom five, the biggest surprise is probably Utah. Andrei Kirilenko racks up some pretty impressive defensive stats in terms of blocks and steals, but he can also be posted up because he's so ghastly thin, so the Jazz are still pretty easy to score on at this position.

Denver makes sense as the bottom team. James Posey is a decent defender, but guys like George McCloud and Ryan Bowen have seen just as many minutes and are very limited. Atlanta's poor showing is thanks to "ion" Glover and Toni Kukoc, neither of whom would get a vote for the all-Defense Team even if the rules stated you had to vote for all Hawks. I'll be interested to see how much Ira Newble improves this mark between now and the end of the season.

Houston has played musical chairs at small forward all season, although Eddie Griffin now looks to be a long term solution, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them move up between now and year's end. Meanwhile, I didn't think Lamond Murray was such a bad defender for Cleveland, but maybe Ricky Davis is just pulling down the average. Nonetheless, I'd expect the Cavs to live with Lamond's defense given his scoring prowess.

Overall, one of the things that sticks out about the small forwards is how many teams have a great defender and an awful defender who split the minutes. Detroit is a perfect example. Their overall score is right around the middle, but it's because half the time they play Michael Curry, who's a very good defender, and the other half they have Corliss Williamson or Jon Barry playing there, both of whom are very limited. Chicago, Toronto, Dallas (Adreian Griffin and Johnny Newman), and Charlotte (Lee Nailon and Stacey Augmon) are other teams who fit this profile, and I may have missed a couple.

Of course, that makes it harder to divvy up the credit and the blame. I think this method works really well for identifying weaknesses on a team level, but there's still more work to be done to dig out the defensive impact of individual players.

Pot Shots

I went to UVA, so as you might expect I'm a card-carrying Duke hater who was doing cartwheels last night after they lost to Indiana. At the same time, I give their coach Mike Krzpgflhvxzcsfyzewski a lot of credit for refusing to whine about the officials despite three very shaky calls that went against his team in the last minute. Two have been talked about: the no-call on Carlos Boozers' putback, and the foul call on Indiana's last possession when it appeared Chris Duhon had a strip. One the announcers completely missed was that the Indiana guy inbounding the ball on their last possession moved both feet, which is a violation. Not that the officials weren't terrible both ways in this game--they must have gave about six questionable out of bounds calls to Duke in the first half...

While I'm talking about last night's game, can the networks all agree to ban [censored] Enberg from ever doing basketball again? Do you ever notice how many times you hear, "they change the call," or "now they'll say it's traveling," when Enberg does games? The refs don't really change the call, he just gets confused a lot. Every time he hears the whistle he just assumes it's a foul, and if it's a three-second call or something it takes him about 20 seconds to figure it out. This happens at least three times a game, every game he does...

The Dukies' Jason Williams had a disappointing tournament and a disappointing junior year, but looking at the big picture you still have to think he's one of the top three picks. Sure, his shot selection could use a little work and his foul shooting is poor for a guard, but he also averaged 21 points and 5 assists a game on 46% shooting during an "off" year...Bigger story has to be Indiana's Jared Jeffries. The fact that he had such a huge game against Carlos Boozer may have scouts less worried about his scrawniness, which in turn may persuade him to come out for the draft this year. Overall, five guys from last night's game (Williams, Boozer, Jeffries, Mike Dunleavy and Chris Duhon) will be NBA first round picks...

Moving back to the NBA, Gilbert Arenas hung 32 on the Clips last night on 11 of 15 shooting, for a game score of 25.9. I think we can safely say that pick is working out. Also, add another point guard to the list of "guys the Hawks passed on in this year's draft."...The T-Wolves signed Robert "ice" Pack this week, which I suppose is a good move when your other options are Felipe Lopez and William Avery. The downside is that Pack is going to get hurt; the only question is when. (Side note: Can we get a pool going on this? I have April 7th.) The Wolves are just hoping he can stay in one piece until May.

[Hawksfreak]

we need to resign Ira really bad because our defense gave up 6 points less with him in out lineup!

[beav]

I would also greatly prefer Ira over Kevin Willis or *shudder* charles oakley ... here's hoping that his contract demands come down out of the stratosphere...

[Hawksfreak]

we all do! Him coming off the bench and replacing Glenn is like a dream come true! You have offense starting and defense to follow! God Bless!