JeffS17

Edwards is one of my favorite players right now, especially as a UGA alum. Dude is so good and plays so hard. TWolves are going to be scary as long as he's there

I am in no way familiar with any draft prospects, but I would hope that we do not draft with the mindset of "need a contributor right now" instead of picking the prospects with the most upside, or seemingly realizable upside. I want the Hawks to build a program that sustains success in the long run, not one that thinks "we have to win today to make Trae happy". Great franchises develop their draft picks and young players and have a constant stream of high value talent on the bench. We have the coaching staff to do that, so I hope we are not picking guys under the premise we need a contributor next year. Need to exercise patience right now

This changes how I feel about pursuing him this offseason. The last thing this team needs is another injury prone player and KAT just cannot stay healthy. He's averaging <50 games a season over the last 5 seasons. And he's a big -- a heavy one at that. Yikes... I feel for Minny fans as I was pulling for them out of the west.

Murray has got to work on his handles, so loose and that high dribble gets him in trouble

I don't think coming off the bench is necessarily why Hunter has been playing better, but he's looking so good lately. It's maybe a bit of semantics, but I think the fact Quin put him on the bench has lit a bit of a fire under Hunter. He's basically been entitled to a starting role since his rookie year and now this is a bit of a wake up call. He's also clearly developing better habits under Quin as many have already pointed out (quicker decision making, taking more open 3s, more aggressive, etc). I hope he can do this as a starter next year if we retain him, because Bey starting/closing at SF is not the answer for this squad long term.

It's really just Capela. Other than him, we're getting what we should expect for how much we're investing in backup centers (~$17M/year). Meanwhile, we're spending over half our payroll on guard rotations. Trae/Murray can work together, but the question is if it makes sense to take DJs $25-30M and put it towards a wing or center. I think the answer is yes. You have to expect one of AJ/Kobe/Trent to be ready to be a part of the rotation next year. If we move DJ, it probably makes sense to keep Bogi off the bench, but if we can get good value for him, I would strongly consider moving him as well for a defensive-minded SG (if possible).

Yeah, all this just gives credit to people who said we left the tank early. It's tough to argue against that. It sucks the '19 draft class was so weak. Even the '20 draft class...who could we have taken other than OO? Feels like he was the right choice. I think the biggest "miss" which is still TBD, is in 2022. I would have liked to have Kessler or Braun in hindsight. But no one could see these personal issues coming for AJ and he certainly looked like the right pick in his rookie year.

Our results have been slightly above average in my opinion. Unfortunately, you need well above average results in the draft if you want to contend. Hunter was the right pick, even in a re-draft, so calling him "not top 4 lottery level" is unfair. It was a very weak draft. Cam was a bust but I liked that pick, considering the other options on the board at the time. It was an unfortunate draft to have two lotto picks. Heurter was a nice pick and we got an equal pick back for him so that's just a wash JC was a very solid pick but we fumbled his contract extension Okongwu is absolutely producing at a top 10 pick level -- no idea what kind of expectations you have for 6-10 Jalen was a very nice pick Griffin is still TBD, shouldn't expect a ton for a 16th pick yet anyways, but his personal issues are certainly concerning Bufkin is still TBD, but early signs are relatively promising. The entire premise of "turning into breakout stars" for the positions were picking is pretty wild. A healthier opinion is that we're very lucky to have JJ on the roster with potential to be just that, given where we've been picking in these drafts.

Yeah, let's definitely tank for high picks in years we don't own our picks. Mikey, you're making me feel like I'm on Twitter right now. And miss me with "trade Trae for our picks back" because there's no way in hell San Antonio does that. They can patiently wait, tank another year, and as time passes, leverage in that trade goes up and up. And eventually we'll be forced to SnT Trae if that's the route he wants to go. San Antonio is a very competent front office with a once in a lifetime player. They have all leverage in any trade scenario -- so we're never getting those picks back, we can stop fantasizing about that.

I do not trust this FO to pull off an OKC rebuild that most franchises have completely floundered trying to do. Presti's tank and rebuild is a huge anomaly, not the norm.

I don't disagree with this as a viable approach but betting on an, at best, 14% chance at the #1 pick is quite silly. Hoping to hit in the lottery is a strategy that can leave you looking like the Pistons for years. I'd rather just focus on creating/maintaining a winning culture, player development, and savvy trades. So far, this FO has done well post-DJ trade. This offseason will be a big test though.

Our roster is very flawed from a fit perspective, and we have a lot of contracts that are effectively bad money, for a number of reasons: some overpays, some decline, and injury issues. There are a lot of things to overcome from a roster construction stand point which means the only viable path forward is patience, which most here do not have -- which is why the proposed solutions are to throw money at the problem, i.e go into the tax!!! The reality is there are no $20M/year players that are going to fix our issues. There's no tax scenario even possible that has us contending. We don't need more players, we need better players. Maybe we eek out a couple extra wins with better bench depth, but a couple extra wins isn't even the difference between us getting into the play-in or a 6 seed. We need to re-prioritize where our dollars are going (we spend waaayyyy too much on our back court) and we need to develop guys to create value contracts. That is necessary for any path forward.

I agree with this, assuming we don't go above the first apron this upcoming season. 2025 also lines up with our next reasonable opportunity to pay the tax, which will be JJs extension kicking in.

Appreciate the insights, but if this guy is so good, is there any reason to think he's going to be available at our pick?

what are these numbers

Ah, sorry, nevermind then -- have not been keeping up lately.

This is using historical stats though. That means you're comparing a roster that is severely underfunded to one that is competently funded. The real question is how much better is your defense, and how much offensive impact loss can you make up with that $40M worth of assets in place of Trae. Teams being worse with their best player and $40M on the bench, injured, is a non-discussion. Of course we are worse lol

I hope he can develop into a solid bench guy. I'll be honest I don't have an eye for bigs that will be good in the NBA, so I would really like to watch him get some minutes later this season.

I don't really agree with this framework at all. Are you suggesting Doncic is getting favorable calls for people in Dallas? Lebron doesn't even get a favorable whistle when I watch him play. He's massive and takes tons of contact constantly with no call. IF anything, a lot of the stronger player (Lebron, Kawhi, Giannis) get punished for being so strong. Meanwhile, defenders have to treat smaller guys like porcelain without getting whistled. How "favorable" of calls a player gets is completely subjective and subject to bias in the worse way, so it's hardly a conversation worth having. Every team feels like their guy is getting shafted. The only players I see that truly feel like they're getting a favorable whistle are Shai and Butler in the playoffs.

I don't think anyone in here is trying to run off Trae? He has major strides to make if he wants to be a true leader of the team (by example or vocally), though, and it's fair to discuss those shortcomings.

Yes, I've noticed a difference. Hunter got a lot more calls last night than normal. JJ got some annoying offensive fouls, but the biggest difference I noticed is the vibe of the team. Trae was not there arguing with refs constantly which puts a bit of a negative blanket of energy on the floor. And while I agree the refs do not like Trae, which is completely understandable, I don't think it actually impacts his whistle that much. His FTA/game are down but so are his ball dominant comps: Harden, Luka, Lillard, Butler, etc. That's just how they're officiating across the board now. The difference is Trae is much much whinier than most of those guys and his attitude towards the refs clearly grates them. I think you see this in the techs he gets. Anyways, most here know this is a soap box topic for me, but it has been really refreshing being at the games the past couple -- whole mood on the floor has been lighter and more positive.

His screen navigation is some of the best I've seen, he moves like water on defense, it's beautiful. I think the time in College Park was probably well spent refining his game, and for his confidence

Im finally seeing glimpses why Landry was pumped about grabbing Kobe at 15

Would you guys trade Trae for Ingram, Dyson Daniels, and a couple picks?

We were building around him the right way, at least when Schlenk was here. We brought in a very good defensive anchor center, Capela. We drafted long defensive wings (Cam/Hunter), and we put shooter around him (Heurter, Bogi, Gallo). And we got another big with a lottery pick (OO). I would argue this was the "right way" and right approach. Things went off the rails when we spent our assets to bring in someone completely redundant with Trae, which was a very recent shift. Theoretically, we could still move DJ for a big or wing to shore up the fit issues. But in my opinion, fit issues have been dwarfed by talent issues, until Jalen. We just haven't had any guys really pan out to their projected ceilings (Cam/Hunter/OO/JC). Upgrading the roster requires sending out picks and now we're pick starved as well, so options are pretty limited outside of developing the talent we have.