Thursday Insider

[Guest]

2003 Free Agent Watch: Where does the Kandi-man fit?

by Chad Ford

Send an Email to Chad Ford

Also Below: Wizards-Pistons trade muddles up the East | When's Shaq coming back? | Peep Show

NBA position battles: Does Derek Fisher belong in the Laker triangle?

NBA Free Agent Watch

NBA Insider Chad Ford will be chatting live on ESPN.com today at 1 p.m. E.T. Click here to submit your questions.

For the first time in a long time it looks like the Clippers are on the verge of a real playoff run in the Western Conference. Will the 2002 Clipps be just another one hit wonder?

We'll find out Sept. 18th. Restricted free agent Michael Olowokandi and his agent Bill Duffy met with Clippers brass Wednesday in an effort to secure a long-term deal reportedly in the seven-year, $80 million range. Duffy characterized the talks as "interesting" but said no agreement was reached.

To jump start the process, Duffy gave the Clippers a deadline. If the Clippers haven't come up with an acceptable offer by next Wednesday, Olowokandi will accept the Clippers' one-year tender and become an unrestricted free agent next summer.

"The ball's in their court now," Duffy told Insider late Wednesday night. "We gave them some ideas, told them what we're looking for, now it's up to them."

Duffy refused to speculate on the chances of getting an agreement in the next week. He did say that the Clippers have told him that they want to re-sign Olowokandi, but until owner Donald Sterling actually dusts off his checkbook — it's a lot of talk.

Elton Brand, Andre Miller, Lamar Odom and Corey Maggette are all eligible for extensions this summer as well. Miller, Odom and Maggette already know they aren't going to get them, but Brand has had semi-serious discussions with the team.

Brand, like Olowokandi, is looking for a max or near-max contract. League sources told Insider that the Clippers actually made an offer, but it was well below what Brand and his agent, David Falk, were looking for.

If nothing happens, the team will have four restricted, and one unrestricted, free agents next summer. In other words, that great free-agent summer of 2003 could get a whole lot better if Sterling decides to keep up his cheapskate ways. How big is the risk?

The Spurs, Nuggets, Jazz, Wizards (after Wednesday night's trade) and potentially the Sonics (depending on what Rashard Lewis does) will have max cap room next summer. Several other teams, including the Heat, Pistons and Magic, will have significant cap room, but not enough to offer a player a max contract.

If Brand and Olowokandi balk on smaller deals this summer, will they be able to get the big bucks next year? Here's a sneak peek at the top 20 free agents (restricted or otherwise) next summer. With five to seven potential max contracts out there for players who want to change teams, will they make the cut?

Key = ® - restricted free agent | (PO) - player option

1. Tim Duncan, PF, Spurs

Outlook: All signs point to Duncan staying in San Antonio next season.

2. Jason Kidd, PG, Nets (PO)

Outlook: Kidd has told the team that he'd like to play the free-agent market. Expect the Spurs, Sonics and Wizards to all make a big push to bring him into the fold.

3. Jermaine O'Neal, PF, Pacers

Outlook: His shaky play in the World Championships notwithstanding, O'Neal is the most coveted power forward on the market after Duncan. He's young, athletic and keeps improving every year. Expect the Pacers to do what it takes to keep him in Indiana.

4. Michael Olowokandi, C, Clippers

Outlook: If Sterling chokes this summer, Duffy make him pay. Some may feel that this is a little high for Olowokandi but if he continues to improve, he'll be the best center on the market. Teams like the Spurs and Jazz will have huge a gaping hole to fill in the middle.

5. Andre Miller, PG, Clippers ®

Outlook: The Clipps can't afford to pay everyone and many feel that Miller will be the casualty. After Kidd, he's the best point guard on the board. Expect the Jazz and Wizards to make him a big offer.

6. Elton Brand, PF, Clippers ®

Outlook: He'll be right on the cusp. The Spurs, Sonics, Wizards and Jazz will all have interest, but will anyone give him the max? Another double-double season and a Clippers playoff run should be enough to get him the money he's looking for.

7. Gary Payton, PG, Sonics

Outlook: The Sonics still maintain that they want Payton to retire a Sonic, but it will cost them to the tune of three years, $40 million. While he's shown no signs of slowing down, he'll be 35 in July.

8. Alonzo Mourning, C, Heat

Outlook: A healthy season for Mourning should jump start his stock. Can Pat Riley really afford to let him go?

9. Jerry Stackhouse, SG, Wizards (PO)

Outlook: If he can get the Wizards into the playoffs his stock will be high, but who will have the max money to throw his way? The Wizards have other players in mind and no one in their right mind is going to give him the max contract he'll demand.

10. Karl Malone, PF, Jazz

Outlook: He turns 40 in July but the Mailman continues to deliver. He won't get a huge, long-term contract, but he can still help a playoff contender. But can Malone really leave Utah?

11. Lamar Odom, SF, Clippers ®

Outlook: If he's healthy and gets his head on straight, he's a Top 5 talent. Pat Riley loves him. Will the Heat give him some love?

12. Wally Szczerbiak, SG, T-Wolves ®

Outlook: Shoots too much but he's instant offense. Can the T-Wolves afford to let him slip away and get nothing in return? He may get an extension before the October deadline.

13. Juwan Howard, SF/PF, Nuggets

Outlook: He'll take a huge paycut and Howard can still help a number of teams. He's another guy Riley has coveted for a while and the price might be right.

14. Ron Artest, SG Pacers ®

Outlook: He's tough, athletic and a little crazy. Won't get max money, but the Pacers will throw some love his direction.

15. Jonathan Bender, SF, Pacers ®

Outlook: It's tough to call. If he has a breakout year, he'll jump way up this list. But when you look at the Pacers' depth chart, how does he see more than 20 minutes a game?

16. Richard Hamilton, SG, Pistons ®

Outlook: If he has a big year in Detroit, the Pistons are trapped in the same dilemma they faced with Stackhouse. Then again, with the free-agent talent pool so deep, there may not be any money left by the time Rip bubbles to the top.

17. Jason Terry, SG, Hawks ®

Outlook: 6-foot-2 shooting guard anyone? Anyone?

18. Brad Miller, C, Pacers

Outlook: It's not a great year for big men in free agency or the draft. That could mean very big things for Miller if he has a solid year in Indiana.

19. Clifford Robinson, SF, Pistons

Outlook: His age and his playoff woes likely add up to a serious pay cut next summer.

20. Elden Campbell, Hornets

Outlook: See Brad Miller comment.

Note: Several other potential free agents, including Antonio McDyess and Theo Ratliff, have already indicated that they will not exercise their opt-outs next summer.

Wizards-Pistons trade muddles up the East

The Wizards announced Wednesday that Michael Jordan is returning with a vengeance this season. No, there wasn't a press conference or a leak by a top team official.

A big trade did all of the talking. The Wizards shipped off promising young guard Richard Hamilton, along with Hubert Davis and Bobby Simmons, for Jerry Stackhouse Wednesday in an effort to get the team ready for a serious run in the playoffs.

Will it work?

Stackhouse is coming off an All-Star season that saw him sacrifice his offense a little in an effort to fit in with the defensive concepts of coach Rick Carlisle. He's capable of dropping 30 points a night on an opponent, ranked seventh in the league in free-throw attempts and was among the top shooting guards in assists and rebounds last season.

In just about every statistical and intangible category, Stackhouse is the better player. But does he really make the Wizards a contender? I'm skeptical. The Wizards will now sport, arguably, the worst shooting starting five in the NBA next season.

Stackhouse shot 39 percent from the field and just 28 percent from the three-point line. New point guard Larry Hughes was just as bad. He shot 42 percent from the field and 19 percent from beyond the arc. Bryon Russell? 38 percent from the field, 34 percent from three. Kwame Brown? 38 percent from the field, 0 percent from three.

And then, of course, there is Jordan, whose 41 percent from the field and 19 percent from the three-point line isn't going to scare anyone. That's miserable. While there's already talk about Jordan and Stack playing together, who will they drive and dish too?

One Western Conference coach told Insider Wednesday night the defensive strategy on the Wizards will be pretty simple. You zone them up and force them to make their open jumpers. Expect Brendan Haywood and Jahidi White's offensive rebounding numbers to be pretty amazing.

If that isn't bad enough, the Wizards' two best players happen to play the same position. They still have no frontline to speak of. Christian Laettner, Etan Thomas, Brown, Haywood and White are nice, but none of them will command a double team in the low post. With a shaky perimeter game and no low-post scoring, exactly how are the Wizards supposed to compete?

Now here's the capper. While some claim chemistry is overrated, who can forget the Stackhouse-Laettner fist fight on the Pistons' team plane in 2000? Stackhouse reportedly landed several blows to Laettner's head, giving him a black eye. The fight was reportedly over a card game and the players hated each other after that. Can't wait to see how that reunion pans out.

Jordan makes up for almost all of those sins. Yes, he's healthy and yes, those close to him believe he'll have more stamina this year, but can you really bank on the hope that a 39-year-old player will play 82 games this season?

The deal is just as curious for the Pistons. Sure, they didn't want to pay Stackhouse a fortune next summer, but Hamilton will be in a similar situation. He'll be a restricted free agent and unlike this year, there will be teams with money to spend. While Hamilton won't command the same type of salary that Stack probably would, did the Pistons just take at least a minor step backward?

After a surprising 50-win season last year, the team lost its top scorer and one of its best defenders. Hamilton is one of the best mid-range shooters in the NBA, but his 32 percent shooting from three isn't that big of an improvement. His defense and passing abilities are inferior to Stackhouse and he doesn't have the ability to post up weaker guards the way Stackhouse did. Davis will give them an outside sharpshooter, but with Jon Barry on the roster, exactly when will he see minutes?

Both teams will save some money by pulling the trigger on this trade. The Wizards now should have roughly $12 million worth of cap room next summer, meaning they can now offer a max contract to a top-tier free agent. But the only way they'll get the money is by renouncing their rights to Stackhouse. In effect that makes Stack a one-year hired gun. If he starts shooting the lights out to prove he's still loaded, the Wizards will be in for a long, long year.

So where will they rank in the Eastern Conference? A sketchy picture just got more muddied. The Wizards got a little stronger and the Pistons took a small step back. Given that every team expect the Nets and Hornets seem to have a fatal flaw, it isn't easy predicting who will rise from the muck.

Here's my premature take on how the playoff teams stack up in the East. I still don't think the Wizards qualify.

1. New Jersey Nets 2. New Orleans Hornets 3. Indiana Pacers 4. Detroit Pistons 5. Orlando Magic 6. Boston Celtics 7. Milwaukee Bucks 8. Miami Heat

And I believe that the Raptors, Hawks, 76ers and Knicks are all more talented than the Wizards. As always, let the stone throwing begin.

A Deal That Could Make A Break With the Past

Michael Wilbon / Washington Post

Dumars rolls the dice; Stack pays the price

Drew Sharp / Detroit Free-Press

Pistons swap Stack for Hamilton

Perry A. Farrell / Detroit Free-Press

Wizards Get Stackhouse From Detroit

Steve Wyche / Washington Post

When's Shaq coming back?

Good news for Lakers fans, bad news for just about everyone else in the NBA.

Shaquille O'Neal's toe surgery went off without a hitch Wednesday.

"Everything went extremely well today," Dr. Robert Mohr told the L.A. Times. "Surgery went as scheduled, as planned. Hopefully, with the passage of time, Mother Nature and active rehab, he should be back better than he was at the end of last season."

"You need about 60 to 80 degrees of motion for athletic activity," Mohr said. "When we freed up all the bone spurs and remodeled the joint, we reestablished the availability of motion for him. As far as the future, we're very confident he's going to have a complete recovery. From what I've seen, I see no reason not to continue with that belief."

Expect Shaq to wait about six weeks before he can begin running and another two to four weeks before he's ready to play.

Operation Goes Well on Shaq Toe

Tim Brown / Los Angeles Times

Peep Show

Pacers: Forward Austin Croshere likely will miss most of the team's training camp and preseason after undergoing surgery to repair a stress fracture in his right foot. Pacers president Donnie Walsh has been looking into trade possibilities for Croshere, but said he's not desperate to trade Croshere. "I value him; he's a very good player," Walsh told the Indianapolis Star. "I didn't take the tack you just get rid of the guy. It [a trade] has to make sense."

Pistons: Maybe Argentine point guard Pepe Sanchez won't be joining the Pistons after all. The team had come to terms with the point guard, but an unusual out close in his contract with his team in Spain is throwing a wrench in the whole process. "At best, it's 50-50 that he is going to be on our team," John Hammond, Pistons director of player personnel, told the Detroit News. "The out clause in his contract isn't as clear as we thought it would be."

Hawks: Is this the year that the Hawks fly? "You can see the difference in their attitude, the way they feel about themselves and about each other," coach Lon Kruger told the Atlanta Journal Constitution. "There's so much more confidence on this team than we've had the last two years. They believe they can win."

Surgery on right foot sidelines Croshere

Mark Montieth / Indianapolis Star

Sanchez signing hits snag

Chris McCosky / Detroit News

Growing sense of optimism

Jeffrey Denberg / Atlanta Journal-Constitution

[Traceman]

He continues to call JT a SG when its CLEAR he is our PG. In addition, he calls Jonathan Bender a higher FA prospect than JT? That's just down right insulting! JT has averaged over 19 ppg for 2 consecutive seasons and Bender has YET to average even 8 ppg. In addition, even if JT is a SG (he's not), what position does Bender play? Bender has not proven that he can play ANY position effectively. Actually, there are several other players on the list ahead of JT that I don't think should be but putting Bender ahead of him is just preposterous. Bender is obviously nowhere near the player JT is right now so Ford has to be basing his ranking on Bender's potential. The funny thing is that Bender could double his output from last year and he still wouldn't be where JT is. In fact, I'd take DJ over Bender and I damn sure wouldn't take DJ over JT right now.

[jaywalker72]

The Bender adulation is a little perplexing. How do people spend so much time bashing and dissecting DerMarr Johnson, yet they completely give Bender a pass?

DJ has accomplished more than Bender already, and Bender had a one year NBA head start. Interesting.

As for JT, sigh, you would think a man would make a phone call to ANYONE on the Hawks to determing JT's status.

Even still, I wouldn't have ranked him a whole lot higher, if I were an outsider.

Yes, Bender is obvious, but I think that everyone else on that list would garner more attention if the price tag is taken into account.

Sure, Juwan Howard doesn't offer as much as Terry would, but hey, he shouldn't cost as much either.

[capstone21]

All this says is that everyone underestimates us and JT is one of the more underrated players in our league.

JT is our little secret. Come playoff time they will all know about him and the Hawks.

[Guest]

Yikes!Artest and Bender have more

value than JT?Juwan Howard too?

The reason Bender gets the nod over

DJ is because he has been to the

playoffs.

[Traceman]

You said:

"The reason Bender gets the nod over DJ is because he has been to the playoffs."

Based on that rationale, does Bender get the nod over Reef and Elton Brand as well?

[Guest]

This is what Chad Ford is probably thinking.I

have NEVER seen one thing impressive about

Bender.I think he is a bench scrub right now.

[cyman3]

"JT is our little secret. Come playoff time they will all know about him and the Hawks."

SO TRUE! thats how i see it!

[mdawg]

In his chat, Ford said that he's not sure if JT is a SG or PG, and so he's not sure what his place in the league is. I would think that there is a place somewhere for a good jump shooter who averages close to 20ppg.