Diesel's Offseason # 7...

[Diesel]

Trade Marvin/2nd (2008) to PTL for Jack/1st (2007).

Draft Hibbert or JianLian.

Trade Salim to Phoenix for one of their late picks.

Draft Morris Almond.

New Coach: Terry Porter.

That's about all I would do.

JJ/JJ/JS/SW/Hibbert.

[bfwolf]

Ummmm not to be critical, but you think Portland is going to trade Jack and a top 10 pick in this year's draft for Marvin Williams and a 2nd round pick in next year's draft? Not a snowball's chance in hell.

I'd draft Marvin for Jack straight up.

[Diesel]

Do you think Atlanta is going to give up a #2 pick over all for what a #23 pick overall without some other form of compensation?

[Iman]

I'd do it and I dont think it's out of the question to see Portland and Phoenix do those moves either. I think Marvin still has good trade value. Everyone knew he was a project.

[DrReality]

Never happen. BK would be admitting he's wrong, and that's not gonna happen . . . . . at least yet. The jury is still out on Marvin and his late season surge definately will keep him in an Atl uniform at least until next year's trading deadline.

[bfwolf]

I'm not saying it's GOING to happen. I'm saying I'd do it. The fact that Marvin Williams was a higher draft pick than Jack SHOULD be irrelevant. That's what they were worth 2 years ago, which has nothing to do with what they are worth today. Marvin has fallen short of expectations so far and Jack has exceeded expectations. Personally, I think Jack would be more valuable to this team than Marvin.

But I think that a trade of Williams for Jack is highly unlikely because of the way the two teams will view the players. Atlanta will live in the world of 2 years ago, where Marvin was much more valuable than Jack, and will want add'l compensation to give up Marvin for Jack. Portland will live in the world of today, where Jack is outplaying Marvin, and would be more interested in something akin to a straight-up trade. Closing that gap is probably impossible.

[Diesel]

Actually, Marvin has steadily improved towards his potential. Jack has played well.. But PTL needs a Swingman and Atlanta needs a PG. Moreover, with the emergence of Roy, PTL may be willing to deal Jack (because of the presence of Sergio) to cover their needs. Add to that that Marvin is from the NW...

Since the Allstar break, Marvin is 13.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg, and shooting 46% from the field.

By comparison, since the allstar break, Jack is 9.4 ppg, 5.1 apg, and shooting 43.5% from the field.

Hell, in our disorganize offense, AJ has been 8.8 ppg, 4.4 apg, shooting 41.6% from the field.

So while Jack has some value, he isn't on Marvin's level right now.. moreover, PTL won't find a swingman in this draft as good as Marvin.

[BusBoyIsBack]

No way would I trade Marvin for Jack.

Marvin has too much upside to trade away.

More importantly you could get just as good a PG as Jack in the draft with Indy's pick. Actually you could probably get better.

So you address PG and give Marvin a legit shot to progress.

[Diesel]

It's not Marvin for Jack straight up. We also exchange their 1st rounder this year and our 2nd rounder next year.

[bfwolf]

Maybe, MAYBE we could finagle a trade where we give up Marvin and Indy's pick (assuming we keep it) for Jack and Portland's pick. I would jump on that trade in a heartbeat (as would many others here from the previous discussion of this trade). The only way we could pull this off is if Portland really saw significant upside in Marvin, which they may or may not see. If we got Portland's pick, then there's a great chance that we would get our pick of the litter of PGs in this draft.

There's a decent chance that Jeff Green will be available with Portland's pick, and I would rather have him than Marvin Williams if I was Portland, so don't be so sure they can't get somebody of Marvin's quality in the draft. Marvin's quality isn't so good in case you haven't noticed.

There is no way that Portland would consider trading us Jack and a top 10 pick for Marvin and next year's 2nd rounder.

[Diesel]

Very soon, the Indy pick and the PTL pick will be closer than 3 positions. If Indy finishes 11 and PTL finishes 8 what value is there?

Marvin is better than Jack and will be much better.

Acie Law could probably be picked at 11.

There's no love in that pick unless Indy gets to keep it's first this year.

Then the deal becomes doable.

[thesheedera]

If we could pull it off I'd be all for it, and I don't doubt for a minute that both Marvin and Jack would be ecstatic to get a chance to play close to home. If you're gonna be on a young team that loses a lot, might as well be close to home.

I like Jack a lot. I think we could get a better "upside" pg in this draft, but it would be difficult to find a steadier guy that's at least a trusty starter at the spot. I'd take Jack over all of our current PGs all day long.

[Johnnybravo4]

Haven't we already learned about picking up a losing team's backup point guard who can't shoot?

[Guest Walter]

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Ummmm not to be critical, but you think Portland is going to trade Jack and a top 10 pick in this year's draft for Marvin Williams and a 2nd round pick in next year's draft? Not a snowball's chance in hell.

I'd draft Marvin for Jack straight up.

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They might give up a few slots in this year's draft but that's it.

Jack/Portland's pick for MW/Indy pick.

That's as good as it gets in this deal IMO.

W

[bfwolf]

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Very soon, the Indy pick and the PTL pick will be closer than 3 positions. If Indy finishes 11 and PTL finishes 8 what value is there?

Marvin is better than Jack and will be much better.

Acie Law could probably be picked at 11.

There's no love in that pick unless Indy gets to keep it's first this year.

Then the deal becomes doable.

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I fundamentally disagree with your assertion that Marvin is better than Jack and will be much better. You quote some half year numbers, but Jack's full year PER is better than Marvin's, which is identical to last year's (i.e. he hasn't improved). Jack is also a better defensive player, which is not captured in PERs. I'm not saying PERs are the end all be all, but I truly believe that Jack is a better player than Marvin right now. In 3 or 4 years time, Marvin will probably be a better player than Jack, but I believe only marginally so, and at an easier position to fill. And who wants to wait another 3 or 4 years for their investment to pay off?

I also disagree that there's no value moving up from 11 to 8. I think it's very likely that at pick 8 we'll have our pick of the litter among PGs, but at pick 11, there will already be a PG off the board.

ALSO consider that Jack makes significantly less than Marvin. Marvin's going to make 4.5MM next year while Jack will make 1.2MM. So that's 3.3MM that we can pay somebody else...not exactly chump change.

[AtLaS]

Jack isn't that great, he can't shoot, and he doesn't have much potential for improvement. Having a PG that can't hit open shots is a huge liability, unless they overly make up for it in other areas. He can run a team, but he's not exactly a playmaker or someone that would run the fast break well. Why do you think Portland is willing to get rid of him? They are pretty high on Sergio, and Roy can play a good amount of PG also. If his numbers were so great (especially being a 2nd year player), they wouldn't be looking or even think about looking to trade him. Most Portland fans would agree to a Childress/Jack trade.

I'd much rather try to get Law/Conley anyway, they will both be better, especially Law..

[bfwolf]

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Jack isn't that great, he can't shoot, and he doesn't have much potential for improvement. Having a PG that can't hit open shots is a huge liability, unless they overly make up for it in other areas. He can run a team, but he's not exactly a playmaker or someone that would run the fast break well. Why do you think Portland is willing to get rid of him? They are pretty high on Sergio, and Roy can play a good amount of PG also. If his numbers were so great (especially being a 2nd year player), they wouldn't be looking or even think about looking to trade him. Most Portland fans would agree to a Childress/Jack trade.

I'd much rather try to get Law/Conley anyway, they will both be better, especially Law..

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I don't disagree with anything you said, Atlas. Jack isn't that great, but he's not shabby either. His jump shooting is most definitely a liability. He's certainly never going to be an all-star. And I'd rather have Law or Conley as well (although it should be noted that Conley can't shoot either).

But the question is: what's so great about Marvin? I would agree that he's got more potential than Jack, but I'm long past the point where I think he's going to be an All Star someday. I don't see him even sniffing 20 ppg. His defense will probably never be as good as Jack's.

I just look at the 2 guys and see one who's a little better today and another who will be a little better in the future. I don't see indications that Marvin Williams will be a star, so I fail to see why Marvin should have huge trade value. Jack is a worthwhile piece, and if we can get him and move up in the draft a few spots for the price of Marvin Williams, I am more than happy to make the deal.

Also, on your Childress point, yes, I'm sure that they would be happy to part with Jack for Childress. Childress is a good player. I don't quite undertand why people on this board have turned on him and now think that Marvin Williams is a better prospect. Frankly, I don't see it. If you made me bet my life on whether Childress or Marvin will have a better PER in the 2009-2010 NBA season, I'd pick Childress. And there's no doubt that Chill is a better player today.

[AtLaS]

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But the question is: what's so great about Marvin? I would agree that he's got more potential than Jack, but I'm long past the point where I think he's going to be an All Star someday. I don't see him even sniffing 20 ppg.

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I'm one of the biggest Marvin bashers on this site, but not even "sniffing" 20 ppg? He's already at 12.5, and he's only 20, with NO POINT GUARD. It's definitely possible for him to average 20 ppg and not THAT unlikely. I just bash it for the fact that BK took another SF after overdrafting the position the year before, and considering how unproven Marvin was.

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His defense will probably never be as good as Jack's.

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Jack is not THAT great a defender.

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Also, on your Childress point, yes, I'm sure that they would be happy to part with Jack for Childress. Childress is a good player. I don't quite undertand why people on this board have turned on him and now think that Marvin Williams is a better prospect. Frankly, I don't see it. If you made me bet my life on whether Childress or Marvin will have a better PER in the 2009-2010 NBA season, I'd pick Childress. And there's no doubt that Chill is a better player today.

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Noone has turned on Childress. But Childress isn't going to get much better. Marvin is already almost as good as Childress, except FG%, but that's due to the fact the Childress EXCLUSIVELY scores on assists. He's a great bench player but will never be anything SIGNIFICANTLY more.

Marvin was picked #2 overall, and he was expected to take a few years, so I'd like to see if he actually realizes some of that potential before I deal him. BK already made a huge mistake drafting him, don't make ANOTHER mistake by dealing him to early, and be stuck with a potential'd out Jarrett Jack.

Plus Marvin is good enough to get a pick to draft Acie Law or Conley, so I'd much rather do that or just use our Indy pick on a PG. Jack doesn't fit our type of team that well IMO.