Friday Insider

February 28, 2003

Inside the NBA Draft: Sophomore slump

by Chad Ford

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Where have all of the sophomores gone? That's the question NBA scouts have been asking themselves for months. It's been years since the college senior class, or the junior class for that matter, had much to offer the NBA in the way of blue-chip propsects. As players begin entering the draft younger and younger, teams over the past few years have begun to rely on college sophomores to fill out the bulk of the lottery.

Why sophomores? Having two years of college under your belt seems like just the right seasoning. If players stay in school any longer (with a few notable exceptions) teams begin to over-analyze. They start picking apart a player and become obsessed with his flaws. If a player leaves earlier, the team that drafts him takes a huge risk. College freshmen rarely get enough playing time to make discernible improvements, and the high school kids are almost always big projects.

But this year is different. The top players from the high school class of 2000 already have defected for the NBA. Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Dajuan Wagner, DeSagana Diop and Jamal Sampson -- the cream of the 2000 crop -- are already living large in the NBA.

The players who are left all have substantial issues that keep NBA teams wondering about their stock.

Okafor's road block

Emeka Okafor is hot prospect, but scouts think he'll stay in school one more year.

At the top of the sophomore list is UConn power forward Emeka Okafor. Okafor, a 6-foot-9, 240-pound shot-blocking machine, has scouts drooling. He has an NBA body, inside toughness, is a strong rebounder and scouts have been impressed with how he's improved his game on the offensive end of the court.

"He reminds me a little bit of a young Alonzo Mourning," one Eastern Conference scout told Insider. "He really is a man among boys out there right now. He's very smart, understands how to play the game and has really improved from last year to this year. I wish he was a little taller, but that's about the only knock right now. With the lack of tough big men in the draft, I think he's a top five player, no question."

Another scout had a more impressive comparison. "He reminds me a little bit of Bill Russell. When he's out there mixing it up, he always has a major impact on the game."

Okafor is averaging 15.5 ppg, 10.9 rpg and leads the nation with 4.8 bpg. He's already added a soft shooting touch and a nice mid-range jumper to his game this season. He's shooting an impressive 57 percent from the field. The Huskies are 13-1 when he scores 15 or more points per game.

Now here's the catch. Okafor, who is an exceptional student, is actually on pace to graduate, a la Jay Williams, after his junior year. The preliminary word is that Okafor will return to UConn for his junior season, regardless of where he's projected in the draft.

Most scouts think that's a pretty smart decision. Given how much his game has blossomed offensively this season, another year honing his moves on the block could propel him to the top of the draft next season.

According to Okafor, he just needs more touches in the post. "If I see I have an advantage, obviously, I should call for it more," Okafor told the Hartford Courant. "Whatever to help my team get going, just call for it, 'Ball, ball, ball, ball, ball.' And then in turn, I have to do my part, do something with it, either score, or if I get double-teamed, kick it back out, just be more productive with it."

"You never want to discourage a kid to stay in school," a Western Conference scout said. "There's always room for improvement. I think some kids are scared to stay in, because the longer they're there, the greater the chance we see something we don't like. If Okafor stays, he probably will get picked apart. But if he continues the learning curve, he should be really awesome."

T.J. Ford's sixth sense

Little T.J. Ford has NBA teams thinking big.

What do Damon Stoudamire, Brevin Knight, Travis Best and Speedy Claxton all have in common?

They are the only guys in the last 10 years under 6-feet tall to be chosen in the first round of the NBA Draft. Of those four players, only Stoudamire made it into the lottery.

The little guys are a dying breed. Currently, only nine players in the NBA are under 6-feet. In the last five years, only one player under 6-feet, Claxton, has been drafted in the first round.

And that is what makes the buzz around Texas point guard T.J. Ford all the more remarkable. NBA scouts are absolutely in love with the 5-foot-10, 165-pound speedster.

"He's the best pure point guard in the draft, hands down," one Western Conference scout began. "He has an amazing ability to see the floor and get the ball to the right guy. When he does deliver it, it's with laser-like accuracy."

An Eastern Conference scout also couldn't help from gushing a bit. "I think right now he's the fastest player in basketball, pro or college. Who's going to be able to guard him? Yeah, he'll be posted up on the defensive end, but the mismatches he creates on the offensive end will more than make up for it."

One Eastern Conference GM, who had the chance to talk to Ford's father, Leo, recounts this conversation. "I was just amazed by the basketball maturity of his kid and he says to me, 'He sees things that we don't see.' I got chills when he said that. He's right. T.J. Ford sees things that other good basketball players just don't see."

Call it a kind of point guard sixth sense. The same stuff that fuels Jason Kidd's mojo.

So is it possible Ford, who's averaging 14.8 ppg, 7 apg and 2.2 spg for the sixth-ranked team in the nation, can defy the odds and make it into the lottery?

"It depends," the same GM goes on to say. "You have to have the right team to have a point guard that size. But if he's on the right team, playing the right type of up tempo style, he could be real special."

Of course, Ford isn't perfect. His outside jumper is suspect, and at times, he's been turnover prone this season. But teams just don't seem that concerned. It's so rare to find a point guard who loves to make his teammates better.

"Two points is two points," Ford said earlier this season. "It doesn't matter who scores them. I could go out there and just try to shoot and score every time, but what does that do for the team? It's about winning."

The best of the rest

The rest of the sophomore class, however, isn't wowing anyone. Minnesota's Rick Rickert, Syracuse's Hakim Warrick and UConn's Ben Gordon are getting the most buzz:

Rickert may test the NBA draft waters

After a slow start to the season, Rickert has put himself on scout's radar with his strong play in February. He's averaging 22.5 ppg over the Gophers' last four games and is averaging 17.3 ppg in Big Ten play. The 6-foot-11 forward has the inside-outside game teams covet, but there are plenty of scouts who still wonder if he isn't a bit of tweener.

"He's got a long way to go to be strong enough to play in the post in the league, and he doesn't really have a great perimeter game," an Eastern Conference scout said. "But I think more teams are worried about him being a potential defensive liability. He's not quick enough to guard wing players, and he's not strong enough to hold his position in the post. He's a little bit of project."

Rickert says he's already weighing his draft options. Scouts are projecting him a possible mid-first-rounder. "Basketball is probably the priority for me, and that's not to say that school isn't a priority, but there is a lot more upside with basketball," Rickert told the Minneapolis Star Tribune this week. "I'm just going to look at everything and see what's best for me. If it's coming back to school, then I'm coming back to school. If it's going the NBA, then I'm going to the NBA."

Warrick may been overshadowed all season by freshman Carmelo Anthony, but there's an upside to that. As scouts have packed the rafters to get a good look at Anthony, they've all been pleasantly surprised by Warrick.

Now all he has to do is shed that nasty Darius Miles look-alike label. At the start of the season, Warrick probably couldn't get a better compliment. Now, it's not so good.

The slender 6-foot-8, 205 small forward, like Miles, is a great athlete who delivers unbelievable hops and rim rattling dunks. But teams worry about his outside jumper and his strength -- the same two knocks that Miles hasn't been able to shake.

Warrick, however, is working on it. He hit the weight room hard and improved his bench press by 80 pounds. He also added 20 pounds to his big frame. He's also developed a sweet 10- to 12-foot jumper. Warrick says the strength training has made all the difference in the world to him this season.

"I'm finishing plays that I would have been knocked to the floor on last season," he told the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle. "My upper body and my legs feel a lot stronger than they did at this point last season."

Still scouts say he's better off developing his game in college. "I think if he came out right now," one Western Conference scout told Insider, "he'd be a mid- to late-first-round pick based on potential. The athleticism is there, and he's shown that he's willing to work on his game. Right now he reminds me a little of Eddie Robinson. I think another year at Syracuse would do him a world of good. He's a bit of a late bloomer."

UConn's Gordon is quickly climbing the point guard ranks. His 20.4 ppg and 5 apg averages has really turned some heads. According to one scout, Gordon already has eclipsed highly ranked Notre Dame sophomore point guard Chris Thomas.

"I think Gordan is probably a better pro prospect," a Western Conference scout said. "Thomas is great college player, but I think he doesn't really have a pro game. The way Gordan shoots the ball, I think he's got a better shot. He doesn't have the floor vision of Thomas, but I think he's learning. I think he probably needs one more year at the point. If he excels, he's probably a lottery pick. If he comes out now, I think most teams will wonder if he's really ready to run a team."

That's the consensus concern by scouts for most young point guards. "It's such a tough position to play in the NBA. It's an adjustment for kids who've played the point their whole lives. I think it's a much bigger stretch for guys who are trying something new."

Scouts are also keeping a close eye on Florida forward David Lee. They love his athleticism and quickness with the ball, but most of them wish he would develop more of a perimeter game. Lee hasn't taken a 3-pointer all year. That could be his downfall.

You can blame part of that on the role Lee has played this year for the Gators. Coach Billy Donovan has asked Lee to step in at center and replace Udonis Haslem, a real wide body. Lee has been great on the boards and a tough defender for Florida this season, but NBA scouts claim he's in for a major position change when he gets to the pros. The 6-foot-9, 240 pounder is averaging 10.4 ppg and 7.1 rpg this season, but he gets most of his points on dunks.

"You look at him and he reminds you a little bit of another Florida guy, Mike Miller," one scout said. "The difference is that he doesn't have the perimeter game. But that's a big, big difference."

Among the other sophomore prospects to keep an eye on? North Carolina's Jawad Williams, North Carolina State's Julius Hodge, Colorado big man David Harrison, Alabama point guard Mo Williams and Gonzaga's import from France, Ronny Turiaf.

Rickert's fine play keeps people asking: Stay or NBA?

Jeff Shelman / Minneapolis Star Tribune

Final games to test Rickert

Mike Wells / St. Paul Pioneer Press

Warrick having a soaring season

Scott Pitoniak / Rochester Democrat & Chronicle

A center in a forward's body

Antonya English / St. Petersburg Times

Scott, Kidd claim they have no problem

One day after a report from the Newark Star-Ledger questioned whether Jason Kidd and Byron Scott's crumbling relationship may lead to a divorce this summer, Kidd and Scott both came out Thursday and claimed that everything's just fine.

"There is no problem between Jason and I," Scott told the N.Y. Daily News. "We have had a pretty good relationship since he has been here. He hasn't talked to me about there being a problem or anything like that."

"I know Jason well enough," Scott added. "If he feels there is a problem he will come and talk to me. I think we are still close. Last year was such a joy ride because of the way everything went. Everything was pretty smooth. This year with the expectations and ups and downs that we have been playing with, of course there have been some guys that are going to be a little agitated by us not playing well."

Kidd didn't speak as long on the subject, but his message seemed to be clear. "Coach and I have a great relationship," Kidd told the N.Y. Post.

Even if their relationship was rocky, GM Rod Thorn said Kidd's close bond with Nets assistant Eddie Jordan makes up for it.

"Byron allows him [Jordan] to do a lot. He has taken advantage of a guy who knows a lot, knows what he's doing. I don't see that as a weakness," team president Rod Thorn said. "You've got coaches so paranoid about assistants they don't want them to do anything. Byron is not like that."

Still, there's cause for concern. The Post reports that sources inside the Nets confirmed that the team is worried about the relationship. The Bergen Record is reporting that the team has told Scott to keep his mouth shut if he feels the urge to start criticizing Kidd like he did after the loss to Miami earlier in the week.

Here's the rub for Scott: Friction with Kidd is trouble

Dave D'Alessandro / Newark Star-Ledger

Byron: Everything's OK with me & Kidd

Ohm Youngmisuk / New York Daily News

Net Woes Aren't Just Kidd Stuff

Fred Kerber / New York Post

Nets deny a rift

Steve Adamek / Bergen Record

Will the Mavs or Sixers land Tyrone Hill?

Tyrone Hill got his official release from the Cavs on Thursday. But there's still some question about where he'll land once he clears waivers Saturday.

Suddenly Hill, a 34-year-old power forward, is the hottest name in the NBA.

"What's the phase: 'One man's garbage is another man's treasure?' " teammate Michael Stewart told the Morning Journal. "He wasn't playing here. He was stuck on the bench. A playoff team will pick him up and he'll help somebody down the stretch. He's playoff-tested and has been to the (NBA) Finals."

From all accounts, he's narrowed his choices down to two, the 76ers and Mavs.

"I'll go to the team with the best chance to get to the Finals," he said. "Both situations would be great for me. Dallas does everything first class. Philly does things the same way. They have a franchise player in A.I. (Allen Iverson) I know the system and the city. I'm blessed. I could have been waived and no one wanted me."

Philly was thought to be the front-runner early on. Coach Larry Brown made a pitch for Hill before the trade deadline and has openly pined for the 6-foot-8 rebounder to return to Philly.

"Tyrone knows our team," Brown told the Philadelphia Daily News."He'd be a great option. I just hope he makes up his mind quickly."

However, Dallas' bid may be too good to pass up. After the Mavs got brutalized again on the inside Thursday night against the Kings, coach Don Nelson is more desperate than ever for a gritty rebounder like Hill. Hill could be looking at going from zero playing time on the worst team in the league to major minutes on the best team. Go figure.

Hill's agent, Mark Bartelstein, said that Hill will probably decide today which team he'll join.

Hill is let go, Coles is next

Bob Finnan / Willoughby News-Herald

Sixers court Tyrone Hill, but he could go from Cavs to Mavs

Phil Jasner / Philadelphia Daily News

Veteran forward might join Mavs

Dwain Price / Fort Worth Star-Telegram

Peep Show

Los Angeles Lakers: More bad news for the rest of the NBA. Now that Kobe's playing at an MVP level and the Lakers are thumping people again, Shaq also thinks it's time he reasserted himself. "I'm starting to get it back," he told the L.A. Times. "I'm starting to get my legs back, I'm starting to get my touch back, and guys are looking for me." Kobe says it's all part of the plan. "I know Shaq, he picks his spots sometimes during the season and especially now," said Bryant. "He really tries to conserve himself for the playoffs or big games. So I wouldn't concern myself too much. I know he's pacing himself."

Indiana Pacers: Ron Artest's suspension is over and he's ready to join the team. Reggie Miller, Artest's biggest supporter, said the team is trying to help Artest figure out a few boundaries. "He plays hard and sometimes he crosses the line," Miller told the Indianapolis Star. "As a teammate, you have to pull him back. But he has to understand when he feels like he's crossing the line, and that's where we are -- in somewhat of a gray area."

Los Angeles Clippers: Michael Olowokandi claims he's hasn't quit on his team. In fact, he still hasn't closed the door on re-signing with the Clips this summer. "In all honesty, it would be foolish to close down all my options," Olowokandi told the L.A. Times. "When I said the things I've said, I went on what happened last summer and what's happened since I've been a Clipper. If they are serious, there's absolutely no reason not to try it with the Clippers."

Miami Heat: Pat Riley says the Heat are not going to "tank the season" just to get their hands on LeBron James. "I think that's a disgrace," he told the Sun Sentinel. "If you try to do that, I think you're disgracing the sport. While we'd like to get the best pick we can get, you've got 12 guys that want to win. Those guys could care less about it. And I think your responsibility is to fans and to play. So, no, I would never think that way."

Seattle SuperSonics: The Gary Payton digs keep coming. Jerome James is the latest Sonic to claim that Ray Allen is a big improvment over the glove. "The first game," James told the Tacoma News Tribune, "Ray said, 'Look, I've never had a big man who, when I drive, dunks the ball like you dunk the ball. Every time I drive, come to the basket, because I am looking for you.' I mean, I have been dying to hear something like that. You notice in the game, I see Ray, I start tiptoeing toward the basket, ready to get the pass."

Washington Wizards: The team took another injury blow on Thursday when it lost starting point guard Tyronn Lue to a separated shoulder. That leaves rookie Juan Dixon as the only healthy point guard on the roster. Lue is expected to miss at least 10 days.

Atlanta Hawks: Atlanta point guard Jason Terry is getting desperate for a win. "We've just got to find a way to win a game. That's what we have to do," Terry told the Atlanta Journal Constitution. The Hawks have achieved 13 of their 21 victories by 10 points or fewer. Three of these came in overtime, a total of five have been won by two points or fewer. Nothing's come easy for them this season.

Lakers Going Back to Shaq

Tim Brown / Los Angeles Times

Artest will play tonight

Sekou Smith / Indianapolis Star

Pacers need to get help for Artest's problems -- now

Bob Kravitz / Indianapolis Star

Gentry Comments Surprise Olowokandi

Elliott Teaford / Los Angeles Times

It's tempting, but 'We're not going to tank,' Riley insists

Ira Winderman / South Florida Sun-Sentinel

Confidence is everything

Frank Hughes / Tacoma News Tribune

Cheap shots come easy with Payton not around

Steve Kelley / Seattle Times

Lue Suffers Separated Left Shoulder

Steve Wyche / Washington Post

Hawks getting desperate

Jeffrey Denberg / Atlanta Journal-Constitution