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Mailbag: Who's getting the max this summer?

by Chad Ford

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Also Below: Is Kwame to blame for Wizards' woes? | Malone will play the free-agent market | Peep Show

It looks like most of you are already bored with the regular season. While an occasional question about a playoff team jumps out here or there, most of you already seem obsessed with next season. If you're a Nuggets or Cavs fan, I can hardly blame you ...

Q: Chad, in terms of free agency it seems that a large hit has been rendered on NBA teams by the salary cap being set below expectations. Realistically, how many players will be able to sign max contracts this summer? And, who do you see as possibly signing at less than market value? The Wizards clearly must wait until Stackhouse makes a decision on his opt-out, but anticipating he does not opt, will the almost $7 million they have under the cap be appetizing to anyone?

-- Jay Parker, San Antonio

FORD: It's really up in the air at this point. Assuming the cap stays at $40.2 million next season, we know the Nuggets will have around $17 million in cap room. San Antonio's looking at about $14 million in cap room assuming Tim Duncan doesn't opt out. (He's actually better off financially by sticking with the contract he has.) Utah will be around $16 million under the cap, assuming John Stockton and Karl Malone either retire or decide to play elsewhere. Miami's looking at around $5 million in cap room. The Pacers and Pistons will also have room, but they'll use it up re-signing their own free agents. The Clippers will have room too, but no one has a clue what they'd do with it.

All of that means that only a handful of players will get the max. I think Jason Kidd, Jermaine O'Neal and Tim Duncan (if he opts out) are the only players with a realistic shot at the max next season. Elton Brand would also fit in this group, but he plans on taking the Clippers' one-year tender offer and getting his big money in 2004. Andre Miller, Gilbert Arenas, Gary Payton, Michael Olowokandi, Lamar Odom, Corey Maggette, Juwan Howard, Brad Miller and Rasho Nesterovic all have a good shot at getting something above the mid-level exception.

As for Washington, everything depends on Jerry Stackhouse. He has until the end of the season to tell the Wizards whether he's opting out. But he's not going to opt out of his contract unless the Wizards promise to give him a bigger deal. Stack wants to stay in Washington, and he knows there isn't much money out there for him anywhere else. So, you can basically assume that Stackhouse will at least make his $6.5 million next season. That leaves the Wizards with around $5 million in cap room (after you figure in their No. 1 pick and a few minimum cap holds). That's not going to be enough to give them any advantage in the free-agent market.

In other words, unless Michael Jordan gets creative this summer with some trades, the Wizards are looking at pretty much the same team next season, minus MJ. That's not a happy thought.

Q: Chad, we have heard a lot about the Jason Kidd-to-San Antonio scenario. Everyone has focused on the Spurs side of this scenario. But what about the Nets? If Kidd signs with San Antonio, does New Jersey have a Plan B?

-- George Caballero, New York

Jason Kidd

Point Guard

New Jersey Nets

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

62 19.2 6.1 8.5 .417 .839

FORD: Not at this point. I talked with someone inside the Nets late last week and he said they're still confident, at the end of the day, that Kidd will re-sign in New Jersey. Here's a couple of points to consider.

As much as Kidd would love playing with a dominant big man like Tim Duncan, the Spurs' offense isn't point-guard friendly. Tony Parker has complained all year. The offense consists of getting into the halfcourt, dumping it down to Duncan and then waiting to see what happens. Kidd's strength is in the open court, running the break and using a motion-type offense in half-court sets. The Spurs' offense would really stifle his creativity. He knows it and is concerned about it.

If he doesn't go to San Antonio, his options are very limited. He has no serious interest in Denver or Utah. He'd love to play for the Clippers in the scenario I described last week, but that's not going to happen in all likelihood. He also wouldn't mind returning home to Golden State, but could only do so with a sign-and-trade. I doubt the Nets would play ball in that scenario. That leaves New Jersey. The Nets want him, are willing to pay the max, have surrounded him with some young, athletic players and seem determined to do more to make this team a championship contender. I think ultimately it will be Kidd's best choice.

If Kidd were to leave, the Nets wouldn't have many options. They would still be over the cap and stuck with just their mid-level exception. Several good point guards, including Andre Miler and Gary Payton, also will be free agents. But the Nets couldn't afford them. They'd probably be stuck looking at young point guards like Speedy Claxton and Antonio Daniels or an older veteran like Kenny Anderson.

Tyson Chandler

Forward-Center

Chicago Bulls

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

65 9.4 6.6 1.0 .543 .605

Q: I've been blown away by how well the Bulls' front line of Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry have been playing lately. I know the Bulls won't make the playoffs this season, but what should Jerry Krause do this summer to make sure this is the last season they're in the lottery. I've got to believe they're finally getting close to putting a respectable team on the floor.

-- Michael Hutch, Springfield, Mo.

FORD: When you see how well they played the Lakers on Tuesday, it's easy to catch Jerry Krause's vision. Two young athletic 7-footers in the post. One of them a low-post bruiser with a polished offensive game. The other a super athletic, rebounding machine. Together, when they're on, they're awesome. The problem is they follow up great games with terrible ones like the horrendous loss to the Grizzlies on Wednesday night.

The Bulls are looking at a mid-lottery pick this summer. I think Chandler, Curry and Jay Williams are enough young studs to build around. What they need now is one more solid veteran to give them some stability. I'd package that No. 1 pick, Jamal Crawford and Marcus Fizer and try to convince a team looking to rebuild to give up a veteran. Among the guys Krause should take a look at? Juwan Howard, Eddie Jones, Brent Barry, Jerry Stackhouse and Shane Battier.

Q: The Pistons seem to me like a team that is one star away from seriously competing for a championship. This player undoubtedly needs to fit into their team-first attitude, but the right guy could really elevate them. Do you see any chance of them getting a Duncan-type player this summer?

-- Bill Deitch, Detroit

Richard Hamilton

Guard-Forward

Detroit Pistons

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

63 20.3 3.6 2.6 .455 .832

FORD: No chance. Re-signing Cliff Robinson on Tuesday took too much of their cap space away this summer. They also intend on re-signing Richard Hamilton. That will take away the rest. What the Pistons will be left with is a mid-level exception (they'd like to get their hands on Juwan Howard) and two first-round draft picks (possibly three, if Milwaukee starts winning more games).

One pick, from the Grizzlies, will be in the lottery. However, the Grizzlies are playing so well as of late, it now looks unlikely that it will be a top-three pick. If the Pistons were to get pick No. 2 or 3, they'd finally be able to add a franchise-type player like Darko Milicic or Carmelo Anthony. More likely, the Pistons will end up with the seventh or eighth pick in the draft. Given the weak nature of this draft and the fact the Pistons are a veteran playoff team with a lot of depth, it's doubtful someone is going to come out of the draft at that position and help them right away.

Instead, the Pistons will probably have to continue to develop their young players from within. The good news is that they have several young prospects, including Tayshaun Prince (who they believe eventually will be their starting small forward) and big man Mehmet Okur (who had a huge 22-point night against the Lakers on Wednesday).

I know people look at the Pistons and wonder where their star is. But when you look at their roster with Hamilton, Robinson, Ben Wallace, Chauncey Billups and Corliss Williamson, they have plenty of talent. Having a superstar is nice. But the Pistons (the No. 1 seed in the East at the moment) are proving you don't need one.

Q: Your reluctance to discuss the Celtics is appalling. They are not a great team, but they are a good team that has as good a chance as any to win the East if they get hot in the playoffs. They are nine games over .500 and a half-game out of home-court advantage in the first round. Please, at least acknowledge their existence.

-- Chris O'Byrne, Boston

J.R. Bremer

Point Guard

Boston Celtics

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

46 7.9 2.0 2.5 .379 .778

FORD: What is there to say about them right now? The Vin Baker thing has been a fiasco (nothing new there). I think they made a major mistake trading Kenny Anderson away for him (again nothing new). J.R. Bremer has been a nice revelation at the point (though he's not really a point guard). Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker continue to do all of the heavy lifting.

Here's why I'm not sold on the Celtics: They have no real frontcourt presence. The have zero depth. Tony Delk and Walter McCarty are their only real options off the bench. The one young player they're developing, Kedrick Brown, has been a major disappointment. When they hit their 3s (like they did last night against the Hornets) they can beat anybody. When they don't, they'll lose by 20. This team probably will be in the playoffs and will make anyone nervous as long as Pierce and Walker are on the floor. But I think they missed their window of opportunity last season.

Allan Houston

Shooting Guard

New York Knicks

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

64 22.1 2.8 2.8 .431 .915

Q: Why the continued cheap-shots at Allan Houston? As a Knick fan, I have my frustrations with him, but I think he's played terrific this year, especially over the last couple of months. Did he deserve a max contract? Probably not. Sure, I wish the Knicks would have realized there was no competition for him and given him less. But the most overpaid player in NBA history? Come on, now! How about Bryant Reeves, Vin Baker, Shawn Kemp, Grant Hill, Penny Hardaway, Tom Gugliotta, etc.? I can't remember any of those guys having as good a season, after getting the huge dough, as Allan is this year.

-- Sam Nandi, Chicago

FORD: Houston's had a great year. But remember, he's only in the second year of his contract. How's that $20 million a year going to look when he's 36? I agree that Reeves, Baker, Kemp, Hardaway, Hill and Gugliotta all have terrible contracts. However, with the exception of Baker and Reeves, most people thought they were reasonable when they signed them. Injuries or substance abuse problems were behind each of their downfalls, with the exception of Howard.

The problem I have with the Knicks is that they gave Houston almost double what they had to. He deserved a $50 million contract, not $100 million. No one in the NBA could've come close to offering him more. By bidding against themselves, they killed Houston's trade value and their cap flexibility for the next six years in one fell swoop. To me, that makes it one of the worst contracts ever.

Is Kwame to blame for Wizards' woes?

Michael Jordan may have rallied the troops for a night when he blasted his team for its lack of heart after a disappointing loss to the Knicks on Sunday. Veteran players like Jerry Stackhouse and Bryon Russell responded to the call and put up big games in the Wizards' huge win over the Magic on Tuesday.

But Jordan's remarks had a different effect on the franchise's future, Kwame Brown.

Kwame Brown

Forward-Center

Washington Wizards

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

62 7.3 5.3 0.8 .457 .697

Brown said Wednesday that he feels like his coach, Doug Collins, has lost confidence in him and that he's the scapegoat for the Wizards' struggles to make the playoffs.

"I know I could help us get to the playoffs," Brown, who played only eight minutes on Tuesday, told the Washington Post. "I just think that I'm getting limited opportunities to do a lot of things that I'm able to do. I guess the coach has lost confidence in me. Nobody can do anything in eight or nine minutes a night. If I don't come in and do something immediately, I'm coming out. I feel like I'm to blame for everything."

Brown said he didn't blame Collins for benching him. He feels Collins is just taking orders from MJ.

"Everybody knows he's [Collins] in a tough position," Brown said. "I couldn't be Doug Collins. That's why I don't fault him. It's not fair for me to argue or contest what he does when I know he's in a tough spot. ... If this is not micromanaging, I need to look up the [word] again. MJ told me he was tough on players like Scottie Pippen and Horace Grant. I don't understand the logic if it's not working. He admitted he micromanaged me, so why still do it?"

Brown said this year's snub will spur him to work hard in the summer.

"I'm going to bust my butt this summer to get stronger, faster and improve my game," Brown said. "I plan on getting out of the gate strong again."

But questions remain about whether he'll be doing it in a Wizards uniform. Brown's name surfaced in trade talks before the February deadline, and some GMs around the league believe that the Wizards will try to move him this summer.

"I think Kwame was one of the guys Michael was referring to when he said some players don't bring it every night," an Eastern Conference GM told Insider. "He doesn't have the same drive and passion for the game that Michael does. I think that bothers Jordan. He doesn't value him as much as we do around the league. I know lots of team will be calling this summer trying to steal him away. Had he been on a bad team the last few years, I think he'd be much further along."

Wizards' Brown Feels Blamed

Steve Wyche / Washington Post

Malone will play the free-agent market

Karl Malone has been hinting for months that he's not ready to retire. The Mailman's 40 point performance versus the Magic on Wednesday should punctuate the point that even at the age of 40, he's still one of the top power forwards in the league.

But do the Jazz really want him around next year? Malone's keeps suggesting that the Jazz may not want him back if he decides to return for another season.

Karl Malone

Power Forward

Utah Jazz

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

63 21.0 8.0 4.4 .463 .779

Wednesday, Malone said he plans to explore his free-agent options this summer. Could the Jazz and the Mailman be headed for a break-up?

"This morning I was talking to my wife on the phone, and I told her we really need to talk about all of this," Malone told Florida Today. "We've had some discussions about it already, but I told her when I get home we need to have some major discussions about it. There are so many options and it's going to really be a big offseason for me."

Malone suggested that he's still bitter that the Jazz didn't offer him a contract extension last summer.

"Their decision last July was to not offer an extension. So now we roll around and I'm the one who has to make the decision," Malone said. "On one side of it, you don't have that security, but investment-wise I'm pleased with where I am financially so it doesn't scare me. Free agency, really, is uncharted territory that I've never been in, but it's exciting to me also. It's exciting because I've played and done the things I've needed to do, and now this summer I'll sit back and just see what happens."

Read everything Malone says with a grain of salt. He typically negotiates his new contracts through the media. Jazz owner Larry Miller already has said he wants Malone to retire in a Jazz uniform. The question between the two will largely be about money.

With John Stockton and Malone off the books this summer, the team is looking at around $16 million in cap room. The Jazz would like to sign at least one top-tier free agent (they have their eyes on Andre Miller) this summer to continue the rebuilding process. If Malone's demands spiral out of control, the team could be in a tough position. While no one wants to see Malone leave, the team has to think about the future. Most players of Miller's caliber have shown a reluctance to play in Utah. Miller has indicated privately that the Jazz are his first choice. Can the Jazz sacrifice the future to keep Malone around another season or two?

Malone weighs options

John Denton / Florida Today

Peep Show

Pacers: Ron Artest has racked up so many flagrant fouls this season that he risks a two game suspension every time he commits one for the rest of the season. Artest's flagrant on Eric Snow last night (it was pretty borderline) threatens to put the Pacers (losers of 12 of their last 13) in an even greater funk. Still, Artest said he doesn't feel like the refs are singling him out. "The refs always treat me with respect, and they like the way I play," Artest told the Indianapolis Star. "I don't think I'm a marked man. I hope not." Coach Isiah Thomas disagrees. "We've lost because of perceived flagrants and perceived technicals," Thomas said. "Guys are going to the foul line, and instead of us being up two we're down two. It's a difficult situation. ... Somehow this reputation has stuck with us. ... The refs are definitely officiating games differently, and it's costing us."

Stromile Swift

Forward-Center

Memphis Grizzlies

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

52 9.3 5.5 0.7 .485 .726

Grizzlies: Wednesday's victory over the Bulls tied a team record for the most wins in a single season (23). Stromile Swift, one of the few holdovers from the dark days in Vancouver, said coach Hubie Brown should take all the credit. "This team is more together (than in the past)," Swift, who put together his fifth straight double-double with 22 points and 10 rebounds, told the Memphis Commercial Appeal. "We feel like now we can go out and win every game. It's the coaches bringing us together and making us believe. Everybody's not trying to be for themselves. It's all about team. ... It feels good to start winning."

T-Wolves: Owner Glen Taylor told the Minneapolis Star Tribune the team would do whatever it takes to re-sign blossoming center Rasho Nesterovic, an unrestricted free agent, this summer. "We need a center, and we will find a way to re-sign Rasho." Nesterovic had turned down a offer of $28 million for seven years last summer. This season Nesterovic is averaging career highs in scoring, rebounding, blocked shots and field goal percentage. And he keeps getting better. In March he's putting up 13.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg. Expect him to command a lot closer to $50 million over seven years this summer.

Sonics: A few days after asking Brent Barry to be more aggressive, coach Nate McMillan is now calling on Rashard Lewis to step up his intensity. "He has to also work to come to the ball and not bury himself on the weak side," McMillan told the Seattle Times. "Come to the top of the offense as opposed to every time the shot goes up, you drift to a side opposite the ball. Either run to that block, or run to the side of the ball, and get yourself in a position where you can feel it and touch it. At this time of the year, teams know exactly what you're going to run. They even know the calls. So a lot of times they beat you to the spot. And if they take that away from you ... it's best to play before that defense gets set."

Artest faces 2 more games off after another flagrant

Mark Montieth / Indianapolis Star

Road woes continue for Pacers

Mark Montieth / Indianapolis Star

Griz reach for new heights

Ronald Tillery / Memphis Commercial Appeal

Nesterovic blossoms into fine center

Sid Hartman / Minneapolis Star-Tribune

Sonics want Lewis to get aggressive

Percy Allen / Seattle Times