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Judging the 2002 rookie class

by Chad Ford

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Also Below: Should Big Ben be the MVP? | Are teams saving up for Garnett already? | Peep Show

Everyone knew the rookie class of 2002 had the potential to be one of the best in the last decade. The top two picks, Yao Ming and Jay Williams, were both tabbed as franchise players. Several others, including Mike Dunleavy, Drew Gooden, Caron Butler and Dajuan Wagner, were seen as sure things.

And while Yao and Butler have certainly panned out, most of the talent this year has come from unusual sources. International players like Nene Hilario, Gordan Giricek and Emanuel Ginobili have had a bigger-than-expected impact. And high school stud Amare Stoudemire is changing the way we think about high school kids entering the draft.

It's way too early to start labeling, but the class is shaping up to challenge the classes of 1994, 1996, 1998 and 2001 as the best of the past decade. Insider breaks down the impact these diaper dandies have had in year one

All-Stars in the Making

Yao Ming

Center

Houston Rockets

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

70 13.8 8.4 1.6 .517 .800

Yao Ming, Rockets

Drafted No. 1

The big fella from China has exceeded just about everyone's expectations. That's a spectacular feat considering the hype that surrounded Yao when he came into the draft. He's already arguably the second-best true center in the NBA behind Shaq. He's backed down from no one. Has handled the swirling media storm with grace and eloquence. And, along with Steve Francis, he's on the verge of leading the Rockets to their first playoff berth in four years.

Amare Stoudemire, Suns

Drafted No. 9

Stoudemire is challenging Kevin Garnett for the best rookie season ever for a high school kid. His ferocity in the paint combined with his athleticism should make him an All-Star in a couple of years. By the time he's 25, most NBA scouts are projecting he'll be a superstar. Several claim he has the talent to redefine the power forward position in the pros. That's impressive. He also has the Suns on the verge of a shocking playoff berth.

Rock Solid

Caron Butler, Heat

Drafted No. 10

He may drive Pat Riley crazy, but Butler's rookie season has been a major success. He's turned into a fine all-around scorer. He's a solid rebounder at his position. And Riley has already shown Butler how to play good defense. He currently ranks 16th in the NBA in steals. His 18.8 ppg average in the month of March is a sign of better things to come next season.

Drew Gooden

Forward

Orlando Magic

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

64 12.6 6.6 1.2 .455 .704

Drew Gooden, Magic

Drafted No. 4

After being buried on the bench in Memphis, Gooden was liberated by the Magic and has been on fire ever since. His 14.8 ppg and 9.6 rpg on 50 percent shooting are on par with Yao and Stoudemire. Give coach Doc Rivers one summer to weave him into the team's offensive schemes, and I think we're looking at a 20-and-10 guy for the next 10 to 12 years.

Gordan Giricek, Magic

Drafted No. 40 (1999 draft)

It's hard to call this 25-year-old sharp shooter from Croatia a "rookie." Giricek has more than compensated for the loss of Mike Miller in Orlando. Since being traded in February, he's averaging 16.1 ppg, 5 rpg and shooting 47 percent from the field. His athleticism and complete game have taken many in the league by surprise. With Giricek, Tracy McGrady and Gooden next season, the Magic will have three players capable of averaging 20 points a night.

Nene Hilario, Nuggets

Drafted No. 7

The Brazilian bombshell keeps getting better and better each month. Originally thought to be a major project, Hilario has been the second-best player on the Nuggets this season behind Juwan Howard. His maturity, toughness in the paint, and strong set of fundamentals have him on a learning curve that's off the charts. Once he improves his rebounding and shot blocking, he'll be a real beast in the paint.

Carlos Boozer, Cavs

Drafted No. 35

He didn't fit the draft profile of anyone in the first round, but Boozer has done a solid job proving his critics wrong. While no one is going to confuse his 13.1 ppg and 7.6 rpg averages in March as All-Star numbers, he looks like he's capable of having a Tyrone Hill or P.J. Brown-type NBA career. If the draft were done over today, he'd be a mid first-rounder.

Starting to heat up

Emanuel Ginobili

Shooting Guard

San Antonio Spurs

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

56 7.2 2.2 2.0 .437 .716

Emanuel Ginobili, Spurs

Drafted No. 57 (1999 draft)

A nagging ankle injury limited his effectiveness in the first half of the season, but in the last month or so, Ginobili's play has been a big reason why the Spurs are challenging the Mavs for the best record in the NBA. In March, Ginobili is averaging 12.1 ppg, 3.4 apg and 3 rpg on 51 percent shooting from the field. He also gets an amazing 2.4 steals per game. His quickness and his unorthodox game have given the Spurs a dimension they haven't had since Derek Anderson left. Don't be shocked if Ginobili helps Tim Duncan and Tony Parker give the Admiral a nice championship ring for a retirement present.

Mike Dunleavy, Warriors

Drafted No. 3

Dunleavy had bust written all over him during the first half of the season. But slowly, he's played himself into the Warriors' rotation and is now giving them meaningful minutes. In two recent starts, Dunleavy averaged 11 ppg, 4 rpg and shot over 50 percent from the field. A solid strength program this summer should get him in shape to make a much more meaningful impact next season. But will he get any minutes stuck behind Antawn Jamison and Jason Richardson?

Mehmet Okur, Pistons

Drafted No. 38

Okur actually begins his rookie season this year, but after playing professionally in Turkey the past few years, he doesn't act like a rookie. With Zeljko Rebraca out with an irregular heart beat, Okur has been stellar. He's averaged 13.8 ppg and 8.3 rpg in the three games he's started. A 22-point, eight-rebound effort against the Lakers a couple of weeks ago captured what he can do when given the minutes. Okur looks like he has star written all over him.

Rasual Butler, Heat

Drafted No. 53

This Butler hasn't been as impressive as Caron, but he still has made a major impression on the Heat. Playing two guard with Eddie Jones out nursing an injury, he's averaged 11.9 ppg and 4.1 rpg as a starter.

Headed in the right direction

Jay Williams

Point Guard

Chicago Bulls

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

64 9.3 2.6 4.7 .381 .625

Jay Williams, Bulls

Drafted No. 2

Williams has been a huge disappointment. Many felt he had the ability to come into the league and make an immediate impact. Instead, it's hard to find a rookie who's had a rockier go of it this year. Still, Williams has persevered. He took a recent benching in stride and is slowly starting to put the pieces back together. Once the Bulls figure out what to do with Jamal Crawford this summer (either trade him or move him to the two guard), Williams should be back on the fast track.

Dajuan Wagner, Cavs

Drafted No. 6

Got off to a hot start, but really cooled once the Cavs moved him to the point. Someone is going to have to come to the realization in Cleveland that the kid isn't a point guard. The Cavs need to draft or trade for a big point guard this summer and free up Wagner to do his thing. When he can just focus on scoring, Wagner has the potential to put up Allen Iverson-like numbers.

Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Nuggets

Drafted No. 5

His stats don't really show it, but Skita has shown a marked improvement over the last month. He's still too thin to gain much of an advantage in the post, and he still settles for too many perimeter shots, but his game is slowly evolving. Some offseason strength training and a session at the Pete Newell big man camp will really help him. He's still two or three years away, but the Nuggets still believe he'll be a star.

Melvin Ely, Clippers

Drafted No. 12

Ely has gotten more time than fellow rookie Chris Wilcox, but his production has still be inconsistent. He's had a couple of 13-point, nine-rebound performances in March.

Juan Dixon, Wizards

Drafted No. 17

Dixon has had several big games for the Wizards this year, but his production is still spotty. While he's clearly shown that he can score in the league, questions about his ability to run the point are still prevalent. In another year or two, he could become a Bobby Jackson-type spark plug off the bench.

Marko Jaric, Clippers

Drafted No. 30 (1999)

Jaric's played well when he's gotten minutes, but right now he's still buried behind Andre Miller on the depth chart. Expect that to change. The Clippers are expected to let Miller walk away this summer, leaving the starting point guard job to Jaric. With his tenacity on the offensive and defensive end, expect him to put up much more impressive numbers next season.

J.R. Bremer, Celtics

Undrafted

He's the starting point guard on a playoff team and averaging 11.3 ppg and 3.7 apg. Considering he was passed by 58 times on draft night, that's not too shabby.

Stuck in Neutral

Chris Wilcox, Clippers

Drafted No. 8

No playing time in L.A. is a bit of mystery. He skipped the summer league last year. Don't expect him to make the same mistake twice this summer.

Jared Jeffries, Wizards

Drafted No. 11

Jeffries had a promising start, but a season-ending injury means we'll have to wait until next year to have this conversation.

Marcus Haislip, Bucks

Drafted No. 13

The Bucks love him, but don't have anywhere to play him behind Toni Kukoc, Tim Thomas, Desmond Mason and Anthony Mason.

Jiri Welsch, Warriors

Drafted No. 16

Welsch is also stuck in a serious traffic jam. Gilbert Arenas, Bob Sura, Jason Richardson and Mike Dunleavy steal all of his minutes. Still, the team swears that, in practice, Welsh is one of its best players. If Arenas leaves this summer, will something open up?

Kareem Rush, Lakers

Drafted No. 20

He's seen sporadic minutes for the Lakers this season. When he's played, he's played well. But coach Phil Jackson won't trust a rookie down the stretch. Seems poised to have an impact next season.

Qyntel Woods, Blazers

Drafted No. 21

He never should have slipped this far in the draft. The Blazers love him. His talent is extraordinary and he's been on his best behavior in Portland. Given Woods' past and the Blazers' locker room, that's saying something.

Casey Jacobsen, Suns

Drafted No. 22

Jacobsen got some good looks when Penny Hardaway went out with a wrist injury. Now that Penny's back and Joe Johnson's playing well, Jacobsen is forced to wave towels.

Tayshaun Prince, Pistons

Drafted No. 23

The Pistons believe he's their small forward of the future. Right now he's buried behind Michael Curry and Corliss Williamson on the depth chart. That should change next summer.

Chris Jefferies, Raptors

Drafted No. 27

Starting to get minutes now that the Raptors are definitely in the lottery. Hasn't shown much yet.

Dan Dickau, Hawks

Drafted No. 29

He's played well at times, awful at other times. The Hawks still aren't sure whether Dickau's their guy. A lot will depend on what happens with Jason Terry this summer. If he goes and the Hawks bring in a bigger, more athletic two guard, Dickau's numbers could increase.

One Foot out the Door

Fred Jones, Pacers

Drafted No. 14

Donnie Walsh is going to kill me. He's going to say that Jones is buried behind Reggie Miller, Ron Mercer, Ron Artest and Jonathan Bender. But if I recall correctly, the Pacers said that when they drafted Jones, they thought he had the ability to make an impact at point guard. Given Jamaal Tinsley's well-documented struggles, where is he?

Bostjan Nachbar, Rockets

Drafted No. 15

The Rockets' trade for James Posey sealed Nachbar's fate. One source in Houston claims that coach Rudy Tomajanovich has not been impressed at all with Nachbar. Second-rounders and undrafted players like Terrance Morris and Juaquin Hawkins play over him. Only one player on the Rockets' roster, Tito Maddox, plays less than Nachbar.

Ryan Humphries, Grizzlies

Drafted No. 18

He's athleticism was supposed to make up for his lack of height in the post. It hasn't.

Curtis Borchardt, Jazz

Drafted No. 19

Serious foot injuries have some wondering whether Borchardt will recover.

Frank Williams, Knicks

Drafted No. 25

If you can't beat out Charlie Ward or Howard Eisley . . . Expect Knicks second-round pick, Milos Vujanic, to come in and kick Williams out the door.

John Salmons, Sixers

Drafted No. 26

His maturity, college experience and versatility were supposed to make him a solid contributor right now. Instead, he looks an awful lot like Jeryl Sasser.

Should Big Ben be the MVP?

Ben Wallace

Forward-Center

Detroit Pistons

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

66 6.7 15.3 1.6 .488 .433

In an ongoing effort to give the Pistons, currently the best team in the East, a modicum of respect . . . isn't it time to start mentioning Ben Wallace and MVP in the same sentence?

No team in the NBA continues to overachieve the way the Pistons do. Coach Rick Carlilse and GM Joe Dumars seem to understand how to get the best out of talented, but not superstar players.

Richard Hamilton, Chauncey Billups and Wallace are leading this team to a likely top seed in the East. Shouldn't someone on the Pistons be getting consideration for MVP?

"The standards of an MVP has always been, primarily, based on offensive numbers -- in whatever sport," Dumars told the Detroit News. "That's why it's so hard to have defensive players in football get MVP."

Wallace is averaging only 6.7 ppg this season. In a game where the team with most points wins, how can a guy who chips in less than 10 percent of his team's overall scoring output be seriously considered for the MVP?

Well, Wallace has an arguement.

"Just because you come out and score 100 points, that alone is not going to get you the MVP if you can't help your team to win," said Wallace. "You have to look at what you bring to your team and what degree you're helping your team and what degree you're working at."

Kevin Garnett

Small Forward

Minnesota Timberwolves

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

71 23.1 13.4 5.9 .496 .745

Wallace's numbers in just about every other category shine. He leads the NBA in rebounding (15.3 rpg), offensive rebounding (4.1 per game) and blocked shots (3.1 bpg). He routinely shuts down the opposing team's biggest and strongest player.

"For what he does for us, he's definitely an MVP," Carlilse told the Detroit Free Press.

The problem, of course, is that a lot of the other top MVP candidates rebound, block shots, play defense AND score.

Tim Duncan

Forward-Center

San Antonio Spurs

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

69 23.3 13.0 3.9 .502 .706

Kevin Garnett averages 13.4 rpg (2nd in the league) and ranks 16th in the league in blocks. However, he also averages 23.3 ppg and dishes out 5.9 assists.

Tim Duncan grabs 13 rpg (third in the league), blocks 2.9 shots per game (third in the league) and scores 23.3 ppg and hands out 3.9 apg.

Both the Timberwolves and Spurs have more wins than the Pistons, and Garnett and Duncan play without big supporting casts.

Still, at least one of Wallace's opponents thinks Big Ben should win the award hands down.

"Personally, you take him away from the Pistons, and I'm pretty sure they are not the first team in the East," Jalen Rose said. "But I also understand that a lot of that stuff goes with hype and glamour. Unfortunately, the candidates are not chosen necessarily based on production. If you went by what he does for a team and what he does for this league from a rebounding standpoint, from having a good attitude as far as playing hard, stealing the ball, being a consummate teammate, then he wins hands down. But it's more of a glamour contest, and he doesn't fit that mode."

Wallace will be MVP material in NBA when his scoring picks up

Rob Parker / Detroit News

Glamorous no, but Wallace is valuable

Perry Farrell / Detroit Free Press

Are teams saving up for Garnett already?

Kevin Garnett is the cornerstone of the Minnesota Timberwolves. He's also the foundation, floor, walls and roof. However, when he's able to opt out of his contract in the summer of 2004, will the walls come crumbling down?

Kevin Garnett

Small Forward

Minnesota Timberwolves

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

71 23.1 13.4 5.9 .496 .745

The T-Wolves are already starting to wonder. They see several teams circling the Target Center like vultures. Garnett is pushing the team to add more talent to the roster this summer. It doesn't look like the Wolves have enough salary flexibility to do it.

"You need a core to go forward," Garnett said recently. "I've lost everybody from Steph [Marbury], to Googs [Tom Gugliotta], to Malik [sealy, who was killed in an auto accident in May 2000] to Terrell Brandon [who is out because of a career-threatening injury]. . . . Am I loyal to the point where I don't get a ring and I'm miserable and I'm going out in the first round every year?"

Seven T-Wolves are in the last year of their contracts and two more only have team options for the remainder of their deals. That means the Wolves have nine potential holes to fill this summer. Can they use all of the money they should be saving this summer to add another superstar to the mix?

The answer, unfortunately, is no. Despite having only six guaranteed contracts on the books next season, the Wolves will still be $18.5 million over the cap.

Garnett's $28 million salary next season takes a large chunk of it. So does Terrell Brandon's $11.1 million contract. Szczerbiak is set to make $8 million next season, Joe Smith will make $5.4, Marc Jackson will get $3.9 and Troy Hudson will collect $2.1 million.

That means that the Wolves will have their mid-level exception, a rare first-round draft pick and four more slots to fill from the remaining guys on their roster. One of those figures to be Rasho Nesterovic, who's played himself into a nice free-agent deal. The other three remaining roster slots will probably be open.

In other words, the Wolves don't have much room to add the players Garnett is dreaming of. Last year the Wolves made concerted efforts to land Ricky Davis, Devean George and Rodney Rogers in the free-agent market. They struck out every time.

This year, they'll be plenty of free agents available, but will any of them want to play in Minnesota for the mid-level?

Rumors have been running rampant that Gary Payton could end up in Minnesota if things don't go well in Milwaukee. While Payton would be a great fit, don't count on him taking that big of a pay cut to play in the North.

Juwan Howard has also been mentioned as another possibility. However, people close to Howard have indicated that he'd only accept a mid-level deal as a last resort.

After Payton and Howard, the mid-level free-agent picking might be slim.

Tyrone Hill, Robert Horry, P.J. Brown, Elden Campbell, Darrell Armstrong, Kenny Anderson, Scottie Pippen and Stephen Jackson figure to be the best available players in that range.

While all of them could add solid play and veteran leadership, none of them would put the T-Wolves over the top. That's led to the increased speculation that teams may hold back spending their free-agent money this summer to go after Garnett next year?

There's already talk in San Antonio that if the Spurs can't get Jason Kidd or Jermaine O'Neal to come this summer, they'll save their money and make a run at Garnett in 2004. The Pistons (you know Joe Dumars is up to something), Grizzlies (ditto for Jerry West), Hornets, and of course the Clippers, are also looking at potential serious cap room in 2004.

Most Wolves on last year of contract

Steve Aschburner / Minneapolis Star Tribune

Wolves owner confident Garnett will stay

Sid Hartman / Minneapolis Star-Tribune

2004 coming-out party would be spectacular

Peter May / Boston Globe

Peep Show

Los Angeles Lakers: Phil Jackson, of all people, thinks his players are too smug. "These guys think they're the favorites to win (the NBA title), and I don't know why they think that," Jackson told O.C. Register. "I don't know why they think that. They don't look at standings. I'm still trying to tell them we're certainly not out of the woods. We still have Houston and Phoenix playing well enough to make a little run at the end of the season. if we're not attentive to what we do, we could be putting ourselves in jeopardy."

New Jersey Nets: The team will get Dikembe Mutombo back on Saturday. Can he make a difference down the stretch for the Nets? Mutombo is trying to lower expectations. "That is only putting more pressure on me than I have already. There is pressure just for me to go back and play basketball again because I missed [so much]. But I don't want everything to be put on me," Mutombo told the N.Y. Post.

Golden State Warriors: The ongoing Gilbert Arenas saga continues to drag on in the Bay. Will he or won't he stay? Arenas said that the Warriors are his first option, but right now he's reveling in all of the attention. "I'm just grateful that it's happening," he told the San Jose Mecury News. "It sure didn't happen when I first came out, so now that I am getting the attention, I'm just trying to absorb it all because I know that one day it's going to stop." Rumors have him going to Denver this summer. The most the Warriors can offer him is the $4.5 million exception. Denver could potentially offer him much more, but there might be one hitch. "I can tell you this: Gil doesn't like cold weather," Arenas' father said. "He loves being in California.''

Chicago Bulls: It took 64 games, but coach Bill Cartwright finally put Jamal Crawford and Jay Williams in the same backcourt for about 11 minutes on Sunday. The surprise for some (though Insider reported this last week) was that Crawford assumed the majority of the ball-handling responsibilities "It made us versatile," Williams told the Chicago Tribune. "What I did in college with Chris Duhon, you just read off who's playing who. When [Detroit's] Hubert Davis came into the game, I wanted to be the point guard because it allowed me to do more things off pick-and-roll. But whoever got the ball just went. Jamal and I really communicated." Will Williams eventually be the Bulls' two guard on a more permanent basis? "Why even talk about that?" Cartwright groaned. "We want them to play one position well first."

Orlando Magic, Memphis Grizzlies: Mike Miller said he's no longer bitter about being traded to the Grizzlies. "I agree 100 percent they had to do something. That's another reason why it's hard to blame anybody," Miller told the Florida Today. "They had to make a move. I think a lot of people were getting impatient and we weren't going anywhere. We were going to the first round of the playoffs and getting knocked off. We were a playoff team, but after a while people get impatient with just being a playoff team. It's funny to say that, but they had to make a move."

Smug Lakers concern Jackson

Kevin Ding / Orange County Register

Nets Hoping Deke Is Cure For Collapses

Fred Kerber / New York Post

What is Arenas' next move?

Mark Emmons / San Jose Mercury News

Williams, Crawford making a point

K.C. Johnson / Chicago Tribune

Miller understands trade

John Denton / Florida Today