Insider Special: Draft Bracing for HS invasion

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NBA bracing for another high school invasion

by Chad Ford

Wednesday, March 26 Updated 10:18 AM EST

After seeing Kwame Brown flounder, Tyson Chandler stumble, Eddy Curry look lost and DeSagana Diop languish on the bench, NBA teams seemed to be finally getting their fill of drafting high school seniors.

Amare Stoudemire

Power Forward

Phoenix Suns

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

70 13.4 9.1 0.9 .467 .660

Only one high school player, Amare Stoudemire, made the cut in 2003. Several GMs said the days of drafting herds of 18 year olds fresh off their high school proms was over. Sure, every year there would be a rare phenom like Stoudemire. But generally, the flood gates were closed again. Only the most elite could find a way past them.

Scratch all that.

Stoudemire's dominant rookie season, combined with the improved play of Chandler and Curry and the coming of the most hyped high school prospect ever, LeBron James, has blown open the blast doors again.

Super LeBron is playing Moses. He's parting the sea of NBA scouts and naysayers. Several lesser prospects, including Kendrick Perkins, James Lang, Travis Outlaw and Charlie Villanueva are trying to sneak in on his coat tails.

The McDonald's All-American game goes down tonight in LeBron's backyard (ESPN, 7 p.m. ET) and, as usual, the crowd will be infested by NBA types hoping to rob the cradle. While everyone seems to agree in theory that players are better off with a few years of college under their belts, no one, in practice, is willing to card these kids at the door.

Even the players themselves think too many high school kids are heading straight to the pros.

"Guys hurt themselves by going in too early, but it's everyone's own decision," Stoudemire told Insider at this year's All-Star Game. Isn't that a little hypocritical considering that Stoudemire was about six months removed from doing just that?

"I was in a totally different situation," Stoudemire replied. "I knew that my work ethic would get me throught the rough spots. I just won't be denied. The league is hard work man. But I'm all about hard work."

It shows. Stoudemire's rookie season has drawn comparisons to Kevin Garnett's. But lest we get caught up in the hype, don't forget that Stoudemire is the exception, not the rule.

"He was one of the few kids that was physically ready to play in the NBA when he was drafted," one Eastern Conference GM said. "He was a little older (20 by the start of the season), had a superior work ethic and just played with a confidence that few rookies, high school or pro, posses. Guys like that don't come along very often."

Tyson Chandler

Forward-Center

Chicago Bulls

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

70 9.5 6.8 1.0 .542 .607

What awaits the rest of the high school phenoms not named LeBron? Just ask the Bulls' Chandler.

Chandler knows a thing or two about being a high school phenom. "60 Minutes" did a story on him when he was in eighth grade. That might be about when Chandler stopped going to class. Unlike LeBron, Chandler was never a dominant basketball player. However, at 7-foot-1, his potential was through the roof. People talked him up so much, Chandler, who went No. 2 in the 2001 draft behind Brown, was sure it wouldn't take long for him to dominate in the NBA.

He was wrong.

"It's been rough, man," Chandler told Insider. From adjusting to the speed, strength and basketball savvy of NBA veterans to figuring out the triangle offense, Chandler has struggled to live up to the high expectations.

"LeBron's in for a rude awakening," Chandler said. "All that stuff that you get away with in high school, they take that away from you in the NBA. Your best stuff. Teams figure that out, and then they won't let you do your thing. I'm constantly trying to add stuff, but right now a lot of it is forced."

While Chandler says he and Curry may be the poster children for why David Stern wants an age limit, he still believes it should be an individual decision.

"What I did wasn't right for everyone," Chandler said, "but it was right for me. It's probably right for LeBron. It isn't right for everyone. "

Of course, no one has much room to talk. With only one exception, the most highly thought of straight-to-high-school players have been dominant. Garnett, Kobe Bryant and Tracy McGrady are now being mentioned as a legitimate MVP candidates. The Pacers' Jermaine O'Neal is right behind him. Rashard Lewis just cashed in last summer. And Chandler, Curry, Al Harrington and Jonathan Bender are all starting to break out.

In fact, of the high school players who've been drafted in the first round, only one, Leon Smith, has been a total bust. If you're projected as a lottery pick by just about everyone, you have to love those odds.

Of course, it doesn't hurt to wait either. Syracuse super frosh Carmelo Anthony also flirted with going pro last season. Had he done so, he would have been a late lottery or mid-first-round pick. Instead, he got valuable experience at Syracuse this season and is now projected at a top-three pick in the draft.

Still, as Anthony noted last year, it's hard to resist the NBA's siren call.

"It's real hard not to think about it and we all have different opinions. Everyone thinks about it and the money is right there. For me, I want to play in college for at least a year," Anthony said. He admits that he has been influenced by the struggles of his predecessors. "I want to play. I can't imagine having to just watch so many games. Why not wait a year or two before going to the NBA? You get to play, have fun and get better. But if people want to go, if they need money, nobody should stop them."

Nobody is.

LeBron still the one

The media has a tendency to always rate the mysterious ahead of the known. Now that most people in the free world believe that high school phenom LeBron James is a hybrid of Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan and Jason Kidd, it's time to move on to bigger and better things, right?

Suggestions in the media over the last few weeks that scenarios exist where Yugoslavian big man Darko Milicic or Syracuse freshman Carmelo Anthony leap ahead of LeBron are laughable, according to numerous team executives.

LeBron is still No. 1

"He's a once in a decade talent," one GM said. "Teams always say that you draft the best talent, you don't draft for position. It doesn't always work out that way, but in this case it will. No one in their right mind would pass on him. He's about as sure a thing as you can get in the NBA draft."

Another team executive said that talent isn't the only consideration. "How many people are going to pick up the phone and buy season tickets when the team announces that they've drafted Darko Milicic? This is a business and LeBron is very good business."

He's also an awesome basketball player. Scouts have been watching him play at the McDonald's All-Amercian practices the last few days. The practices offer scouts a rare glimpse at a side of LeBron few of them have seen. While everyone has seen him dominate in games, teams have been barred from his practices.

"His work habits are extraordinary," one scout said. "He practices as hard as he plays. He's leaving the rest of these kids, all of whom are All-Americans, in the dust. It's not even close. He was the first person on the court for practice. Unbelievable."

"You can see a lot of his skills watching the games," another scout said. "But seeing what he does here is so important. The game itself is meaningless. It's how he responds to coaching, how he fits in with teammates, how hard he plays. Those are the things we're looking for. Right now I'd say he's passed with flying colors."

Scouts say that James has absolutely abused another highly thought of prospect, Charlie Villanueva, in practice the last few days.

"He's on another level," said Kendrick Perkins, another high school star thinking of declaring for the NBA draft. "I think it's good for us, though. It takes the pressure off."

Scouts say that James should be able to make an impact immediately when he comes into the league. He's got a size advantage -- 6-foot-8, 240 pounds -- over most two guards in the league. He's a superior athlete. He has wonderful court vision and already understands how to play the game.

"If he gets on a bad team, he'll score 20 points a night," one scout said. "If he gets on a good team, he'll score 15 and hand out six or seven assists."

The only knock scouts can find on him is the lack of a consistent long-range jumper. However, scouts insist that his shooting form is just fine. Lots of practice in the gym should overcome that one small flaw.

The other thing that scouts are quickly finding out about LeBron is that he's genuinely a good kid. Despite a flurry of negative reports on LeBron over the last few months, those close to him claim that they've all been overblown.

He had good grades in high school -- a miracle when you consider all of the distractions around him. His teammates love him. He shows rare humility for someone in the spotlight. He always looks to make his teammates better when he's on the court. He never asks for star treatment from coaches or officials.

"He's a pro," one scout who has spent some time with LeBron told Insider. "He wants to be the greatest and he's willing to put forth the effort. He won't cause any problems. It's just not an issue. Trust me, we keep trying to look for the [censored] in his armour. We're still looking."

Scouts tell McDonalds All-Americans to stay in school

High school star Charlie Villanueva came to the McDonald's All-American game with one major goal in mind.

He wanted to shine in front of the gaggle of NBA scouts. Historically, a strong performance in the tournament means that you can write your own ticket to the NBA. It isn't working out that way this year.

"I'm a small forward and they have me playing center," Villanueva told the N.Y. Post. "It's frustrating. He gets all the love."

Of course, the "he" Villanueva is referring to is LeBron James. Villanueva, along with a number of other high school prospects, are being showed up by James this weekend. Some aren't happy about it.

"You can't get mad at LeBron," Villanueva said. "He's a cool guy, but other players deserve to get some shine and that hasn't really happened."

Villanueva, along with several other top high school prospects, have a lot on the line. With a 20-year-old age limit looming, they'd like to get into the league now, before it's too late. For the players here, skipping the draft this year means waiting until 2005 or 2006 to go to the NBA.

That's led to major speculation among NBA scouts that Villanueva, along with Kendrick Perkins, James Lang, Travis Outlaw, Jackie Butler and Kris Humphries, might forego college and declare for the NBA draft.

Declaring now, according to multiple NBA scouts and personnel guys, would be a major, major mistake.

"They all need to forget about the NBA right now," one NBA assistant GM told Insider. "None of them are even ready. They aren't even close. Not only are all of these guys out of LeBron's league. They're out of Kwame Brown's league too. Let's put this into perspective. Nikoloz Tskitishvili had no business being in the league either this year. He'd go off for 50 against this group. No question."

Those are harsh words for All-Americans. But to a man, scouts were unanimous in their assessments. LeBron is the only high school player in the country ready to take on the NBA.

"These kids don't have a clue what it takes to make it," another scout said. "They don't know how to play hard. They're bent over, grabbing their shorts in practice, all out of breath. Didn't they just finish their season? Villanueva can complain all he wants that he's not getting the spotlight. He doesn't deserve it. He needs to go Illinois badly. Travis Outlaw and Jackie Butler need to go to Mississippi State badly. And they need to stay at least two years. They just aren't ready."

It looks like top high school prospect Luol Deng will go to Duke

Scouts feel that the second-best player in the high school class of 2003 is Luol Deng, a 6-foot-8 swingman from New Jersey. Deng, however, has committed to Duke and scouts believe he'll honor the commitment.

"He's a smart basketball player and a great athlete," one scout said. "He has the ability to play three positions in the pros. He's an excellent ball handler and he just has a good feel for the game. He's kind of in the same boat Carmelo Anthony was in last year. If he declared he'd be a mid first rounder. But a couple of solid years at Duke and he's a lock for the high lottery."

Kendrick Perkins, a 6-foot-10, 285 pound, center from Texas is also projected as a first-rounder by some NBA scouts.

"He's got the size and strength that you like in a big man," another scout said. "But he doesn't always play hard, he has a lot of conditioning issues and he isn't a great athlete. He's a big of a ground hog. He's a classic center in that he's comfortable playing with his back to the basket, has soft hands and several low post moves. But he's undersized to play that position in the pros. I think he needs to go to Memphis and figure out how to be a more complete basketball player."

Scouts feel that the other dominant high school big man, James Lang, is more skilled. However, Lang, a 6-foot-10, 310-pound center, has even more serious conditioning issues. He dropped 70 pounds this year just to get down to 310. Scouts consider him a good athlete and love how aggressively he plays the game. He's a solid rebounder and a good shot blocker, but stamina is a major issue. He also is very foul prone.

"I think he'll have weight problems his whole career," one NBA scout said. "I think he has to prove to folks that he can get in great shape and stay in great shape. If he does that at Memphis for a couple of years, he'll be a high prospect."

Of all of the high school seniors, Mississippi native Travis Outlaw, seems like the most predisposed to test the draft waters now. Outlaw, a super athletic, 6-foot-9, 210-pound power forward, runs the floor like a guard and is an excellent shot blocker. However, he doesn't have much of a face-the-basket game. Scouts say that Outlaw would have to make the transition to small forward in the pros.

"He has some real physical gifts, but he doesn't know how to play the game," one scout said. "He reminds me a little of Darius Miles. Great athlete, no real offensive game, thin frame and no position. He really hasn't made big improvements over the last few years. I think he really needs some solid coaching. John Calipari can give that to him. In a couple of years, he could be a big time prospect if he improves."

If Outlaw does declare as expected, he'll probably end up in the late first round.

Charlie Villanueva, a teammate of Deng, is a rangy 6-foot-10, 215-pound small forward and has the full complement of skills. He has Lamar Odom-like versatility. He can score inside or from the perimeter. He's an excellent ball handler, a solid passer and an above-average athlete.

So what's the knock? Heart. Villanueva has a rep for lollygagging at times. He doesn't play with the type of intensity that scouts demand. His work ethic is somewhat questionable. He doesn't play defense or block shots. Villanueva is planning on attending Illinois next year if he doesn't declare for the draft.