How much can we pay Smoove?

[HawkNJersey]

Reading Sekou's blog today about his comparison to Marion, got me thinking.

From Sekou's Blog....

I’ve always compared Josh Smith’s ability to fill a stat sheet to that of Shawn Marion and Andrei Kirilenko but I’m not so sure that Smith isn’t the better option of the three going forward - and hear me out on this one before you start going crazy. I know he has a penchant for the maddening pass or shot attempt that causes you to jump out of your chair screaming that he needs to slow down or pass the ball. But he’s taller than Marion, thicker than Kirilenko and younger than both of those guys. He’s also a much better ballhandler (even with his turnovers) than Marion and basically on par with Kirilenko in that department. And I’m talking specifically about these guys’ individual talents and not necessarily their fit on their respective teams, because I think all three fit perfectly where they are right now. But if I had to wonder which of the three would produce the same results on a different team, I’d have to go with Smith.

What can we afford to pay Smoove, before he's outta reach?

[bumpyphish1]

I think we will pay him at the end of the season. I hope, anyways. No way we let a homegrown talent like him get away. That's what I keep telling myself, but with this ownership, who knows?

[Guest]

Are you asking for the literal figure of how much money we can offer Smoove? If thats the case, we can offer him a 6-year deal starting at 25% of the cap (to be determined) with simple raises of 10.5%. That is the max we can offer which is much greater than any other team can offer (only 5 years, starting at 25% of the cap, with 8% raises).

[DavidSomerset]

So sitting here right now, running on the limited information we have...What would you guess we end up signing Smoove for...Years and amount please

[HawkNJersey]

Quote:

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Are you asking for the literal figure of how much money we can offer Smoove? If thats the case, we can offer him a 6-year deal starting at 25% of the cap (to be determined) with simple raises of 10.5%. That is the max we can offer which is much greater than any other team can offer (only 5 years, starting at 25% of the cap, with 8% raises).

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Thank you

And I'm also asking about, how much...can we afford? Because we know what Marion is getting paid. And I'm afraid that may be a benchmark, when the season is over. Do we pay him for what he brings today or what he'll provide us in the future? Considering he's only 21...

[Guest]

Quote:

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So sitting here right now, running on the limited information we have...What would you guess we end up signing Smoove for...Years and amount please

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You mean you want me to guess at how much the Max deal is? What I personally think Smoove is worth? Or what I think Smoove will end up getting either via the Hawks or someone else?

A rough guesstimate (because I haven't actually done anything with numbers, just guessing) is that 25% of the cap will be ~$13.3 mil. That puts Smoove's Max deal (and Howard's) at:

$13.3

$14.6965

$16.093

$17.4895

$18.886

$20.2825

Total - $100.7475

I don't think he gets a Max deal at all nor do I think he deserves it. What I feel he deserves is 6 years starting at $9 mil (total $73.845 mil). What I think he will end up getting is a deal starting around $11 mil to $12 mil, if its with us it will have 10.5% raises but 8% raises with another team. If he signs in Atlanta I think it will be a 6 year deal unless they match an offer sheet.

[Johnnybravo4]

What happens with MArvin the year after? We need to sign him to an extension in the 5 year 50 mil range.

[Guest]

Quote:

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And I'm also asking about, how much...can we afford?

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In terms of the Salary Cap, we can afford the Max. However, it all depends on how much money the Spirit wants to put into the team. I don't know anything about their assets so I can't tell how much they can afford.

[Guest]

Quote:

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What happens with MArvin the year after? We need to sign him to an extension in the 5 year 50 mil range.

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Marvin can sign an extension this summer of up to 5 years with 10.5% raises starting at 25% of the cap. Yet again, affording him will be up to our owners because the salary cap is not an issue with this current team.

[HawkNJersey]

I don't think 9 million will be enough. Howard got a Max deal. I'm not trying to compare the 2 directly, but that will weigh into his asking price. Shawn Marion is a Max guy....and Smoove is already putting up better stats. I don't know how much the Hawks can afford, but this will be a long off-season.

[DJlaysitup]

Quote:

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...And I'm also asking about, how much...can we afford? Because we know what Marion is getting paid. And I'm afraid that may be a benchmark, when the season is over. Do we pay him for what he brings today or what he'll provide us in the future? Considering he's only 21...

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Considering he is only 21...wow...is he stays healthly and continues to develop aspects of the game and is still an effective forward in the NBA at age 35? Can you imagine how much money he will sock away?

[DavidSomerset]

I was referring to what YOU think he'd get...And from your post, I'm guessing it will be something around a 6 year 84 million dollar contract???

[HawkNJersey]

lol

Not a bad job trade, for a non college attendee...

[Guest]

Quote:

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I don't think 9 million will be enough.

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That was what I felt he deserves. I based this off of wins produced from the book Wages of Wins: http://www.wagesofwins.com/Hawks0507.html

What I think he deserves doesn't mean that is what I think he will get. There isn't a connection there at all.

[Guest]

Quote:

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I was referring to what YOU think he'd get...And from your post, I'm guessing it will be something around a 6 year 84 million dollar contract???

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$9 mil

$9.945

$10.89

$11.835

$12.78

$13.725

Total - $68.175 mil

I actually miscalculated what I thought initially, so I would say ~$68 mil over 6 years is what I believe he deserves. I know he will get more, but that is my feeling based on wins produced.

[cowa]

IMO, I think he will look for something in the $10M starting range. But here's a thought. Just read Thorpe's chat, and says there is trouble in Phoenix with Amare's attitude. Now, the last thing we need is to bring a primadonna (with possibly bad knees) onto our roster, but let's just play along for a minute. Let's say Amare doesn't get along with the rest of the club and they make a 1st round exit in the playoffs. If they decided to make a roster change around Amare, we could offer them Smith and Zaza, and get back Amare and Banks (who they would want to move as well). With Phoenix giving us $18.9M in salaries, we would need to sign Josh to an $11.2M salary, which seems plausible.

The odds of something like this happening are ridiculously small, but the point is that Smith will sign for whatever somebody is willing to offer. And when it comes to S&T deals, the max is the limit.