Bibb'ys assist will go up

[b3bawla]

I think we will be pleasantly suprised by Mike Bibby's playmaking ability. I think it's funny how short people's memory can be. In the three years Bibby was in Vancouver, he averaged 6.5, 8.1, and 8.4 assists per game. Mind you, Vancouver was not an offensive juggernaut...they averaged 88.9, 93.9, and 91.7 ppg. Those two years of 8 assist per game was on a team that didn't score THAT much.

So why the decrease in assists when he went to Sacto? Sacramento runs the Princeton (aka motion) offense. The offense usually starts out with four players outside the three point arc with one player at the top of the key. The ball is kept in constant motion through passing until either a mismatch allows a player to cut inside to the basket or a player without the ball cuts toward the unoccupied area under and around the basket, and is passed the ball for a lay-up. Having a strong post player is important because this player is critical to passing to backdoor cutters, and can draw help defense to open outside shots. It requires all five players on the floor to be adept at ball handling, dribbling, passing, and shooting.

In this offense ball handling, dribbling, passing and shooting are all shared. On the 2004 Kings Webber had 5.5 apg, Peja 2.1, Mobley 3.4, Miller 3.9, Christie 4.9, Bobby Jackson 2.4, and Kenny Thomas 2.9. The Kings have had some great passing big men while Bibby has been there (Webber, Divac, Sharef, Brad miller). They actually run their offense through the high post, where players weave around that area to get open. So Bibby's skills in making the pass that leads directly to a bucket where de-emphasized and his ability to shoot off the handoff, catch, and single dribble emphasized.

When Bibby played in a more traditional offense (where the PG generally makes plays for the rest of the team), he put up big time assists numbers. Had Vancouver run more and/or had better scorers he'd probably would have averaged around 10 dimes a game.

Do I think he'll average 10 a game for us? No. Do I think his assist total will go up? Yes (if we can hit some shots).

I expect Bibby to average about 7-7.5 assists for us this year and about 16 points (like Chauncy Billups lite).