Bisonblue's Reality Check Post

[KB21]

Bisonblue, a person I have historically disagreed with on issues in the past, posted a post entitled Reality Check at the Hawks message board at Real GM.

This is one of the first times that I have agreed with what he has said.

I won't post his post verbatum, but this is a synopsis of what he said.

The Hawks free agents haven't gotten much interest in the offseason. Atlanta will very likely be able to resign them on the cheap. I feel that before JT signs a low ball, long term deal, he will sign the one year tender he currently has and try again next offseason. It's likely that Dion Glover and DerMarr Johnson could resign at near the league minimum for 1-2 years. A veteran that may very well be added is Steve Smith. Yes, his knees are shot, but he has more know how than any player on this team. Smith will likely play a role where he starts and finishes games with Glover/Johnson playing major minutes behind him.

Boris Diaw is going to play a major role on this team this year. Yes, he's young, but he will be the starting small forward for this team this year.

Neither Shareef Abdur-Rahim nor Theo Ratliff will be dealt in any blockbuster deals.

The Hawks team will be:

PG - Terry, Dickau

SG - Smith, Glover, Hansen

SF - Diaw, Johnson, Crawford

PF - Abdur-Rahim, Henderson

C - Ratliff, Mohammed

[Diesel]

If it were really reality and NOT just preference, there are some things that you would have to concede....

1. All the moves you described are moves that won't help us win. We would have the same 35 win squad we had last year, lest it's best on man defender and it's best scorer.

2. The truth about Reef is that we are in no position to be competitive before Reef's and Theo's contracts are up.

What that means realistically is that we will not be competitive with a 14 million dollar and an 11 million dollar contract on the team. Do we give them extensions when their contracts are up in two years? I believe if they don't make us competitive then we don't. Do you think they will sign for less in 2 years? Realistically, if we are not a team that is making strides towards winning a title why would they? The easy answer is that we trade. That's the realistic answer.

If you want to talk about Preference... I too would love to keep Reef, Theo, JT. I would love to get DJ and watch him blossom into TMAC. I would love to see Diaw develop into Scottie pippen. I would love to see Smitty play for us and become Player/Coach ala Terry Porter. I would love to see Nique have a strong role in the coaching of this team. I would love to see Fratello Back. I would love to see McDavid come in and Spend Big Money to put us on track to winning.......

However,

When you talk about Realism.... Realistically.

1. Keeping Reef and Theo around just because we like them and don't want to see them go is not realistic. We are in the midst of a rebuild. If Deals that gave us picks and Capspace were to come along, I don't see us passing them up.

2. Diaw is no where close to being Scottie Pippen. He's not even close to being Dennis Scott.

3. DJ is a huge Gamble but he will probably fit on a 12 man roster.

4. Glover may not be back. Smitty could be here but who knows.

5. Stotts and Knight are still interim depending on the next ownership move.

6. McDavid probably don't have large pockets so what we will become is a cheap team that's only looking to maintain a good financial standing instead of a team that will put it all out to win.

[Traceman]

pretty close to the way it is.

I think that Theo or Reef can be had for the right deal that returns lottery picks and/or young, potential All Star talent and ending contracts. Preferably all 3.

While Boris Diaw may start, I don't think he is going to be very effective. Therefore, if STARTING equates to "major role," then he will probably play a major role. However, if BEING EFFECTIVE equates to "major role," I DON'T think he will play a major role. At this point, I'd just as soon see him start alongside DJ and let them lose and learn by playing through their mistakes.

I think Nazr will be moved for an ending contract or possibly for a young talent at SG or SF (unless Theo is moved first).

As for Smitty, he makes sense. I also think we can land Glover and DJ relatively cheaply.

[Diesel]

When I'm not posing trade of the days... I'm right about 90% of the time.

Anyway...

Just one thing. I think it's a bad idea to assume that Diaw will just pick up the game by playing alongside DJ/JT. I think that's a big mistake.

As big as thinking that JT would learn to be a PG playing with JR and JJ.

I think Diaw needs somebody who will come in and help him on court with his development.

That's why I would like to see us trade for Person.

If it's Theo/CC for Person/Lo... I'd be all over it. Especially if Nazr were available to play soon.

The reason being is because Person is a guy who has played and knows the game and also can shoot.

I also, would expect some of the same help from a guy like Smitty. I'd play Smitty at Sf with Diaw as OG. I think it's important because Young Smitty (who played for Miami) was like Diaw. Athletic, Big, with Ball handling skills. I think Smitty would do a fine job of helping to train Diaw and JT. Face it, JT needs guidance and he needs somebody to take the role of leadership off his back.

If we made no trades and went into the season with:

JT/Diaw/Smith/SAR/Theo...

We wouldn't be a championship team, but we'd be a good mix that is heading towards a good reLOAD. Realistically though.. Weather we rebuild or Reload, the future doesn't look like it has both SAR and Theo in it.

[Traceman]

What's the use of trading for Person's ending salary if we pick up Lo's LONGER salary in the process? Makes no sense. We could do a LOT better than that for Theo. We might even be able to get rid of Nazr/CC for Person. Makes no sense. NONE!

[Diesel]

LO/Nazr is more compatible with Reef and the team than Theo.

In the process, we kill CC's Contract and 4 million off Theo's contract.

The purpose is,

Next year we would have:

LO/Nazr

SAR/Hendu

_________

DIaw/Hansen

JT/DD

with about 8-11 million under the cap to spend on a good FA.

Courtney Alexander New Orleans Restricted Free Agent

Robert Archibald Memphis Free Agent

Stacey Augmon New Orleans Free Agent

Dalibor Bagaric Chicago Restricted Free Agent

Brent Barry Seattle Free Agent

Lonny Baxter Chicago Free Agent

Ruben Boumtje Boumtje Portland Free Agent

Elton Brand L.A. Clippers Free Agent

J.R. Bremer Boston Free Agent

Jamison Brewer Indiana Free Agent

Rasual Butler Miami Free Agent

Anthony Carter Miami Free Agent

Sam Clancy Philadelphia Free Agent

Keon Clark Sacramento Free Agent

Jarron Collins Utah Free Agent

Jamal Crawford Chicago Restricted Free Agent

Michael Curry Detroit Free Agent

Hubert Davis Detroit Free Agent

Andrew DeClercq Orlando Free Agent

Vlade Divac Sacramento Free Agent

Keyon Dooling L.A. Clippers Restricted Free Agent

Bryce Drew New Orleans Free Agent

Pedrag Drobnjak Seattle Free Agent

Danny Ferry San Antonio Free Agent

Marcus Fizer Chicago Restricted Free Agent

Tremaine Fowlkes L.A. Clippers Free Agent

Adonal Foyle Golden State Free Agent

Lawrence Funderburke Sacramento Free Agent

Kevin Garnett Minnesota Free Agent

Emanuel Ginobili San Antonio Free Agent

Gordan Giricek Orlando Free Agent

Tom Gugliotta Phoenix Free Agent

Richard Hamilton Detroit Free Agent

Tim Hardaway Indiana Free Agent

Junior Harrington Denver Free Agent

Trenton Hassell Chicago Free Agent

Lindsey Hunter Toronto Free Agent

Avery Johnson Dallas Free Agent

Ken Johnson Miami Free Agent

Jumaine Jones Cleveland Free Agent

Jason Kidd New Jersey Free Agent

Brevin Knight Memphis Free Agent

Travis Knight New York Free Agent

Toni Kukoc Milwaukee Free Agent

Sean Lampley Miami Free Agent

Tito Maddox Houston Free Agent

Corey Maggette L.A. Clippers Free Agent

Jamaal Magloire New Orleans Restricted Free Agent

Kenyon Martin New Jersey Restricted Free Agent

Desmond Mason Milwaukee Restricted Free Agent

Antonio McDyess New York Free Agent

Stanislav Medvedenko L.A. Lakers Free Agent

Ron Mercer Indiana Free Agent

Chris Mihm Cleveland Restricted Free Agent

Darius Miles Cleveland Restricted Free Agent

Andre Miller L.A. Clippers Free Agent

Mike Miller Memphis Restricted Free Agent

Chris Mills Golden State Free Agent

Lamar Odom L.A. Clippers Free Agent

Mehmet Okur Detroit Free Agent

Greg Ostertag Utah Free Agent

Chris Owens Memphis Free Agent

Jannero Pargo L.A. Lakers Free Agent

Wesley Person Memphis Free Agent

Morris Peterson Toronto Restricted Free Agent

James Posey Houston Free Agent

Joel Przybilla Milwaukee Restricted Free Agent

Igor Rakocevic Minnesota Free Agent

Zeljko Rebracca Detroit Free Agent

Glen Rice Houston Free Agent

Quentin Richardson L.A. Clippers Restricted Free Agent

Jamal Sampson Milwaukee Free Agent

Pepe Sanchez Detroit Free Agent

Ansu Sesay Seattle Free Agent

Tamar Slay New Jersey Free Agent

DeShawn Stevenson Utah Restricted Free Agent

Bruno Sundov Boston Free Agent

Bob Sura Golden State Free Agent

Stromile Swift Memphis Restricted Free Agent

Jason Terry Atlanta Free Agent

Etan Thomas Washington Restricted Free Agent

Robert Traylor New Orleans Free Agent

Jake Tsakalidis Phoenix Restricted Free Agent

Hidayet Turkoglu Sacramento Restricted Free Agent

Rasheed Wallace Portland Free Agent

Charlie Ward New York Free Agent

Eric Williams Boston Free Agent

Monty Williams Philadelphia Free Agent

[Traceman]

We'll be over the cap with just the salaries of the guys you listed below! In 04/05:

Reef - $14.6 Mil

Hendu - $8.3 Mil

Lo - $7.0 Mil

Nazr - $5.3 Mil

Diaw - 1.0 Mil

DD - $.9 Mil

That is $37.1 million BEFORE we resign JT and assuming Hansen has a 1 year deal. JT will make AT LEAST $6 million in 04/05 if he's resigned. That would put us at $43.1 million, just $700,000 less than this year's cap level of $43.8 million. We're at 43.1 million with only 7 players on the roster.

Basically, if we do your deal and resign JT, we're already over the cap. There is no "8-11 million under the cap to spend on a good FA."

[Diesel]

Reef - $14.6 Mil

Hendu - $8.3 Mil

Theo - 10.9 million

Nazr - $5.3 Mil

Diaw - 1.0 Mil

DD - $.9 Mil

CC - 3.25 Mil.

As I said before. Making the trade, we lose about 7 Million dollars under the cap.

For if we don't make the trade, using your same assumptions...

49.25 Million without having JT signed. That means we are already over the cap and we are peering into the Luxury tax area.

It just goes back to what I have said before... There's no way that both Reef and Theo are staying. NO Way.

[KB21]

Imagine that we stay relatively the same with the exception of adding a veteran leader like Steve Smith.

Imagine that Glover continues to play the way he played as a starter.

We would basically be the same team that had the 4th best record in the Eastern Conference after the All-Star break once Glover was inserted into the starting line up. That is, with the exception that the small forward is now a much better defender and passer than the small forward we had last year.

[Diesel]

Reality is we won't stay the same.

Because staying the same means that we will be at 49.5 Million before signing JT and 3 other FAs...

Can you say Luxury tax??

Also, staying the same means that we WONT win anything.

Staying the same says:

1. We don't care about winning.

2. We don't care about the future.

[Inside_Man]

I think the Hawks will sign JT, Dion and Smitty (for leadership and citizenship reasons). I don't think they will offer DJ a contract. Who knows what all the medical ramifications of DJ's situation are, but I'd guess that no exec will risk him wearing their teams' colors and be paralyzed in a freak accident. Hope I'm wrong, but when they drafted Boris, it seemed like they were trying to draft for exactly the reason they got DJ, i.e. a backcourt presence that can't be mismatched with JT on the floor.

[Traceman]

is WAY off again! That is nowhere NEAR being accurate! The salaries of the guys you listed is $44.25 million NOT $49.25 million. That is over the salary cap but it is SIGNIFICANTLY less than the luxury tax threshold. Theoretically, we could sign JT to a deal paying $9 million (we're not going to do it but we COULD) and STILL not pay luxury tax in 04/05.

At any rate, if we trade Nazr/CC for Wes Person, in 04/05:

Reef - $14.6 Mil

Theo - $10.9 Mil

Hendu - $8.3 Mil

Diaw - 1.0 Mil

DD - $.9 Mil

That is $35.70 million in salaries before we resign JT. We wouldn't have enough caproom to sign a big FA (assuming we resigned JT) but we would still be in a great position to reload in 05/06. By including Lo in a trade, we would have $7 million less in 05/06 than we would by not including him. Trading for him is a HORRIBLE idea.