How can we measure Bobby Cox's worth?

[CBAreject]

How many wins does a good manager buy you? I'm betting most baseball fans would say "a few", and most might say that a good manager makes the difference in a tight race. Well, how do we measure how good a manger is at buying those few extra wins? I think there's only one good way. It's well known that run differential is an excellent predictor of record over the course of a long season. ESPN.com uses the "pythagorean theorem" to calculate expected wins for each team. Look here for the ExWL column to see each team's expected record. Now, I don't think a manager can make his team score more runs or give up fewer runs, but he just might be able to "win the close ones". A bad manager just might "lose the close ones". If that reasoning holds, we should see that the good managers consistently field teams that slightly outperform their expected won-lost record.

At the time of this writing, the Braves are in 2nd place behind the Phillies, but you'll notice the Phillies run differential is far worse than the Braves (+77 to +125). The ExWL is alarmingly different. The Braves "should be" 85-55 and the Phillies "should be" 79-62 based on run differentials. The Phillies are outperforming their expectation by 2 games. The Braves are underperforming by 5 games. In fact, the Braves have the second worst differential in the MLB (the Cardinals are -6). Now, in any given season, a team might get "lucky" or "unlucky" to the tune of a few games here or there, but over the course of several seasons, those things should begin to even out. Let's see how the Braves have done for the last 5 seasons relative to their ExWL (in games above or below their expectation.

2010: -5

2009: -6

2008: -6

2007: -5

2006: -6

That's alarming, folks. We see here that the Braves have consistently underperformed by roughly 5 and a half games per season each of the last 5 seasons. Now, some might argue that "the close ones" are more a function of the bullpen. Well, the Braves have one of the best bullpens in baseball this year, and yet they sit 5 games below their expectation. They are 20-21 in 1-run games thus far. So in spite of a good bullpen, the Braves are mediocre to poor in "the close ones". Others might say the bench decides the close ones. Well, the Braves have one of the deepest benches in baseball.

I've noticed this trend developing for several years, and I generally chalked it up to bad luck and a lousy bullpen (the 2008 team was 11-30 in 1-run games), but it has gone on too long to be explained by luck, and it continues in spite of a lousy bullpen.

I think there's only one explanation for this trend, and that is the man in the dugout. I'm sure I'll be roasted for saying this, but the facts and data speak against Bobby Cox as a good manager. How bad is he? Let's see who has underperformed the worst over those last 5 seasons. These are the worst 10 teams in terms of underperformance in that span:

Braves: -28

Indians: -22

Jays: -20

Cubs: -9

Dbacks: -9

Dodgers: -8

A's: -6

Rangers: -6

Rockies: -5

Orioles: -4

Now, 2 things should jump out. First, the Braves are by far the worst team in the majors for the last 5 years in terms of underperforming their expected record. Second, it is remarkably rare for a team to underperform by so much! Only 2 teams are within shouting distance of the Braves. The other 27 teams in MLB aren't even in double digits.

Another interesting fact: No other team in MLB has posted a negative differential in terms of actual versus expected record EVERY YEAR for the last 5 years. Only Bobby Cox's Braves.

Many of us have thought we criticized Bobby because "the grass is always greener". This data is too overwhelming to deny, though. No manager has performed worse in close games over the last 5 years.

Edited September 9, 2010 by CBAreject

[Dexmethylphenidate]

That's remarkable isn't it? I find it surprising that the stat is actually pretty accurate. Some times I don't get Bobby Cox; my biggest grips is that he would rest his left handed starters (McCann, Hinske and sometimes Heyward) for a lefty even if that lefty is pretty bad. He doesn't give his starter a chance to get used to left handed pitching. Wonder why the Braves suck versus left hander and record is mediocre against them? Yeah that's probably it. I also don't get the time where he would bring Medlen out of the bullpen even when he's lights out as a starting pitcher... why change his routine up? Also all those unnecessary trades after the all star break are useless..actually made the Braves worse. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.