Hoopinion: Rampant Josh Smith Trade Speculation

[Hawksquawk]

The news waits not for the part-time analyst. The essence of my still unfinished Josh Smith season review is that, though Smith had a lesser season in 2010-11 than in 2009-10, the particulars of his lesser performance demonstrated a possible broadening of his skills and there's a plausible chance that Smith has not yet peaked.

In short: If he can defend at the three in reasonable circumstances and if he can keep making more than 70% of his free throw attempts and take many, many, many, many fewer jump shots, then Smith could consistently be a special player over the last two years of his contract. And, if the worrying things about Smith's season, especially the settling for jump shots and the drop in offensive rebound rate, are indicative of an early peak that has already passed, then Smith's contract only runs two more years at a reasonable (at least under the current CBA) cost for a clearly above average player.

Good production? Check.

Room for plausible improvement? Check.

Reasonable contract? Check.

Result: the Atlanta Hawks are, reportedly, considering trade Josh Smith.

It started with Adreian Wojnarowski:

The Atlanta Hawks have started to gauge trade interest on forward Josh Smith, and Smith isn’t averse to ending his seven-year stay with his hometown team, league sources told Yahoo! Sports on Monday.

Smith hasn't requested a trade, but has privately told league friends that the Boston Celtics, New Jersey Nets, Houston Rockets and Orlando Magic are his preferred destinations should the Hawks decide to move him.

"The relationship has run its course," said a league source with knowledge of the dynamic.

Wojnarowski's report also included this priceless quote coming less than 365 days after the Hawks offered Joe Johnson his current contract:

"They’re looking for a change," one Eastern Conference executive said.

"They would die to be rid of Joe Johnson's contract

or move Smith, but they won’t give [smith] away. They want something in return."

Let's ask the above questions with regard to Joe Johnson.

Good production? If you completely ignore defense.

Room for plausible improvement? He could shoot better next season.

Reasonable contract? No.

Result: the Atlanta Hawks are, reportedly, considering trade Josh Smith.

Trading Josh Smith is a defensible idea. It's at least as plausible that he's going to continue to be stubborn and undermine his talents as it is that he'll improve one more time. But one can't ignore that the consideration as to whether or not to trade Smith is influenced by the indefensible decision to give Joe Johnson $123 million. Trading Smith could improve the team but it's more likely just to change the team. Smith's trade value is at a two-year low and Johnson's contract will continue to limit the organization's flexibility.

Furthermore, a defensible idea does not guarantee competent execution. It was perfectly reasonable both for the Hawks decide they could keep just one of Marvin Williams and Josh Childress and to choose Williams. However, giving Williams $35 million to remain the team's fifth- or sixth-option and getting a lone second-round pick four years later in exchange for Childress are both terrible allocations of resources.

Trading Josh Smith for a superior player or for a collection of young players and draft picks could help the Atlanta Hawks. Trading Josh Smith for a lesser player and using any leftover money to re-sign Jamal Crawford will almost certainly not.

It should be noted that, of the four teams Wojnarowski lists as Smith's "preferred destinations," at least two (Boston and Orlando) make little practical sense (at least as part of a two-team trade). Making salaries work, Houston could offer Luis Scola and one of Terrence Williams, Goran Dragic, Courtney Lee or Patrick Patterson while any deal involving just the Nets would almost have to begin with Travis Outlaw a state of affairs that could only serve to bolster Marvin Williams' reputation.

It should be further noted (and mostly has not) that Josh Smith still has a 15% trade kicker, further complicating any responsible speculation.

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