How CBA may be altered in near future (per Shams)

[sturt]

Among the most critical issues, the NBA and NBPA are negotiating new luxury-tax tiers and rates to increase the lower tier and make it more viable for teams to spend money into the tax. As salaries continue to increase across the league, increasing the lower tax bracket tier allows the tax tiers to match up with the money being spent.

Currently, for between $0 and $4,999,999 over the cap, the tax rate is $1.50 for every dollar over the cap. For teams between $5,000,000 and $9,999,999 over the cap, the tax rate is $1.75 for every dollar over the cap. The NBA and NBPA are attempting to identify where the tax bracket tiers should be set — while maintaining the punitive state of the upper tax levels.

Since everything about these dividing lines is completely up for negotiation in a new CBA, the two sides can redo them to make a small dip into the tax more manageable and then step up the charges for those franchises willing to dive head first into the tax. Increasing each of the thresholds that make up the luxury tax (often called “bands”) that lead to steeper tax payments also makes sense with a league that has much higher revenues and thus a much higher salary cap than they did in previous agreements.

The NBA currently has a seven-year CBA that expires after the 2023-24 season.

For the NBA, the issues of load management and resting among players and teams are core concerns, as well as the Diamond Sports’ Regional Sports Network and its economic model being able to sustain the broadcasting of 16 of the league’s teams.

The sides are also discussing several other core issues:

• Lowering the age eligibility for the NBA Draft to 18 years old, which would effectively end the one-and-done system in college basketball. The NBA and NBPA have momentum on an agreement to terms that would lower the age to 18 for the draft, but sources say the union is pushing for conditions that would facilitate veteran players providing tutelage and orientation to the high schoolers entering the league. The players union wants to maintain the presence of veteran players and not allow newcomers to replace them, especially in the cases of teams with high school prospects who enter the NBA.

• Increasing the contract extension limits, which would add flexibility and have significant effects incredibly quickly. Under the current CBA, teams and players can only increase the player’s salary by 120 percent in the first new year of the extension unless that player qualifies as a designated player/rookie or makes well below the league’s average salary. Shifting that 120 percent to potentially 140-150 percent as the sides have discussed, according to sources, opens the door a lot more for players who signed contracts that eventually become below-market deals to get enough of a raise to commit ahead of time, a group that potentially includes O.G. Anunoby, Domantas Sabonis and Lauri Markkanen over the next few seasons.

• Smoothing out the process by which the salary cap rises instead of allowing the cap to spike, which occurred in 2016 and led to several overpriced contracts.

[AHF]

Thanks for the update, sturt.

 

I'm still not a big fan of lowering the age limit to 18 and having teams evaluate these kids without anything more than high school ball at the time they have to commit to using top draft picks on them but I think that ship has sailed.  (As an aside, I'd say you can look at any year and see huge differences between the rankings for high school players and the impact of having the extra year to evaluate them against more robust competition.

Example: 

Top of the 2017 Draft

High School Rankings:  https://future150.com/hs/basketball-rankings/archive/2016

Actual Draft (US players)

1 - Markelle Fultz (not in the top 50)

2 - Lonzo Ball (#27)

3 - Jayson Tatum (#3)

 

Other Notables:

#5 De'Ron Davis (undrafted)

#8 Udoka Azubuike (drafted #27)

#9 Edrice Adebayo (undrafted)

#10 Kobi Simmons (undrafted)

 

So if this draft happens after high school and the pro scouts rank them anywhere near to where the college scouts ranked them you  have nearly half of the top 10 who aren't going anywhere near where ranked and other teams are getting huge windfalls taking guys who went near the top of the draft much, much later.

I consider both of those to be undesirable outcomes for fans of those teams trying to rebuild through the lottery.  Making that more challenging (i.e., scouting with less information is less reliable) just doesn't seem to benefit the game.

But I am sympathetic to the idea that this doesn't serve the careers of these young players and if De'Ron Davis can become a millionaire as a teenager then I suppose good for him even if the fans of the team who drafted him will curse him for the next 20 years.