Peachtree Hoops: Three questions for the Hawks during this stretch run

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With no fewer than 18 games left to play, what answers can this team give us?

After making a coaching change midseason in the spring of 2023, the Hawks looked adrift amid the chaos surrounding the franchise. The Dejounte Murray trade gamble, to that point, had yet to bear much fruit, and internally there were unsettling rumors about who was really calling the shots at the top.

But after righting the ship to a degree, the Hawks rolled the Miami Heat in a critical Play-In game before giving the then reigning Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics a tough six-game first-round series in the Playoffs. Growth was then expected in the 2023-24 season after an agreement was reached on a Dejounte Murray contract extension.

It’s safe to say this season hasn’t gone according to plan.

The Hawks look like they’re now on a collision course with the 10-seed in the Eastern Conference — a path that in all likelihood will require a road win at the Chicago Bulls then a road win at any of Miami, Philadelphia, Orlando, Indiana, or even New York just to reach the Playoffs.

Even then, their grand payoff would almost certainly be to face a top-seeded Boston Celtics squad that is threatening for one of the 10 or so best net ratings in league history.

Yikes.

This is a team that has recently been beset by a bevy of injuries and roster mismanagement, the latter in my others’ estimation. And as such, the Hawks are faced with a lost season at the same time a couple of upstart East teams like the Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers look to have passed them by in the conference.

But at 29-35, 3.5 games clear of the Brooklyn Nets for the final Play-In spot, Atlanta still has 18 regular season games to prove themselves and try set themselves up for as offseason that may include structural changes to the roster.

But before we get there, here are three questions I have for the team over the final month of the season.

Can Dejounte Murray lead a capable enough offense?

With Trae Young’s unfortunate injury to his radial collateral ligament in the pinky of his left hand, Dejounte Murray has taken the reins of the Hawks offense. The early returns, however, have plainly spotlighted Young’s absence on this offense.

From the beginning of the season until Young’s absence, the Hawks sported a top-10 offensive efficiency. But since that moment — even accounting for a league-wide drop in scoring — the Hawks have landed at the 15th-best offense in the league, a gap of around 3.5 points per 100 possessions.

On the surface, Dejounte Murray’s raw numbers don’t indicate that big a drop in production. Murray is averaging 24.1 points, 8.8 assists, 5.5 rebounds and just 2.8 turnovers per game since Young went down. But it’s pretty clear to see the number of plays Murray can’t quite make for his teammates in attempting to step into the lead guard role. His pick-and-roll actions with Clint Capela among others is clunkier and less productive, and I question his ability to break away from his low-efficiency isolation tendencies in times of tough sledding.

In addition, the Hawks haven’t faced a ton of tough competition recently, largely facing off against teams just as banged up as they are. Still, the Hawks need Murray’s ability to scale up and score without Young for the time being. But if Young can’t return in time for the postseason, these final 18 games will be a key evaluation tool in the future of the Young-Murray backcourt duo.

What else can young players show us?

While the Hawks still have plenty to achieve this season, it’s clear that the long-term vision must be held in focus most of all. Head coach Snyder and his newly built staff have repeatedly preached the value of organization building and internal player development.

The emergence of Jalen Johnson, despite being beset by a couple of fluky injuries, has inarguably been the biggest positive from the season. Despite a recent cooling off of his three-point shot, Johnson is still averaging 15.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per contest. He’s also provided a level of secondary playmaking that the Hawks forwards ranks haven’t seen since the days of Paul Millsap and Al Horford.

Kobe Bufkin has earned some playing time with the senior squad, and he’s brought a level of defensive tenacity the perimeter had sorely been missing. Rookie Mouhamed Gueye has shown some promising flashes in the G League with the College Park Skyhawks — as has second-year player AJ Griffin in something of a shock down season that saw him miss a large chunk of the season with a personal absence.

With the injuries really mounting up, do Gueye, Griffin or Seth Lundy get brought back to the senior squad when healthy themselves? Atlanta will need the fruits of their development labor soon with a first-round pick crunch looming after this upcoming draft.

Is this the real De’Andre Hunter?

Last offseason, I questioned De’Andre Hunter’s true impact to this team. After trading up to draft Hunter fourth overall in the 2019 NBA Draft, his career progression has been set back by a nagging right knee injury he initially sustained in his second season. But after yet another injury setback in his fifth season this year, Hunter has embraced a sixth-man role that has seen his production flourish in limited minutes.

The biggest reason for improved impact is a tweaked shot profile. He has cut the midrange fat out of his shot diet and is attempting a higher frequency of his shots at the rim and from three since returning from injury on January 30.

Hunter is shooting 46% of his shots from three, hitting 44% of those attempts, since returning from that knee injury — all from off the bench. Hunter is also attempting 28% of his shots from inside 10 feet in the same span, hitting a team-high 63% off shot attempts among Hawks with at least 100 shots since his return. His greater willingness to drive into the lane has forced teams to foul him, upping his free throw rate to 39% in the new calendar year.

As a result of all of this, ‘Dre’ has posted a sky-high 65% true shooting percentage during this time span, although some of that is bolstered by unsustainably high shooting from deep. Even with some shooting regression, Hunter is enjoying the best stretch of his career since the beginning of the 2019-20 season, the season in which he suffered the initial injury.

Last game against the New Orleans Pelicans, Hunter cracked 30 minutes in a game for the first time since December 8. And with Saddiq Bey’s season-ending ACL tear, the Hawks will need his improved contribution to the team more than ever to close out the season.

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