The Hawks won't finish with the worst record

[Nicholasp27]

that's why they are probabilities...they are just the odds of something happening

how come sometimes you get 5 0's in roulette in a 10-spin span? They only have a 1/36 chance of coming up, which is far off from 50%

the thing again is SAMPLE SIZE

anyway, on to your problem:

the first spin they had a 1/4 chance of getting the pick (250/1000)

the second spin they had a 250/936 or 26.7% chance

the third spin they had a 250/736 or 33.9% chance

the fourth spin they had a 250/650 or 38.4% chance and they got it

so even after 3 spins, their odds were still less than 34%

yes, there was only a 6.4% chance of NJ getting the top pick, but it happens...heck, u have a 1/10000000 chance of winning the lotto but it happens...and again, that's just 1 year, so bad sample size...if this happened consistently over 100 years or so, it'd be different, but u can't use one example as proof

not to mention, anything greater than 5% isn't considered suspicious, especially in such a small sample size

and their chances were 6%, 21% and 12%

this is how statistics get wrongly used to "prove" anything and why so many people lose money in Vegas on "sure bets"

[Nicholasp27]

btw, there was a 14% chance of them falling to #4 in that example

[Lascar78]

Where did you get 250 from? You need 1000 balls to do the drawing. As far as the numbers, you clearly don't understand statistics so I'm not going to keep arguing, it's pointless. Statistics tend to be true over large samples (let's discuss this agin once there have been one or two hundred drafts). Chicago didn't get "passed over" by the three other teams. It's still a random drawing. Every single ball in there has equal odds of getting pulled. You can go out and buy 100 lottery tickets, and yet some random guy who only bought one might win because it's still random. If not all you'd have to do is buy more lottery tickets than anyone else and you'd be pretty sure you'd win ??!!?? Aaah, why am I bothering, you clearly don't get it

As far as other people believing it, of course there are. There are 12 pissed off lottery franchises every year. Of course some of those that got 'screwed' will be sore losers and say a fix might have been in. It's more fun to speculate about conspiracies. That's why there are people who believe Elvis and 2Pac are alive. The bottom line is they're dead, the lottery's not fixed, and you still haven't told me how it's even possible for them to fix it without taking MAJOR risks. If they wanted to fix it they'd do it all in house without independent verifiers, and CERTAINLY without journalists present

[Diesel]

Oh, I get it fine.

the fact that you don't know where the 250, 200, etc comes from suggest that you don't get it...

However, I understand the math and the probabilities. Sure, there's an 18% chance of the #1 team getting passed over 12 times in 14 years. And the contrary to that using the same formula is that there is a 90% chance that that thing would not have happened...

I'm not blaming the numbers though. My point is why is it done behind closed doors and with computers and several sequences.

"gentlemen, we have the technology!"

It would be far better to do it out in the open.

By the way...

In Diesel's school of Probability... I say there's a 100% chance that if it's done behind closed doors that the Hawks will win the draft Lottery. Any takers! The only formula that I need is NEW ownership + poor attendance + GA Star = Atlanta Wins!! Any takers??

If you really trust those numbers, and it's likely that the Hawks would have less than a 25% chance to win it all. Put your rep on the line.

Any Takers??

No need in us going back and fourth... Let's settle this with baited anticipation of a Who's right and who's wrong showdown.

If you think that it's not rigged, you have at least a 75% chance of being right and I have only (at the most) 25% chance of being right...

Gentlemen... Place your bets!

[Lascar78]

arrrrgggghhhh? I think I've jus gone cross eyed. Of course I know where those numbers come from. I'm getting a PhD right now, I think I can handle a little statistics.

Clearly you don't get it if you still think that atlanta getting it (or not) this year proves anything. Every year's draft is a new drawing that is independent from past years. Just because the hawks will have less than 25% chance of winning, doesn't mean anything's fixed if they win. EVERY TEAM HAS A CHANCE OF 25% OR LESS.

Let me ask you this : Will you give up the conspiracy theories if atlanta is in the bottom teams and does not win the lottery?

I'm not dumb enough to take that bet because I know this is random. I have no knowledge of who will get the #1. I'd be a 3 to 1 favorite, but that doesn't mean I'd win. And I'm not going to bet against what I want to happen. I'm rooting for the hawks to get lucky, but I still know there's no way David Stern is dumb enough to risk a draft fixing scandal that would all but kill the league.

[Diesel]

It's just that simple.

You say Stern won't take the risk. Your numbers say Atlanta only has a 25% or less chance of winning. Why not bet against Atlanta winning? I don't want your money. I want something more simple from you Lascar!

From my perspective, I guess you can call it a Faith Wager. Even though there's a 75% chance that atlanta won't win, I have enough faith that I know and am sure that they will.

What do you believe?

[Lascar78]

Here's the difference: you think atlanta will win regardless, whereas I think it's an honest lottery in which the odds are known and anyone could win. You can bet on what you believe (ATL wins), but I have no way to bet on what I believe in. Atlanta could absolutely win the lottery, just as any other non playoff team can. And I sure as heck hope we do, that would be awesome. I'm not saying atlanta won't win which is why I don't want your bet. All I'm saying is that there's no way it's rigged, even though I understand that it's more fun for the media and people like you to hint at a fix without having to prove anything.

Either way, we both know where we stand, there's no point in yapping back and forth, I think if there was any convincing going on it would have happenned by now. So we can just wait until the lottery and we'll both be rooting for the hawks to win. At least if they don't, I'll have a consolation prize of showing you that there is no fix

[chickenstanly]

"I can't believe people actually believe that the draft lottery is rigged"

_____________________________________

Why not ? There are actually people out there that

believe that people who couldn't fly Cesna's flew

large airliners like fighter pilots into buildings.