The Hawks won't finish with the worst record

[Blunt91]

Despite what guys like Chad Ford and Ric Bucher of ESPN Insider think the Hawks won't finish with the worst record in the league. Now that might not be too good of news for us who want the 1# overall pick but looking at the records of the other bad teams in the league it will be hard for them to make up ground.

Orlando Magic 17,45

Chicago Bulls 18, 42

Washington Wizards 19,39

Phoenix Suns 20, 41

Atlanta hawks 20,40

The only team that I think could move past us are the Washington Wizads. I realistcally don't see any of these teams including us winning more than 5 games the rest of the way. We also have to look at the number of losses each team has right now. The magic have 5 more losses than we do right now so even if they tied us in the wins category we still would have the better record because we have less losses than they do, assuming we keep winning at the pace we are now. I think we end up with the 5th worst record in the league. Hopefully we can get some luck like we did in the 2001 draft and land in the top 3 pick. Then we draft Joshua Smith witht the 3rd overall pick.

[chillzatl]

THe magic are pushing that team to win. They don't want to be the worst team in the league. If they can get that team fired up just enough, they could squeeze out the most wins of anyone on that list.

But again, we don't have to be the worst. The worst team rarely gets teh #1. We only need to be bottom three. Which is more than doable for this team.

Someone should give us a breakdown of the remaining schedules for the bottom 5 teams so we can see how things look.

[Diesel]

Whereever we finish, D. Stern will give us the HOOKUP.

It does the NBA no good to have a market like Atlanta dead. He will do everything in his power to see that we have:

1. Howard.

2. A Top FA who can bring in the fans.

It is scripted for us to get Howard like it was scripted for Cleveland to get James.

[Lascar78]

I can't believe people actually believe that the draft lottery is rigged

[CHORO44]

Well until we get to see it in action I can't help but think it's not rigged. Proffessional sports is all smoke and mirrors. The core business is to make money and the sport is actually secondary in my opinion. This is why I agree with Diesel that the lottery will go in our favor if we finish bottom three.

[Diesel]

I can't believe people actually believe that it's not!

It's been too many times when things went combluey with the draft lottery starting from it's start.

Now ask yourself...

Why have a lottery anyway?

To screw the team with the worst record?

[Diesel]

After years of being turned down for a Date,

It's prom Night, we have: champagne, a hotel room, a couple of bottles of Rum, and it's our turn to take out the easiest girl in school. I have a feeling that we're going to get Lucky and Strike GOLD!!!

[Lascar78]

damn you conspiracists. Let me break it down for you

Ok so you think that all these GM's who essentially have millions and millions of potential dollars at stake just sit back and let David Stern rig the draft and let themselves get screwed? Also when the draft actually occurs the ball drawing is conducted and verified by independent parties, with a select few members of the press also there to observe it(different ones every year). So I'm assuming you're telling me one of the following happens:

-a) the lottery equipment is rigged and the independent company hired to verify everything is bribed to not reveal it, thereby putting their company's reputation and life on the line

-b) David Stern bribes everyone involved in the room at that time, they announce who wins, and he puts the NBA's reputation on the line, and just trusts no one will reveal what happenned EVERY YEAR

-c) David Stern has telkinetic powers and makes the balls he wants appear??

Either way somebody's putting their reputation on the line when they have no reason to. The potential payoffs (choosing who gets what picks) are not even close to the potential losses (destroying the credibility of the NBA - this would be devastating). I think we could agree that the only remote possibility would be for the equipment to be rigged. And it's not like they have the old system with balls for each team. Now they have numbers on each ball and the combination of all the balls that are drawn determine who wins, just like the real lottery basically. So they would have to rig every single ball to control every single ball that is drawn.

I'm very interested to hear how exactly you guys think that the draft would be rigged

I know it's fun to act as if there's a conspiracy, but it's bull. Cleveland won the draft and everyone says it's because it's lebron's hometown. How about because they had the worst record? If NY had one you would have said it's just like the ewing draft, to give the legendary knicks a new hero. If Toronto had won you'd have said it's because stern wanted bball in canada to succeed. If it was the bulls it would have been because they want the *new jordan* in chicago etc... Face it, you can find conspiracies wherever you want them but they're not there

[codyatl]

I take you back a few yrs when a guy named Rick Pitino came back to the nba and headed to bean town. The Celticsa had the worst record in the league and were just sure they would land Duncan. Did that happen? Nope. Case closed. If the lottery was rigged don't you think they would have wanted the celtics to regain their place at the top of the league? I mena there is no franchise w/ a better history than the celtics, none not even the mighty bulls w/ jordan.

You know its kinda funny every time we win a game we lose in the long run. I believe that the magic will win a few more games and that the suns wil pass us as well. we will end up in top 3 worst records no doubt about it.

[Nicholasp27]

i posted a breakdown a few days ago

if i remember correctly, we play each of those 3 teams (not phoenix) 2 more times

at the time i posted it (before last night's win), the worst we could do was be tied with phoenix for 2nd worst if we tanked the season

we play washington and orlando 2 more times, and chicago either 1 or 2 more times

wash/orlando/chicago all play each other as well, so they have to win some...we just hope it's not the same one winning all of those

hopefully we give each of them 2 more wins and they each give each other 1 more win as well, for at least 3 more before end of season

[Nicholasp27]

i posted a breakdown a few days ago

if i remember correctly, we play each of those 3 teams (not phoenix) 2 more times

at the time i posted it (before last night's win), the worst we could do was be tied with phoenix for 2nd worst if we tanked the season

we play washington and orlando 2 more times, and chicago either 1 or 2 more times

wash/orlando/chicago all play each other as well, so they have to win some...we just hope it's not the same one winning all of those

hopefully we give each of them 2 more wins and they each give each other 1 more win as well, for at least 3 more before end of season

[chillzatl]

The way it's done, there's no reason for it to be rigged. I'm sure sometimes it seems that way. But probabilities are not definites. That's the way it is. Teams can get lucky. There's never a certainty that the worst team will get the best pick. It's probable, because the numbers bear that out. But it is not written in stone. The last lotto team could theoretically get the first pick. It's just statistics and probabilities and as anyone who has studied that in school will tell you, there is never a definite.

[macdaddy]

I'm less concerned with the lottery being rigged than with the separate set of offensive foul rules for Shaq. No other player in the league is allowed to just push his defender toward the basket until he can lay it in or dunk. He's good enough to play by the rules why make it easier for him?

[Diesel]

First off, ask yourself, what is the purpose for having a draft Lottery anyway?? I think all would agree that the team with the worst record ought to pick first. So the only true answer to my question is "to screw the team with the worst record."...

And that's the truth... Here's the fact to back it up...

In 14 years, there have only been 2 teams that has every had the worst record and WON the draft lottery. Now, let's think about that... 2 out of 14. If the lottery was not fixed, you would assume that it would favor the team with the worst record....

But back to the first lottery. Pat Ewing. He went to a Knick team with 24 wins. They were not the worst team in the lottery but they were the team with the biggest Market in the lottery.

How else could the struggling Knicks get Georgetown star Patrick Ewing in 1985? How else could the Orlando Magic first get a hulking center from LSU in 1992, Shaquille O'Neal, and then Fab-Fiver Chris Webber (later dealt to Golden State for Penny Hardaway -- ouch) in 1993? How else could the Wizards get the first overall selection in 2001, which coincidentally was also the year of Michael Jordan's glorious return to the hardwood in Washington?

Smells kinda suspicious to me.

But now that the Cavaliers, who shared the NBA's poorest record at 17-65, hit the jackpot, there again are rumblings that something funny was going down in Secaucus, New Jersey last week, that NBA Puppetmaster David Stern pulled his strings once more, only this time he actually lent a hand to his most pitiful product.

It's just too convenient, you argue. Rumors had the Cavs possibly bailing on Cleveland within the next few years thanks to the league's worst home attendance (11,497 last year) and an overall apathetic relationship with their dwindling fan base.

Right now, the Hawks sit in the same place. We have a pitiful attendance, we have a dwindling fan base and unlike Cleveland, Atlanta has the capacity to be a huge Market. We will be #1.

But back to the reason.

Look at the coincidents....

1. Chicago break up it's dynasty (David Stern's favorite era of NBA Basketball ends). What is the punishment? NO #1 picks for you.

2. Boston has the worst record and they have 2 first round lottery picks. They hire outsider Rick Pitino to come in and coach. What happens. They get the 5th and 10th pick of the lottery. The worst picks they could have possibly gotten. So instead of Getting Tim Duncan they get Ron Mercer.

3. GS couldn't capitalize after trading away Webber.

4. Jordan comes back to the Wiz and all the sudden, they get #1 overall.

5. IN the year of Yao, the Rockets possessed the fifth-best chance of receiving one of the top three selections, as Chicago, Golden State, Memphis and Denver all held lower winning percentages than Houston's 28-54 record.

You must account for the politics of the picks as well as the reason why only 2 teams with the worst record has ever won the lottery. That in itself is a big enough anamoly that it supersedes all these other arguments.

[cyman3]

honestly, i dont think it is... but its POSSIBLE!

definitely possible.

[Boondocks]

it's possible allright, guess that's why they allow team representatives to view the actual drawing (which is done via a computer so it could still be rigged).

Nonetheless, no draft lottery would allow a reward for tanking games, can't have that either.

[CHORO44]

The lottery exists to stop teams from tanking the season to guarantee the first pick. I still say that until we return to the old ping pong ball system and watch every ball come out that hopper then I won't be a true believer in it's integrity.

With NBA TV I believe it's now possible to allow us fans to see every pick live since we won't be paying for NBC time.

[Diesel]

Here's my question..

Go back to the Ping Pong Balls. Put in the number of balls based on record order and have an actual pull like they do for the state Lotteries. Yes, you take out the suspense... Because the winning team would be announced first... But, you would also guarantee that nobody believe that the fix was in.

or if you decide to keep the combination crap...

go with that. Put a printout of all the possible combinations and who will win if a certain combination falls. Then do it live on National TV whereby the fans can watch.

Part of the problem (along with the fact that only 2 of the last 14 teams with the worst record has ever won) is that fans don't get to watch the drawing live.

The running Joke is that when the year came (1985) to pick the Pat Ewing, Stern left the Knicks envelope in the freezer all night so that he would know when he was touching NY's envelope on that day.

Plus, with the studio lights, you could almost see right through those envelopes...

[AHF]

I think they do pull the numbers like from the state lottery. They just don't announce them in that order for better TV.

The whole reason the lottery exists is to lessen the incentive to lose. Very easy to understand, IMO. Teams used to tank for the top pick and the league decided to essentially punish teams that do that with a greater risk that they will tank for nothing.

That is a risk with the Hawks this season but I hope you are right and the league rigs it so that the Hawks can draft Howard. I don't believe it for a second but I do hope you are right.

[Lascar78]

they do pull ping pong balls. It's not done by a computer. But those balls don't have teams on them like they used to because they need too many possibilities these days (enough to allow each non lottery team a chance). The balls have numbers. Then they have a list that relates the combinations of those numbers to the various teams.

Let's say there are 10,000 possible combinations. Well before the drawing those 10,000 combinations are split up with the appropriate odds for the teams in the lottery. So they draw 4 balls (I believe it's 4) and look up what team that is, and they have the #1 pick. Then they put the balls back in and re-draw for the 2nd pick. I'm pretty sure that's how it works.

The reason it's not on TV is that they want to be able to announce the 1st pick last