What #4 means vs. #3 in probabilities

[CBAreject]

OK, so we're probably going to finish #4 worst this year. Here's what it means for us and how much it would help to let Washington catch or pass us:

1) Hawks finish as 4th worst team without a tie:

Scenario Probability

Pick 1st 12.0%

Pick 2nd 12.7%

Pick 3rd 13.4%

Pick top 3 38.1%

Pick 5 or below 61.9%

2) Hawks finish as 3rd worst team without a tie

Scenario Probability

Pick 1st 15.7%

Pick 2nd 15.8%

Pick 3rd 15.7%

Pick top 3 47.2%

Pick 5 or below 52.8%

3) Hawks finish tied for 3rd worst with Washington

Scenario Probability

Pick 1st 13.9%

Pick 2nd 14.4%

Pick 3rd 14.0%

Pick top 3 42.3%

Pick 5 or below 57.7%

So, there you have it. Being number 3 vs. number 4 would increase our chances at a top three by almost 25% (47% vs. 38%). Still, having even a 47% chance at a top 3 isn't very comforting.

[phoostal]

Thanks for the info. The only thing is we are 4th, not 3rd. No matter if we lose out it won't matter if Washington doesn't win one more.

Washington's Remaining Schedule

NJ, at Min, Bos, at Mil, at Philly, NY, at Det, NO

The ones they may have a shot at is NJ at home, Philly on the road. Now they could easily win any of these, but those are the realistic games I think they could win. Or they could possiblly not win any of them. Which shouldn't come to surprise to anyone as well. There is a reason they have the 3rd worst record.

P

[Nicholasp27]

And if we win 2 more, we could tie with Phoenix for 4th, lessening our odds even more

and if we won just 3 more of our close games that the nomads "deserved" to win, then we'd be tied with the Clips right now for FIFTH worst record...i didn't do the numbers on it, but that should bring our chances of a top 3 pick to below 25%!

btw, we are TEN games out of the playoffs...if we'd kept Wallace, we would have had to go 10-4 in the 14 we've lost since we traded him...as well as still having won the 6 we have won...so a 16-4 or 80% record woulda been needed to put us tied for 8th right now...

[phoostal]

Well if "if's and but's were candy and nuts we would all have a merry christmas"

I can play the what if game all night. If we didn't trade for Dominique this team would have been in this situation a lot earlier. If we didn't trade Dominique for Manning we would have been world champs. If this team at the beginning of the year would have played to their potential they would be in the playoffs. If this team would have had new ownership in the off season this could have been a different story. If the Clippers and Phoenix didn't lose their close games the gap would be dramatically larger. If Phoenix didn't decide to trade Marbury they would have a better record. If the Clippers didn't resign any of their free agents they would be worse than us no matter what. Get my point.

Going 10-4 with Wallace is realistic. You never know. You really can't say they would or wouldn't. We never saw that team play together but once. And from that game they impressed me against a hot NJ team that had won 10 in a row. We will never know.

The only thing that matters is we need Washington to win one more. Who knows if that is even possible? Who knows if we are in the top three, or where we will end up in the draft. The only guarantee is that we have a better shot at getting a top 3 pick if Washington passes us.

But, this shouldn't matter to you as you have stated it doesn't matter if this team picks 8th. It would still be good for the team to lose regardless if we are picking 1, 2, 3 or even 8th. I believe your quote went something to that degree.

My only point would be if we were picking 8th than I don't know how you could argue the fact of not keeping Wallace. We could have been picking 8th with him.

Who really cares anyways. Right now all that matters is Washington to win.

The Hawks gave great effort last night and I thought they deserved to win. You can disagree all you want. But, an extra ping pong ball isn't going to make me be happy that we lost. If they deserve to win a game I want to see them win. Not praise them because they lost. Not with the effort they gave last night.

There are no guarantees in anything, you just may have better chance of getting a higher pick. Until the draft lottery becomes an exact science, meaning they basically don't have lottery, just give the selection to the worst teams(ala the NFL). Then you mine as well try to win. That's why you play the last time I checked.

Otherwise if you are going to lose you might as well lose. Get blown out, don't show up, go through the motions. There shouldn't be any in between if your goal is to get the chance to have the highest possible pick. In the end you will get what you want the best chance possible for the 1st pick.

P

[Nicholasp27]

u don't get it

no more point in explaining stats to you, as you don't understand what is meant by Expected Value

we have differing opinions, we're both fans of the team, we both have zero input into the future of the team...thus this is all meaningless

however, i will argue the point about changing coaches...the philosophy of a team and its direction are affected by a lot more than just the coach

creating this philosophy now could affect which coach we choose in the offseason to replace stotts, a slow-n-steady coach or a run-n-gun coach as well as set the tempo for the new ownership

[Iman]

Interesting stats, Thanks. Truely we wont know where we draft until the lottery but it's still interesting.

[Weez]

thanks for the stats man. really do appreciate

[phoostal]

One last thing and I will let this rest. Because I agree with you. We all want what is best with this team. We just have different views of how to make it happen.

You did say you like to see this team be competitive, but still lose. That is your ideal situation. A win/win situation as you put it.

Well if this team is going to be compete every night. Odds are that they are going to win sometimes. You can not be competitive and still lose all your games. The odds are that you would win a few and not lose them all.

So wouldn't it be better for the Hawks not to be competitive for the them to get one of those top 3 picks. This is what everyone truly desires. Being competitive could ruin this goal of a top 3 pick.

But, like I said we have a few ways of looking at how this team could be rebuilt. I just wouldn't say anyone's way is better than the other. Unlike some on this site no one is above anyone elses suggestions on how to rebuild.

The fact is we all want this team to be a success. We will see how it works itself out.

P

[CBAreject]

Quote:

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Well if this team is going to be compete every night. Odds are that they are going to win sometimes. You can not be competitive and still lose all your games. The odds are that you would win a few and not lose them all.

---

I have to take exception to this. Nevermind the fact that 'Well if this team is going to be compete every night.' isn't even a sentence. That's not what I'm arguing about.

The thing here is that Nicholas and I both have said that what is IDEAL is that we compete BUT lose. We have never said that such a scenario is probable. We have simply stated that such is the outcome that we would chose if given the choice. Now, you are arguing that the scenario we have chosen is improbable; therefore, we have no right to desire it.

Let's break it down:

NICK's argument: I want the Hawks to play hard and lose close.

PHOOSTAL: You're not a true Hawks fan.

NICK: No, no. Losing is best for us in the long run, but competing gives us a glimmer of hope. It's win/win.

PHOOSTAL: I repeat, you're not a Hawks fan, and we might not even get a good pick if we do lose.

NICK: Sigh. You don't understand expected value. We need to increase our probability in spite of the fact that we cannot be guaranteed a high pick.

PHOOSTAL: OK, but, we probably can't lose and compete at the same time.

NICK: So, you do understand probabilities. However, your point is moot. I've simply stated that it is ideal that we lose and compete, not that it is probable.

[Nicholasp27]

ok i'll spell it out

The Order of My Preferences

1) We lose every game but take them all to the last minute or two of the game

2) We lose every game by 100 points

3) We go .500 the rest of the year

4) We end the year on a nice streak, winning the rest of our games

IDEALLY, we'd do #1...i'd be happy with #2...number 3 and 4 would suck...most likely we'll be somewhere between 1,2 and 3...winning 1-3 more games, some being close some being blowouts

[phoostal]

Sorry for the typo on my previous post, I didn't have my editor look at it before I posted. Next time I will make sure so you won't fine fault with my incomplete sentence that had a typo.

I can't believe I'm having to type an opening paragraph about grammatical errors. You are really something else. You must have people call you Mr. Perfect. But, back to your statement.

I never said you weren't a true fan. I just said with the effort they gave last night they didn't deserve to lose. I don't know how many times I can say that.

Then I followed it up by saying that I find it ironic that fans would hope that they lose when they give that kind of effort.

Where in my argument did I say he wasn't a true fan? I stated that I find it hard to believe that a Hawks fan would root for a team to lose a game against Memphis with the kind of effort they gave. No where did I say you aren't a true Hawks fan.

My final response to your post is in your last sentence:

"I've simply stated that it is ideal that we lose and compete, not that it is probable."

So if we compete and win, will you be upset that the Hawks won? Or would you be typing a post that says damn the Hawks won. Just checking to see where you stand. If you and Nick don't ever complain if the Hawks win then I retract my statements.

However if you are the first to complain when we do win. Then how can you root for the team to be competitive and be pissed win they win. It goes back to my statement that you are bound to win some games if you play competitively.

Ideally you would like them to do both(which is an oxymoron), but we know they are going to win on occassion, so how can you be upset when they do win. You are the ones that wanted them to compete in every game.

You act as if I'm ignorant. Yes, I understand expected value and it's better to lose to get a higher probability of getting a top 3 pick. I get that philosophy. But, you can root for a team to be competitive and still lose. Technically you can. But, it's not going to happen, because if you are competitive you are naturally going to win some games.

Please Reject I know you want to be the word of God on this site, but don't put words into people's mouths. By saying I don't think he is a true fan. We all can manipulate words or quotes to mean what we want them to mean.

Please let me know how many spelling errors, incomplete sentences, punctuation errors and whatever else you deem necessary to point out in your next post.

P

[Nicholasp27]

Yes, the chances of them being competitive like against Memph/Miami every game and still losing every game are low

however, they are higher than our chances were of making the playoffs at the trade deadline

and it's not an oxymoron to be competitive and lose...the hawks have lost TWENTY games by 5 or less points, tied with MIL for that title

like we said, it's an ideal, but we can still root for it

heck, at the beginning of this year we were rooting for the hawks to make a playoff run, but that didn't happen...

[phoostal]

How many games have they won by 5pts or less? I'm sure it to be at least 1 or 2. Which is my point you are going to win some of those games. This team is going to lose more than they win, but they will win some. So we just have two different opinions.

Now at the end of the year we are rooting for this team to lose and we still may not end up with one of three worst records. I guess the team is getting F'd in both directions.

P