Insider Special: Top 5 HS Seniors

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No LeBrons or Amares this year

By Chad Ford

ESPN Insider

If you're sick of high school seniors crashing the draft every year, the 2005 selection process might be for you.

After a record eight high school players went in the first round of the 2004 draft, we're all in for a small one-season break.

Scouts are saying the Class of 2005 will be the worst high school class in recent history. The class is so bad that the three best high school players in the country are two juniors and a sophomore, not seniors.

Next year Greg Oden, a 7-foot, 240 pound junior from Indianapolis and Brandan Wright, a 6-foot-10, 220 pound junior from Nashville, Tenn., both appear to be locks for the top five. The year after that, O. J. Mayo, a 6-foot-5 sophomore point guard is projected as a high lottery pick.

The NBA scouts and front-office executives that Insider consulted unanimously believe that every high school prospect this year should go to college. That's the first time I've seen that in the seven years I've been doing this column.

Publicly, scouts and GMs always say kids should go to college. But privately, they'll whisper in prospects' ears that they're interested if they do declare. This year, publicly and privately, they're telling this year's crop to go to school.

Why? Of the seniors that scouts are the most intrigued with, none of them really have the game, size or body to contribute to the NBA right now. Players like LeBron James, Amare Stoudemire and Dwight Howard all had the size, bodies and athletic ability that scouts comb the world for. This year's crop consists of undersized guards, 'tweeners or stringbeans.

The prospects are closer to Travis Outlaw or Ndudi Ebi than they are to LeBron or Amare. Could they be good down the road? Sure. Are any of them even close to being ready for to play on a NBA team? No.

That means that most of them will slip to good teams in the mid-to-late first round with no time to develop them. That's been the one recipe for disaster for the young kids coming out. Their development is stifled in ways that LeBron's and Amare's weren't. In college, they'd be playing 35 minutes a night. In the NBA, they're lucky to get off the injured list.

Unfortunately, the kids aren't listening. A number of them have all but signed up for the draft. Five years ago, a high school kid (with the exception of a few hardship cases) wanted an assurance that he'd be a high lottery pick before he declared. Three years ago, any position in the lottery would do. Now, if a team will commit to them anywhere in the first round, most teenagers seem comfortable skipping college and heading straight to the pros.

So, it's with great reluctance that we give you a quick look at five high school seniors scouts are watching this season. Take a good look at them while you can, because they're going to be on a milk carton for the next several years if they choose to declare.

Gerald Green, G/F, Gulf Shores Academy (Houston, Texas)

The facts: 6-8, 200 pounds; 29 ppg

The skinny: Green is a 6-8 swingman who has drawn comparisons to a young Tracy McGrady. He burst onto the scene this summer, winning the MVP of the ABCD camp.

He's very athletic, with a 41-inch vertical. He also possesses great range on his jump shot, can create his own shot off the dribble and is an excellent ball handler. Scouts claim

Green recalls Tracy McGrady in some ways.

he's one of the fastest players in the draft despite the fact that he's 6-8. He's averaging 29 points, 15 rebounds, seven blocks and five assists this season.

Green has weaknesses. Green needs to put more muscle on his wiry frame. Lately, he's been settling for a lot of jumpers instead of taking the ball to hole. If he has a fear of drawing contact in the paint in high school, wait until he gets to the pros. Several scouts who have followed him for the past few years also claim he's very immature and struggles in the classroom, which is partly why he's not strongly considering college at this point.

Green has the talent of a lottery pick and is probably the only high school prospect in this class with a real shot at landing there. Still, given his body and weaknesses, he'll probably be on the Dorell Wright development plan just about wherever he goes.

Martell Webster, G/F, Seattle Prep (Wash.)

The facts: 6-8, 230 pounds; 27 ppg

The skinny: The Seattle native was one of the most highly-ranked players in the country as a sophomore before an injury hampered his junior season. Webster had his coming out party over Christmas at the City of Palms Classic in Florida, where he wowed scouts with his smooth game, dead-on jumper and fantastic rebounding.

One scout called him the best shooter in high school basketball after watching him dominate in the tournament. Webster hit a number of contested 3s and long-range shots during the tournament. His constant motor and his basketball IQ also impressed scouts. The fact that he is regarded as a grounded kid also helps his chances. The only real knock on him is that he's not overly athletic – think Caron Butler with a jumper.

The Seattle prep star is committed to playing at Washington next year, but he's also flirted with going straight to the NBA. While scouts unanimously feel like he should go to college, they also believe he might be the most NBA-ready prospect in high school right now thanks to a great body and that knockout jump shot. If he makes the jump, he's a mid-to-late first rounder and the one guy that might have a shot at some playing time if he lands on the right team.

Monta Ellis, G, Lanier (Miss.)

The facts: 6-4, 210 pounds; 41 ppg

The skinny: A plethora of scouts and GMs (23 teams were represented), including the Grizzlies' Jerry West, were in Mississippi last weekend to check out a big head-to-head matchup between the best little guards in the country, Louis Williams and Ellis.

Ellis must convince the NBA he's a true point guard in order to be a first-round draft lock.

Scouts claim that Ellis won the matchup, hands down.

Ellis led his team to a huge victory against Williams' team, scoring 45 points and adding six assists. Two nights later, his team faced another top prospect, Tasmin Mitchell. Against Mitchell's team, Ellis scored 35 points, was 12 of 20 from the field, including 5 of 10 from three-point range. He also added six assists and blocked a pair of shots.

NBA scouts walked away very high on this combo guard who keeps showing signs that he can be a big point guard in the pros.

Ellis does just about everything well. He obviously is an unbelievable scorer. But he is also great passer with a polished game. Scouts say that he plays with an amazing amount of control for a high school kid. He also has the rep as a great shooter with a lightning-quick release. Ellis is not the elite athlete that Williams is, but he's athletic enough to play at the next level.

The word around the league is that Ellis already has decided to test the waters. His draft position is difficult to predict right now. It all depends on whether scouts seem him as a real point guard or a combo guard. If they decide he's a point, he's likely a mid- to late first-rounder. If they don't, he better honor his commitment to Mississippi State.

Louis Williams, SG, South Gwinnett High (Ga.)

The facts: 6-2, 165 pounds, 27 ppg

The skinny: Williams keeps claiming that NBA scouts are telling him he's a top-five pick in the draft. I haven't encountered one NBA scout who believes he's lottery material this year, let alone top five.

Williams (shooting) might face rejection in any bid for the 2005 NBA draft lottery.

A number of those NBA scouts traveled to Florida in mid-December to watch Williams play in the City of Palms Classic. On the opening night of the tournament, Williams shot just 7-21 from the field, committed six turnovers and fouled out of the game before his team suffered an upset loss in the first round. According to scouts at the scene, Williams was bickering with officials constantly and, for most of the game, played completely out of control.

He's played better since then, including an impressive 32-point performance against one of the top teams in the country, Oak Hill, last week. But even that performance wasn't without controversy, as he shot just 2-for-8 from beyond the arc.

Williams also scored 34 points last Friday against Ellis' team, but his team lost as they watched him shoot just 2-for-13 from three.

Williams has NBA talent. He's an amazing athlete, can jump out of the gym, gets to the rim whenever he wants, and his shooting touch extends all the way to the NBA three-point line. He's a volume shooter, like Allen Iverson, but Williams doesn't have the same feel for the game. He is one of the most gifted scorers in high school hoops, but scouts claim he needs to do it at Georgia (the school he committed to) for a few years first.

It's hard enough to find any good examples, with the exception of Iverson, of 6-2 and under shooting guards succeeding in the league. But when the player has the tendency to force everything, what coach is going to turn his team over to a player like that coming directly out of high school? Dajuan Wagner is the closest example, and we all know how that turned out.

If he declares, someone will take him. Last year, the collection of scouts Insider uses thought Sebastian Telfair was a late first-round pick or early second-round pick. But the folks with the Trail Blazers fell in love with him and took him in the lottery. It only takes one. Williams might take the gamble, hoping that a team like the Blazers is willing to take the risk in the lottery. But chances are he's looking at a pick in the mid-to-late 20s if he declares this year.

Andray Blatche, PF, South Kent Prep (Conn.)

The facts: 6-11, 235 pounds, 27 ppg

Blatche needs to take advantage of his size inside more often, scouts say.

The skinny: Blatche is a fifth-year senior forward who can play both the three and the four. Scouts say he's a poor man's Kevin Garnett – a finesse big man who likes to face the basket on offense but crash the boards on the defensive end. He's averaging 27 points, 16 rebounds and seven blocks on the season.

Blatche is one of the few high school players in this class with great size. However, in spite of his size, Blatche has become enamored with his perimeter game. Scouts say he spends too much time shooting three-pointers and not enough time in the paint. Once he gets to the NBA, he's going to have to hit the weight room and toughen up.

"I like Andray, but his game really needs to mature," one NBA scout told Insider. "I just wish he went inside more. I know he's trying to show us that he's versatile, but he also needs to show us that he's smart enough to take advantage of his size in the paint."

By all accounts, Blatche probably doesn't have the grades to go to college and will head straight to the NBA. Right now he's on the first-round bubble, though he might be able to improve his stock in workouts.

Best of the Rest: Shawne Williams, F, Laurinberg (N.C.); Brandon Rush, G, Mt. Zion Academy (N.C.); Tyler Hansbrough, F, Popular Bluff (Mo.); Julian Wright, F, Homewood (Ill.); Tasmin Mitchell, F, Denham Springs (La.); Josh McRoberts, F/C, Carmel High (Ind.); Richard Hendrix, F, Athens (Ala.); Keith Brumbaugh, F, Deland High (Fla.); Micah Downs, F, Juanita High (Wash.).

Draft Cards

After getting off to a slow start this season, UConn's Charlie Villanueva has been on fire lately, averaging 15.5 ppg and 13.3 rpg and 3 bpg while shooting 50 percent from the field over his last four games.

Villanueva

What caused his sudden turnaround? Head coach Jim Calhoun chastised him after a big loss at UMass.

"I said, 'I know you're supposed to be a really great player'," Calhoun said. "'To me, you don't look like a terrific player. I think you're tremendously overrated. I really mean that you're not going to play for us unless you play a particular way and you're not going anywhere. Yakima [Wash.] is not a great place for a professional career.' "

Calhoun claims Villanueva is capable of scoring 15 points and grabbing eight boards just by showing up. But the lack of effort Villanueva exhibited earlier in the season was not only killing UConn, it was hurting his draft stock. Villanueva picked up the rep as a lazy player two summers ago when he embarrassed himself at an individual workout in front of more than 100 people from the NBA.

"They said it was terribly embarrassing," Calhoun said. "From that point, there were a lot of caution signs about Charlie coming to Connecticut. … He's starting to understand that. It becomes critical that he plays hard. If he plays hard, you can see what he can do."

Insider was at the workout Calhoun was referring to, and here's a clip of what we wrote:

"Villanueva's workout was a disaster. The minute Villanueva stepped on the floor, roughly half the NBA people in the gym got up and walked out.

Villanueva actually looked much more polished than Ebi. He shot the ball well, showed nice athleticism on several drills, and, at 6-foot-11, he has some skills that are intriguing.

But two related things poisoned the well. Kevin Garnett worked at less than half speed. I'm not sure he even broke a sweat. His play, on a few occasions, bordered on lackadaisical. Midway through the workout, there were less than 50 people left in the gym.

What's the problem?

"Bad attitude," one NBA GM said.

"Terrible attitude," another NBA coach said.

An international scout was furious that he even wasted his time. "Why come to a job interview and goof around?" he said. "I don't understand it."

If Villanueva is finally getting it and can keep it up, he has the talent to be a lottery pick. However, he needs one more full season of aggressive basketball before the scouts Insider talked to will be convinced that he's changed his ways.

But can Villanueva be that patient? He never wanted to go to college and might take his first opportunity to bolt. Even with his improved play, the scouts Insider talks to aren't sure he's done enough to climb out of the late first round.

Carney can help his stock by filling the void at Memphis.

By most accounts, Memphis forward Sean Banks is now a lock to declare for the NBA draft after being ruled academically ineligible. Where Banks falls in the draft is entirely another question. Concerns that scouts had about him before are only going to be magnified by this latest screw up.

The scouts Insider surveyed all had him in the very late first round or early second. That's a pretty long fall from where he began the season. One beneficiary of Banks' stupidity should be Rodney Carney. He has been up and down all year and much of it has had to do with what Banks was doing on the floor. If he can step up and lead Memphis somewhere, anywhere, Carney will help his draft stock.

Right now scouts love Carney's athleticism, but believe he's soft and disappears too much when his team puts pressure on him to produce. If he can overcome those criticisms, Carney stands to be the big winner in this fiasco.

This draft is shaping up to be one of the best point-guard drafts ever. Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, John Gilchrist, Ronnie Brewer, Jarrett Jack and Curtis Stintson along with international prospects Roki Leni Ukic and Uros Tripkovic, are all possible first-round picks if they declare.

Here's yet another name to chew on, Temple's Mardy Collins. The 6-5 junior point guard has earned a number of fans lately after putting on dominating displays against Wake Forest (25 points, five rebounds, seven steals) and Duke (23 points, six rebounds, six steals). In the Wake game, scouts walked away saying that Collins had outplayed Paul, many people's pick for the top selection in the draft.

For the season, Collins is averaging 16.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4.8 apg and leads the NCAA with 3.8 steals per game. Unlike other "big" point guards, Collins isn't just a combo guard with a few passing skills. He can handle the ball, set up the offense, make the spectacular play and score when his team needs him. He's not the best three-point shooter of the group and has trouble defensively against small, quick point guards.

Still, scouts are already calling him a first-round draft sleeper if he chooses to come out.

Chad Ford writes a weekly NBA draft column for ESPN Insider.