Insider (Hollinger): The Answer might suprise you

[Weez]

Updated: March 23, 2005, 12:49 PM ET

The Answer might not surprise youBy John Hollinger, ESPN Insider

John Hollinger Archive

If I asked you to name the NBA's biggest ball hog, would your answer be The Answer?

It might be Chris Webber's. Webber dominated the ball with the Sacramento Kings, taking 19.9 shots per game while coordinating the offense from his perch in the high post. When he joined the Philadelphia 76ers, however, he ran into a problem: There's another guy who had the rock all the time. As a result, his numbers are down so much that Sixers fans are wondering if The Answer has been paired with The Cancer.

Webber

IversonAllen Iverson, who is entrenched as the centerpiece of the Sixers' attack, leads the league in both scoring and field-goal attempts. For good measure, he's near the top in assists, too. Between all the shots and all the drives and dishes to teammates, Iverson uses a huge chunk of the Sixers' possessions. He's taken more than a quarter of the team's field-goal tries and more than a third of its free throws, leaving few possessions available for Webber to do his thing. Not surprisingly, C-Webb's touches declined after he went to Philly. He's down to 16 field-goal attempts a game, albeit in fewer minutes, and his assists have been cut almost in half.

So we can see that Iverson appears to be having an adverse impact on Webber's shot count. But is it entirely due to Iverson's hogging the ball or are other factors to blame? To answer that, we have to turn to the numbers.

Using a stat I call Usage Rate, we can determine how many possessions a player uses per 40 minutes. Usage Rate adds a player's shot attempts, turnovers, assists and free-throw attempts on a per-minute, pace-adjusted basis.

As with my other methods, I multiply free-throw attempts by 0.44 to put them on equal footing with field-goal attempts. Also, assists are valued at one-third, since of the three acts involved in the play – getting open, making the pass and making the shot – the passer only did one. Dividing that result by the player's minutes and multiplying by 40 makes it a per-minute rating. Finally, I multiply the whole thing by the league average pace and divide by the player's team's pace, thus leveling the ground for players on fast- and slow-paced teams.

Usage Rate = (League Pace x 40 x [FTA + TO + (AST/3) + (FTA x 0.44)]) / (Team Pace x Minutes)

As one might expect, Iverson leads the league in Usage Rate. In fact, nobody else is even close. The Answer uses 34.4 possessions per 40 minutes, while the next closest player uses only 31.4.

Look further down the list and you can see Iverson's impact on Webber.

In the chart, I've separated Webber into two players: the Sacramento Webber and the Philadelphia Webber. As the chart shows, C-Webb used 30.2 possessions per 40 minutes as a King, the seventh-highest Usage Rate in the league. But as a 76er, that number shriveled to 25.4, ranking just 39th. C-Webb is seeing the ball nearly 16 percent less than he did in Sacramento.

Usage Rate Leaders 2004-05

(Min. 500 minutes)

Player Team Usage Rate

1. Iverson 76ers 34.4

2. Bryant Lakers 31.4

3. O'Neal Pacers 31.4

4. James Cavaliers 30.7

5. McGrady Rockets 30.6

6. Wade Heat 30.5

7. Webber Kings 30.2

39. Webber 76ers 25.4

Further, we can determine how much of Webber's drop in touches is attributable to Iverson. Since the Sixers' team Usage Rate is 95.5, and Iverson's is 34.4, Iverson is using 36 percent of the team's possessions when he's on the court. An average player uses only 20 percent (since there are five players on the court), which means Iverson is squeezing out an extra 16 percent for himself. If that 16 percent were split among the remaining four players, it means 4 percent would otherwise have gone to Webber. That amounts to four possessions a game, slightly below Webber's actual decline of 4.8.

So while Webber's Usage Rate dip has been slightly larger than what we might expect, it's still almost entirely due to his joining forces with Iverson. More than 80 percent of the decline in Webber's Usage Rate could have been predicted just by looking at the enormous bite Iverson takes out of all his teammates' possessions.

What's interesting is that it hasn't cut both ways. While The Answer has reduced Webber's Usage Rate, Webber has had almost no impact on Iverson's, which went from 34.6 prior to the trade to 33.3 since. For a 12-game sample, that drop is small potatoes indeed.

Perhaps this shouldn't surprise us. Whether he's been paired with Jerry Stackhouse, Keith Van Horn or even Larry Brown, nothing has deterred Iverson from his love affair with the ball.

This will be the sixth time in seven years he's had the league's highest Usage Rate (Tracy McGrady broke the streak in 2002-03), and all six have been by huge margins. Adjusted for the season's pace, Iverson's Usage Rate of 36.4 in 2001-02 is easily the highest in the past 15 years. Second place? Iverson's 34.5 of a year ago, which prior to the Webber trade he seemed set to beat this year.

The problem for Webber is that Iverson not only uses more possessions than the average player, he uses as many as anyone in history. In an environment like that, it's almost impossible for another player who likes the ball in his hands to thrive. The 76ers might be better off surrounding Iverson with players who don't use many possessions but are highly efficient when they get the chance. Kyle Korver is a good example, with a low Usage Rate (14.9) but a high True Shooting Percentage of 58.6, ranking second among small forwards.

Unfortunately, Webber is in the City of Brotherly Love now, and with his untradeable hefty contract/gimpy knee combo, he's going to be there a while. So he and Iverson have to find some brotherly love on the basketball court. Thus far, the attention has focused on Webber's adjusting to Iverson, but the evidence suggests that it's Iverson who needs to adjust better to Webber. Either that, or the Sixers have to figure out how to play with two basketballs. Using just one isn't working.

John Hollinger, author of "Pro Basketball Forecast 2004-05," is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider.