AtlHomer

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/200...tory?id=4104794 Not sure what impact this will have other than shortening their rotation. Marvin's status is still unknown for the game.

This is an example of GREAT analysis! Looking at this data, one can clearly see the team is on an upward trend. When you consider the plan was to 'blow up' the team and start over again, our 5 year plan looks right on target. Like others, I'd love to see Woody do what I think he should do. He's making progress year over year and that is what he is paid to do. I'm not sure I'd like any of the bloggers coming to my office telling my how to do my job (which I think I doing pretty well), especially if they've never done it before. I do hope Sund can get another big man for the bench by the trading deadline. Though I like him, I think we've seen the best of Solo. We need a big body that can bang in the half court game during the playoffs. Though Morris is a project, he can give a few good minutes of that, especially if he goes against his former Atlanta Celtic teammate and HS rival Dwight Howard.

So you believe he is a MAX player at 22 years old? With that kind of thinking, we'd never win a championship because we could not afford to pay any other players on the team, unless the owners wanted to pay the luxury tax every year. :blink:

Quote: As far as Philly and the Clipps go it is a given that a team has to overpay for a RFA from another team. You can't lure away a RFA by just offering a fair contract. This is a great 'reality check' statement. Yes, the Ellis contract establishes the parameters so hopefully a contract can get done shortly, along with filling out the rest of the roster.

Quote: There is still plenty of room for things to go terribly wrong obviously but if you are the Hawks, you have to LOVE the way this thing is playing out. As things stand now, Smoove would have to SERIOUSLY consider a 5yr/$48M offer starting at $8.5M a season and he would almost HAVE to take a 5 yr/$60M deal starting at $10M a season. My guess is that something eventually gets done in the 5 yr/$54M - $57M range starting at $9M - $9.5M a season with an opt out for Smoove after year 3. He COULD take the QO but there is a HUGE difference between $3.2M and $9M or so and there is no GUARANTEE that he will get a bigger offer from anyone next year. In fact, he could get a SMALLER offer next year. As for Chillz, I think he will get 5 yrs/$36M offer starting at $6M a season. I think he is a bigger risk to take the QO and become unrestricted than Smoove is though because there is not a huge difference between $6M and the $4.3M he would make if he took the QO. That said, I don't think we should offer Chillz more than $6M a season to start as that is a VERY fair wage for a top quailty 6th man. All that said, if the Hawks can get those 2 guys inked for a total of $16M or LESS next year, we will be in pretty good shape to fill out the roster and stay under the luxury tax. If we could get them for $15M or less, that would give us even more flexibility. Excellent analysis! The way things are going, it looks as though the 'business' people had a idea how things would turn out. I'm still amazed by some of the 'the sky is falling' posts made at the beginning of the month by those not wanting to be patient and letting the process play out.

Quote: As for those of you who keep repeating this stuff about Josh Smith not wanting to be here, believe the hype if you want to. All I know is that the kid’s never said anything to me, on or off the record, about not wanting to play here and not wanting to play for Woodson. And Woodson’s as adamant as anyone about Smith returning to this team, Childress, too. He made that clear to me last week when we spoke. I know the plot thickener about Smith and Woodson being at odds sounds cute on the radio and looks sexy from afar, but it’s just not true. If we trust what Sekou says, this should hopefully end all comments about Smoove not wanting to play for Woodson. Both parties should concentrate on getting a deal done sooner rather than later so we can aggressively go after other free agents.

Quote: By Dec, I'm working out a SNT for Aldridge. If Not Aldridge, I'm looking into using Smoove and Bibby to get Barbosa and Stoudamire. If not that. then Smoove and Bibby to get Okafor, Felton, and May. If not that.. Then Smoove and Bibby to get Gasol and Radman. OR Smoove and Speedy to get Gasol. The point is... if Smoove signs the QO, he must be traded by the deadline, regardless of how well he is doing with us. Otherwise, we might watch him walk for nothing. All great ideas! Putting emotions aside, Smoove is an 'asset' the Hawks have made a significant investment in. If he makes the 'business decision' to sign a QO with hopes of maximizing his options and salary next year, it is only fair that the Hawks should look to minimize their losses and get something in return.

Quote: What if it turns out he is pissed about his contract? If I were him I would be extremely pissed if the Hawks lowballed me. I just hope he is not disgruntled and causes problems if he doesn't like his contract. Who can say what is 'fair market value' for Smith? Obviously, Smith 'may' feel his value is higher than the market suggests his is. The Hawks probably want to pay what is 'fair' without overpaying. I wish I knew if contract suggestions/offers have been exchanged. While Smith should try to find out what other teams would be willing to pay, we are getting close to the time where he needs to make a decision whether he wants to play for the Hawks. If so, they can get together to negotiate a contract. He does have the option of taking the one year tender if he feels he is not being compensated fairly.

Quote: Quote: I'd personally rather see us part ways with Mario and sign a shooter like Luke Jackson and maybe another backup combo guard from the summer league rosters. I second that! Interesting concept. You would prefer someone who could possibly score over someone who could possibly stop someone from scoring. For some reason, I feel Woodson would prefer the latter over the former.

Quote: Is there a certain date that would be considered a deadline for the Hawks or any other team? How long could all this go on with JS or JC? This will go on until the players and the team come to a mutually agreeable contract. Hopefully we'll know the market value of both players as soon as the first RFA signs an offer letter. The players always have the option to take a one year tender and become an UFA next year. Unless the Hawks have 'an understanding' with several remaining unrestricted FAs, I believe it is in their best interest to resolve the contract situation sooner rather than later. Obviously the sooner they have an understanding of what the makeup of the team will be, true planning (along with marketing campaigns) can begin. Many things are on hold until the Joshes contract situations are resolved. Until then, all we fans can do is speculate as to what will happen. It will happen when it happens.....

Quote: Its not like Bogut is a stiff, the guy has talent. I see nothing wrong with the contract, I think he is worth it especially with his team. He does have a tough side to him, a little lame for my taste but it is still a nasty side. He almost averaged a double double at 23 (would have if it was per 36), that is good. His FT% needs some work but that is something where he could improve. Let's see, you think is is worth paying almost 1 million dollars per point because he is 'worth it'. What should you pay someone that averaged 18pts per game? It's amazing how some determine worth when spending OPM.....

Quote: After signing Bogat and trading for RJ maybe the Bucks will be looking to clear some long term salary. How about this deal: Hawks trade: Mike Bibby and Speedy Clank Bucks trade: Mo Wiliiams Charlie V and Dan Gadzurick Mo is a decent point who shoots a much higher % than Bibby from the field and slightly better from 3. Charlie V can provide some depth and may make Chills or Marv availible for a trade for a center. Gadzurick is a veteran big who will at least play a little unlike Clankston. Let's see, two points guards over 30 and under 6'1" for a point guard and two bigs. They'd have to be desperate or loco to do a deal like that.....

Quote: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writ...tml?eref=si_nba Quote: 3. Atlanta Hawks -- With Philadelphia out of the running for Smith, the Hawks must wait to see if he receives a big offer from the Clippers; if not, then they can offer Smith -- without competition -- a reasonable, less-than-max contract with an opt-out, so that if he feels slighted by this contract, then at least he'll be able to re-enter the market in a few years. By signing Smith at a reasonable number and retaining fellow restricted free agent Josh Childress (who has commanded a lot of interest from teams in the range of the mid-level exception), the Hawks might have enough leftover money to add another role player via free agency. Which would position them to make the playoffs for a second straight year. Good analysis from SI. They did forget the other possibility though. Smith may decide the 'reasonable' offer from the Hawks is not one and elects to take a one year contract, making him an UFA next year. Let's hope it does not come down to that. Once the Clipper speculation blows over (I believe it will soon), the Hawks can then focus on signing a veteran shooter (Jarvis Hayes?) and big man (Kwame Brown?) to fill out the roster. A second team of Law/Childress/Hayes/Zaza/Brown can be fairly competitive.

Quote: I absolutely agree 5 years and 80 million is too much for Smith. If he gets an offer for that amount then we have to start looking at SnT options. What really worries me is that if Golden State loses out on Brand and they have already lost Baron they might feel inclined to make an overpriced offer to Smith just so they will have someone to come out of this offseason with. This is when it gets interesting! Hopefully more folks are recognizing the Hawks must take a long term look to the makeup of their team. It's fair to say they have a 'number' that they are willing to match any team up to for Smith. Once agreements/proposals go above that number, the reasonable thing to do is try to determine how to get value back via a SNT. If it comes to that point, it will simply be a 'business decision' that is in the best interest of the team. Sure, they would take a 'PR' hit but at the end of the day, they've got to think about the long term fiscal health of the organization.

Quote: How about he and Law play well enough that Sund feels comfortable trading Bibby? I don't think Speedy can do anything in the summer league that would warrant a team taking him in a trade, he'll need to stay healthy for at least the first half of the season for that. But if he and Law give the team 48 minutes of solid floor leadership, then maybe we can do something sooner than later with Bibby's expiring deal. Get Mike Wilks as your 3rd PG and hope for the best. (Especially since Law seems to be rehabbing that wrist to hopefully limit future injury to it). Interesting idea! Mike Wilks is the kind of 'distributing' PG that would be good to have as a backup, assuming he is out there with scorers. If Speedy is healthy, it does give the Hawks greater flexibility with player moves.

Quote: This is the time that the accountants tally the revenues from last year to determine the slotted salaries, like the value of max and MLE contracts. They have to get all of the pennies counted from The Finals and it takes some time to triple check those figures and I'm sure that the NBA Players Assoc. has to sign off on the results. Think of it this way, the time between the Super Bowl and the draft is like 3 months. At least the NBA goes like a week from the draft, to a week to start charming free agents, about another week to get players signed and then they start with the summer league games. No more than about 10 days between any of those steps. Everyone seems to forget at the end of the day, this is a business. As indicated above, it takes time to validate revenues and set salaries. I recall not long ago, the draft lasted quite a few rounds (thus obligating players to a team they had no realistic chance of making) and there it was about three weeks before contracts could be offered during the FA period.

Quote: Quote: Quote: I see 4 things that will happen. The Hawks will resign Childress. The Hawks will move Marvin/Speedy for Gerald Wallace. The Hawks will sign a couple of Centers: Morris/Brown. We would probably line up with: Bibs/JJ/Wallace/Horf/Brown. to start. Honestly, we probably would not be so bad. Our PPG will go way down... but defensively we'd be better with Brown and Wallace. Wallace does know how to defend man to man. Offensively however, we will struggle some. JJ and Bibs have no problems shooting, but we would get very little scoring from the frontcourt. UNLESS Wallace is allowed to take people off the dribble and learns to kick out. I'd substitute point #2 with signing Jarvis Hayes and/or Mickeal P. from GS. This would give the team a stronger 2nd unit. It could look like this: Law/Childress/Hayes/Morris/Zaza with 2 out of Speedy/Richardson/Jones as 11 & 12. If we lose smith, we're going to have to make up that transition defense. The other thing is the only way we can get players is by trade.. we don't have capspace to go after free agents. Not really. Not until Chillz is signed and we can use our MLE. I would rather use that on Brown after getting that transition defender by trade. I think Mickeal P. would be a good pickup in a SNT but we'd have to see his price. Good point! In my scenario, Brown would help improve interior defense which 'could' result in a lower shooting percentage for opponents (less layups and putbacks). Brown with Hayes or Mickeal P. could easier surpass the offense output provided by Smith with along strengthening the 2nd unit. If we can reduce JJ's minutes without losing offensive output, it makes him fresher for the end of the season.

Quote: I see 4 things that will happen. The Hawks will resign Childress. The Hawks will move Marvin/Speedy for Gerald Wallace. The Hawks will sign a couple of Centers: Morris/Brown. We would probably line up with: Bibs/JJ/Wallace/Horf/Brown. to start. Honestly, we probably would not be so bad. Our PPG will go way down... but defensively we'd be better with Brown and Wallace. Wallace does know how to defend man to man. Offensively however, we will struggle some. JJ and Bibs have no problems shooting, but we would get very little scoring from the frontcourt. UNLESS Wallace is allowed to take people off the dribble and learns to kick out. I'd substitute point #2 with signing Jarvis Hayes and/or Mickeal P. from GS. This would give the team a stronger 2nd unit. It could look like this: Law/Childress/Hayes/Morris/Zaza with 2 out of Speedy/Richardson/Jones as 11 & 12.

From ESPN's website: The unpredictable three-time All-Star point guard, in vintage Agent Zero fashion, told the Post and the Washington Times on Thursday that he has agreed to re-sign for $111 million over six years, considerably less than the maximum deal he said the Wizards offered him when the free agency period began on Tuesday. Arenas negotiated the deal from China, where is traveling as part of promotional tour for a shoe company, and did so without an agent. "I'm basically giving back $16 million," Arenas told the Washington Times. "This is in line with what I've been saying the whole time. You see players take max deals and they financially bind their teams. I don't wanna be one of those players and three years down the road your team is strapped and can't do anything about it." Arenas became a free agent after opting out of the final year of his six-year, $65 million contract at the end of last season. He initially said he was opting out to receive a max contract, but he later indicated he would be flexible in negotiations." At the end of the day, it is a 'business decision" that must be made. I hope all parties come to the conclusion that it is best to continue this relationship and find a 'fair and equitable' salary for both Joshes.

Quote: The real worry is G.S. The most the Clippers could offer Brand is 5 years70 mill SO that would also be the most they could offer Smoove. Thats about 3 mill morer than what Philly can offer. G.S. on the other hand could offer Smoove THE MAX. I think the most Smoove could get from another team is 5 years 85 mill and the Warriors can offer him that much because they just offered 90 mill to Brand. Just hope Brand takes the Warriors offer because if not they will come knocking for Josh. Let's say GS or any other team offers Smith a contract upwards of 5yr/85mil. At one point should ASG look to turn that into a SNT situation. Like many, I'd like to see us retain Smith and would also like to see him get 'paid' but there comes a point in which you must acknowledge that the good of the team is greater than that on one player. What salary offer would you draw the 'line in the sand' or are most willing to 'break the bank' and perhaps handcuff the team for a long time by giving him a max offer? At 22, is he worth a max offer at this time?

I'm a longtime lurker and an infrequent poster. Keep posting the insider info. We can decide for ourselves the validity of it. I personally like the speculation that comes along with it....

Sothron, as usual GREAT information and insight! I wouldn't be surprised if some of the national basketball prognosticators extract tidbits from your posts and begin reporting on them as their own findings. As I mentioned before, it sounds like your sources are fans and understand the need to have a 'buzz' about the team. Your posts have definitely done that. Thank and protect them.

Outside of the insider posts that generated a LOT of comments this is one of the better posts. It lists actually salaries of veteran players and forces bloggers to consider what the Hawks would have to 'send back' with salaries to acquire those players. As indicated, to acquire some players, it would require a 3rd and/or 4th team to be involved. I don't think we can get someone like KG, Kobe, JP, etc. While it may be fun to speculate, it's highly unlikely. My preference is to se us package the #3 pick with reasonable assets to acquire a big man like Gasol. In order to get something of quality, you've got to give something of quality. The only untouchables I waould have in this potential acquisition would be JJ, JSmoove, and Marvin. If we are unable to swing a deal for a veteran with this pick, I could go for Yi or Horford. Yi is risky but one can't ignore the economic impact he would have for the franchise. Him turning out to be as advertise would be icing on the cake. Horford seems solid however I'm not personally sold on him. I'll fall back to actual player evaluations regarding this pick. I also like the idea of possibly trading #11/assets to Portland for JJackand Pryz, if that is a possibility. When healthy, Pryz was a good defensive center that clogged the middle, got rebounds, and was a good trigger for fastbreaks. Because most of us are unsure as to why the team did not make a committment to him a few years ago, this may make this iffy. If we keep the #11 pick, we definitely should take the best PG remaining. If we have choices , my preference would be Law over Critt, only beause he is closer to being NBA ready. Per Bernie, Speedy should be healthy going into the season so Law could play in spots to get experience without having much pressure. Some might say this is a better situation for Critt however we may need Law to start sooner based on Speedy's health. I would not feel comfortable with Critt doing that this year. I can't wait until Thursday night!

Sothron, I for one appreciate the insider info you have been sharing. I'm sure your contacts are big fans and read many of the blogs. They probably also know these tidbits would not come from BK. Keeping a buzz is also good marketing. Your posts have definitely generated that. Protect your sources! That said, BK may be also throwing off the FO staff with his thoughts. IMO, drafting Wright is contrary to the organizations goals of having a playoff team next season. Maybe he is factoring in the possibility of leaks thus sending up smoke signals. I'm in the camp that believes at least one veteran player needs to be acquired using one of the picks. I recall a rumour earlier of #11/asset for Jack/Prz from Portland. If something like that were true, we could possibly take a chance of BPA with #3. Ideally, I'd like to see us use #3 on Gasol as long as it did not gut the team to much. I believe he would be a force for us in the east.

The only other way to address the center position would be through free agency. It seems the opinion of the board is that Magloire is not worth pursuing. I wouldn't mind seeing him here at the right price. He would definitely be an upgrade over LoWright. The only other 'low cost' option would probably be Haywood from DC. Hopefully the SWilliams for Haywood trade rumour has some truth to it. The change of scenery/environment could do both players some good and possibly help out their new teams.