Help me out with this supposition, any disagreements/corrections are welcome and appreciated…
Among Hawk veterans, there are no player options, no team options, no restricted free agents, and just a probable reserve point guard as a quality unrestricted free agent in 2012. The other teams have, at best, a quality starting player under a team option, or as a restricted free agent seeking an extension or a contract well above the qualifying offer.
My questions are: Is the supposition correctly stated? In your opinion, if true, is this a good thing?
On the second question, I believe it is, as a competitive advantage. Going into free agency, while ham-strung for cash to pay for new players, Atlanta’s absolute worst-case scenarios would involve starting either Marvin or Zaza on a regular basis, assuming the Hawks don’t get fortuitous in the 2012 Draft. Draftees or free agents acquired (so long as it's not Maurice Evans or Josh Powell version 2.0) to fill out the roster can only help to push Marvin or Zaza for those starting spots.
Some players’ and their “devil-you-know” contracts may also serve as commodities when other GMs start fishing for alternatives to free agents with wildly expensive propositions. The Hawks can shore up on what they have, rather than risk breaking the bank, like other teams might, for critical components. I know this is dangerously close to the tedious “I like our core” mantra we hear from on-high, but I do sense that our “floor” going into 2012 would be higher than most, if not all, other NBA clubs. Assuming everyone stays reasonably healthy, in-shape, and out of trouble, of course.
Other teams coming closest to satisfying the above theorem:
((Playoff teams))
Miami – Mario Chalmers (Restricted FA 2011) will likely stay with the Big 3, barring a gi-normous contract offer. But can we assume Joel Anthony would be starting 80-plus games, or will Miami prefer to look elsewhere for a starter? The HEAT have no possible starters with contracts expiring after June 2012.
Oklahoma City – Contract decisions will loom for Russell Westbrook (Restricted Free Agent 2012) as well as James Harden and Serge Ibaka (Team Options 2012). Barring any widening rift between Westbrook and center Kendrick Perkins (under contract through 2015), every starter should be back in time for 2012-13.
Memphis – Marc Gasol (Restricted FA 2011) will have to have an offer sheet matched if the Grizzlies do not want to spend their time competing for other starting-caliber centers. Mike Conley, Tony Allen, Rudy Gay, and Zach Randolph are all locked down through 2013.
Lakers – Andrew Bynum (Team Option 2012) will have to be picked up unless the Lakers prefer to go searching for a new starting center prospect. Having starters at every other position assumes Steve Blake, World Peace, and Pau Gasol will all still be around alongside Kobe by Tipoff 2012. Each will be 32 years of age or older by then.
San Antonio – Even if Tim Duncan (Unrestricted Free Agent 2012) and Antonio McDyess (Unrestricted Free Agent 2011) retire before Tipoff 2012, Matt Bonner and Tiago Splitter could try to hold the fort alongside Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Richard Jefferson. The latter may have to compete for starter’s minutes with rookie Kawhi Leonard.
((Non-playoff teams))
Golden State – Stephen Curry (Team Option 2012) has already been picked up, and have their potential starters also under contract through 2012-13 (Monta Ellis, Dorrell Wright, David Lee, Andris Biedrins). One senses a shakeup coming, though, with new coach Mark Jackson on board.
Toronto – DeMar DeRozan (Team Option 2012) will rejoin Andrea Bargnani, Jose Calderon, and Amir Johnson as likely starters. Yet, on this perennial lottery team, are Calderon and Linas Kleiza likely to start at their positions? Calderon neither began nor ended last season as the Raptors’ starter at the point. If not, they’ll have decisions to reach on Jerryd Bayless (Restricted Free Agent 2012) and James Johnson (Team Option 2012).
Minnesota – Michael Beasley and Kevin Love (Restricted Free Agents 2012), and Wesley Johnson (Team Option 2012) would give the Wolves continuity if they all are re-signed. Chances are good the Wolves may let Beasley walk (or better yet, trade him beforehand, if possible) to move rookie Derrick Williams up the depth chart.
Utah – Without C.J. Miles (Unrestricted Free Agent 2012), the Jazz would look to either Raja Bell or rookie Alec Burks to fill the gap at shooting guard. Devin Harris, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson, and rookie Enes Kanter are under contract.
Sacramento – Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins (Team Options 2012) probably aren’t going anywhere. Jason Thompson (Restricted Free Agent 2012) has the inside track at starting center, but the Kings may let him walk in search of a better option.
Houston – Has a probable/possible starter for every spot, but two of them are likely rookies (Marcus Morris, Donatas Motiejunas).
~lw3