niremetal

I agree with you. But I also agree with @sturt that it sounded to me like Schlenk had already made up his mind that Dunn isn't the answer. And Kirschner saying "don't be surprised if Dunn is moved by {checks watch} today" probably confirms that. Schlenk also wouldn't have made that sort of decision without consulting his new head coach, so it probably means that means that McMillan doesn't think he's the answer either. No matter how much I wish we could see what Dunn can give us when he's fully healthy, it seems pretty certain that he's just not in the Hawks' plans for this year.

Hm. Looking through the possibilities. We'd either have to trade him to (1) a team with cap room; (2) a team with a trade exception; (3) a team that would actually want him more than a comparably-paid player who we would want more than Dunn; or (4) as part of a bigger package. I don't think (4) is happening before draft day. I'm in the camp that thinks a consolidation trade is more likely to happen near the trade deadline, after we've had a chance to see Hunter's health and Cam's development a bit more. I don't think (3) applies--our biggest need is backup PG. If there were a better PG out there who made about the same as Dunn, why would the other team want to give him up for Dunn, unless the teams have dramatically different assessment of the players' respective value? For (2)...if I'm not mistaken, the only team with a trade exception big enough to absorb Dunn is the Thunder. Dunn would actually make a lot of sense there...the Thunder don't actually have a true PG on the roster right now, and I think Dunn would pair nicely as a backup and occasional mate to SGA. For (1), there are several teams projected to have cap room that might make sense as destinations for Dunn. I'd rank them: OKC (see above) Toronto (takes the pressure off them to bring back Lowry) Dallas (he'd be an intriguing-but-risky fit with Luka) San Antonio (Dunn seems like a player Pop would do well with, but he might prefer to stick with Patty Mills as Murray's vet backup) Charlotte (similar to Dallas, he'd be an interesting pair with LaMelo, but they might prefer to bring back Graham) Miami (defense is not their area of need) Memphis (they're set at PG) New York (they make sense on paper, but Thibs ruined Dunn's rookie year) I should give the disclaimer that I always suck at predicting how roster moves will shake out, tho.

Both sides would say no to that deal, I think. Just as important from our perspective, the fact that Hunter ended up needing two surgeries on the same knee is worrisome. Until he can stay healthy and play a full season at the level he did in the first month of last season, I don't think we can count on him being a cornerstone. That makes seeing if Cam is ready to take the next step all the more important, because long wings who can stretch the floor and defend 4 positions don't come along every day.

First, thanks for the shout-out! Second, I'm pretty sure the Wizards thought Beal and Westbrook would figure it out too. But their offense ended up being wildly inconsistent (ended the year #17 in offensive efficiency). And impressionistically, Westbrook's size, rebounding ability, and years of experience being the #2 option should have made him easier to fit with Beal than Trae would be. I think they'd be a terrible fit, and would utterly destroy the chemistry that made the current team click. And that's just on the offensive end...

There are only 5 players who have finished in the bottom 15 in Defensive Box Plus/Minus in each of the past 2 years: Trae, Collin Sexton, Bryn Forbes, Darius Garland, and Beal. We would join Cleveland in having a historically bad defensive backcourt if we were to start him alongside Trae. Oh, and did I mention that his usage rate on offense (34.1%) was higher than Trae or his team's own ball-dominant point guard (Westbrook), which is the only reason he scores so much? I am not exaggerating one iota when I say that there literally is no shooting guard in the league who would make less sense to bring on than Beal. And we'd have to spend 1/3 of our salary cap for the privilege. For me, the fact that he might be gone after a year (meaning we could use his salary as an expiring contract to trade for a more sensible player) would the best part of any deal.

No. There is literally no deal that would make sense to bring an undersized, defense-free, scoring-is-his-only-skill-but-he's-mediocre-from-deep-so-he-needs-the-ball-and-time-on-the-clock-to-be-effective 2-guard who makes $35 million a year to be Trae's backcourt partner. Giving up Bogi (who actually *does* make sense as Trae's backcourt partner) and Cam (our best perimeter defender, whose loss would compound the absolutely horrendous defense we'd be left with after that trade) makes that deal an absolute turdburger with earwax-flavored cheese. Bogi actually was a more effective player overall last year than Beal (.142 WS/48 vs. .132 for Beal, better BPM, better ORtg, better DRtg, better TS%...I could go on), even with Bogi's LP-era struggles. Fortunately, there is a -1000% chance that Schlenk would do it.

Possible, but strikes me as unlikely. The draft just doesn't feel like a pivot point for trading him. Right now, K'Von is producing and projecting at a level you would hope/expect from a guy drafted in the mid-to-late lottery (#7-12 overall). He doesn't seem to have star-level upside, which dings his value a bit down from that, I think, but he has a solid floor. But if he was going to be traded for a draft pick (whether alone or as part of a package), I think we would only expect him to be moved if we were getting a late lottery pick in return where Travis could take someone he was high on. But there are no teams in that range of this draft who seem like they'd be a good fit for him (he's not a guy that a rebuilding team will want since his contract goes up next year), and also I don't think there are any players expected to go in that range who the Hawks have worked out. My guess is we make Huerter an offer a little bit less than what we are paying Bogi, Huerter will turn it down, and we'll move him at the deadline unless it looks like we're gearing up for a serious title run in the playoffs.

Great point--it doesn't have to be Bogi exclusively, but a Bogi/Huerter two-headed monster. I just don't see realistic choices at backup PG that could take on the bulk of that role better than they could, especially if we have Dunn and Mays around situationally.

I mean, that's not just an extreme case, because I'm not suggesting that we run with Bogi as our main PG. I'm suggesting using him as our primary initiator during times when Trae's off the floor--i.e., with the second unit. Ordinarily, our second unit will not be on the court much (if at all) with the opposing team's first unit. So you're not gonna have Holiday on the court much (if at all) during the times when Bogi would be initiating. Same with any other elite perimeter defender. I still think folks are kind of overestimating the capabilities of what we can get from a backup PG that we can sign for the MLE. You're not going to get someone that Holiday can't shut down. You're not going to get someone who is a complete, reliable PG at all. Because those guys are rare enough that they aren't going to take a 10-12 minute per game role with the Hawks, when teams like the Lakers, Clippers, etc, can offer them either a starting role or a featured reserve role. Also, if we use the full MLE on a single backup PG, that leaves us with just the minimum and maybe the BAE (assuming we don't use any cap space) to find a backup C--and if we spend less than the full MLE, we'll be able to get even less. So sure, sign the best PG we can given our need to shore up our big man rotation. I still don't think that'll be someone who actually could be a better playmaker for the second unit than Bogi

It looks like there weren't any 5-man rotations last year that played more than 26 minutes where Bogi was on the floor without one of the three guys whose primary position was PG (Trae, Lou, Goody). So I don't think it was ever really tried, Rondo's injuries notwithstanding.

I'm relatively new in my Hawksquawk comeback tour, so apologies if this is a topic that's been raised before. But it seems to me that the Hawks have a pretty obvious choice at backup PG on the roster already: Bogdan Bogdanovic. Nate figured out PDQ after the Hawks dropped game 2 against the Knicks that Bogi was our second-best playmaker, even with Lou on the floor too. From that point on (or at least until the games Trae missed vs MIL), I think he was nearly always on the floor when Trae was not. He's not lightning-quick as a PG, but some of the best PGs in history (like Nash) had subpar foot speed--and they could especially get away with it if they were bigger than the average PG (e.g., Magic, proto-point-forward Rick Barry, etc). That's not even counting the increasing number of big men who have become the primary distributors in their team offenses in recent years. The important thing is the ability to dribble, pass, and shoot, all of which Bogi can do very, very well. This is the best take I've seen that describes Bogi's playmaking ability: https://premiumhoops.org/2021/06/06/bogdan-bogdanovics-two-way-mastery-in-the-atlanta-hawks-first-round-series/ Even if his efficiency as a playmaker drops a bit as volume goes up, do we really think that there is someone who'll be available in the draft or in free agency that will be able to improve on what Bogi could do in that role? It also strikes me that having a lineup like Bogi-Huerter-Cam-Gallo-Okongwu* on the floor when Trae rests would opposing second units matchup nightmares that would more than outweigh whatever small edge we might get from having a traditional/quicker PG that we could get using the MLE or at #20 in the draft. Defensively, Cam can stay in front of the opposing PG. Heck, so can Huerter in most games. We can have an "alternate" backup PG (Mays, maybe?) who can slot in when the opposing second-unit backcourt has two exceptionally quick players. (* ...or whoever we sign to serve as backup C in his place for the first 50ish games of the year while Okongwu rehabs) Having 2-guards double as the backup PG has worked well before. The two that come to mind immediately for me are JJ, who was very effective as backup PG for Nash back in '04-'05, and CJ McCollum, who has effectively been Lillard's backup in Portland for most of the past 5+ years. The main argument that I can think of against this would be simply familiarity and rhythm. Bogi has never been asked to serve as the de facto point guard for an NBA team, and he has thrived (as in, been one of the most efficient players in the whole league) in his role as a wing alongside Trae. But given how much we've struggled to find a backup for Trae, I think at least a test run of having Bogi play the point for the second unit is worth a try. Thoughts?

Aaahhh I see that now. I was gonna be giving everyone around here side-eye Thanks!

I'm seriously in disbelief that so far, fewer than 20% of people have Dame in even the Top 15.

That was my first instinct too. But ultimately, I don't think the Hawks can make a 9-figure / 4-5 year decision based on 30 games of availability for a backup big. Especially because right now, O is really Clint's backup, not John's. And it's gonna be that way until O can stretch the floor (which I believe is coming, but not this next season). Like Supes said...free agency it is. Unless Knight absolutely busts out defensively in Summer League and earns a regular season audition. I'd like to think there's a fair chance of that because Knight has to realize this is maybe his best chance to land even a temporary rotation role on a NBA team. But that's probably wishful thinking. Dedmon seems like a good vet min flyer, although NGL, I'm not up on who else might be a good fit in that regard.

JC's skill set is too redundant of KAT's to justify having both. If we do this deal, there needs to be a corresponding S&T of JC where we at least get a poor man's Hunter back--someone who can score and defend both forward positions. Since that's not happening...no thanks. Agreed. People underrate Gallo's impact. He's had 3 straight years with a >61% TS%. The fact that he's a 6'10 dude who is an efficient scorer out to 30+ feet is extremely valuable in clutch situations and the playoffs, as he proved several times this past season.

I moved out to the Portland area about 7 years ago and, once Tim Duncan hung up his sneakers, the Blazers became my adopted #2 team. It's kind of crazy being in a position for the first time since I've been here (yes, including 2014-15) that the Hawks are clearly closer to a title than my new hometown team is. I don't think people get just how freaking good Damian Lillard is. Everyone *thinks* they know. But you really have to watch him night-in and night-out to get the full picture. I would argue that he is *the* best guard in the NBA, and has been for at least 6-7 years. I think he's one of the 5 best players in the league, along with Giannis, LeBron, Kawhi, and Curry (due respect to Jokic). And I genuinely think he's a better player than Curry--which is in no way a knock on Curry, who I think is himself a generational talent. But put Dame on the Warriors instead of Curry, and I think the Warriors would have won 5 straight titles starting in 2015, and contended even over the past 2 years. Unfortunately, the Blazers blew the best years of Dame's career by failing to surround him with a modicum of talent, at least after Aldridge left (which Dame and Aldridge both now realize was a mistake). It was very clear that McCollum and Nurkic were nowhere near enough as secondary pieces for the Blazers to contend, but the team refused to make moves while they still had assets to do so. Now things are about to go very south for the Blazers very quickly. Dame wants to win now, and the Blazers just don't have the assets needed to retool and put the supporting cast around him needed to contend. They have no cap space. They traded two firsts to get Robert Covington (a good player, but not worth two firsts). Their only viable trade assets are Nurkic, Anfernee Simons, and maybe CJ McCollum ("maybe" because he has 3 years and over $90M left on his contract). None of those guys are going to bring back a truly elite star talent. Their best hope is that the Sixers will bite on a trade centered on McCollum for Simmons. If the Blazers could pull that off without having to sacrifice Simons, there's at least a modicum of a chance that improvement from Simmons and growth by Simons will vault the team up to title contention. I doubt the Sixers would be seriously interested in that trade, but I can't see any *more* likely trades that the Blazers could pull off. Which probably means they are screwed. It sucks to see the Blazers squander the prime of the best player to ever put on a Rip City jersey. But I think we might see a Blazers firesale sooner than people realize. (If so, I think the Hawks should take a look at trying to nab Nurkic)

Can Yup. Needs to be a guy whose USG% isn't sky-high if we want them to play alongside Trae. That really leaves Jokic, Davis, and maybe Durant. Of those, Jokic is the one whose game best complements the other pieces we could conceivably keep around along with Trae.

I straight-out said it's probably not an issue. But it's far from unheard of. I'll stop there.

As I understand it, since the projected cap next year is $112M, it's closer to $4-5M after accounting for Collins' cap hold ($12.4M) and the incomplete roster holds ($1.85M), right? And even then, we'd have to renounce our Bird rights and cap holds on literally everyone else--Lou, Mays, and Knight, most notably--to have access to that meager cap space. Even Snell's Bird rights might be useful if another team that's over the cap is interested in him. I think the amount we can spend on the MLE is also lower if we choose to rely on cap space (although I admit I'm fuzzy on that point). All in all, I don't think we can't get anyone much better than what we'd be renouncing with that money.

Agree that Ayo seems like a good fit in terms of "could potentially help right away." But do a Google search of "Nigerian Civil War" and you'll see why I at least would want to be sure Schlenk talks to both Onyeka (whose family is Igbo) and Ayo (whose family is Yoruba) and get their thoughts before making that pick. It's not unlike bringing in both an Ulster Scot and an Irishman or players from the former Yugoslav countries...they're probably cool with playing with each other, but you wanna make sure...

*JASON Collins, obviously

I think it goes: 2020-21 2014-15 1987-88 2010-11 This year is the only year in memory where I genuinely thought the Hawks had a chance to win it all. I could easily see arguments about how to rank 2-4, because none of those teams had a realistic path to the 'chip. In '88, we didn't make the ECF, but came damned close (twice) against an all-time great team. I don't see a scenario where the '15 team beats the Cavs, but I could see a scenario where the '88 Hawks beat the Bad Boys Pistons. Not the Lakers, though. The 2011 team was the best from the JJ era. The team basically took the regular season off, but then upset the Magic in the 1st round (when John Collins exposed that Dwight could not, in fact, take over games offensively). Then took a game off Chicago at home in the Semis, but squandered home court in game 3. Had we gotten past the Bulls, I actually feel we matched up better defensively with the Heat superteam better than people realize. Almost certainly not enough to get past them (we had no one other than JJ and Jamal capable of creating their own shot), but I think the series could have been interesting.

Great watch. Same video also shows Bogi's physicality and active hands on defense, which was really Dunn-esque in the playoffs. Both he and Collins are underrated defenders. Personally, I'm coming around to the notion that we pay Collins what it takes to keep him here and move Capela next summer (assuming Okongwu continues to develop defensively the way he did late this season), when 75% of Gallo's salary will also be coming off the books. Between JC's defensive improvements, his certified ability to stretch the floor, and the intangibles that Chris Kirschner went on about in his writeup, I think the risk in letting him walk--or, frankly, doing any realistic sign-and-trade--outweighs the risk of overpaying him. Even if he never learns how to dribble.

But how is Rose (or McConnell for that matter) going to get minutes in the playoffs unless Trae gets hurt--in which case the odds of a deep playoff run are essentially nil anyway? I just don't see Rose being interested yet in a role where he has no realistic prospect of being on the floor in important moments. Disagree on McConnell. He simply doesn't have the production (read: scoring ability) necessary to be a starting PG in the modern game, at least not a team that's going to win more than 25 games. He strikes me as being in the same mold as guys like Brevin Knight--solid backup who will give you good minutes off the bench and spot starts, but you're in trouble if you're leaning on him to play major minutes. I think he'd be perfect for a role here as a backup and spot starter, and I don't think he'd get a much better deal elsewhere. The other thing to bear in mind is that if Dunn exercises his option, we'll already have one backup PG who can't score. Strikes me that is Coach Nate plans to keep Dunn around, bringing back Lou or finding someone in his mold would be a better fit than a guy like McConnell, just so we have a couple change-of-pace options behind Trae. The closest fit among those options would then be Mills, but his scoring ability has diminished with his foot speed.

I don't know why people keep putting D-Rose as a potential backup PG. He can't play the 2 (certainly not well enough to take those minutes from Bogi/Huerter/Reddish), so his role would be strictly that of a backup behind a guy who's gonna play 35 minutes a night and be on the court for all the most important minutes. Why would we think he'd be interested in coming here and playing 12 minutes a game when there are plenty of playoff teams (Boston, Dallas, LAC, etc) that could offer him a much more featured role?