REHawksFan

Ok so I'm a numbers guy and I'm intrigued by the idea that the improvement in team Rebounding by adding D8 (and losing AH) will ultimately increase Atl possessions and decrease opponent possessions and will therefore lead to increased point differentials for the Hawks which would presumably lead to more wins. That's my premise anyway. Just last year D8 avg 1.6 offensive Reb more than AH (3.4 / game to 1.8/game) and 2.9 defensive Reb more (8.4/game to 5.5/game) so that's a net of 4.5 more Hawk Reb per game. Now if all of those came from the other team (as opposed to stealing some Reb from teammates) then theoretically the number of Atlanta Poss would increase by 4.5 while the number of opponent Poss would decrease by the same. But let's assume that half of D8's incremental increase in Reb over AH comes from a reduction in other Hawks rebounding (like Paul or Kyle or Baze) then that puts the overall increase for Hawks Rebounding per game at 2.25 and the decrease in opponents Rebounding at 2.25. So theoretically this will increase the Hawks possessions by the same and decrease the opponents possessions. Coincidentally, an increase of 2.25 Hawks rebounds per game with a corresponding decrease in Opponent rebounds would put the Hawks at a 50% RebRate which would rank about 14th in the NBA this past season. Now, assuming the Hawks offensive and defensive efficiency ratings stay the same, their Avg Pts Scored and Pts Allowed should both improve as follows: On offense: Hawks Pts Per Possession = 1.03 Hawks Possessions = 99.4 / game , increased to 101.7 with D8 (99.4 + 2.25) Hawks pts scored increases from 102.8/ game to 104.8/ game (101.7 poss X 1.03 pts / poss) On defense: Hawks Pts per Possession = 0.988 Hawks pts / game allowed = 99.2 so Hawks opponents possessions = 100.4 With D8, Hawks opponents possessions reduced to 98.2 per game (100.4 - 2.25) Hawks points allowed reduced from 99.2 / game to 97.0 (98.2 poss X 0.988 pts / poss) SO......if these numbers held, the overall point differential would increase from +3.6 / game (102.8 scored vs 99.2 allowed) to +7.8 / game (104.8 scored vs 97.0 allowed). I'm guessing that would yield more than 48 wins. Of course, the real question remains, will the Offensive and Defensive efficiency ratings stay the same with D8 instead of AH? The answer is probably not. In know D8's PPS this past year was not very good (or so I've read on one blog or another) , but it would seem like the offensive rating COULD improve a little with D8 taking more shots at the rim vs AH taking lower % shots this past year. And the defensive rating could certainly improve a little with D8's superior shot blocking and altering ability. Thoughts? I think I'm looking at this correctly but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong regarding the premise of increased team Rebounding leading to Increased Possessions. EDIT: I just looked it up and D8 was actually 2nd among qualified C with a 1.63 PPS so that's really good. The problem in Hou is he only attempted 8.5 shots / game. AH attembed 12.8 in Atl with only a 1.19 PPS.

I like the way you think but the reality is there is a major issue with your analysis. I won't quibble over the ranking of individual players as I think you mostly got it right (although I'm not sure how on earth you put Love over Green or Milsap). Anyway, the major flaw is using a 5>3>1 ranking system when it should be fairly obvious that those rankings won't hold up. I mean, yes, LeBron > Durant > Korver but the weighting would be more like 100 > 90 > 55. There's the grand canyon in between some of the Cavs and Warriors vs the Hawks players. The same can be said for PG and SG (Kyrie and Steph are way ahead of Dennis and Klay is way ahead of both Baze and Sumpert). So it doesn't necessarily translate into any reasonable quantitative ranking.

If Howard starts at 1 I'll definitely think Bud's lost his marbles... In all seriousness, this is the lineup that I've favored for a bit now. It allows KK to come off the bench in the sniper role with Thabo playing his excellent defense. Add in Hump and I guess Splitter and Jack/Delaney and it's a good second unit. I'm still not sure what to do with THJ.

That's true, and it's a moot point now anyway. BUT....I will point out that Alice had a DRPM of 2.08 while Sullinger was 2.48 last season so it's not like Sullinger was a huge liability. And again, I was talking about Sullinger being a backup so it limits the exposure to his deficiencies. EDIT: I had the numbers wrong. Sullinger actually has a better Defensive RPM compared to Alice.

It's interesting to me that even in bad shape Sullinger put up numbers that compare favorably to Alice. SEASON P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% AST TO USG REB PER Sullinger '15-'16 17.4 14.1 3.9 47.6 16 8.7 21.1 18.7 16.78 Alice '15-'16 19 9.1 4 56.5 17.8 7.3 19.5 12.4 19.46 Alice is the better player, but if the Hawks had Sullinger in a backup role, he'd play less minutes so the out of shape problem wouldn't be as big an issue. Seems like an upgrade to Splitter anyway.

I know he's not a great outside shooter but he seems like he'd make a decent backup big. Have no idea what the cost would be. I've never been a huge Splitter fan and there's no telling what Scott's future holds. Any interest from the Squawk?? As an aside, now that the Celtics have moved on from Sullinger, I'm even less impressed with their roster moves adding Al and losing Sullinger. They seem to have gotten less physical and more finesse. They take a big step back in rebounding (Alice's 10.6 per 48 vs Sullinger's 16.9) and only a marginal uptick in scoring (22.7 pts per 48 for Alice vs 20.9 for Sullinger).

The reasons I think the Hawks will be better this year have probably been touched on already but I'll just put it out there like this: 1. I think they will be a more balanced team in terms of toughness down low (rebounding) versus shooting outside. I don't know why but the idea of a Center taking more 3's and getting less Rebs just makes me sick. I know the Hawks will be sacrificing some scoring by subbing in D12, but I think it will be a net positive as teams won't be as likely to get 2nd chances. I also think D12 opens up shots for the wings, which can only help. 2. I think the injury to Kyle last summer was really undersold last season in terms of how it impacted his preparation. I know he's old, but Ray Allen is pushing social security and he can still shoot. There's a place for guys like Kyle in this league and I think he can excel next year if put in the right situation. Shooters shoot and Kyle is every bit the sharp shooter that others are. Give him a full summer of good workouts and I think we'll all see a lot closer to 2014-15 Kyle rather than 2015-16 Kyle. Hopefully, he comes off the bench and is used as a specialist rather than a 35+ min guy. 3. I'm optimistic about Baze and Prince from an offensive standpoint. I'm hopeful they will start Baze at SG and that Prince will eventually work into starting at SF. A lineup of D17 / Baze / Prince / Sap / D12 is very intriguing to me. So basically, the increased toughness, a healthy and prepared Kyle, and the potential of Baze and Prince give me reasons to think this team will be better than last year. The first two points are what I'm really hanging my hat on. The 3rd pt is more hopeful.

I was looking over some stats from this past season earlier today and it remarkable how Alice was basically just marginally better than a lot of their Bigs in Boston. He's obviously a better player than Sullinger and Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk but statistically, he's not a HUGE upgrade. It will be interesting to see if Steven's system increases his productivity compared to Bud's system. If not, they may have some upset fans in Beantown.

I can only speak for me personally, but I don't criticize Alice for his choice to leave (I actually thank him for it as $136M plus losing Paul was WAY too much for what Alice give you, imo) but I do criticize him for his attitude about leaving. The leaving in a snit, allowing your family to criticize the Hawks and imply that you are being "disrespected" by the Hawks when they offered you a contract that would have paid you as one of the top 10 players in the league when you aren't even a top 25 player in the league is flat out ridiculous. The arrogance of it all is just astounding to me. It's that smug attitude that irks me and that's the origin of my criticism. Has nothing to do with him actually leaving or the amount of money he received.

How in the hell does a guy that averages 15 and 7 and isn't even the best player on his own team feel disrespected by an offer that would have paid him like one of the top 10-15 players in the NBA? Is he completely delusional? I mean, pick any stat you want.... Rebounding: He was 41st in the league and 23rd among Centers at 7.3 per game Scoring: His 15.2 per game was 50th in the NBA and 8th among his position Blocks: He was 11th among centers PER: 45th in the NBA and 15th among Centers RPM: 27th in the NBA and 8th among Centers It's completely laughable to me that Alice thinks he's being disrespected by not receiving an offer of over $30M per season. His numbers place him as an above average Center in the NBA but certainly nothing close to an elite player int he league. He doesn't rank in the top 25 players in the NBA in any category. Hell, I'd argue that the $136M the Hawks offered that "disrespected" Alice would have been an over-payment.

Not to quibble, but that statement is clear as, uh, mud. In fact, I'd say it was just the opposite. The Hawks were willing (seemingly by all accounts) to trade away a better player in PM to accommodate Al after conceding to the five year deal that Al wanted. They were short on the money in terms of annual salary but it was, what, $28.2 to $27.2 on average? Had it been about the money Al would have taken the Hawks deal which would have paid him $23M MORE and given him more security (5th year). I think the Hawks actions showed pretty clearly that he was wanted in Atlanta by Atlanta every bit as much (if not more) than the Celtics. Not to get too far off subject, but I'd argue that Alice actually saved the Hawks from doing something they'd later regret by giving him a 5-year deal AND trading away Paul.

I'm sorry.....I can't seem to get past this statement. Maybe I'm misreading it cuz, you know, it's Tuesday after the 4th and I'm back at work and not really fully with it today, but ARE YOU REALLY FREAKING CLAIMING THAT BOSTON IS FAR SUPERIOR TO EVERYONE ELSE NOT NAMED CLEVELAND????? I mean, like, REALLY? They sub out (of starting) 10.3 pts / 8.3 Reb / 2.3 Ast / 0.6 Blk per game in Jared Sullinger and sub in Alice and his 15.2 pts / 7.3 Reb / 3.2 Ast / 1.5 Blks per game. It's a net gain but it's marginal for a team that was middle of the pack in offensive efficiency last season. They also lost Evan Turner and his 10.5 pts a game. PG: Thomas SG: Bradley SF: Crowder PF: Jerebko C: Alice How is that "far superior to every other team"???

I'd go with : Dennis / Delaney Baze / KK / THj Prince / Thabo SAP / HUMP / Moose D12 / Splitter / Edy I'd love to swap out Tiago, moose, and Scott for better pieces but not sure who right now.

Honestly the more I think about it the more I think Al did Atlanta a favor. Saved them from themselves to a degree. Yes, I wanted him to sign and the hawks to trade Splitter and parts to keep a Sap/Al/D12 combo, but that wasn't realistic. And given the option of keeping Sap or keeping Al, I want Sap. He's a much better player. I'll worry about 2017 in, well, 2017. The way he did it sucked and it makes me not really like him but ultimately, I think the Hawks will be better off than if they had tried to ship Sap off and kept Al (obviously we'll never know for sure since we don't know what Sap would have brought in return, but I'm assuming it would have been based on picks rather than players to free up Cap Space).

It's just two short paragraphs....the cliffs version is the salary cap rise in the NBA isn't experienced over seas so it should be easier for NBA teams to bring above average players to the US. Delaney fits that bill. Pelton says he projects (roughly) as an average to slightly above average backup PG with decent 3pt shooting and an adequate handle. Says he doesn't know contract terms but that since the Hawks only have 3M to spend it should be very good value when compared to the deals that other backup PGs are getting.

Yeah sign me up for a Jamal reunion tour. He was one of my favorites and is instant offense for a team that struggled to score last year. I like it.

Is there any way the Baze deal could be structured with a lower first year (like 14M or so) that would make clearing 18M for Al a little easier? All I've seen is 4-70M for Baze. Anyone know the actual starting salary?

Yeah but the truth of the matter is he was getting that or more regardless. My question is the team better off with him or without him? If it's truly a choice between him or Al, I want Al and will make with the wings we have. But if they somehow get Al to go along with Baze, I have no problem with it as I'm not sure who they'd spend the money on that would be better than Baze.

This is a good point, especially when you consider the Hawks offered Howard 64M first and later upped it to $70.5M. Maybe they got a call from Al inbetween offers? Who knows really. But that is certainly plausible.

I TRULY hope this is the crazy plan.....but what I don't get, is if so why would they announce Baze first and risk it falling through and losing Al when Al is clearly the higher priority?? It just seems backwards to me. Get Al in the house with an agreement and then pursue the trades and crazy stuff to fit Baze in. I mean this scenario, if it even exists with the Hawks, is about risk losing Al or risk losing Baze. Losing Al is far worse, imo.

I find this statement extremely ironic for some reason......

Ok so here's my obvious question....if the deal averages 23.5 what does it start at? If it starts at 20M or so they could theoretically makes some roster moves (splitter, scott, etc.) and free up 12-15 for an additional signing. Is that accurate?

Alright.....now let's get Al to buy in and see what the hell happens. It'll be fun to watch anyway.

There's exactly 2 guys in that array of pics that I wouldn't mind having off the bench in the right situation and for the right money.

While I ultimately think Al re-signs with ATL, I will point out... 1. Bos + Al is far better than Atl - Al (and likely Baze) 2. Fair point and the reason I doubt Al leaves 3. This is irrelevant