Packfill

What was today's mysterious event?

Millsap has never averaged 20 pts per game in an NBA season. That said, Millsap was clearly the focus of opponents defensive efforts - and it is his overall game which makes him such a valuable and important player. With Paul gone, and the unproven secondary offensive options the Hawks now have, you can be certain opponents will look to lock down Dennis first and dare the rest of the team to beat them. It is an easy and obvious strategy. Because of that increased attention, there is a high probability that Dennis' efficiency drops. He should still average 20+ a night, because someone has to score. James Harden's efficiency dropped when he moved from third wheel to top dog in Houston, so saying Dennis is likely to experience a drop in efficiency is really just being reasonable about expectations for this season.

The tanking question is irrelevant at this point unless there are major roster changes still to come. The team made a clear determination to get younger and to retain payroll flexibility going forward. In doing so they lost their best player. It would be surprising even to the most ardent Hawks fan if the team did anything more than squeak into the playoffs. Given the state of the Eastern Conference, getting into the playoffs is a very low bar to hit.

Best rookie playoff performances in history? I think if take Magic Johnson's rookie year playoff performance as the highwater mark, I bet there are a fair number of rookie performances that fall in between!

I agree. The Bucks are on the rise though they need more seasoning and to get their guys healthy (I don't think Parker and Middleton played a game together last year). Greek Freak is younger then Denis and now arguably the second best player in the east.

No doubt Indy is going to take a step back without George, and to a lesser extent Teague, but Myles Turner to me still has lots more upside (while being a pretty decent player already at 21 years old) and guys like Oladipo, Collison and Thad Young give them some veteran stability while the other young big men gain experience in lesser roles. I think the top 5 teams in the east are easy to identify: Cleveland; Boston; Washington; Milwaukee; and Toronto. After that, I see a drop-off but with Charlotte, Miami and Detroit as the most obvious to slip into the final playoff spots. The remaining teams in the east either lack experience (young teams rarely win many games, even with elite talent) or are clearly shuffling the decks and rebuilding. Good topic.

That is depressing.

As long as Billy Knight is not doing the drafting the return to the playoffs should be a bit quicker this time around.

Am I missing something or are the Hawks playing a bunch of veterans 35+ minutes in a preseason game?

Holdy sample size batman! Payne played 9 minutes per game as a freshmen; Drummond played 28 minutes per game (which is the same as what Payne played as a Senior while he average less than one block per game).

What is your point? You obviously missed mine. We all know and agree that there are legions of examples of middling scorers in college that become prolific in the NBA. You previously identified Payne's potential value as rim protector and rebounder. Another poster noted that he was not particularly distinguished in those areas in college. So, please provide examples of mediocre college rebounders and shotblockers who became volume rebounders and/or shotblockers in the pros? You for sure can at least identify some dude who left after only playing a year or two in the NCAA only to improve as he matured. In the case of Payne, however, we have a four year player who is already 23, so you might expect him to have some success playing against an 18 year old Noah Vonleh.

If you are going to make a statement like that you better come up with some more viable comps. Jordan? Two time first team all american, acc freshman of the year and NCAA player of the year - I am guessing quite a few people envisoned him becoming a big time scoring threat in the NBA. Derrick Rose? Due only played one season in the NCAA and was selected first overall specifically because of his upside both as a scorer and distributor. Are there examples of guys who averaged less than a block a game in the NCAA who became prolific NBA shotblockers? This guy was not exactly Nerlens Noel in college. That is not to say Payne won't become a solid player, but shooting prowess is definitely something I think players can develop over the years.

I think the simple reality is that, barring injury, Horford and Milsap will each play 30 minutes a night, leaving an aggregate of around 36 minutes at the C/PF spot for Antić, Payne, Scott and Muscala to fight over. As, there just aren't alot of minute to go around so at least one, and probably two of these guys are not seeing regular minutes.

Many would argue that Kemba Walker is better than Teague.

Those guys all have potentially, but it would be a huge surprise if any of them matured into elite players. Given where they were drafted and/or the free agent dollars involved, just becoming consistent contributors is a good result for the Hawks. That said, if the Hawks added talent in the form of Payne, Tavares and Bazemore, what do we call what the Hornets did in terms of adding Vonleh, Stephenson and Hairston? How about the Bulls adding McDermott and Mirotic?

Hawks are in a tough spot. Good enough to make a run at the second round of the playoffs but in all likelihood not good enough to get to the finals. They are a veteran team built to win now with a limited number of high-upside development players waiting in the wings. Theas east is soft now so I could see why they may want to try to make a run. That said, it is hard not to get the sense that Ferry is still in building mode and not "all-in" with the current roster. In a few years, chances are one of Philly, Orlando or Milwaukee will be rising fast, so the window to win in the east is now.

I don't think the coaching staff will give him meaningful minutes unless he can consistently knock down junpshots.

I don't think Bazemore sees anytime at small forward as he is too undersized. Shooting guard sure, but appears Thabo is the top wing back-up at both spots unless someone like Kent proves worthy of regular minutes.

Given that he is already 23 years old he better be!

A good asset, but you absolutely need a big who can play defense and protect the rim to go along with him unless you have a HOF talent elsewhere covering-up the warts. Detroit made a big mistake signing Smoove because he does not fit well with Drummond and Monroe - they need someone to space the floor. Monroe can work with Drummond because Monroe is comfortable playing in the high post.

It is pretty obvious the team as currently constructed is not a title contender. It is also pretty obvious that Ferry is still looking for core pieces to build around - hence securing decent duplicate depth/rotation players on reasonable deals as trade assets. I have to imagine Ferry is trying to replicate the building process in Houston to some extent and still is waiting to make his James Harden trade. Let us also remember that on the injury front, even Derek Rose and Dwayne Wade have played more games over the past three seasons than Horford.

It could hurt. I can't help but believe Ferry is still in the asset accumulation phase of the rebuilding and handcuffing the team to another big salary limits flexibility going forward. As such, it is hard to get too jazzed about this team and the players as my sense is, and I could be wrong, is that Ferry is still looking for his long-term building blocks and everyone is moveable until he finds the right pieces to build around.

It is a pointless to debate who the Hawks best player is. The unfortunate reality is that no one on the roster is the true franchise talent the team needs to go beyond an annual first round exit from the playoffs.

I agree with sothron and others in having concerns with Ferry's moves to date. Flexibilty is nice, but absent a superstar talent it takes an incredible amount of luck and risk to translate "assets and flexibility" into a legitimate champinship contender. Remember, Houston was fortunate that Harden emerged as much as he did post-trade. Signing a bunch of aging veterans makes sense if you are making a run at a championship. Signing Brand for Hawks team with questionable ability to get out of the first round of the playoffs raises question marks. Could be Danny told Brand that he will deal him to contender at the deadline for a draft pick or high upside youngster. Also could be that Danny has a mandate from ownership to win now. Outside of the two previously mentioned scenarios, you have to at least think that a rebuilding team wants a shot at the top of the 2014 draft, due to the potential franchise changing talent that appears available. Even if Denis and BeBe max-out their potential the Hawks will need a legitimate first option scorer to go with them.

The Rockets TRADED for Harden and agreed to pay him top dollar. He then proceeded to exceed expectations which then led to Howard coming on board. No different than Shaq looking at a young DWade and deciding to go to Miami.