Player Efficiency Ratings at ESPN.com

[lifelong]

this columnist named john hollinger at espn.com has created his own player rating system called "player efficiency ratings." He's rated the Hawks and it doesn't look pretty. A 15 rating is your average, run of the mill starter, according to hollinger.

The blurb on Childress is hilarious, though: "Splitting his year between playing for the Hawks and portraying LeBron's little friend Thirst in the Sprite commercials, Childress' rookie year...."

I don't have insider so I couldn't read the full, detailed player comments, but the blurb on the comments for Joe Johnson read something "maybe the league's most overrated player." An explanation of his rating system is here.

If someone who has insider could comment on what he says about our team, that would be awesome.

[lifelong]

Don't know what to make of it, but perusing through the all the teams in the league, here are some players who are rated higher than anyone on the hawks:

Dikembe Mutombo

Chris Andersen

Raef LaFrentz

Primoz Brezec

Luke Jackson

Eddie Griffin

Hedo Turkoglu

reef

Jason Hart

nazi

Brendan Haywood

[Admin]

 Quote: 

Johnson is a fine, durable player who has improved every year, plays solid defense, can handle multiple positions, and is a deadly shooter. That said, he might be the league's most overrated player. For somebody to offer a maximum contract for the next five years for Johnson's production is beyond ludicrous. For two teams to fight over who gets to do so . . . um, they know he's not that good, right?

This fact should become very obvious once the halo effect of the 2004-05 Suns goes away. The mirage that is Johnson's stardom was a combination of Phoenix's fast pace and Johnson's extremely high minutes. When people see that he averaged 17.1 points per game, had a 47.8 mark on 3-pointers, and can play the point, they assume that Johnson is a star in the making. But Johnson's per-minute stats tell a different story. His 17.3 points per 40 minutes are nothing special, and despite all the 3s his TS% was unexceptional because he gets to the line so rarely. None of Johnson's other numbers are strong selling points either, but Atlanta's $70 million act of desperation got him superstar money anyway.

Other than 3-point shooting, defense is Johnson's best asset. His Defensive PER was very solid and his ability to guard the opponents' top perimeter threat every night was a key to the Suns' defense. He is big for his position and can defend any

position other than center because he's so versatile. Johnson's other primary asset is durability. He hasn't missed a regular season game in over three years and rarely needs to come out of games, which is greatly helpful to a team like Phoenix that had no bench.

Those skills make him valuable and perhaps make him worth more than the midlevel exception. But contrary to popular belief, there is nothing in his track record to suggest he'll ever be a star-caliber player. As a result, the team that paid $70 million for him is getting a bologna sandwich when they thought they ordered filet mignon.

Most similar at age: Calbert Cheaney

[lifelong]

I really am fascinated by these ratings. I may join insider just to read all of the detailed comments. Here's a quote from a chat session in which, right or wrong, sums up what he was going for (Antoine Walker rates out as the league average):

Quote:

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Matt Providence RI: I have a problem with your rating system. your saying the average nba player is Antoine Walker?

SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:13 PM ET ) Nothing about Antoine Walker is average. I'm saying he does enough terrible things to offset the good things that overall he's about as valuable as an average player. (Incidentally, a few years ago that wasn't the case, but he's slipped of late).

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[WraithSentinel]

Reject III picking up where Reject Jr left off on hating the Hawks. They sure are making Reject Sr very happy.

We all know if JJ would have went to play PG for the Lakers,Knicks,Pistons,Spurs,Heats or just about any other team outside of Hawks,Bobcats and Hornets. Reject Sr(Vescey),Reject Jr(Ford), and Reject III(Hollinger) would all be praising JJ.

[Admin]

 Al Harrington: 

As I mentioned in the section on similarity scores, Al Harrington was the most "common" player in this season's book. Over the past 20 years 75 different players had a Similarity Score of 98 or greater when compared with Harrington, the most of any pro player. This fact should permanently end the "Harrington as rising star" discussion. He is what he is: a generic NBA forward who is decent at everything but truly good at nothing. His per-40-minute stats have never hinted at the star potential that his "tools" supposedly indicated he had, and in truth his physical skills hardly seem phenomenal either.

Harrington certainly has some positives, however. He can punish small forwards in the low post from the left block and is an above-average defensive player at either spot. He also has range out to the 3-point line and is capable of taking bigger players off the dribble when he plays the power forward spot. However, he lacks the go-to move of most top scorers and isn't athletic enough to leap over defenders in traffic to get himself easy shots. As a result, his PER hasn't climbed above the mid-teens.

Harrington is a free agent after the season and could be traded by Atlanta by the time this book is published. With Smith, Williams, and Childress making up the team's forward rotation for the foreseeable future, Harrington isn't filling a need anyway. The Hawks would be better off if they parlay him into a decent center or point guard.

Most similar at age: Juwan Howard

 Josh Smith: 

Perhaps the best leaper to enter the league since Jason Richardson, Smith burst on to the national scene in February when he won the Slam Dunk Contest with a series of high-flying maneuvers. He was a brilliant dunker in games as well, especially on alleyoops, and nearly half his field-goals on the season came on dunks.

However, he put his hops to use more at the defensive end. Smith averaged two blocks per game -- an extraordinary total for a perimeter player -- thanks to his jumping ability and exquisite timing. One effort in particular stood out -- a 10-block effort against Dallas in which he thwarted three Dirk Nowitzki dunk attempts and didn't commit a single foul. Smith also keeps his blocked shots in play, which is rare for a young player. As one might expect from a great leaper, he is an outstanding rebounder who had the league's third-best Rebound Rate among small forwards.

Despite those strengths, Smith still has a long way to go in the other aspects of defense. He often lost his man away from the ball and relied too much on his shot-blocking to bail him out rather than moving his feet and beating his man to the spot. Plus, he rarely blocked his man out, which allowed opponents tons of offensive rebounds.

Offensively, Smith's main weapon right now is the dunk. He has no post game to speak of and is skinny enough that he may never be able to do much damage on the blocks. His mid-range jumper improved over the course of the season and served as his other source of points. He has a good release, if a bit low, and has a nice arc and rotation, so with time it should become more of a weapon. However, he has almost no game off the dribble. His moves are slow and mechanical and need much refinement if he's going to become an offensive force.

In terms of projecting his future, Smith's youth means that only five players were valid comps for him. While the example of the most similar player (Darius Miles) is discouraging, Tracy McGrady ranked very highly as well, and one can see similarities in their rookie performance. It's so rare for a player to play this well as a teenager that it's hard to know what Smith's ceiling is, but between the dunks and the blocks it's possible the Hawks have found their first marketable star since Dominique Wilkins.it's possible the Hawks have found their first marketable star since Dominique Wilkins.

Most similar at age: Darius Miles

 Marvin Williams: 

Folks who saw Williams only in the NCAA final are probably wondering how he became the second overall pick, but the jittery hands he showed that night weren't a problem the rest of the year. Williams can step out and hit the 3 (43.2 percent at North Carolina) or bang inside for put-backs (he averaged nearly a rebound every three minutes). An added plus is that he shot 85 percent from the line. It still remains to be seen how he'll be used in his rookie season because he needs to fill out a bit before he can handle the rigors of power forward, but his collegiate numbers were outstanding for his age group and he should combine with Smith to form a devastating forward combo.

 Josh Childress: 

Splitting his year between playing for the Hawks and portraying LeBron's little friend Thirst in the Sprite commercials, Childress' rookie year was substantially better than most people realize. Critics panned him when he struggled early on and observers quickly forgot about the Hawks altogether, but Childress' final numbers were extremely solid for a rookie. His Rebound Rate led all shooting guards, and would have ranked highly even if he moved to his natural small forward position. At any position, his quick hops and long arms make him a serious threat on the offensive glass.

First he'll have to improve his jump shot though. Childress has a weird jump shot that he pushes from under his chin with his elbow flying out to the side, which sends the ball on a low trajectory. Basically, it's like Shawn Marion's but without the arc or accuracy, and makes it tough for him to play in the backcourt. However, he still managed to shoot a high percentage because he got so many dunks and lay-ups, and his free-throw percentage is outstanding. He likes to come off curls on the left side and go straight to the rim, which also gets him to the line a fair amount.

Childress came into the league with a rep as a good ballhandler, but he failed to live up to that in his rookie season. He wasn't terribly creative off the dribble and his Assist Ratio was surprisingly poor. Since the Hawks have so few players who can create their own shot, it would be hugely beneficial if he could improve that number this season. He also needs to get better at the defensive end. Childress' Defensive PER was among the worst in the league, and while some of that was a result of playing out of position, he has a ways to go in terms of effort and toughness as well.

Most similar at age: Sean Elliott

 Zaza Pachulia: 

Harris plucked Pachulia via the Bobcats when Orlando left him unprotected in the expansion draft. It was an astute but unheralded move. Pachulia showed sharp improvement in his second season and quickly is becoming one of the game's more skilled big men. Pachulia has soft hands and a great feel for the game for such a young player, frequently putting himself in position for easy lay-ups. He also sees the floor well and can handle the ball, which is why both his Assist and Turnover Ratios were above average.

Pachulia's big weakness is a lack of athleticism. He doesn't block shots -- he had only 34 all last season, or about one for every 40 minutes -- and he gets dunked on a lot. He'll have to learn how to move his feet into position to take charges, or otherwise he's going to be on more posters than Craig Ehlo. He also needs to get stronger so he's not so easily overpowered in the post.

Pachulia became a restricted free agent in the summer, providing an interesting dilemma for the Bucks. Based on his age and production, there seems to be little doubt that Pachulia would be worth a substantial investment. Plus, the Bucks played well with Pachulia on the court. He had the best net plus-minus on the team, and the Bucks went 19-15 when Pachulia played at least 20 minutes -- compared to 11-37 the rest of the time.

But it seems unlikely that Pachulia would see 20 minutes in any game with the Bucks' addition of Bogut in the middle and the re-signing of Gadzuric. In addition, some have wondered if Pachulia is really as young as the media guide says. As a result, the Bucks let Pachulia sign with Atlanta in the offseason, where Pachulia will take over as the Hawks' starting center. Based on his projected stats, he's ready for the promotion.

Most similar at age: Kwame Brown

According to Hollinger, this is our starting 5:

C - Kwame Brown

PF - Juwan Howard

SF - Darius Miles

SG - Sean Elliot

PG - Calbert Cheaney

Now thats a squad that will get you to 20 wins

[lifelong]

the thing about these ratings, though, is that it isn't some talking head like vescey just shooting off the cuff. hollinger attempted to analyze each individual player in the entire league using objective statistical criteria. he didn't just say: "well they suck because they're the hawks."

[mrhonline]

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using objective statistical criteria

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That's an oxymoron in the NBA.

I love stats as much as the next person (actually, much more), but there are too many variables to assign one number to everything a player does or has happen to him in 40 minutes.

There is no magic pill.

[Buzzard]

Quote:

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Quote:

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using objective statistical criteria

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That's an oxymoron in the NBA.

I love stats as much as the next person (actually, much more), but there are too many variables to assign one number to everything a player does or has happen to him in 40 minutes.

There is no magic pill.

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I agree. God only knows I love stats but to have Bonzai Wells ranked ahead of JJ should pretty much cause any GM with half a brain to place no credence in this system at all.

Imagine Memphis offering us or the Suns, Bonsai straight up for JJ....thats just too funny!

[Hawkzzz21]

I didn't know (or can't remember), that Smoove had no fouls in that 10 block performance. That is impressive!

Zaza's Age is wrong? Haven't heard this one. So is Zaza's Value less, if he's 25 years old?

[Admin]

According to his ESPN profile he will be 22 in 2006.

[mrhonline]

Quote:

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According to his ESPN profile he will be 22 in 2006.

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Supposedly, he's older than he claims...

[mudderfudder77]

Quote:

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According to his ESPN profile he will be 22 in 2006.

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These Agents aren't stupid, they know that a younger player with the same skill set is worth more money to teams - that magical word "potential". It's just like Latin American players in baseball that have fudged their birth certificates, or Cuban exiles that have knocked 5 years off their real age.

[Admin]

Hmm, I havent heard this before. I thought that only dominican/cuban/etc baseball players lied about their age. Havent heard of this from euro basketball players before that I can remember.

[AHF]

Zaza's age is tougher to fabricate because he isn't someone who came out of nowhere. His mother played for the Soviet national team and retired to have him - that isn't something too tough to fact check. He also has been playing professionally since the age of 16 so he certainly can't change his reported age past that time.

[Nicholasp27]

mount mutumbo claims he's 30 but he's really 63

[drzachary]

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mount mutumbo claims he's 30 but he's really 63

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He really died in 1250, but was reanimated by shamans in Zaire. The corpse stench is notable whenever you see him play in person.

[Nicholasp27]

that's some wicked voodoo magic

[Hawkzzz21]

I was just throwing an age out there. 25 was not reported. It just said he might be older. So I was just giving 25 as an example.

The Soviet Thing is a good way to credit it, I guess.