Monday Insider (not by Chad Ford)

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How much time will

Shaq need to heal?

by Terry Brown

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Also Below: Magic taken for granted

2003 NBA Free Agent Sneak Peek

NBA position battles: Who's going to do the Magic's dirty work?

NBA Insider Chad Ford is off for the next two weeks. He'll return on Tuesday, Oct. 1

Shhhhhhhh . . . .

Shaq is still sleeping.

It's two or three weeks, they say, before he can even take that closed shoe of his off. You know, the one covering the swollen big toe he just had surgery on a few days ago to relieve the pain that the big guy suffered through all last season. It's six weeks before he can even run at all on it, and we mean a light jog. Until then, it's the stationary bike and, hopefully for the rest of the 28 teams in the NBA, lots of bon bons, leather couches and Oprah Winfrey. We're told that the three-time defending champion Lakers aren't expecting the three-time Finals MVP Shaquille O'Neal back until the end of November.

The season begins Oct. 29.

Flip the calender, mark the home and away games, back-to-back contests and try not to smile.

The rest of the NBA gets to pretend it has a chance to win the title for roughly 17 games.

That's breaks down to 10 road games, seven games against teams that made the playoffs last season, eight games against teams with winning records, four games coming directly after another one, two against teams they would normally beat easily but come at the end of three-game stretches away from Staples plus a home game in which the NBA will present the defending champs their rings, which traditionally inspires the visitors to whip them on national TV for the honor, or snub, or however you want to look at it.

They open up with Tim Duncan and the Spurs on Oct. 29, then the very next day play theTrailBlazers on the road. Crosstown Rival Clippers come next, eventually Paul Pierce and the Celtics, Michael Jordan and the Wizards, Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks, Tracy McGrady and the Magic and Jerry West and the Grizzlies.

All without the services of Shaquille O'Neal.

You saw how close Sacramento came to beating the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals last year. Portland might have been even closer in the Western Conference Finals in 2000. A basket here, a loose ball there, maybe one or two more losses dropping them just one seed in the bracket to a little tougher team earlier on in the playoffs until they aren't able to muster up that fourth quarter or overtime effort to squeak out another series.

Only three games separated the Lakers and the fifth seed two years ago and half a game from losing home-court advantage versus the Sixers that Finals. Only one game separated the Lakers and the fourth seed last season. Only half a game separated them from losing home-court advantage versus the Spurs in the second round that year.

The Lakers were 7-8 last year without O'Neal while going 51-16 during the regular season with him.

You do the math.

Over the last three seasons in which the Lakers won back-to-back-to-back championships, they've used the opening month of November to impress their will upon the rest of the league.

Last year, they went 16-1 to start the season. Over the first 17 games (the amount Shaq is expected to miss) of the last three seasons, they've won 80 percent of their games going 41-10.

After that opening stanza, they cooled down to 71 percent.

Now is the time to strike, kick, bite, pull hair and basically hit them when they're down.

Hopefully, Shaq will need even more time to heal. Hopefully, he'll start off like last season in which he averaged fewer points, fewer rebounds, fewer assists and shot worse from the field and free-throw line in his first month of play than at any other time during the season.

Besides, the big guy has been in statistical decline for three seasons now, going from his MVP numbers of 29.7 points, 13.6 rebounds and 3 blocks per game in 2000 to 28.7 points, 12.7 rebounds and 2.7 blocks in 2001 to 27.2 points, 10.7 rebounds and 2 blocks last year.

Last season was the first time in four seasons that his numbers dipped below his career averages.

And it might have had something to do with the 15 games he missed last season. After all, he missed only eight games the year before that, three games before that and one game before that.

We can only hope that a longer offseason with a prolonged rehab to go with two or three more bags of potato chips and dip per soap opera will keep him from averaging the 36.3 points, 12.3 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game on 59 percent shooting that he dropped on the Nets in last year's Finals even with the busted up toe.

Cross your fingers and walk very quietly . . .

Magic taken for granted

Will the real Grant Hill please step forward.

"He looks like his old self again," Magic point guard Darrell Armstrong told the Orlando Sentinel. "He's quick. I'll tell you what — he's quicker than the last two years watching him when he first came back. He's really quick. He's still got that first step. He got his first step back."

Says head coach Doc Rivers: "He looks great. I'm looking out my window right as we speak and they're playing full-court. Grant looks like Grant Hill."

And Grant Hill, himself: "I have a lot to prove," Hill says. "I want to show that I can still play at a high level. I don't think I've lost my skills. I think I can be even better than I was before."

Well, "Before" was All Star, All NBA, All Universe. You remember when he used to single-handidly push the Pistons into the playoffs with near triple-double averages. Since then, he's played only 18 games for the Magic after severely injuring his ankle during the 2000 playoffs and going through surgery after surgery after rehab stint trying to get it back in working order.

The Magic are betting that he has.

"As much as it has appeared to be a wait-and-see situation, we must — and don't have much of a choice — believe we will have Grant back this season — and build accordingly," general manager John Gabriel said.

So much so that they are penciling him in at the starting small forward spot over former rookie of the year Mike Miller and even thinking about moving the veteran to the point guard position so that Tracy McGrady, Hill and Miller can be on the court at the same time.

"If it explodes on us, it explodes," said Rivers. "But it explodes for the right reasons, and that is we're trying to be a better basketball team."

Rivers excited to see how Magic will mesh

Jeff D'Alessio / Florida Today

Long time gone

Jerry Brewer / Orlando Sentinel

8 men out (on the court)

Jerry Brewer / Orlando Sentinel

[Boondocks]

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not by Chad Ford

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I don't miss him, do you?