What's the cost of a win?

[bfwolf]

If you take a look at our record and our opponents' record objectively, you'll probably come to the conclusion that we have a 95%+ chance of finishing with somewhere between the 2nd and 10th worst records in the NBA (I'd say 3rd to 10th normally, but when the Celtics get Pierce back, they have a legitimate shot of passing us). So this begs the question: if you assume that we'll finish in that range, how much does a win cost us in terms of our chances to get a top pick, and contrastly, how much does an incremental loss gain us?

Starting with a historical perspective, the 2nd worst team over the last 5 years has finished with an average of 20.4 wins. The Celtics, the second worst team in the league this year, are on a pace to win 23 games. Given that the Celtics are likely to improve with the return of Pierce and that no other team besides Memphis is any worse, let's assume 23 wins is the magic mark for finishing with the 2nd worst record this year (twice in the past 5 years, 23 wins has been the mark of the 2nd worst team, so this is reasonable).

On the flip side, over the last 5 years, the 10th worst team has finished with 35 wins. The 10th worst team this year, the Hornets, are on pace for 34 wins. Pretty consistent...let's use the 34 win number for argument's sake.

So there it is, 11 wins separate 2nd from 10th.

So what's the difference between 2nd and 10th from a draft lottery perspective? Let's start with the chances of getting the 1st pick and Oden.

The 2nd worst team has a 19.9% chance.

The 10th worst team has a 1.1% chance.

That's an 18.8% difference.

The Hawks have 15 wins right now. We're 19 wins short of 10th place. If you divide 18.8% by 19, you get a 1% reduction in our chances of getting Oden for every win. That's right. Every win costs us a 1% chance at Oden.

And what about a shot at a top 3 pick?

The 2nd worst team has a 55.8% chance.

The 10th worst team has a 4.0% chance.

That's a 51.8% difference. If youd divide 51.8% by 19, you get a 2.7% reduction in our chances of keeping our pick this year for every win.

Of course, if you think there's value in winning based on the possibility of us making the playoffs (which is semi-delusional) or in changing the mindset of the team/possibility of signing FAs for next year (which is reasonable), that's not factored in.

[bfwolf]

OH, I forgot to add the value of a loss. Losses are worth a lot less because we need so many more of them. But we lose a lot more than we win, so it works out. Right now, we're 32 losses away from the 2nd pick in the draft. So every loss is worth 0.6% increased odds of getting Oden and 1.6% increased odds of keeping our pick.

[gsuteke]

barring trades and coin flips:

we give Pheonix a pick that 10 or worse. the Hawks can hold their heads high and we as fans won't feel burned about seeing Pheonix pick a project.

[bfwolf]

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barring trades and coin flips:

we give Pheonix a pick that 10 or worse. the Hawks can hold their heads high and we as fans won't feel burned about seeing Pheonix pick a project.

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Not sure I follow.

[gsuteke]

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barring trades and coin flips:

we give Pheonix a pick that 10 or worse. the Hawks can hold their heads high and we as fans won't feel burned about seeing Pheonix pick a project.

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Not sure I follow.

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you are guaranteed almost (this last draft was an abberation) to find someone that will help you in the top 5. what's you get down to the 10 range it becomes a crapshoot.

if the Hawks finish strong the pick will be lower. they're going to get it sooner or later.

[bfwolf]

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barring trades and coin flips:

we give Pheonix a pick that 10 or worse. the Hawks can hold their heads high and we as fans won't feel burned about seeing Pheonix pick a project.

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Not sure I follow.

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you are guaranteed almost (this last draft was an abberation) to find someone that will help you in the top 5. what's you get down to the 10 range it becomes a crapshoot.

if the Hawks finish strong the pick will be lower. they're going to get it sooner or later.

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That all seems to be under the assumption that we won't get a top 3 pick, which is what the whole thread is about.

[gsuteke]

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barring trades and coin flips:

we give Pheonix a pick that 10 or worse. the Hawks can hold their heads high and we as fans won't feel burned about seeing Pheonix pick a project.

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Not sure I follow.

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you are guaranteed almost (this last draft was an abberation) to find someone that will help you in the top 5. what's you get down to the 10 range it becomes a crapshoot.

if the Hawks finish strong the pick will be lower. they're going to get it sooner or later.

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That all seems to be under the assumption that we won't get a top 3 pick, which is what the whole thread is about.

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i've given up on that.

[vdunkndunk]

You'd think that losing is what this franchise does best...but you'd be wrong: we can't even LOSE correctly. Dwight Howard, Omeka Okafur, Greg Oden, and Kevin Durant will all slip through our fingers thanks to a couple of meaningless wins.

I suppose we should thank Bobby Sura and Terry Stotts for "teaching us how to win," obecause this franchise never would have recovered from the "losing attitude" that we would have engendered by going after Dwight Howard or Omeka Okafur.

Trust the Hawks to end up with the number 4 pick...as far away as possible from the playoffs without actually delivering the franchise hope in the form of a top draft pick.

[bfwolf]

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You'd think that losing is what this franchise does best...but you'd be wrong: we can't even LOSE correctly. Dwight Howard, Omeka Okafur, Greg Oden, and Kevin Durant will all slip through our fingers thanks to a couple of meaningless wins.

I suppose we should thank Bobby Sura and Terry Stotts for "teaching us how to win," obecause this franchise never would have recovered from the "losing attitude" that we would have engendered by going after Dwight Howard or Omeka Okafur.

Trust the Hawks to end up with the number 4 pick...as far away as possible from the playoffs without actually delivering the franchise hope in the form of a top draft pick.

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Getting the 4th pick in the draft would require us to do more losing that we currently are. You can't get the 4th pick unless you finish the the worst to 4th worst record. I would be happy with any of those finishes.

[Guest Walter]

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Every win costs us a 1% chance at Oden.

That's a 51.8% difference. If youd divide 51.8% by 19, you get a 2.7% reduction in our chances of keeping our pick this year for every win.

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But you play to win, BDawg! Don't you know that? Even if it means you lose for the next 10 years, you play to win. In the Hawk's case, ESPECIALLY if it means you lose for the next 10 years...

Don't be rational. Bobby Sura doesn't like that.

W

[CBAreject]

Every time you smugly spout your "Where is the 'tank' crowd now?" after some flukish win, remember this.

Every time you look ahead and hope we can go 7-8 in the next 15 games to save face, remember this.

Every time you say "We have to teach these boys how to win!", remember this.

Every win is reducing our chances at ever really winning. Yet you keep believing that you're the only "true fans". I guess if passionately supporting a team for 20+ years and wanting them to (for once) have a shot, a SHOT at a title means that I'm not a true fan....so be it. Who cares about phony labels? I want to win, and I'm willing to give up a 6-7 of your cheap, pathetic wins to have that SHOT.

How can you people not even want a chance?

[TheDude]

some of us wanted them to tank late in the year the last couple years....but not this year...we have a young team that has a lot of potential and is gaining some experience now...

[TroyMcClure]

Thanks for the work. Great numbers!