ROY early looks

[DrReality]

Promising rookie class includes Hawks' Horford

By SEKOU SMITH

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Published on: 10/14/07

The NBA exhibition season is barely two weeks old, and already people are choosing sides in the Rookie of the Year debate.

The Hawks could be well represented this year, with both Al Horford and Acie Law IV looking like legitimate candidates for the honor.

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And with Portland center Greg Oden out for the season after microfracture surgery — and sorry, ticket buyers, but that does include this afternoon's game between the Hawks and the Trail Blazers at Philips Arena — it appears to be a wide-open field.

The front-runners (based on the earliest of returns from the exhibition season):

THE EARLY FAVORITES

AL HORFORD - Forward/center, Hawks

The sooner Horford joins the Hawks' starting lineup, and it remains a possibility as long as the team suffers on the low block, the sooner his campaign can kick into high gear. He's got all the right intangibles (high draft pick, household name, skills to match). But he'll need to work his way into a starting role to have a legitimate chance to pull of the upset.

RODNEY STUCKEY - Guard, Pistons

Oden, Durant and Horford were all sexier names on draft night. But league executives were united in their affinity for Stuckey, who is already being compared to a cross between Baron Davis and Dwyane Wade. He'll have a similar dilemma to Horford's in that he'll play off the bench for Detroit, behind Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton.

ACIE LAW IV - Point guard, Hawks

Law's candidacy is directly tied to the success or failure of the Hawks this season. If they're finally able to shed their losers label and make the playoffs for the first time in eight years, they'll need a huge push from the only new face at their most crucial position of need. And after the first couple of weeks, Law seems to up to the challenge.

MIKE CONLEY JR.- Point guard, Grizzlies

It's unclear as to whether Conley will even start for Memphis. However, if Mark Iavaroni's up-tempo attack has any chance of succeeding, they'll need the energy and athletic ability that Conley brings to the party. He has all the other tools necessary for a credible campaign.

THE DARKHORSE(S)

Javaris Crittenton - Guard, Lakers

The Atlanta native got off to a fantastic start with 18 points in his debut. And he's working with the all-important chip-on-his-shoulder factor from draft night, as he explained on the blog he's doing for the team's Web site: "People have been underestimating me my whole life. I'm pretty big, pretty strong for my size, and I'm pretty quick. People are going to start to realize that when they see me on the court and see me play a little bit more. That's the reason that I slipped to 19 and I'm with the Lakers. All those teams that passed up on me are going to see their mistake." Could be. But he'll have to put up monster numbers to get into this race.

Joakim Noah, forward/center, Bulls

Much like Tyrus Thomas a year ago, Noah's candidacy will most likely fall victim to the Bulls' preference for playing high-paid veterans in place of inexperienced rookies. And as long as Ben Wallace has a headband, he's going to be Chicago's starting center. Where Noah can make up ground is in the wins department and with his trademark personal flair (quality numbers won't hurt).

[DJlaysitup]

I'm sure pulling for Horf. But Stuckey may me a diamond in the rudy field (not exactly the rough).

[DrReality]

What is the deal with Durant. Anyone heard how he's faired in the first few games? He's so thin he's gonna take his licks.

[KB21]

Durant is going to take his licks, but he will score. Seattle is going to let him shoot the ball at will. Durant may average over 20 PPG as a rookie, and if he does that, it really doesn't matter what else he does. The ROY award is a shallow award that typically goes to the rookie that scores the most, not the rookie that makes the biggest impact on the game.

I think Durant will probably score 20-22 PPG, but I also think he will be lucky to break 40% shooting on the year. Plus, I highly doubt he will be a factor on the boards or defensively. However, due to his scoring ability, he's the leading ROY candidate.

Al Horford will probably average something like 12 PPG and 8 RPG as a rookie while playing good defense in the post. His performance will largely go unnoticed because he isn't going to be a high volume scorer.

[DJlaysitup]

Quote:

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...I think Durant will probably score 20-22 PPG, but I also think he will be lucky to break 40% shooting on the year. Plus, I highly doubt he will be a factor on the boards or defensively. However, due to his scoring ability, he's the leading ROY candidate...

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Shooting %age of 40...probably right. That's something that always drives me crazy. I remember when all we had was boxscores and such. I always looked at team scoring percentage, rebounding, and attempts. That's why I figured my Celtics (the Parrish/McHale/Bird Celtics) could always beat the Hawks.

Better FG%age and rebounding...and it always worked.

[Swatguy]

I've been telling you guys, Javaris is the real deal. And his time is now rather than later.