Some teams hope for lottery's consolation prize

[HawkTodd]

Some teams hope for lottery's consolation prize (5-21-03).

http://espn.go.com/nba/columns/ratto_ray/1557345.html

The NBA Draft Lottery has been elevated to prime time, on the theory that any society that can make itself care about two male singers whose budding musical careers have K-Tel written all over them can care about LeBron James' next day job.

And while the only question to be settled Thursday evening is who wins the LeBron Sweepstakes, the enduring question remains, "What kind of draft is this going to be -- The Patrick Ewing kind, or the Michael Jordan kind?"

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The Patrick Ewing kind, from 1985, is the one in which the only Ping-Pong ball to have is the first one. It explains why Dave DeBusschere, then the general manager of the New York Knickerbockers, erupted in glee when his team got the ball.

It explains why Al Attles, then the general manager of the Golden State Warriors, the team with the worst record and the most crying need for Ewing, looked like he had just been handed a bowlful of crispy death.

It explains why conspiracy nuts still believe the NBA rigged the draft to put Ewing in New York. That's how important Ewing was at the time.

The Michael Jordan kind, from the year before, is the one where the best player is the third player in the draft, but one in which a lot of people got healthy in a hurry.

It explains why the Houston Rockets were happy with winning the lottery and taking Akeem (later Hakeem) Olajuwon. It explains why the Portland Trail Blazers are mocked to this day for taking Sam Bowie with the second pick. It explains why the Chicago Bulls matter even now, because Jordan went third, to them.

And as a refreshing if undertold sidelight, why the '84 draft was one of the best in history, including No. 4 (Sam Perkins), No. 5 (Charles Barkley), No. 9 (Otis Thorpe), No. 11 Kevin Willis (who is still playing), No. 14 (Michael Cage, one of the best power forwards of his era), and No. 16 (John Stockton, one of the best point guards of any era).

Thus, while everyone agrees that the lottery winner must take LeBron James, his enormous shoe contract, his considerable entourage and his obvious talent, there are a quiet but defiant minority among the NBA's hired brains who would much rather finish second.

Not because they hate James, but because they think the real prize is Darko Milicic, the 6-foot-11 Yugoslav teenager who has been playing against, and more than holding his own, men rather than fellow high schoolers. They think Milicic is already a superb player, and only likely to get better, while they wonder if James is rapidly approaching his peak.

Hey, it's an opinion. And it has a short shelf life, because everything is revealed soon enough.

For example, 1986 is considered the worst draft ever because drugs and injuries and indolence ravaged the class, but it was a great draft for Ron Harper, Arvydas Sabonis and Mark Price.

Sometimes teams don't always get what they thought they drafted. For every Michael Jordan, right, there's a Kwame Brown.

On the other hand, 1983 issued forth an almost unremitting stream of role players, from Ralph Sampson through Byron Scott through Antoine Carr. Only No. 124 Clyde Drexler, advanced into the special class of player that every team thinks it gets with those high picks.

And normally, it is still better to pick first than second, let alone third. In 1969, Kareem Abdul Jabbar (nee Lew Alcindor) went before Neal Walk, Lucius Allen, Terry Driscoll and Larry Cannon. Bill Walton was the only choice in 1974, even though Bobby Jones (No. 5), Jamal Wilkes (No. 11) and Maurice Lucas (No. 14) did just fine. In 1979, there was Magic Johnson, and then there was David Greenwood and an army of other guys. In 1997, Tim Duncan was the be-all and end-all, but only because Tracy McGrady (No. 9) was considered too risky and Chauncey Billups (No. 3) was a team removed from his ultimate place of stardom.

Sometimes it's for someone else to lead, like 1980, when Kevin McHale was the real No. 1, but was traded down to No. 3 because the Warriors wanted, needed and got Joe Barry Carroll. In 1981, Isiah Thomas went after Mark Aguirre. In 1994, Jason Kidd went behind Glenn Robinson. In 1995, Joe Smith went before Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace, Kevin Garnett and Michael Finley.

And sometimes it doesn't matter at all. The two best players out of the 1989 draft were Tim Hardaway (No. 14) and Vlade Divac (No. 26), even though we're willing to listen to any argument you might have for Shawn Kemp (No. 17).

Most of the time, though, it matters. A lot. Carmelo Anthony, for example, hasn't even been mentioned here, because as of this moment, only Jordan, McHale, Baron Davis and arguably Dominique Wilkins have emerged third from a draft class and ended up the best player in that draft.

So we await the news from this draft -- in five years. Thursday is just for the marks.