What landing LeBron means to lottery teams

[HawkTodd]

What landing LeBron means to lottery teams. (5-21-03)

http://espn.go.com/nba/columns/misc/1557195.html

NEW YORK -- Jackpot!

Any one of the 13 teams competing in Thursday night's NBA draft lottery for LeBron James would kill for a chance to say that word. Only 12 have the chance -- Memphis owns Houston's No. 1 pick in this year's draft -- just one will win the right to select the consensus overall No. 1 pick.

Against All Odds?

If history has shown anything, the percentages don't always play out as they should in the NBA draft lottery:

Yr. Winner Pct.

'02 Houston 8.9%

'01 Washington 15.7%

'00 New Jersey 4.4%

'99 Chicago 15.7%

'98 L.A. Clippers 22.5%

'97 San Antonio 21.6%

'96 Philadelphia 33.7%

'95 Golden State 9.4%

'94 Milwaukee 16.3%

Here are five things to keep in mind when watching Thursday's "LeBron Sweepstakes":

Since the lottery began in 1985, only twice has the team with the worst record in the league won the lottery: 1990 Nets (Derrick Coleman), 1988 Clippers (Danny Manning). This includes teams who were tied for the worst record, as well.

Since the NBA started scaling/weighting the chances for the lottery in 1990, only twice has a team with the best chance to receive the No. 1 overall pick actually received it: In 1996, while Vancouver had the worst record that year, the Grizzlies weren't eligible for the top pick due to expansion agreements. Philadelphia had the best lottery chance that year and won. The Sixers selected Allen Iverson. In 1990, the Nets won the lottery and selected Coleman. When the Clippers selected Manning No. 1 in 1988, they had the league's worst record, but teams had an equal number of chances to get the No. 1 pick in the lottery.

Since the start of the lottery in 1985, nine of the 18 No. 1 overall picks have gone on to win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award.

A record 31 international players have declared for early entry into this year's draft.

James could become just the second high school player to be drafted with the first overall pick. The Wizards made Kwame Brown, from Glynn Academy H.S. (Ga.), the first overall pick in the 2001 draft.

So, with those facts in mind, Mitch Lawrence looks at how landing James would impact the seven Eastern Conference lottery teams, while Frank Hughes breaks down how the high school phenom would help Western Conference teams in the lottery.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record

17-65

Chances

225

1st Pick

22.5%

2nd Pick

20.3%

3rd Pick

17.6%

LeBron or LeBust.

The buzz around the league is that the Cavs have decided they will trade their pick if they don't get the No. 1 spot. They've totally fallen off the basketball map, so it's easy to see why they're going with that strategy.

Carmelo Anthony and Darko Milicic, projected to follow James, wouldn't have anywhere near the impact of the Akron prodigy. In anticipation of getting James, they've changed their colors (now gold and burgundy), logo and uniforms. Where would his presence be felt first? At the box office, where the Cavs averaged a league-low 11,497 per game last season.

"We get LeBron, you won't see an empty seat in the place,'' said one Cleveland executive.

If they're lucky enough to get James, he can step right in at the point. But there are potential chemistry problems: Ricky Davis wants the ball. Darius Miles wants to play. And Dajuan Wagner was seen as a point guard. The Cavs have been trying to unload Miles, to no avail. Look for that effort to continue.

Winners of only 17 games last season, they still will not reach the playoffs in James' first season. But he gets them pointed in the right direction.

Denver Nuggets

Record

17-65

Chances

225

1st Pick

22.5%

2nd Pick

20.3%

3rd Pick

17.6%

The acquisition of James would at least validate Kiki Vandeweghe's jettisoning of Nick Van Exel, Raef LaFrentz and James Posey, as well as others. Imagine if the Nuggets got rid of all those players and ended up with the fifth pick. Yikes. Talk about a publicity nightmare.

As it is, James would be the perfect fit for Denver. Not that he would make them instant contenders -- Shaq could probably not do that. But to send out a front line of youngsters Nene Hilario, Nikoloz Tskitishvili and James would be interesting, if for no other reason than to see which one develops more rapidly and becomes the team leader.

There are still many, many holes on the Nuggets roster, but at least coach Jeff Bzdelik would teach James the correct way to play in the NBA (read: hard and competitively). Also, the Pepsi Center truly is one of the league's nicest buildings, though nobody would know it because so few attend Nuggets games. At least initially, James would go a long way toward partially filling the venue.

Toronto Raptors

Record

24-58

Chances

157

1st Pick

15.7%

2nd Pick

15.8%

3rd Pick

15.6%

Most people felt that the Raptors would be a No. 4 or 5 seed last season, but then Vince Carter and Antonio Davis went down with injuries, and the bottom fell out. If they get James, it'll all be worth it.

"Getting him will make Vince Carter happy,'' said one Eastern Conference GM, "because LeBron will take some of the pressure off him. If they stay healthy, they could have a top-four finish.''

The Raptors were last in defensive rebounding last season, so James should help in that area, along with putting some life into their oft-anemic offense (27th, 90.9 ppg). One down-the-line problem: Even though Carter stayed, Tracy McGrady left town. For the most part, players don't see Toronto as a major basketball town. Will James?

Better question, who will be coaching James?

Miami Heat

Record

25-57

Chances

120

1st Pick

12.0%

2nd Pick

12.6%

3rd Pick

13.3%

If he gets this kid, you won't hear Pat Riley talk about leaving the bench and retiring. He'll be good for 10 more years.

James would be the best backcourt player Riley has had since a fellow named Magic. James would be terrific for Riley, and not just because the Heat desperately need a major talent to replace the departing Alonzo Mourning.

"Pat will be a great influence on LeBron,'' one Western Conference VP said. "LeBron has to respect what Pat has done as a coach."

Besides the obvious boon James would mean for the Heat in South Florida, he could lead to a quick turnaround for a team that won only 25 times. With Caron Butler, who had a very good freshman campaign, James could kick-start the Heat's running game. And we all know how much better Eddie Jones is when he's playing in a transition game. With James, the Heat would still need to address their lack of quality big men.

But the days of Riley having to endure losing -- and talking of seeing the end of his Hall of Fame coaching career -- would be over.

Los Angeles Clippers

Record

27-55

Chances

89

1st Pick

8.9%

2nd Pick

9.8%

3rd Pick

10.8%

In Donald World, this would be the perfect scenario. He would get to rent a young phenom for five years, thus filling his seats at Staples, with no intention of re-signing him later because, well, hey, another LeBron could come along at any time.

Of course, the fact that it would stunt James' growth and sour him on the NBA does not really matter. All that matters is that you would trot James out with Chris Wilcox, Melvin Ely, Marko Jaric and any other young stud that the Clips want to groom for the remainder of the league to fight over when they become free agents.

In Donald World, James would be such a publicity coup that nobody would really notice when the Clips allowed Elton Brand, Lamar Odom and Andre Miller to walk for nothing, enabling The Donald to save millions in salary.

Memphis Grizzlies

Record

28-54

Chances

64

1st Pick

6.4%

2nd Pick

7.2%

3rd Pick

8.2%

Wouldn't it be ironic if Jerry West traded his first-round draft pick last season (Drew Gooden), as well as one of his "discoveries," Gordon Giricek, for a true small forward (Mike Miller), only to get the small forward of the future in the draft?

One thing is for sure: The Grizzlies would not rush Miller back from injury. A young nucleus of James, Pau Gasol, Miller, Shane Battier and possibly Michael Dickerson, coupled with the Grizzlies' ultimate move to the East, could make them a playoff team for a very long time -- though still a bit undersized.

In addition, it would make up for the NBA's boneheaded decision to prohibit Vancouver and Toronto from getting a top-three pick their first few years in the league, thus sending British Columbians back to hockey. And getting James would help Memphis fill its new arena.

Chicago Bulls

Record

30-52

Chances

44

1st Pick

4.4%

2nd Pick

5.0%

3rd Pick

5.9%

Time for another statue.

Rebuilding has been going so slowly in Chicago, if the Bulls get James, they're apt to erect his statue before he ever plays a game. Yes, the comparisons to Michael Jordan would be endless. The most obvious difference between James and Jordan is their body type. James is a solid 6-8, 240.

"He's got a five-year NBA body, right now,'' said Nets president Rod Thorn. Jordan wasn't that developed at the same age. James' arrival could mean some headaches for new Bulls GM John Paxson.

"You've got all these young guys who think they're the cornerstone," said one executive. "Now you've got LeBron walking into that. That means a lot of friction, with guys like(Jalen) Rose and (Jay) Williams and (Tyson) Chandler."

In a dressing room that wasn't very harmonious to begin with.

The most pressure will be on Bill Cartwright, who will need to have his team in the playoff hunt at the All-Star break. Otherwise, he'll be out and the list of coaches who would want his job will run from Chicago to Akron.

Atlanta Hawks

Record

35-47

Chances

29

1st Pick

2.9%

2nd Pick

3.4%

3rd Pick

4.0%

Get ready for Human Highlight Film II.

They haven't had anyone in Atlanta this exciting since Dominique Wilkins played for the Hawks. They've never been a great draw, even in Wilkins' prime, but James would bolster attendance figures that dipped under 13,000 per game (12,894) last season. He'd be the Hawks' answer to Michael Vick.

On the court, new ownership would be smart to get rid of Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Glenn Robinson and Jason Terry. "All those guys need to dominate the ball; he wouldn't mix with them at all,'' said one scout. "LeBron is the kind of player where you want to start from scratch and build around him."

That's good in theory, but nobody wanted any of the three aforementioned Hawks vets when they were shopped last winter. Why would they now?

New York Knicks

Record

37-45

Chances

15

1st Pick

1.5%

2nd Pick

1.8%

3rd Pick

2.1%

We can already hear the cries, from Cleveland to Denver, and every NBA stop in-between:

"Fix, fix!"

To get James, the Knicks would have to win the lottery. Now what are the chances of that happening?

No, we're being dead serious here.

While everyone in Cleveland probably think James has already been ticketed for a long career with the Knicks -- it's a slam dunk that the NBA would just love to have its newest star in the league's No. 1 market, right? -- New York didn't help its cause by winning 37 games. The Knicks have only the ninth-best chance to get the kind of player who would finally fill the considerable void left by Patrick Ewing's departure.

Ownership refuses to rebuild, making the future bleak. But with James' arrival, they wouldn't have to. He seems mature enough to handle the rigors of playing in the Big Apple, where he'd immediately become a mega-star and a staple on the gossip pages of the tabloids. But this is not a great fit with this particular team.

"New York doesn't like to run, and he's at his best when he's running up and down the court, using that great athleticism of his,'' said one Eastern Conference exec. "It would be a clash of styles."

But he'd still be a god-send to fans who have been waiting for someone with his athleticism and skills to call the Garden home. If he plays the point, the Knicks would have a monster backcourt, with Allan Houston. There'd be growing pains, however. James would have to learn how to run an offense with a shot clock, and how to deliver the ball to Houston and Latrell Sprewell. However long that would take, you'd get no complaints from Knicks fans.

Only from the rest of the league.

Washington Wizards

Record

37-45

Chances

14

1st Pick

1.4%

2nd Pick

1.7%

3rd Pick

2.0%

Michael who?

If the Wizards get lucky, that Jordan guy would be quickly forgotten, if he hasn't been already. David Stern was unsuccessful in getting Jordan to remain as the top basketball man in D.C., where the franchise got a much-needed shot in the arm with his presence. Having James play there would mean that the Wiz still will matter as an NBA team.

Instead of Jordan jerseys, there would be a run on James' jerseys. They missed with Kwame Brown, their last No. 1 pick overall (2001), but James would more than make up for that.

Who's the coach going to be? Don't be surprised if John Lucas' name surfaces. He has a good relationship with James from his days in Cleveland, when he had LeBron work out with the Cavs. Illegally, of course. Lucas got busted for that, but he scored points with James.

The Wiz are not a great team to walk into. Larry Hughes, who fell out of favor with Jordan, wants more playing time. Jerry Stackhouse wants the ball. And the frontcourt deficiencies still need to be addressed.

Golden State Warriors

Record

38-44

Chances

7

1st Pick

0.7%

2nd Pick

0.8%

3rd Pick

1.0%

A team whose long-term bad fortune turned to optimism this past season could use the infusion of James, if for no other reason than to gain national recognition; the Warriors are a team that for good reason has been forgotten about for a long time.

On the court, it seems the question would be if James could convert to a shooting guard position. New coach Eric Musselman last season played Troy Murphy and Antawn Jamison in a sort of high-post, low-post tandem, with the two often switching positions on the floor to get Jamison closer to the basket, where he is more comfortable with his unique shots. Musselman did it seamlessly by benching Danny Fortson. Musselman and GM Garry St. Jean would have to figure out some personnel reconfiguring if James were to be added, because the Warriors need more help in the backcourt than they do in the front court, especially with Mike Dunleavy playing well in the final two months of the season.

Depending on what happens with point guard Gilbert Arenas, perhaps Murphy and Fortson could be packaged in a sign-and-trade for Andre Miller. Or, what if Gary Payton wanted to come home? The Bucks are always in need of help up front.

Seattle Supersonics

Record

40-42

Chances

6

1st Pick

0.6%

2nd Pick

0.7%

3rd Pick

0.9%

Privately, the Sonics are hoping they don't get the top pick in the draft. They ridded themselves of both Gary Payton and Vin Baker, which ended the Sonics' frosty relationship with agent Aaron Goodwin. To get No. 1, and feel the pressure of having to pick James, would ensure a long-term relationship with Goodwin that at the end of Payton's stay had become unbearable for both sides. And if the Sonics took James, it would add a further bottleneck at a position that already is jammed full.

Rashard Lewis currently resides at small forward with a $60 million contract, and last season took another small step toward becoming a force. The Sonics will say that Vladimir Radmanovic is a power forward, but he really is a small forward playing out of position. To add James would only further create a problem for a team that needs Darko Milicic much more than it does another mid-sized forward.

Plus, to have King James alongside Jerome James, a former King, is too much for one team to comtemplate.

Houston Rockets

Record

40-42

Chances

6

1st Pick

0.5%

2nd Pick

0.6%

3rd Pick

0.7%

Even if one of the five ping-pong balls assigned to the Rockets is chosen, they won't be picking James. Houston must send its first-round pick to Memphis. The Grizzlies must hope lightning stricks twice in two years for James to land in their laps.