My pre-training camp Hawks analysis

[KB21]

The summer leagues are about to start, and it won't be long at all before training camp for the Atlanta Hawks will start. I want to take this time out to break down the Hawks, position by position and make a few suppositions on what I think will happen.

POINT GUARD:

Jason Terry is definately going to be the starting point guard this year, and if he becomes an all star or puts up a 20 ppg/8 apg season like I think he can, he will be the Hawks point guard for a long time to come. Dan Dickau was drafted to back up JT at this point, with an eye towards the future just in case JT doesn't do as well at the point guard position as the Hawks want. Emanuel Davis just had his playing time severely decreased and could have his roster spot taken by a younger player that will play in the summer league for the Hawks.

I really feel that Jason Terry will be the long term point guard for this team after this season, and the brilliant move in drafting Dan Dickau will give the Hawks a starting caliber point guard to back Jason Terry up. Within 3 years, the Hawks may be able to trade Dickau to a team that will start him for some high draft picks or a need player at that point. Emanuel Davis will be bought out of his last year.

SHOOTING GUARD:

This is the position that I feel will see the most change. Pete Babcock is stating that he still wants to add size to the backcourt, and with both Terry and Dickau at the point guard spot, the shooting guard position has to be the position he is talking about. DerMarr Johnson can play this position, but I feel his long term position will be at small forward. Dion Glover could have this spot this year if he works hard, but I feel a deal for a shooting guard is on the horizon. The Hawks will go into the season with someone like Mike Miller or Michael Dickerson at shooting guard with Dion Glover backing them up and providing instant offense off the bench. Jason Terry will continue to see some time at this position as well.

SMALL FORWARD:

This was supposed to be Toni Kukoc's last season, but injuries and inconsistent play put him on the bench. I feel Kukoc will be involved in a deal that brings the Hawks a shooting guard. This position became Ira Newble's after the All-Star break due to his effort and his defensive intensity. The Hawks want him back, and he will make an excellent back up player. This position will be DerMarr Johnson's, IMO. He is reportedly adding size, and with the added size, he should be able to handle the rigors of playing small forward over a period of time. The position looks to be in good hands for the future, which is why the Hawks didn't look at many small forward prospects in the draft.

POWER FORWARD:

Shareef Abdur-Rahim is the Hawks go-to guy early in the game. He is a tough match up for other power forwards due to his quickness and athleticism, but he is a bit undersized and suffers a bit defensively because of this. Still, he is Atlanta's best all around player offensively and defensively as he lead the Hawks in most categories. Alan Henderson is currently the back up, but he has an undesirable contract and doesn't appear to want to be in Atlanta at this point in his career. If the Hawks could put him in a package trade, they would, but it will be difficult. A sleeper at this position could be undrafted rookie Udonis Haslem, who would offer a nice contrast to Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Nazr Mohammed will likely be the guy that rests Shareef throughout the season if he isn't traded in a deal to get Mike Miller.

CENTER:

Will Theo Ratliff finally get to play as an Atlanta Hawk? Who knows. He certainly hasn't proven to be a reliable player, but if healthy, he is the key to the entire defense. Nazr Mohammed is an average starter who has proven to be a very capable back up over the last couple of years. It is unlikely that he will be traded, but there is some talk of it. If he is dealt, undrafted rookie Chris Christofferson could make the team and give the team a legitimate 7 footer with size. Leon Smith has potential, but I feel he is a long shot to make the team at this point if everyone stays healthy.

[Admin]

Very nice post KB. Have you heard anything about Christofferson being invited to camp by us or anything? I like his size, but thats really about all he offers. I think that you may be underestimating Leon though. He has put up great numbers everywhere in his lifetime, and if he can adjust to the NBA game, which I think he will........we will have a steal with him. The best thing that we can do now is hope that Grant Hill comes back close to 100% so that the Magic will be willing to deal Miller.

[jaywalker72]

Nice job and breakdown....I hope that whatever we do in terms of roster will get done in time for us to get it going before the season starts...

Last year, I think we were hurt by constant tinkering....a problem I hope won't happen again...

[kelston827]

I think JT is without a doubt the Hawks' present/future PGs. All the talk after the draft about how Pete had sealed JT's/DJ's/Dion's and everyone else's fate by drafting Dickau was rubbish. I think Dickau will put up solid first-year numbers and be a decent contributor for a rookie, but at no time did I ever feel he would bump a 19/7 PG from his position.

I also agree that a deal will be made before the season starts. The deal that makes the most sense (and the one that could logically happen and is not just a fantasy trade) is one for Mike Miller. They have what we want, we have what they want. Nazr's BYC status mucks things up a bit, but if Pete and Gabriel want to get it done they will.

I think if a trade is going to get done then it will have to involve either Nazr or DJ. We won't trade JT/SAR/Theo/DD, no one wants Hendu/CC/Email, we wouldn't get squat in return for Ira/Leon and possibly someone would want Toni, but that would probably have to be part of a larger deal, which I don't see happening. And since a don't see us trading DJ, Nazr draws the shortest straw.

There's plenty of teams out there looking for a serviceable big man with a reasonable contract. And I honestly don't think you can get better value for your big man dollar than Nazr.

So the only question is, who is he going to bring in??

[Dickau12]

I agree with ya dolf. I like Leon very much. I think if he has a good summer league that would be a big step forward for his career. I just hope Hawks really make an effort to help him this sumer. I was very disappointed in Hawks last few games of season. I felt they should have given him alot more playing time in the last 2 or 3 games.

My summer wish is to somehow acquire Mike Miller. He would for sure give us some much need size at the 2G. With Miller, JT,Dickau, & DerMarr that would give us some serious deep ball threat.

[Admin]

Personally I am glad that we didnt give Leon more time to play. I think the team was very smart for a couple of reasons to not do that. First off, we didnt want to showcase his talent at this level against other teams, in case he looked too good some team may try and make us give him up in a deal. Secondly, and equally as important I dont think we wanted to hurt his confidence by playing him when he really wasnt prepared to play big minutes. We really need to coddle him and see if we can find a gem.

[KB21]

IMO, a red flag went up on Leon when Pete mentioned in an ask the GM article that Leon had only had a few setbacks this offseason.

There are a lot of players that Pete has talked about in glowing terms, and it didn't seem like he was speaking to glowingly of Leon at that time.

[Dickau12]

Dolf I never thought about it that way. Being as young as he is surely another team may have wanted him if he had blossomed last year. I Met him this past year and he is a great kid. I would like to see someone like JT or Shareef time him under their wing. I know for sure, 'Nique would be a great model for Leon. But that of course is only if the Hawks gave 'Nique a little more respect and got him into coaching.

[ATLien_]

Hey Dolfan did you see the game when they put Leon in and somone bricked a shot, and he went up and caught it off the rim and slammed it with one hand? 6-11 guys that are thick don't do that everyday. I can not wait to get Leon on the court.