Anyone else think Johan Santana is overrated?

[Admin]

I realize that he is among the better pitchers in the league, but he gives up a TON of HRs and if he didn't have such good defensive players behind him his ERA would be even higher than it is. It seems like Santana is seen as the best pitcher in baseball but I just don't think that he is. I think that if/when he leaves Minnesota he is going to get exposed, unless he goes to a team with a great defense and a pitchers park.

[Guest]

What does it matter about home runs? He generally gives up Solo homers which means he is willing to attack the hitter when no one is on-base and seems to buckle down when there are runners on base. Curt Schilling led the league in home runs one in Arizona a few times and I believe he came top 3 in the Cy Young each time. Home runs don't bother me for a pitcher unless it is a lot of 2 or 3 run homers.

[AHF]

I think he is the best in baseball and definitely not merely a creation of a favorable home park.

2004 Road Stats

9-2 2.58 ERA .93 WHIP 98K 23BB

2005 Road Stats

10-3 2.93 ERA 1.05 WHIP 104K 22BB

2006 Road Stats

7-6 3.38 ERA 1.01 WHIP 116K 25BB

2007 Road Stats

10-4 2.95 ERA 1.08 WHIP 119K 30BB

Pretty consistent and outstanding numbers. I am not sure who else you have in mind who matches that pedigree. His HR numbers are higher than some pitchers but are balanced by the fact that he allows such a small % of players on base.

Even someone like Jake Peavy has put up a rough year or so during that time (for him, 2006 with a 4.57 Road ERA).

[Admin]

I think a huge part of his success has been the team defense and I think that if he goes to a team like the Yankees (and I really hope that doesn't happen) then he will get exposed because those solo shots will start becoming 2-3 run shots. I still think he is a very good pitcher, but I don't think he is worth the package of prospects and salary that it will take to get him. I don't believe he is anywhere near the pitcher that Josh Beckett is. I don't believe he is close to the pitcher that Randy Johnson used to be.

[AHF]

I am less impressed by Beckett. In fact, I am willing to say right now that Johan will not have an ERA over 5.00 like Beckett did recently even if he goes to the most ham-handed squad in the majors.

There are two notable things that have nothing to do with defense which are HRs and walks. Beckett walks twice as many people as Johan and he is the one with the highest season HR total between the two.

All that said, mortgaging the farm for a star in baseball and paying them a ton of salary doesn't work like it does in basketball. Seattle was a decent team with three immortals on their roster when ARod, Randy and Ken Griffey Jr. were all on that team. A star only gets you so far in baseball and you are better off putting together a total team than investing in a single stud.

[Admin]

that he has reportedly been traded to the Mets. I for one am damn happy that the Yankees didn't give up our good young pitchers for him. He should be able to have some success in the NL without a DH.

[AHF]

Quote:

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He should be able to have some success in the NL without a DH.

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I think he would have some success no matter where he went, but this is not good news for the Braves in the short-term. This definitely raises the Mets up a level in 2008, although it will be interesting to see if the prospects they lost end up doing more for Minny than Santana would have this year.

[Admin]

I think that's usually the case. I am not too familiar with the prospects that the Mets other than Gomez and Humber but if they are anything like what they were asking the Yankees and Red Sox for them I have a feeling the Twins will definitely win this deal in the long run.

I am just happy that I can finally relax knowing that Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy won't be traded.

Definitely not good news for the Braves in the short term.

[chillzatl]

It'll be interesting to see how he handles the pressures of New York. Let him lose two in a row and hear the boo's and read the headlines.. then we'll now if he's world class or not.