Did we all miss something??????

[GoDawgs21]

So the guys in Vegas are usually really good at being right around the final outcomes. Well "if gambling were legal" I went to hypothetically see what a point spread might be, and was stumped.

I know the Lakers record is what it is, and we aren't a road team. The Hawks however have played very well against the West, including just beating said Lakers less then two weeks ago.

Add Kobe's hurt finger in which he took 0 shots in the All-Star game. Not to mention how upbeat our team should be after gaining a point guard.

In saying all this can someone point me to the kool-aid that made us an 11 point dog tonight?????????

Just curious.

[AnakinJoe]

4 game losing streak.

Lakers home after very, very long road trip (home cooking).

We suck on the road.

Gasol's first game in Los Angeles.

Woody is our coach.

Thin bench.

New PG (poor chemistry likely in first few games).

They have Kobe/Gasol and we don't.

They have Phil Jackson and we have Mike Woodson.

[swolehawk2]

That'll do it!

[GoDawgs21]

I realize all that you stated. But add that with what I put up.

I guess you may not bet that much, or look at lines. But do you realize how absurd 11 points are????? On most nights a normal spread is between 3-7 points depending on match ups. Most nights there isn't even a line over 10. We were still only 8 point dogs at Phoniex.

My point was with all the hype regarding the trade etc, we were -2.5 point favorites at home vs the Lakers. Now after the trade we are +11?????? I know it's on the road. But with Kobe hurt and both teams rested. I was expecting 6 or 7.

To give you some perspective of how absurd it is.

Tonight there are 10 games in the NBA. ONLY 2 are over 10 point spreads.

Char. @ SA, SA being -10.5. So your saying that we are likely to lose by more then the Bobcats who are awful, at the defending Champs??????????

Not saying we win. Just trying to understand were Vegas is coming from. We have all the hype form the trade etc. and we are supposed to take the worst beating of any team tonight. It could happen don't get me wrong, just trying to see what they saw that we missed.

Just to get perspective on the other games (all lines are shown for home team)

NYK @ Was -6.5

Hou@ Cle -1

Orl @ Det -6.5

Phi @ Min +3

Char @ SA -10.5

Bos @ Den (even)

GS @ Utah -6.5

Sac @ Por -4.5

Mem @ Sea -5.5

Atl @ LAL -11

So there are two games even close to double figure spreads. One being the 3rd worst team in the NBA vs the NBA Champs, and our game.

So my question still is, do we still look that bad to others??????

[swolehawk2]

Uhhhhh....we just lost to the awful bobcats, without Gerald Wallace.

[GoDawgs21]

I get that I am not saying win or lose, its about covering the spreads.

What I am saying is why are being looked at so poorly?

If I walked up to you today and said which game would be closer in a final outcome: Charlotte vs San Antonio or Atlanta vs LA. Which one would this entire board have said???

Everyone is hyping and getting excited for this game waiting to see our turn around.

My point is before we get all excited and worked up, what if the experts are right? We come out and get trashed. What will this board be like tomorrow?

I still am looking for a close game, but appreantly those outside of Hawks land and those that do this for a living think this is the biggest mismatch of the night. So my question remains what are we missing??

[swolehawk2]

I wouldn't be suprised if we lost by 10....I don't this team will turnaround overnight.

But I expect this team to be hummin (barring injuries) last part of March and in to April.

[AnakinJoe]

Looks like the 2 games that pit a dominant Western Conference power against a sub-par Eastern Conference opponent are both double-digit spreads. Makes sense to me. I'm guessing that someone in Vegas has analyzed point spreads on contests involving comparable teams.

Lakers acquired Gasol to make a big playoff run. And that essentially starts tonight, at home, against a team on a 4 game losing streak. And I'm guessing that Vegas does not expect Bibby to make an immediate impact, given his lack of familiarity with his teammates and his own recovery issues from his injury. Essentially, the Hawks are in ramp-up mode against a powerhouse returning from a long road trip.

But hey, it's not my money.

[GoDawgs21]

Oh I can't ever bet on home town teams, to much heartache and frustration.

My point I was trying to make was in my last post.

Everyone on here is excited after the trade. People talking of taping the game, praying it's on NBA League Pass. So what if we come out and lay an egg? There are so many chicken littles on here that take each game as a mission statement. That was why I brought it up. All the Squawkers are so upbeat and ready for tonight, we come out and lose by dobule digits, what happens here tomorrow. Hence the title "Did we miss something?"

I was just excited about tonights game, and wanted another perspective. More times then not the experts are right on the money, its rather creepy sometimes. So that was my question. What happens in Hawkland if we get smoked tongiht with everyone's expectations.

[Lascar78]

A) Betting on the line on regular season NBA games is one of the most retarded bets in all of sports.

B) That line seems about right. We are pretty horrible on the road and Woody is still our coach.

C) This might be the most important point. The line is not there to be the oddsmaker's best guess of the final result. It is where they have to put the line to try to get an equal amount of bets on both sides. If they get equal bets on both sides they have zero risk and they get automatic profit on the extra 10% they get from the losers. I'm a hawks fan and I wouldn't bet any real money that we lose by less than 11. I think we probably should, but we could easily lose by 15+. All it would take is a couple of quick fouls on Al really.

[Lascar78]

LOL

[Plainview1981]

Now you see why.

[GoDawgs21]

Quote:

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What I am saying is why are being looked at so poorly?

Everyone is hyping and getting excited for this game waiting to see our turn around.

My point is before we get all excited and worked up, what if the experts are right? We come out and get trashed. What will this board be like tomorrow?

I still am looking for a close game, but appreantly those outside of Hawks land and those that do this for a living think this is the biggest mismatch of the night. So my question remains what are we missing??

clearly you missed the entire point of my post, as usual.

My point was the guys in Vegas are usually right on about games. I never said I was looking to or betting on the game. I said I went to see what others were viewing our new lineup as.

My direct quote was EVERYONE IS EXCITED ABOUT THIS GAME, but ARE WE MISSING THE FACT THAT PEOPLE OUTSIDE OF HERE ARE STILL DOUBTING US. SO WHERE WILL ALL THIS OPTIMISM GO IF WE DO LOSE BY DOUBLE DIGITS.

[GoDawgs21]

Do we all need reading comprehension classes?

My point of the thread was the lines are right, and so what are missing that is causing us to be the biggest mismatch of the night?

My question was not questioning the line, but questioning all the optimism and if it was just or unjust and what will all the chicken littles do if we do lose by that margin.