Tuesday Insider

[Admin]

With the NBA free-agent season moving ahead at a glacial place, Insider spent the last few days talking with several general managers and league executives about the sudden economic frugality around the league, and the question that is on most people's minds this time of year is who will be getting the max this summer?

The answer to that question affects just about every team. When a watershed event happens, Kevin Garnett's $126 million contract to Malik Rose's $42 million deal this summer, it sends shock waves throughout the league. Player agents like to use comparisons that work in their favor. Lon Babby used Jerome Williams' $42 million deal with Toronto last year to justify his contract demands for Rose to the Spurs.

They also love to use "averages" for players who play the same position. The average player salary is $4.7 million next year, but the average varies widely by position. That's why players such as Calvin Booth and Todd MacCulloch last year, and Jerome James and Rasho Nesterovic this year can expect big paydays. The average salary for a starting center in the league for the 2002-03 season is $7,537,484. That's huge. But here's where it gets ridiculous. The average salary for a non-starting center this year is a whopping $5,100,967.

Just to keep those numbers in perspective, consider this. Of the 29 starters at the center position, the only two centers making less than $4 million a season that weren't still locked into the rookie salary scale were Jerome James and Jake Voskuhl. There were 10 centers who did not start for their teams making more than the $4.5 mid level exception.

Power forwards fared even better. The average salary for a starting power forward in the league for the 2002-03 season is $8,271,535. The only two starters making under the $4.5 mid level exception who aren't still locked into the rookie salary scale this season are Horace Grant and Samaki Walker. Non starters did fare too badly either, pulling down an average $5,424,015 a year.

It goes down from there. Starting small forwards will average $6,433,918 next season. Backups will average $4,738,563. Starting shooting guards will average $5,991,818. Their backups will pull down $4,062,971. Starting point guards will average $5,599,859. Their backups are the minimum wage workers of the NBA grabbing a paltry $3,928,590.

Who said size doesn't matter? Obviously, position has its privileges.

Those figures really highlight when NBA owners have misused the max contract in the past. There really should be only two scenarios in which players command max deals.

First, they are dominant players at their position. They must be young, not prone to injury and, with the exception of centers, able to play multiple positions.Think Shaq, Kobe, Tim Duncan, Chris Webber, Tracy McGrady, Dirk Nowitzki. Those are max players.

No offense, but Antawn Jamison, Keith Van Horn, Stephon Marbury, Damon Stoudamire, Tom Gugliotta, Vin Baker, Juwan Howard, Michael Finley, Allan Houston, Antonio Davis, Eddie Jones and Brian Grant are not. They weren't max players when they signed their deals and they aren't now.

Second, players get the max when the supply and demand at a particular position makes a promising player close to irreplaceable. Only big, athletic centers and power forwards really fit into this position. Teams will always over pay a little for size because centers just don't come along that often.

That's why you can forgive the Cavs for throwing the max Zydrunas Ilgauskas' way. And that's why you can forgive the Clippers for throwing the bank at Olowokandi this summer.

Insider polled six league executives about the contract demands of four prominent free agents this year and another six prominent members of the draft class of 1999. Who should get the max? Here's what they said.

Free-agents

1. Michael Olowokandi -- Consensus: the max

We'll pause while Elgin Baylor revives Donald Sterling. While every source Insider talked to agreed that Olowokandi is still a project, they felt that given the dearth of big, athletic true centers in the league, Olowokandi was worth every penny. Given that the average salary for a starting center already starts at $7.5 million, Olowkandi's contract demands (a max deal would start him at about $10 million this season) aren't that ridiculous.

"Of all the guys on the Clippers, he's the player we all covet," one league executive told Insider. "He's still raw, but you see him improving every season. You're always a little concerned when you see a guy make a huge jump in his play during a contract year, but Michael's combination of power, athleticism and size doesn't come along very often. If he played on a team that featured him more in the offense, I think he'd be an All-Star."

Another GM put it more bluntly. "If the Clippers screw this up and he becomes an unrestricted free agent, barring some sort of injury or atrocious season, he'll get max offers from several teams."

2. Mike Bibby -- Consensus: 6 years, $70 million

Bibby probably added another $30 to $40 million to his contract during the playoffs, when he showed management that he, not Chris Webber, was the team's go-to guy in the clutch. His playoff averages of 20.2 ppg, 5 apg and 3.8 rpg are the numbers of a max point guard. His regular-season numbers, 13.7 ppg, 5 apg, 2.8 rpg really weren't. The only question on anyone's mind was, what took him so long. In the end, only two of the six people Insider polled thought Bibby was worthy of the max. But every source came in with a very high number.

"I always thought Bibby had the potential to be the leader he was during the Kings' playoff run," another team executive said. "I just wonder why he didn't always show that during the regular season. Bibby still has some issues with his game. I'm not sure, in the end, that he's a max player. I don't know that he'll ever be dominant the way Jason Kidd and Gary Payton are. And I don't know that he'll ever have the impact that a player like Steve Francis or Baron Davis will. But, he's very, very good."

3. Raef LaFrentz -- Consensus: 6 years, $60 million

Like Olowokandi, LaFrentz is still a bit of an enigma. He's a stellar shot blocker (he ranked second in the NBA last season), has a great outside touch for a big man, but his effort has always been inconsistent. In the Mavs' playoff series versus the Kings he had one stellar 24-point, 13-rebound game sandwiched in between a couple of three-point, six-rebound and a seven-point, eight-rebound stinkers. In the end, however, it's LaFrentz's size that tips the scale toward the max.

"He's even a bigger question mark than Olowokandi," one team exec said. "I just don't see the upside to LaFrentz that I do to Kandi. He's a solid shot blocker and I like the way he can pull his defender away from the basket. But he disappears for long stretches and just doesn't have the game to be a go-to guy. Don't get me wrong, someone will throw the bank at him, but he'll never have the impact to warrant the contract."

4. Rashard Lewis -- Consensus: 6 years, $60 million

Lewis has tantalizing skills, but are they worth the max. Not one of the six team executives Insider spoke with thought Lewis was worth the max. Several of them thought he was vastly overrated, while others thought he'd blossom outside the shadow of Gary Payton.

"I like him a lot, probably more than most of my peers," another GM said. "He's long, athletic and can really shoot the ball. I know there are questions about his ball handling and his leadership capabilities, but I think he's the perfect complement for a team that already has an established star or two. I think his versatility and willingness to do anything for the team will get someone to bite."

Eligible for contract extensions

1. Elton Brand -- Consensus: 6 years, $70 million

It shouldn't come as any surprise that after averaging a double-double for his career, there are still people out there who doubt Elton Brand. While it's difficult to argue with his numbers, and it's becoming tougher to knock his record after what he did in Los Angeles this year, teams are still leery of giving an undersized four the max.

"Is he a dominant player at his position?" one team executive queried. "Yes and no. Anyone who can average a double double is dominant. There just aren't many players who can do it. Brand's consistency and character also both work in his favor. But does he have the ability to take over a game. I've watched him play a lot and I haven't seen it. I don't think he's irreplaceable."

2. Steve Francis -- Consensus: the max

The Rockets and Stevie Franchise are already discussing a maximum contract that will keep him around Houston for a long time. It's Francis' ability to play multiple positions, his amazing rebounding tenacity for a point guard and his overall toughness that push him into max land. The only caveat, and it was a small one, was growing concern over a rash of migraine headaches that crippled Francis through parts of the season. Those type of ailments always send up red flags when you begin discussion a big extension, but the Rockets don't seem overly worried about it.

"He's a different breed of point guard than guys like Kidd or [John] Stockton," one GM said. "But he can be just as effective. He's a great penetrator and plays the game at a breakneck pace. When he's on his game, he's the best player on the floor and that, I think, is what being a make player is all about."

3. Baron Davis -- Consensus: the max

Like Francis, it's Davis' ability to score and lead a team that have team enamored with him. How good is Davis' position at the moment. The Hornets are offering him the max contract extension and he's refusing to sign, instead hoping to be traded to the west coast.

"He's a little bit better play maker than Francis and his athleticism is just off the charts," another team executive remarked. "I like his ability to shoot the three, make things happen off the break or hit the big shot with the game on the line. There isn't much more to say other than he's really, really good."

4. Wally Szczerbiak -- Consensus: 6 years, $50 million

Szczerbiak's agent recently claimed that Szczerbiak would seek a maximum contract extension which surely had the T-Wolves rolling their eyes. While few GM's doubt his ability to score 30 ppg game if he wanted, basketball is a team sport and Wally has yet to prove that he's figured that out.

"He could easily score 30 a game, but he'd give up 40 in the process," commented one GM. "Wally's the type of guy that GMs sometimes make mistakes on. He does one thing really well, score. But his game is lacking in lots of other areas. I always try to stray away from giving big money to one dimensional players. They lock you in financially, but don't give you the flexibility to move them around as you try to add other players to the squad."

5. Andre Miller -- Consensus: 6 years, $70 million

Miller may be one of the brightest young point guards in the game, but he's been buried an a woeful team his entire career and can't quite seem to shake the knock that he isn't a winner. That's just silly. Anyone who can lead the league in assists on a team as bad as the Cavs will make any team better. But try telling that to the Cavs, who are still trying their best to ship Miller out of town before they have to write him a big check.

"I understand Cleveland's position," one team executive said. "I don't agree with it, but I understand it. Good point guards who play the game the right way are hard to come by. I know he isn't a great scorer or shooter, but like Kidd, I think he elevates the level of play for everyone. If he gets with a decent team, I think he'll be a 10 time All-Star before his career's up. Why don't the Cavs surround him players who can put the ball in the basket. They can point the finger at Andre all they want, but I'm pretty sure he didn't draft Trajan Langdon, Chris Mihm and DeSagana Diop."

6. Shawn Marion -- Consensus: the max

The matrix is one of those versatile freaks of nature who transcends position. He's one of the best rebounding small forwards in the league, is young athletic and has all the makings of a star. The Suns would love to hang on to him, but sources close to Marion say he's reluctant to commit to a long-term deal with the team now in rebuilding mode.

"He's another guy who uses his versatility to his advantage," one GM commented. "He works so hard on the boards that he allows you to do different things up front. If he doesn't re-sign with Phoenix he'll be a huge commodity in a couple of years."

Pistons get to the point with Billups

It looks like the second major free agent contract of the summer, and the first major defection, was close to wrapping up Monday evening.

Both the Detroit News and the Detroit Free Press are reporting that T-Wolves point guard Chauncey Billups has come to terms with the Pistons on a deal that will pay him $35 million over the next six years.

Andy Miller, Billups' agents, told the T-Wolves Monday that Billups would not return. When asked if the Timberwolves made a counter offer, Miller told the Detroit News, "I was not looking for a counter."

"I am not going to discuss anything about a deal, but I will say Chauncey's visit with Detroit was productive and he felt very comfortable with Detroit," Miller said. "Chauncey went into this with a very definite set of criteria for both himself and the teams that were interested in him. Thus far, Detroit is filling each one of his criteria very comfortably. The process is going along very smoothly."

"We've watched a lot of tape on him; a lot of tape," Pistons team president Joe Dumars told the Free Press. "We like his size and composure. In the 54 games he started, he averaged about 15.5 points and a little less than seven assists. He had a huge playoff series against Dallas and Steve Nash. If you looked at him, he's a big, physical guard."

The signing will likely mean that starting point guard Chucky Atkins will now be relegated to a backup role. Atkins said that the move is fine with him.

"This makes us better," said Atkins, who is not on the summer-league roster but lives in Orlando and was visiting the team Monday. "Whatever we have to do to make it to the Finals, that's what I want. . .Management felt we needed to get stronger at the point, and they were able to get another guy who can play. That's what happened. I just have to deal with it and be prepared to play."

Billups expected to sign for 6 years,$35 million

Chris McCosky / Detroit News

Billups likely to sign with Pistons

Chip Scoggins / Minneapolis Star Tribune

Knicks begin talks with Nesterovic

Brace yourself T-Wolves fans. Chauncey Billups may not be the only player you end up losing this summer.

The Knicks, in a desperate search for a free-agent center to replace Marcus Camby, have begun negotiations with T-Wolves big man Rasho Nesterovic.

Nesterovic's agent, Bill Duffy, told the N.Y. Times he would meet today with Knicks GM Scott Layden. Duffy said Nesterovic's interest in the Knicks was very strong and said "I think it's mutual."

There is, however, a silver lining. Because Nesterovic is a restricted free agent, the T-Wolves can match any offer the Knicks make. Sources have told Insider that the Wolves will match any offer for Nesterovic. Don't expect that to deter the Knicks. They could try to work out a sign-and-trade with Minnesota, once the free-agent signing period begins July 17. The Wolves, now in desperate need of a point guard, may have some interest in either Charlie Ward or Howard Eisley.

The N.Y. Daily News is reporting that Sonics big man Jerome James and Cavs big man Michael Doleac are more likely targets.

Knicks Sign N.B.A. Draft Pick

Liz Robbins / New York Times

Starved for Size, Knicks Seek Help

Frank Isola / New York Daily News

Clipps spin draft day debacle

The Clippers spent Monday trying to put spin some nasty draft night bungling that cost them Andre Miller.

GM Elgin Baylor finally got around to introducing Chris Wilcox and Melvin Ely, the Clipps' two lottery picks, to the media on Monday. According to Baylor, they were the two guys the Clipps wanted all along.

"I want to make one thing clear," Baylor said Monday at the press conference. "There were questions about a spur-of-the-moment deal, but when it came time for us to draft, these are the players we wanted to get. That's who we had on our board. We're happy to have them."

Maybe, but more and more evidence is piling in that the Clipps did their best to trade them on draft night. That's led to some pretty interesting spin when Alvin Gentry talked about how Wilcox and Ely will fit in an already crowded frontcourt that includes Elton Brand, Michael Olowokandi, Darius Miles and Lamar Odom.

"There's this misconception that we have all these big guys," Gentry said, referring to a logjam at power forward. "It gives us the opportunity to run guys in and out of the games. When you play Tim Duncan one night, Shaq [O'Neal] on another and then Chris Webber on another, you need big people."

When asked about finding sufficient playing time for all his forwards, Gentry said, "I don't mind having that problem. I would rather have guys upset about not playing than have guys content about just getting a paycheck."

Trade speculation continues to swirl around Odom, Wilcox, Ely and Corey Maggette. The Clipps have offered a combination of those players to New Orleans for Baron Davis and to the Cavs for Miller.

Clippers Introduce a Pair That Almost Got Aced Out

Elliott Teaford / Los Angeles Times

Clippers say they'll keep top two choices for a while

Joe Stevens / Los Angeles Daily News

Summer League Update

The Suns defeated the Grizzlies in the second day of summer league play. The Suns got strong performances from Jake Tsakalidis, who scored 18 points and pulled down nine boards, and rookie Amare Stoudemire, who put in 15 points and grabbed six boards. Second-year forward Alton Ford also had a strong game with 10 points and 13 boards.

Free agent Robert Connelly and rookie Drew Gooden led the way for the Grizzlies. Connelly scored 23 points and had three steals. Gooden scored 15 and pulled down seven rebounds.

Today, the Lakers play the Mavericks in an early game and then the Suns take on the Clippers in a late game.

The Orlando Summer Pro League also gets underway today. The Pistons take on the Hornets in the first game of the day. Then the Heat will play the Bucks. And finally, the Magic will take on the Pacers.

Check out Insider's Pro Summer League and Orlando Summer Pro League pages for rosters, leaders and box scores.

Peep Show

Wizards: The team is running into roadblocks in its efforts to re-sign free agent Popeye Jones. At least six teams have expressed interest in Jones, including the Lakers, Bulls and Knicks, the Washington Post reported. Serious talks between Jones and interested parties, including the Wizards, are expected to begin this week.

Bulls: The team is looking for a veteran mentor to replace Charles Oakley and may have found one in Danny Manning. The Bulls brought in Manning recently for a visit, the Chicago Sun Times reported. "One of the main reasons we're bringing some guys in for visits is to conduct physicals, because a lot of the guys we're looking at are far along in their careers," said Krause. "But as far as visits, a lot of the guys we're looking at already know us." In addition, the Bulls have discussed bringing in Washington's Popeye Jones, Denver's Scott Williams and Houston's Kevin Willis.

Nuggets: The team got some good news and some bad news Monday. Forward Nikoloz Tskitishvili should sign his rookie contract today, making him eligible for the Nuggets' summer league team, the Denver Post reported. However, the Nuggets other lottery pick, Nene Hilario, is still having trouble getting a release from his club in Brazil. Hilario and his club, Vasco de Gama, are heading to arbitration this month, but it likely won't be resolved in time for Hilario to play in the summer league. Nuggets GM Kiki Vandeweghe said he is optimistic something can be worked out, but it is not pivotal for Hilario to participate in the summer league. "He's going to be with us for a long time," Vandeweghe told the Rocky Mountain News.

Magic: It's an important time of the offseason for the Magic, who have vowed to have a more physical and athletic presence in the middle. If Stephen Hunter and Rashard Griffith don't play well this summer, big changes could be on the horizon. "We're not going to put all our stock in these workouts," GM John Gabriel told the Orlando Sentinel. "We have a good idea of what these players can do for us. We want to see where our guys are, and we also wouldn't rule out signing a player if we think he can help us."

Nets: Jason Kidd said he might withdraw from Team USA due to the length of the Nets' season, the N.Y. Post reported. He won't be the only Net skipping out of the championships. The plantar fasciaitis that plagued his left foot and kept him out of 20 regular-season games will also keep center Todd MacCulloch out of the Worlds. "In talking to management and the medical staff," MacCulloch said, "we all thought it best to rest it further and continue to do strengthening and stretching [exercises] for it. It's actually felt pretty good."

Sixers: Second-round pick Sam Clancy will sit out the rookie workouts and the Sixers' summer league while continuing to rehabilitate from a dislocated left kneecap, the Philadelphia Daily News reported.

Pacers: Newspaper reports in Italy say the Pacers are close to finalizing a three-year, $7 million contract with European star Gregor Fucka. Pacers team president Donnie Walsh said that's hardly the case. "This is all very, very premature," Walsh told the Indianapolis Star. "I've had preliminary conversations but we're nowhere close to a deal." Fucka, a 7-foot-1 swingman from Slovenia who turns 31 on Aug. 7, was widely considered the best player in Europe two years ago and has previously been pursued by NBA teams, but chose to stay in Europe.

[Hawksfreak]

Man i can't wait till the summer pro league starts we got some guys to look at on that team

[Guest]

[Traceman]

If Sczerbiak is worth 6 yrs/$50 million then I KNOW JT is worth somewhere in that neighborhood as well. With numbers being tossed around like this though, I see no way JT will get a max deal and that's not all bad. If we could get JT to agree to sign to a 6 yr/$50 million deal, I'd do it tomorrow.