THE HAWKS MUST MAKE SOME TRADES.....

[Diesel]

Salary dumps are not over.

I've been putting some things into the dieselputer and I have found that we MUST make some trades. I think that we MUST lowball Terry if he will be a Hawk next season.

Here's why....

1. Without Terry and with a 7 player roster next season, payroll will be up to 46.8 million dollars.

With the Lowest lowball figure I can come up with, that means that if we sign JT to a lowball contract and he's making about 5.5 million dollars then that means that about 52.3 Million dollars will be spent.

Now, for all of you who are proclaiming deals for DJ and Dion and Smitty.... How much are you talking?

Even if All three guys get a deal that will average 1 Million per year (which is unlikely). That's 3 million dollars and enough to put up slightly over the cap. Plus a first rounder which will be about 1.2 million dollar or higher...

in 2004-2005,

Do you see us winning anything of Significance with:

JT/DD

Glover/Diaw/ Smitty

DJ/Draft Pick/CC

SAR/Hendu

Theo/Nazr.

We would have to have some ofthe biggest turn around stories in the world just to get to the playoffs. And to think we'd be paying 56 Million dollars plus for this team.

Some trades have to be made.

[dj_me]

Why do you have DJ starting? I am almost certain that we will start Diaw. And, yes, if we got Glover back, and maybe DJ, then we're pretty set. I like (not love) the lineup. I believe that it will win us some games.

JT/DD

Glover/Hansen

Diaw/DJ/CC

SAR/Hendu

Theo/Nazr

That or subtract Glover and get S. Jackson.

JT/DD

Jackson/Hansen

Diaw/DJ/CC

SAR/Hendu

Theo/Nazr

And for our last roster spot, we could add someone from the NBDL. Stotts can find someone that will play well, just to play.

[Lascar78]

I agree. Diaw will be starting. He will be at SG or SF depending on the positions of the other players we pick up. I think we're at least as good as last year with the lineup you mentionned

JT/DD

Glover/Hansen

Diaw/DJ/CC

SAR/Hendu

Theo/Nazr

we're not winning the division, but we could possibly make the 8 spot in the playoffs. The flow of the game should be significantly better . I wish we could have kept newble, but oh well.

[RLHawk]

The thing you have to consider as you look toward next year is that there are 2 different caps. The salary cap (~43M) and the luxary tax line (~53M). When you refer to being over the cap, it means the salary cap. When you talk about the amount most teams do not want to spend, you are talking luxary tax.

The problem with the Hawks is that they are willing to spend up to the luxary cap, but want to rebuild. The catch in the NBA is that there are only 3 ways for you to increase your payroll over the salary cap. 1) re-sign your own players for more money (this also includes raises in current contracts) 2) sign and trade your free agents to other teams (taking back similar amounts of money) 3) using the mid-level exception (~4.5M). If the Hawks lowball Terry and say he gets 5.5 this year, we are sitting at ~47M (add about 15% next year).

You can dump salary all you want, but unless you are significantly under the salary cap (~43M), you can not sign free agents (significant ones). If the Hawks trade away our talent for merely expiring contracts (without getting talent in return) we will not lower our cap number enough to sign any of the available free agents. (you will need the nax contract space to sign them (~11M). The other option is to do a sign and trade, but you do not have enough talent left to work out that kind of deal, so really good players are out of reach.

Say we want Kobe (and he wants us). You have to figure out what kind of team you want to surround him by. Lets say we believe we can build around a team like:

DD

Kobe

Diaw

SAR

Nazr

Then that means that we have to have enough cap space to sign him (which we are about 17-20 million too high right now) or enough talent (at a cost of about 15M to trade for Kobe). Then you have to have the kind of talent that the Lakers want.

What we need to do is identify what they would want. Since they don't want to drop too far, they will need a young SG, someone to take over PG for Payton and a quality PF to take follow Carl. They need at least 1 big time scorer for when they loose Kobe, Carl and Payton.

Scenario #1

Lets say they would do a deal for Kobe:

Theo (for ending contract and PF/C duties behind Carl and Shaq)

Terry (to eventually replace Payton)

2 - #1 picks

(this is about 18M worth of trade)

Then we do not have to do anything right now (to dump salary or get talent). Unfortunately, I think they would want more than that though. We would really need to just look after us this year (maybe try to ensure a high level #1 pick to give up).

Scenario #2

We need to clear about 20M more in cap space.

Lets dump Theo to Memphis for Persons/Battier (team option)

Lets dump SAR to Utah for Keon Clark

This gives us a cap number next year of about 30M. That is roughly 15M under what will be the cap number next year.

We would play a lineup this year of:

JT/DD

Persons/Hansen

Battier/Diaw/CC

Keon Clark/Hendu

Nazr/Hendu

We will be painfully short on points, but Kobe should help us fix that the next year.

Summary

The basic reason we are dumping salary now is that we need to maintain a level of salary to avoid the luxary tax while looking for some wiggle room. We are not in a position to "go for it" right now. Maybe if we wait until after 2004/05.

[Diesel]

DJ Me... Diaw is an OG.. NOt a SF. I don't understand where you guys keep getting that thought. IN The NBA, he won't be. I just don't see it. I got DJ starting because:

1. DJ is better than CC.

2. DJ is probably better than whoever we draft.

3. Glover never plays well at SF (compared to SG).

I could put Smitty at Sf. It makes sense now.

[Diesel]

NO, I'm not saying that we need to dump salary to go after Free agents...

I'm saying that if we don't dump Salary, we will surely go over the Luxury tax Cap.

Without Terry and with a 7 player roster next season, payroll will be up to 46.8 million dollars. This is already over the salary cap and on it's way to the Luxury tax.

Add in Terry at 6.0 Mil (Your number) next year and you have: 52.8 Million or so dollars. That's at the Luxury tax. We have only 8 players on the roster. THEN... You add in a first round pick... That's about 1.2 or Higher added. We are now in the Luxury tax area. Every dollar we spend from this point on is DOUBLED and we have 3 more players to sign.

That's why Glover, JT, and co. has not been signed by the Hawks. We are probably looking to dump more salary for next year.

Easiest would be Nazr/CC to Memphis for Person/FIller. Or Nazr for BK.

However, that's just 5 million more off the Cap.

The problem becomes... After all these Salary DUmps... Are we still competitive. Do we even have a bench.

RIght now, we are on the frontiers of a rebuild.

No need in keeping a 14.6 and a 10.9 Million dollar player (next year) around if we will not be competing for a Championship? Especially when their salaries will run out the year after. Why hold up the inevitable.

[RLHawk]

I agree with you. There seems to be a lot of people talking about rebuilding and a lot of people talking about getting one of the possibly available free agents next year. I was just saying that is not all that easy. (if they even want to come play for your team, most don't like going for rebuilding project teams).

My summarry supports your comments. We are dumping staff to stay under the lux tax line.

Would memphis give us persons and Battier for Theo?

We would have:

JT/DD

Persons/Diaw/Hansen

Battier/Diaw/CC

SAR/Hendu

Nazr/Hendu

I think that team is pretty competitive (not for a championship, but for a playoff spot).

[Diesel]

I'll admit the east has gotten weaker.

I expect N.O. & Indy to drop out of the playoffs altogether.

I expect Chicago, Cleveland, and Miami to be better than Most people believe.

But in that, I suspect that teams will get weaker.

Detroit, Boston, and NJ will be in the playoffs, but they will be weaker.

If we can put together a team that starts:

JT/Battier/Person/SAR/Nazr (if Nazr is healthy) I suspect we'd challange for one of the last three playoffs spots. And once we're in, it's no telling who we will face and if the matchup is to our advantage.

[RLHawk]

If that team was competitive, and Diaw or Hansen could develop at the SG spot, then after the season we would be sitting at a cap number ~43M. That is right at the salary cap level and we could use a mid-level on some help at a spot or two. The problem is how could we get over the hump. We may be setting ourselves up to be in the same spot we were when we had Mookie, Smitty and Deke. 2nd round of playoffs.

I would also consider doing a trade for some high talent. We willhave some expiring contracts (that are of some value by themselves) we could possibly trade to "help out" a cap strapped team...SAR/Hendu for Vice Carter/Antoinio Davis could get interest (especially if they once again do as well without Vince as with him) Davis is not worth as much as he is being paid, so they would then have some flexibility coming up.

[Guest]

Personally, I think that's a fair and somewhat realistic trade for both teams. The problem in Memphis right now is depth without parity. Doing that trade eleminates some swing position battles that they have, but they'll still have to make another trade involving frontcourt players such as Lo or Swift as Gasol and Theo would gobble most of the minutes at the 4/5. But...they're going to have to do that anyway (make two trades).

[Diesel]

We can never be successful unless we take risks.

Teams that are successful take risks.

SAN ANTONIO threw a season and dissed Nique in order to get Duncan.

LAL took a risk by trading Vlade for Kobe in order to get Kobe Shaq.

Minn took a risk by trading Marbury, Googs in order to keep KG.

NJ took a risk by trading Marbury for Kidd.

Dallas took a risk by trading away Kidd, Mash, and JJ in order to be bad enough to build what they have now.

SacTown took a risk by giving up Loved Vet Mitch Richmond for troubled CWebb.

Where are Atlanta risks?

We play by the rules. We stay within the Luxury tax. We stay at the salary cap. We keep Players with Good reputations. We have taken NO risk. How can we expect Success by playing it safe?

The only team that was successful playing it safe was Houston. They played it safe and built a team around Hakeem... They still needed Jordan to retire and they still took a risk by making Cassell their starter.

[Traceman]

If JT were to make $6.0 million in 04/05, That would put us at $50.5 million with 8 players. The luxury tax threshold will be AT LEAST $54 million (probably higher). If the pick makes $1.2 million, that is $51.7 million. If we resign Hansen (or the like), he will make around $500,000. That is $52.2 million. That leaves around $1.8 million to sign 2 more guys. All that can be done if we make NO trades.

Simply trading Nazr for an ending contract alleviates ANY need for a wholesale salary dump. Unless we are getting young talent/picks and ending salary in deals for Reef or Theo, we should just hold on to them at least until next season when they both will be even more valuable. A guy who is as productive as Reef should have a LOT of value in the last year of his deal because not only can he produce, he comes off the books if you want salary cap room. Same goes for Theo.

[Diesel]

Sign JT....

Sign Hansen and 2 other CBA like talents and we're ready to play because we're under the Luxury tax.

However, this is just what I'm saying KB.

Are we trying to WIN or are we trying to be in good financial standing.

Sorry, but:

JT/Diaw/CC/SAR/Theo doesn't strike fear into the hearts of any team contending for the EC championship. However, this is what you just proposed we put on the floor.

My statement is this:

Why wait for Mediocrity.

Inevitably, Reef and Theo will be FAs. We must assume that they will be lost in the shuffle of FAcy. IF we are not willing to put a team around them to go for a title or to be competitive, what are we waiting on.

It's obvious based on Salary structure and the rules that we won't give either one an extension. It's obvious that right now, we don't have the talent to compete with Chicago or Toronto...

So what exactly are we doing as a franchise other than wasting time???

Are we hoping to "win" the Lottery?

Are we hoping that next year, some team will give us a good deal for either Theo or Reef? History shows that in the last year of a contract, teams tend to offer Crappy stuff for players with high end contracts.

I say if we are rebuilding, let's not fool ourselves, but lets find some Picks and some players and build a plan around them.

[mrhonline]

Why complicate things? Simply trade Nazr for an expiring deal and go use the MLE next year to improve the team.

Take the Person/Archibald for Nazr/CC deal:

Player	2003-4	2004-5	2005-6

SAR	13.50	14.63	0.00

Theo	10.16	10.94	0.00

Hendu	7.68	8.27	0.00

Person	7.70	0.00	0.00

Arch	0.56	0.00	0.00

Diaw	0.98	1.05	1.13

Dickau	0.84	0.89	1.61

TOTAL	41.42	35.78	2.74


JT	7.00	7.70	8.40

FA SF	3.40	3.74	4.08 (Stephen Jackson?)

FA SG	1.50	1.65	0.00 (Steve Smith?)

Hansen	0.37	0.39	0.00

FA C	0.56	0.70	0.00 (Alvin Jones, Jr.?)

04' Pick (#8)	1.74	1.87

05' Pick (#12)	0.00	1.89

Total	54.25	51.70	18.98

[KB21]

Why should he, when he can play the year on the one year tender and try again as an unrestricted free agent next offseason?

JT is either going to get the extension he feels he is worth, or he will sign the one year deal.

[Diesel]

How many teams looked at him this year and Passed?

Unless Terry can prove that he is a PG, nobody will want to spend more than an MCE on him. If we offer him a deal starting at 5.5, his choice is either take it or get offered LESS with LESS annual raise Next year.

KB, you act as if JT is a hot commodity??

Let's put this in perspective for you...

Andre Miller had a Bad Year on a Losing team.

He got a huge offered from Denver.

Gilbert Arenas is the prototypical SG in PG body and was shown to not be able to finish.

He got offered a hugh deal from Washington.

JT is supposed to be good. He has not gotten 1 offer. His agent is making up offers to stir up interest in Terry. The Whole League is saying Terry is an undersized 2 guard who may never be a PG....

If JT gets anything Longterm, he should probably take it. Especially if there's a player option in it.

[Guest]

D, yo'ure being incredibly closed minded in this one. Why would any team go out and bid on JT right now and help the Hawks set his price? He's a good player with a definite future in this league to say the very least...Arenas was risk free as GS couldn't match him, and Miller was almost in the same boat...JT is not, unless a team wants to severly overbid for him.

Most teams are resigned to the fact that that we'll match an offer...so they're hoping he'll just take the 5th year and be and unrFA next year or go ahead and let us deal with him.

[Diesel]

GS could have matched a deal for Arenas.

In reply to:

---

Washington - Guard Gilbert Arenas- last year's Most Improved Player award winner- is officially a Wizard now as the deadline for which the Golden State Warriors had to match the Wizards' offer sheet has come and gone.

---

The fact of the matter is that no team wanted to do what Denver and Washington did. Pay JT. Before the big trade, JT was available to whoever would bid on him and it was not likely that we would have matched.

The truth is that there have been NO Seekers.

In reply to:

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Alain, Atlanta: what do you think of the Jason Terry situation in Atl and what kind of additional moves do you expect from the new management before season starts?

David Aldridge:

I'm not sure Jason won't wind up staying in Atlanta. From talking to the Jazz I haven't gotten the indication that they're going to aggressively pursue him. As I said earlier I'm sure there will be a lot of teams trying to get Ratliff.

---

[KB21]

Man, you spew more [censored] than anyone I know.

Golden State couldn't match Arenas's offer. The MOST Golden State could offer was $4.9 million. Arenas has only been in the league for two years. They did not have his Bird rights, which means they couldn't sign him to any amount over the cap. All they could give him was the MCE.

It's a incontrovertible fact that teams know Atlanta will match any offer for Jason Terry.

[Traceman]

I THINK the Hawks will match any offer JT gets UP TO A CERTAIN AMOUNT but it is certainly not an incontrovertable fact that teams KNOW they will match ANY offer he gets. How can teams possibly KNOW this? They can ASSUME that the Hawks will match but then again, I'm sure that they assumed the Hawks would sign JT shortly after the Big Dog trade was made. Then, they probably assumed the Hawks would sign JT shortly after Stotts and Knight were hired.

I think the Hawks are just sitting back waiting for the deal to get done, not making ANY personnel moves until they absolutely HAVE to. I predict they won't make a decision on JT until they are forced to do so when another team makes him an offer or until after the sale as completed, whichever comes first.