Midseason Assessment of Minutes

[AHF]

As we are passing the midpoint in the season, I thought I would quickly offer my $.02 on how minutes are being distributed in the four key categories I have been tracking.

Category #1 - Joe Johnson - GOOD NEWS

Joe Johnson through 44 games 37.5 mpg

40+ minute games: 3 through first 10 games, 7 of games 11-20, 2 of games 21-30, 5 of games 31-40, 1 of games 41-44 (18 of 44 overall - 41%)

We all know the drill with JJ. He has been run into the ground the last few years and it led to a disasterous turn in the playoffs last season. This is a larger issue for the entire team but is most focused on JJ.

The good news is that Woody has trimmed 2 minutes per game off of JJ's playing time - moving him down from just under 40 mpg to just under 38 mpg. That is a significant difference for this team and should pay dividends during the playoffs if it continues. JJ has only played 40 minutes or more in 8 of his last 24 games - a good trend to see.

Category #2 - Mike Bibby - GOOD NEWS

Mike Bibby through 44 games - 27.6 mpg (down from 34 mpg last season)

35+ minute games: 1 through first 10 games, 4 of games 11-20, 0 of games 21-30, 2 of games 31-40, 0 of games 41-44 (7 of 44 overall - 16%)

With Bibby aging before our eyes and more depth than ever in the backcourt, one would hope to see a signficant reduction in Bibby's minutes to preserve his legs and effectiveness. The good news here is that this is exactly what we are seeing. Bibby is playing more than 6 mpg less than last season and getting plenty of rest each game. He has only played 35 minutes or more in 2 of his last 24 games - last season he averaged 34 mpg. I fully expect to see this continue for the remainder of the season.

Category #3 - Jeff Teague - BAD NEWS

Jeff Teague through 44 games - 8.8 mpg

Games with 5 minutes and change or less: 23 (53% of total games)

As Bibby gets older and slower, the Hawks struggle badly to even bother quick point guards with their rotation of Bibby, Crawford and JJ matching up with the waterbugs. Unless we bring in a veteran who can apply that kind of defensive pressure, our only hope of doing so is developing Teague. That is for this year. Next year and beyond, it is hard to envision Bibby remaining a starting quality PG for too much longer although it is so far so good for the most part this season. That would seem to leave a need to develop Teague but it is clearly not a priority for the coaching staff.

Teague is playing 8.8 mpg on average over the 44 games he has been eligible to play (389 minutes over 44 games).

More disturbing is the lack of consistency in Teague's minutes. In 53% of the 44 games this season, Teague has played 5 minutes and change or less. That trend has been consistent all year with Teague mixing a 12 minute game with a 3 minute game or DNP-CD that prevents the establishment of any kind of consistent role or consistent expectations.

I personally would like to see Teague in a limited but consistent role going forward. His shooting has been abysmal but many of the other numbers are excellent for a point guard: 6.5 ap36, 2.7 top36, 2.0 sp36. He is generating the most assists per minute on the team along with a steal rate that is double everyone other than Josh. His A/TO ratio is better than guys like Derrick Rose, Lebron James, Russell Westbrook, Brandon Jennings and many other young, lead guards. My hope is that a consistent rotation of minutes will give him better comfort and more confidence on the floor.

Category #4 - Bench Play (beyond top 6 players) - BAD NEWS

Atlanta's Bench Beyond the Top 6 Avg - 49.1 mpg through 44 games

% of games with fewer than 51 minutes - 61% (27 of 44)

(Boston's bench beyond their top 6 in minutes played averages 63 mpg through 1.04.10)

(Cleveland's bench beyond top 6 in minutes played averages 78 mpg through 1.04.10)

(Portland's bench beyond their top 6 in minutes played averages 69 mpg through 1.04.10)

(Denver's bench beyond their top 6 in minutes played averages 67 mpg through 1.04.10)

(Dallas's bench beyond their top 6 in minutes played averages 65 mpg through 1.04.10)

The good news is that Bibby and JJ's minutes are better this season and so they are seeing less of a pounding. The bad news is that we still run our top 6 players much harder as a group than nearly any other top team in the league. Our bench beyond the top 6 average 49.1 mpg so far this season. Many of the other contenders are getting their top 6 players 15 more minutes of rest per game than our squad.

I wonder whether this is simply Woody's style or a reflection on our depth. Cleveland's non-top 6 squad averaged 78 mpg as of 2 weeks ago when I last checked. Their bench of J.J. Hickson (mpg don't rate in top 7), Daniel Gibson, Jamario Moon, Delonte West, Darnell Jackson, Danny Green, Jawad Williams, and Coby Karl doesn't seem so much more talented than Jeff Teague, Joe Smith, Zaza Pachulia, Maurice Evans, RandMo, Jason Collins, and Mario West but they certainly see many more minutes.

In any event, the concern is that we are playing our top 6 players substantially more than other top teams in the league and that this may be a reflection that coaches believe their top players need more rest to be in shape for the playoffs. One would assume that guys like Keith Bogans (more minutes than any of our reserves) and Derrick Brown (more minutes than all but 2 of our reserves) are not getting substantially more burn because they are so much more talented than our reserves. I hope the bench steps up and Woody expands our rotation for the remainder of the year by a few minutes per game to keep the eye on the prize and have a team that is primed for the playoffs.

[coachx]

I don't have a problem with the minutes much. Maybe trim another minute off JJ's floor time.

I do wish Teage would get 10 mpg at a minimum.

Besides that, I think Marvin, Smoove, and Horford's minutes are about right. I don't think any of them are over-worked at all. No need for the bench to steal away their minutes since they produce less.

Edited January 28, 2010 by coachx

[spotatl]

Daniel Gibson, Jamario Moon, Delonte West, Darnell Jackson, Danny Green, Jawad Williams, and Coby Karl doesn't seem so much more talented than Jeff Teague, Joe Smith, Zaza Pachulia, Maurice Evans, RandMo, Jason Collins, and Mario West

Seriously? I'd take West and Moon over anyone on the Hawks list. Gibson woudl be a good addition to the Hawks as the backup PG though he is ridiculously overpaid.

Edited January 28, 2010 by spotatl

[AHF]

Seriously? I'd take West and Moon over anyone on the Hawks list. Gibson woudl be a good addition to the Hawks as the backup PG though he is ridiculously overpaid.

I don't see a huge difference between West (13.2 PER) and Moon (13.0 PER) and Zaza (12.3 PER) & Evans (12.0 PER), but understand your point granting that the difference between those benches is 78 mpg verus 49 mpg - a huge gulf where Cleveland's bench gets 160% of the time ours does and I don't think that gulf is accounted for solely by the difference in talent.

[spotatl]

I think the difference has a lot to do with the fact that Shaq isn't really good for more than 23 minutes a game where the Hakws have Horford as their starting center who is perfectly fine with the 34 minutes a game he plays. I sure don't want to see Zaza in the game more at the expense of Horford or Smith.

I don't really want evans taking minutes away from Joe, Crawford, and Marvin.

I don't think Teague is ready to help a playoff team.

Edited January 28, 2010 by spotatl

[AHF]

I think the difference has a lot to do with the fact that Shaq isn't really good for more than 23 minutes a game where the Hakws have Horford as their starting center who is perfectly fine with the 34 minutes a game he plays.

Cleveland has 2 guards and 1 forward with more minutes than any of our nontop6 subs. Considering that none of them play center, I think it is deeper than that.

[coachx]

Here is some perspective we are missing.

The Hawks have started the same starting 5 in all but 1 game. We are probably the only team in the league to be that lucky. That does not give the bench guys many 30 minute games to pad their mpg.

The Cavs have started 9 different players due to injury. Here is a list of players that have missed games"

West - 12 games

Shaq - 6 games

Mo Williams - 4 games

Varejo - 2 games

Big Z - 1 game

Hickson - 1 game.

Now when a guy misses a game it does not hurt their mpg at all.........it simply pads the mpg for the other players.

The Celtics, Mavericks, and Trailblazers have been hit with injuries and having to play different starting lineups even more then then the Cavs too.

The Celtics have also been forced to start 9 different players due to injuries. Here is a list of how many games their main players have missed:

KG - 11 games

Pierce - 5 games

Big Baby - 27 games

T. Allen - 21 games

Daniels - 27 games

Wallace - 3 games

Rondo - 1 game

The Blazer have been forced to start 11 different players.

Here is their list of the walking wounded who missed games:

Roy - 7

Aldridge - 3

Oden - 26

Pryzbilla - 17

Batum - 45

Blake - 4

The Hawks only have 1 starter who has misse a game all year.

Edited January 28, 2010 by coachx

[AHF]

Here is some perspective we are missing.

The Hawks have started the same starting 5 in all but 1 game. We are probably the only team in the league to be that lucky. That does not give the bench guys many 30 minute games to pad their mpg.

The Cavs have started 9 different players due to injury. Here is a list of players that have missed games"

West - 12 games

Shaq - 6 games

Mo Williams - 4 games

Varejo - 2 games

Big Z - 1 game

Hickson - 1 game.

Now when a guy misses a game it does not hurt their mpg at all.........it simply pads the mpg for the other players.

I accounted for the 10 games missed by Shaq and Mo in my above post. Hickson has missed 0 games, not 1.

However, the rest of the post actually supports my position. If West misses 12 games, that means more minutes for the starters - not the bench. He isn't in the top 6 on the team in mpg so at best it breaks even if those minutes are picked up by other bench players - it does not artificially inflate the number of minutes played by the bench because he is one of those bench players.

The time missed by Varejo or Big Z won't move the needle if you want to plug one of them in for Hickson (which is actually what I should have done since Andy plays the most of them).

The fact is that even after accounting for all this, Atlanta rides its top players much harder than the Cavs and you can see that in the mpg, as well as the stats I quoted above.

[spotatl]

Thats because the Cavs have better PLAYERS than the Hawks do. If maurice Evans and Zaza were put onto the Cavs right now I don't think they would see the court.

I just don't get this line of thinking. WHy on earth would you want Maurice Evans to play more minutes ahead of Marvin, Crawford, and Joe?

Edited January 28, 2010 by spotatl

[coachx]

I think the difference has a lot to do with the fact that Shaq isn't really good for more than 23 minutes a game where the Hakws have Horford as their starting center who is perfectly fine with the 34 minutes a game he plays. I sure don't want to see Zaza in the game more at the expense of Horford or Smith.

I don't really want evans taking minutes away from Joe, Crawford, and Marvin.

I don't think Teague is ready to help a playoff team.

Well said...........that and the fact we have had few injuries easily explains the "truth behind the numbers."

Its alwayse important to look at context and perspective when analyzing raw numbers data.

[coachx]

I accounted for the 10 games missed by Shaq and Mo in my above post. Hickson has missed 0 games, not 1.

However, the rest of the post actually supports my position. If West misses 12 games, that means more minutes for the starters - not the bench. He isn't in the top 6 on the team in mpg so at best it breaks even if those minutes are picked up by other bench players - it does not artificially inflate the number of minutes played by the bench because he is one of those bench players.

The time missed by Varejo or Big Z won't move the needle if you want to plug one of them in for Hickson (which is actually what I should have done since Andy plays the most of them).

The fact is that even after accounting for all this, Atlanta rides its top players much harder than the Cavs and you can see that in the mpg, as well as the stats I quoted above.

The Trailblazers and Celtics have had starters miss signifcant time where bench players had to start and play heavier minutes then normal. Both KG and Pierce have had to miss time and in Portland Roy, Blake, Aldridge, and Oden have missed time.

[AHF]

The Trailblazers and Celtics have had starters miss signifcant time where bench players had to start and play heavier minutes then normal. Both KG and Pierce have had to miss time and in Portland Roy, Blake, Aldridge, and Oden have missed time.

Portland's starters have missed 999 minutes.

Their bench has played 3774 minutes.

3774 - 999 = 2775

2775/47 = 59 mpg

Even after accounting for injuries and ignoring the fact that starters also play more when a fellow starter is out, Portland's bench plays 11 more minutes per game than the Hawks.

[spotatl]

AHF- other than Teague who do you think should be playing so many more minutes on the Hawks?

[AHF]

Thats because the Cavs have better PLAYERS than the Hawks do. If maurice Evans and Zaza were put onto the Cavs right now I don't think they would see the court.

I just don't get this line of thinking. WHy on earth would you want Maurice Evans to play more minutes ahead of Marvin, Crawford, and Joe?

I don't want us repeating last year:

JJ overused and burned out

Marvin overused and injured

Horford overused and injured

Bibby overused and unable to compete athletically

If we are talking about a given game, then I agree. I do want to see us manage like the Spurs, though, and keep our focus on the playoffs and not just the game to game.

Regarding who should be playing more, I would say whoever is needed to keep our guys primed for the playoffs. Our bench can certainly handle more time:

Mo Evans 15.3 mpg - 2008-09 23 mpg for Atl, 2007-08 23.9 mpg for Orl, 2006-07 22.8 mpg for LAL

Zaza Pachulia 14.1 mpg - career low (post-rookie season)

Joe Smith 9.0 mpg - 2008-09 19.6 mpg for Cle, 2007-08 22 mpg for Chi/Cle

Edited January 28, 2010 by AHF

[spotatl]

Marvin wasn't injured because he played too many minutes. Horford wasn't injrued because he played too many minutes. Hell- I think JJ being worn out has more to do with the fact he was asked to guard the top offensive threats on the other team every night more than it has to do with him playing a couple extra minutes.

THe Hawks don't have guys on the bench who deserve more time.

[AHF]

Marvin wasn't injured because he played too many minutes. Horford wasn't injrued because he played too many minutes. Hell- I think JJ being worn out has more to do with the fact he was asked to guard the top offensive threats on the other team every night more than it has to do with him playing a couple extra minutes.

THe Hawks don't have guys on the bench who deserve more time.

JJ guarding the top offensive threat and playing more minutes than he should are cumulative issues - not separate ones. I am not a doctor so I will take your view that back injuries and ankle injuries are not workload related. I do have little doubt that our backcourt was overused last season to excess and it concerns me that our bench is being used less than all other contenders I have seen even after accounting for injuries on other teams.

[coachx]

I don't want us repeating last year:

JJ overused and burned out

Marvin overused and injured

Horford overused and injured

Bibby overused and unable to compete athletically

I have to disagree on Marvin and Horford being injured b/c they were over used. Marvin's wrist injury was not an issue of fatigue like a stress fracture of the foot may be linked too.

I do agree with JJ being over used. He should not be forced to guard the other teams best scoring wing or the elite PGs like was asked (and is still asked to do). I could see shaving him down to 36 mpg flat and letting Crawford get another minute.

Bibby can't compete athletically ever..........no matter what his minutes are. I like his minutes where they are now at 27 mpg. That sounds about right for him. Its just up to Teague to earn more minuntes from positive play.

At least Woody is giving Teague the chance to shine. Teague just has to step up.

Edited January 28, 2010 by coachx

[AHF]

I have to disagree on Marvin and Horford being injured b/c they were over used. Marvin's wrist injury was not an issue of fatigue like a stress fracture of the foot may be linked too.

I do agree with JJ being over used. He should not be forced to guard the other teams best scoring wing or the elite PGs like was asked (and is still asked to do). I could see shaving him down to 36 mpg flat and letting Crawford get another minute.

Bibby can't compete athletically ever..........no matter what his minutes are. I like his minutes where they are now at 27 mpg. That sounds about right for him. Its just up to Teague to earn more minuntes from positive play.

At least Woody is giving Teague the chance to shine. Teague just has to step up.

I agree about Bibby and think that giving Teague consistent minutes for a period of time would be giving him the chance to shine. The yo-yo minutes are hard for a lot of young players to deal with.

[macdaddy]

Its good that JJ is playing less minutes but I feel like that's more a factor of us having more double digit wins than anyone in the league. It still means less punishment but its not a sign to me that Woody is using him less as part of a conscious effort to do so. I wonder if you eliminate blowout games what JJ's avg minutes are?

I'd like to see Joe Smith get more time playing with the starters and maybe Collins too. I think Collins could be very useful for 5 or 10 minutes a game if he was in game shape. It bugs me to see the Spurs take it to the hole so many times without us getting physical with them. We have guys who can do that.

[spotatl]

Can anyone read this article and think that Jason Collins should be getting 5 to 10 minutes a game for the Hawks? http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3315#more-3315