CNNSI's Zach Lowe: Horford Injury Should Change Atlanta's Long-Term Plans

[AHF]

Joe Johnson has the gaudy numbers and the monster contract, but the single most important reason the Hawks have been one of the last eight teams remaining in the playoffs every year since 2008 is this: They have two dynamic, fast, versatile big men who contribute on offense, defense and on the boards.

One of those two men — Al Horford — is out for the balance of the regular season , and given the burden the Horford/Josh Smith duo carries on both ends, it will be interesting to see whether this is the kind of injury that has a larger trickle-down impact than we might anticipate. After all, Horford is “only” averaging 12.4 points and seven rebounds per game. Zaza Pachulia, Atlanta’s best backup big, has averaged 12.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per 36 minutes through his career, so he could duplicate Horford’s raw production if given more run.

Toss in Marvin Williams’ continued production (once he’s healthy), some small-ball lineups with Vladimir Radmanovic (perpetually underrated) at power forward, playing time for Internet sensation Ivan Johnson and some Jason Collins appearances against the right teams (Orlando, basically), and the Hawks would seem equipped to cover for the absence of a 12-7 big man. Jeff Teague looks like a solid starting point guard, even if his first season a starter has been a bit scattershot, and the Hawks are one of just a half-dozen teams to rank in the top 10 so far in both points scored and allowed per possession. If they play hard and keep the pace down, they’ll win enough ugly games to avoid the lottery. Right?

But the NBA is of course more complicated. The per-36-minute stats of Atlanta’s backups look nice, but there’s a reason Horford and Smith are the guys actually playing 36 minutes. Atlanta’s other big-man options all have limitations that will get exposed with increased playing time. None even approaches Horford as a two-way contributor capable of greasing the wheels on both ends.

Horford isn’t blameless when it comes to the fact that his numbers are down. Coaching and shot selection have contributed, but Horford still hasn’t developed an efficient post game that would make him a more consistent go-to player on offense. Still, he’s one of the game’s best pick-and-pop threats, and the combination of his jumper, screening ability and passing — elite for a big man — has helped Atlanta’s slow-poke offensive flow. That’s what Atlanta coach Larry Drew means when he refers to Horford as the teams’ “glue guy.”

He’s also talking about defense, where Smith and Horford are used to keeping the Hawks afloat with their combination of quickness, size and smarts. Go through all 30 NBA teams and ask yourself how many have two starting big men they can peg as very good contributors on both ends — two guys who don’t hurt your spacing, rebounding, passing, pick-and-roll coverage or any other key aspect of the game. There aren’t many. Horford can defend the pick-and-roll in lots of different ways depending on the opponent. He ranked as one of the league’s very best defenders last season, per Synergy Sports, and he’s among the top bigs when it comes to jumping out on point guards (or sliding along with them above the foul line) and retreating to cover a big man on pick-and-rolls. He and Smith can switch onto smaller players, and they are both good rebounders.

Remove either, and the house of cards is wobbly. The fact that Atlanta is 8-4 gives the Hawks a big early edge in the playoff race, though that triple-overtime stinker against Miami now feels even more like an opportunity blown. And as Tom Ziller of SB Nation notes, you can basically write off four teams — Detroit, New Jersey, Washington and Charlotte — from the Eastern Conference playoff race, barring a sudden Dwight Howard trade to the Nets, which would deal a fatal blow to Orlando. Toronto and Cleveland, pleasant early surprises, should take their place among the lottery bunch soon.

That leaves nine teams for eight playoff spots, with the Bucks, at 4-6, standing as the team most eager to seize an opening. Milwaukee has already blown two big late-game leads against bad teams (Charlotte and Sacramento), and being 4-6 instead of 6-4 matters in a compressed season. So does the fact that Milwaukee has three rotation players (Beno Udrih, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Mike Dunleavy) batting injuries. Between the struggles of the Bucks and Celtics, don’t be surprised if Atlanta can maintain a playoff spot, even if they play sub-.500 ball without Horford.

That raises the question of what Atlanta’s management should do here — and what it can do, given all the constraints involved. The Hawks have been allergic to the luxury tax, and though they’re a hair over it right now, they can get back under by cutting one of several non-guaranteed deals. Going that route is far more likely than Atlanta, already with the maximum 15 roster players, adding a significant salary commitment via trade.

The future brings larger questions. The Hawks are a nice non-contender even in peak form and have about $61 million committed for next season, meaning they will be over or right at the projected cap level. They won’t have any real cap room until the summer of 2013, when Smith’s contract comes off the books, but losing a 27-year-old versatile big man isn’t exactly a plus, even if it helps your cap picture. The Hawks have about $35 million committed to Johnson and Horford each year going forward, and if they want to seriously contend, they either have to flip one of those guys to gain more flexibility or absolutely nail the roster moves around them.

We have years worth of evidence now that putting Smith and other decent players around Johnson and Horford isn’t enough, and with Miami and Chicago poised for several years of dominance, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be enough anytime soon. There’s an argument to made that Teague’s development plus the inevitable future coaching change might shift this picture, but it’s not a convincing argument.

So if anything, the Horford injury should just add more urgency to Atlanta’s quest to change its future. That urgency is already there. ESPN.com has reported Atlanta has worked to get into the Dwight Howard derby even without assurance that Howard would stay there long-term. That kind of thinking is healthy given the roster here, and Horford’s injury only makes it more so. There are far worse things than dealing Smith for an asset, snagging a lottery pick and moving on. Dealing Johnson’s mammoth salary will be even better, but that will be tough.

http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2012/01/13/hawks-future-shaky-without-al-horford/?sct=hp_wr_a3&eref=sihp

[Diesel]

Bunk...

I think he's right in that we need to change... but that was necessary without Horf going out. However, he's dead wrong in saying that the changes we make have to be some sort of firesale. We have been one of the last 8 teams playing for the last three years. Horf is a very good player but Horf disappeared against Chicago and we were still in it. And that was with less depth and familiarity. This is a turning point for the Hawks but not until after we have seen the bulk of this season.

[HawksFan87]

Same ol hawks are doomed bs i've seen over the last 24 hours...

[Admin]

I also didn't like the "inevitable coaching change" line. I think that LD has the makings of a very good coach and he's already a pretty decent one and the team seems to respect him as well. Teague also has the potential to become an All-Star PG so I don't feel the doom and gloom outlook is fair at all given that we should be able to survive for the next 3 months and possibly even get better in the long run because of this.

[Buzzard]

I also didn't like the "inevitable coaching change" line. I think that LD has the makings of a very good coach and he's already a pretty decent one and the team seems to respect him as well. Teague also has the potential to become an All-Star PG so I don't feel the doom and gloom outlook is fair at all given that we should be able to survive for the next 3 months and possibly even get better in the long run because of this.

I don't see the doom and gloom either. Smith, Teague, Marvin, and JJ all get a chance to prove their metal now. We may or may not make the 2nd round or even the playoffs, but this will be a good experience and learning opportunity for everyone.

Edited January 13, 2012 by Buzzard

[atlbraves93]

What else does this team need to do to end all of the "blow it up" talk for at least a couple of days? People said they would judge this Hawks team on how they played against Chicago and Miami, and guess what, the Hawks have shown that they can beat both. I know we are saddled with JJ's contract but he is playing decent ball, and Josh, Teague, and Marvin are all having breakout years. Even without Al, I don't see how you can be pessimistic.

[AHawks89]

No clue who Zack Lowe is, and I'm pretty sure I want to keep it that way. He don't sound to knowledgeable when it comes to basketball.

[Dsinner]

I stopped reading @ "Joe Johnson has the gaudy numbers..."

[lethalweapon3]

Zach was a longtime Boston Celtics fan blogger who got a full-time gig at SI a couple years ago. Kind of like the Yahoo! Fan Contributor Network if those guys really got paid to do that for a living. He knows a LOT about the Celtics, and not a heck of a lot about most other teams, especially the Hawks.

~lw3