Legal Sports Gambling Thread

[TheNorthCydeRises]

As of November 1st, online sports gambling is legal here in Tennessee.   I signed up to one of the online services ( Bet MGM ) and may sign up to DraftKings sometime in the future ( if I get good at this ).

LOL . . so far, I'm horrible.  But the nature of sports gambling is crazy, because these teams find creative ways not to cover, or some horrible mishap happens that kills you.

I've played some 2 and 3 pick parlays ranging from $10 - $20.  Here's how I've lost on those parlays.

 

• Pittsburgh ( -10 )  : ( Over 45 ) on GB v INDY : Cincinnati ( +1.5 ) . . . . $20 bet
  • I knew Pittsburgh would crush Jacksonville and they did just that
  • I knew the GB/Indy game would be a shootout, and they didn't disappoint. 
  • The only game I was worried about was Cincinnati winning vs Washington ( which I really wasn't worried about ).  Of course, the game was tight, but then catastrophe happens.  Joe Burrow has his lineman block the D-Lineman into his knee, tearing his ACL and PCL.  He's gone for the year, as are my chances at a easy parlay that could've paid me $330.

 

• Memphis v W. Kentucky ( Under 150.5 ) - Austin Peay v E. Tennessee St ( Under 146.5 ) - Middle Tennessee ( -1.5 ) . . . $15 bet
  • I had just saw Memphis play St. Mary's last night and they're one of the best defensive teams in the country. WKU wins the game, but the point total was only 144, so I'm good!
  • Austin Peay is my local mid major school and I know a lot about them. When I saw the 146.5 number, I jumped all over that.  They win by 1 ( 66 - 65 ) . . 131 total points.  Easy win.
  • LOL @ MTSU vs Omaha.  I had just seen the Omaha team because they played Austin Peay the night before.  They were OK, but I thought Middle would win by about 5.  MTSU is up by 3 with 19 seconds to go . . AND are at the FT line.   I'm thinking, I got this game in the bag, and possibly my first 3-team parlay win.  Here are the sequence of events that kill it:
    • MTSU Dude misses BOTH FTs
    • Omaha aggressively goes to the basket, gets fouled, and makes both FTs . . . MTSU is now up 1 with 9 seconds to go
    • Omaha has to steal or force a turnover.   THEY FORCE A FREAKING TURNOVER!  3 seconds to go.
    • Omaha gets fouled AGAIN on a shot.  They make both FTs.  Omaha is now up by 1 and the only shot I have of winning this parlay is on a miracle 3 by MTSU.
    • Of course, they turn the ball over again . . . game over . . . and a potential $110 payout

 

• Auburn ( -7.5 ) - Belmont ( +14.5 ) . . $10 bet . . . LOL . . notice how the bet amounts are getting lower?
  • Belmont vs Howard game wasn't close from the start, with Belmont leading by 21 at halftime.  They hold on and win by 17.
  • Auburn, on the other hand . . . SMH
    • 1st half they're feeling each other out. Auburn goes on a late run to close the half, and go up by 8
    • 2nd half was wild.  Auburn had two 11 point leads, only for St Joes to storm back each time.
    • St Joes eventually goes up by 3 with under 1 minute to go. That team was raining 3s in that 2nd half, after shooting horribly in the 1st half
    • Only way to even have a shot, is for Auburn to get this game to OT . . which they DO!!  5 more minutes of basketball.  Very slim chance Auburn wins by 8 though
    • They go back and forth, with Auburn eventually making their FTs and winning by 5.  But . . that's still a parlay loss on a $35 payout.

 

• Texas Southern ( +10 ) vs Washington St . . . picked Tx Southern to win straight out . . $10 free bet to win $132
  • Not gonna lie, I thought I had this one in the bag.  TSU has been a strong program out of the SWAC the past few years. Washington St has been shaky at best.
  • In hindsight, I definitely should've taken the points, but that would've only netted me $27.  I thought those kids could win the game outright.
  • Game went right down to the wire and was tied at 52 with 1 minute to go.  But TxSo wouldn't score again and lose by 4.

 

Once the NBA cranks up, this will probably be my guilty pleasure, especially if I can at least break even.  LOL . . just can't be losing $50 - $100 a week off of this crap though.  The fact that the site gives out free bets from time to time, definitely helps.  And probably the better play is to just bet on individual games to get smaller amounts, but possibly get your money back off of the money being spent playing parlays.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

11 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

As of November 1st, online sports gambling is legal here in Tennessee.   I signed up to one of the online services ( Bet MGM ) and may sign up to DraftKings sometime in the future ( if I get good at this ).

LOL . . so far, I'm horrible.  But the nature of sports gambling is crazy, because these teams find creative ways not to cover, or some horrible mishap happens that kills you.

I've played some 2 and 3 pick parlays ranging from $10 - $20.  Here's how I've lost on those parlays.

 

• Pittsburgh ( -10 )  : ( Over 45 ) on GB v INDY : Cincinnati ( +1.5 ) . . . . $20 bet
  • I knew Pittsburgh would crush Jacksonville and they did just that
  • I knew the GB/Indy game would be a shootout, and they didn't disappoint. 
  • The only game I was worried about was Cincinnati winning vs Washington ( which I really wasn't worried about ).  Of course, the game was tight, but then catastrophe happens.  Joe Burrow has his lineman block the D-Lineman into his knee, tearing his ACL and PCL.  He's gone for the year, as are my chances at a easy parlay that could've paid me $330.

 

• Memphis v W. Kentucky ( Under 150.5 ) - Austin Peay v E. Tennessee St ( Under 146.5 ) - Middle Tennessee ( -1.5 ) . . . $15 bet
  • I had just saw Memphis play St. Mary's last night and they're one of the best defensive teams in the country. WKU wins the game, but the point total was only 144, so I'm good!
  • Austin Peay is my local mid major school and I know a lot about them. When I saw the 146.5 number, I jumped all over that.  They win by 1 ( 66 - 65 ) . . 131 total points.  Easy win.
  • LOL @ MTSU vs Omaha.  I had just seen the Omaha team because they played Austin Peay the night before.  They were OK, but I thought Middle would win by about 5.  MTSU is up by 3 with 19 seconds to go . . AND are at the FT line.   I'm thinking, I got this game in the bag, and possibly my first 3-team parlay win.  Here are the sequence of events that kill it:
    • MTSU Dude misses BOTH FTs
    • Omaha aggressively goes to the basket, gets fouled, and makes both FTs . . . MTSU is now up 1 with 9 seconds to go
    • Omaha has to steal or force a turnover.   THEY FORCE A FREAKING TURNOVER!  3 seconds to go.
    • Omaha gets fouled AGAIN on a shot.  They make both FTs.  Omaha is now up by 1 and the only shot I have of winning this parlay is on a miracle 3 by MTSU.
    • Of course, they turn the ball over again . . . game over . . . and a potential $110 payout

 

• Auburn ( -7.5 ) - Belmont ( +14.5 ) . . $10 bet . . . LOL . . notice how the bet amounts are getting lower?
  • Belmont vs Howard game wasn't close from the start, with Belmont leading by 21 at halftime.  They hold on and win by 17.
  • Auburn, on the other hand . . . SMH
    • 1st half they're feeling each other out. Auburn goes on a late run to close the half, and go up by 8
    • 2nd half was wild.  Auburn had two 11 point leads, only for St Joes to storm back each time.
    • St Joes eventually goes up by 3 with under 1 minute to go. That team was raining 3s in that 2nd half, after shooting horribly in the 1st half
    • Only way to even have a shot, is for Auburn to get this game to OT . . which they DO!!  5 more minutes of basketball.  Very slim chance Auburn wins by 8 though
    • They go back and forth, with Auburn eventually making their FTs and winning by 5.  But . . that's still a parlay loss on a $35 payout.

 

• Texas Southern ( +10 ) vs Washington St . . . picked Tx Southern to win straight out . . $10 free bet to win $132
  • Not gonna lie, I thought I had this one in the bag.  TSU has been a strong program out of the SWAC the past few years. Washington St has been shaky at best.
  • In hindsight, I definitely should've taken the points, but that would've only netted me $27.  I thought those kids could win the game outright.
  • Game went right down to the wire and was tied at 52 with 1 minute to go.  But TxSo wouldn't score again and lose by 4.

 

Once the NBA cranks up, this will probably be my guilty pleasure, especially if I can at least break even.  LOL . . just can't be losing $50 - $100 a week off of this crap though.  The fact that the site gives out free bets from time to time, definitely helps.  And probably the better play is to just bet on individual games to get smaller amounts, but possibly get your money back off of the money being spent playing parlays.

That Belmont game was ( -14.5 ).  They were the favorites.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Getting a little better.   I need to stop betting on college basketball because, to be honest, I'm just guessing at 85% of these games.  Not even coming close to picking those games right.

I'm betting no more than $5 on 4 to 6 team parlays.  I'll bet $10 on a 3-team parlay that I feel real good about, to see if I can get a quick $35.  On single prop bets, it's $1 - $5.

 

I did finally win my first 2 parlays over Thanksgiving Weekend:

College Football ( Point Spread ) - Ohio ( -24 ) . . Indiana ( -12 ) . . Florida ( -23.5 ) . . . payout:  $35.57

NFL ( Pick the winner ) -  Browns . . Titans . . Vikings ( who made me sweat big time ) . . Over 56.5 on Chiefs/Buccaneers ( which didn't happen, but I cashed out early ) . . . payout: $49.48 . . could've won $95 if all 4 hit

 

For Packers vs Bears, I have a 6 part parlay of individual and team stats, with individual $1 - $5 bets for who scores the first TD.

And that person was Devonte Adams;  Bet $5 . . payout $25

My other bets totaled $7, so I netted $13

 

6 part parlay is as follows for Green Bay vs Chicago

• 4+ sacks . . kind of banking of the Bears getting to Rodgers at least once, while the Pack should get to Trubisky at least 3 times
• Packers win the game outright
• Rodgers throws for 280+ yds
• Devante Adams scores a TD ( which has already happened )
• Total TDs under 3.5 . . ( which already looks shaky as hell already in the 1st quarter, with Green Bay scoring a TD on their 1st possession, and Chicago breaking a long run to already get them in the Red Zone )

payout $170 . . . if I get all 5

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Just now, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Getting a little better.   I need to stop betting on college basketball because, to be honest, I'm just guessing at 85% of these games.  Not even coming close to picking those games right.

I'm betting no more than $5 on 4 to 6 team parlays.  I'll bet $10 on a 3-team parlay that I feel real good about, to see if I can get a quick $35.  On single prop bets, it's $1 - $5.

 

I did finally win my first 2 parlays over Thanksgiving Weekend:

College Football ( Point Spread ) - Ohio ( -24 ) . . Indiana ( -12 ) . . Florida ( -23.5 ) . . . payout:  $35.57

NFL ( Pick the winner ) -  Browns . . Titans . . Vikings ( who made me sweat big time ) . . Over 56.5 on Chiefs/Buccaneers ( which didn't happen, but I cashed out early ) . . . payout: $49.48 . . could've won $95 if all 4 hit

 

For Packers vs Bears, I have a 6 part parlay of individual and team stats, with individual $1 - $5 bets for who scores the first TD.

And that person was Devonte Adams;  Bet $5 . . payout $25

My other bets totaled $7, so I netted $13

 

5 part parlay is as follows for Green Bay vs Chicago

• 4+ sacks . . kind of banking of the Bears getting to Rodgers at least once, while the Pack should get to Trubisky at least 3 times
• Packers win the game outright
• Rodgers throws for 280+ yds
• Devante Adams scores a TD ( which has already happened )
• Total TDs under 3.5 . . ( which already looks shaky as hell already in the 1st quarter, with Green Bay scoring a TD on their 1st possession, and Chicago breaking a long run to already get them in the Red Zone )

payout $170 . . . if I get all 5

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Just now, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

 

I thought it was 6, because I could've sworn I took the under 43.5 in this game.  But it turned out to be a 5 part parlay.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I've gotten to the point to which I can at least stay in the game by playing Round Robin parlays.  Of course they cost more to play, because you're playing different combinations, but I can at least get most of my money back if just one or two of the combinations hit.

Example.

I choose 5 teams, and I want to do a Round Robin bet for $2 per combination.  The combinations will fall like this

 

straight parlay needs 5 out of 5 teams hit -  pay $1 . . . . win $26

choose round robin - 2 out of 5 teams hit - pay $10 . . . max payout $26 . . . ( 10 combos / $2.60 per hit )

choose round robin - 3 out of 5 teams hit - pay $10 . . . max payout $59 . . . ( 5 combos / $11.80 per hit )

choose round robin - 4 out of 5 teams hit - pay $5 . .  .  max payout $61 . . . ( 2 combos / $30.50 per hit )

 

Still looking for that big hit.  I haven't won more than $59 on one hit.

Some of my bad beats the past 3 days:

 

I'm 5 - 0 on my 5 out of 6 round robin NFL picks.  I have the RAMS straight up against the winless Jets.  I'm already guaranteed $48.  Rams win, and I get an additional $100.  It's in the bag, right?  WRONG!

Tell em why this was the worst win ever, Rex.

 

 

And tonight . . just 3 BRUTAL bad beats.

Western Kentucky ( -22 ) vs winless Tennessee Tech:  They mess around the entire game, but start to pull away at the end.  They FINALLY go up by 24 with 1 minute left.  Tech comes back and gets a bank shot from about 8 feet to get it back to 22.  I NEED WKU to score for the cover.  They thought about winding the clock down and turning the ball over, but they did shoot . . a 3 . . and miss.   7 seconds left, and the Tech ball player ( who is a walk-on ) dribbles the length of the floor and basically makes an uncontested layup with 1 second left.  Tech loses by 20, and I lose what should've been an easy $20.   If the Tech player didn't shoot, I get my money back on a push.  

 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Western Kentucky -21.5.... <a href="https://t.co/G3UvnsY0EC">pic.twitter.com/G3UvnsY0EC</a></p>&mdash; ️ Lightning Locks ️ (@LightningLockz) <a href="https://twitter.com/LightningLockz/status/1341565039921098752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 23, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

North Carolina vs NC State ( UNC straight up ) : State pretty much controlled the game until they collapsed within the final minute.  At one point in the 2nd half, they were up by 14.  But with 9 seconds left, they're at the FT line only up by 2.  First FT . . good.  2nd FT . . miss.   Carolina has two shots to tie the game . . 

 

Oklahoma vs Texas Tech ( OU straight up ) : This was actually a good game that Tech managed to keep a slight lead for most of the game. The last minute was crazy.  But OU had a chance to tie it by basically doing the equivalent of converting 2 onside kicks, by getting the ball off of an intentional missed FT.  And when the kid has a wide open put back at the end, he just couldn't put the ball in the hole.

 

 

 

All in all, this is a fun way to follow and keep up with teams that you normally wouldn't give a damn about. 

But the #BadBeats are frustrating and crazy to see happen live.

[mcleitsy]

I've got a few for the real opening night....The site had an odds booster for moneyline bets. Still curious if I should take the over on Trae for 2.5 3 Pointers. I didn't see an NBA thread for anything gambling related.

 

Prop bet: De'Andre Hunter first field goal +1000  - Lmao

Parlay: Wizards @ 76ers. Moneyline WAS, Over 230.5 +525 - I really like this line for the payout. I think WAS could come in HOT.

Parlay: Mavs @ Suns. Moneyline Mavs, Under 233.5 +265 - Ugh.

Parlay: Spurs @ Grizz. Moneyline Spurs, Under 230.5  +290 - Is Memphis good or were the hawks just bad?

Parlay: Hawks @ Bulls. Moneyline Hawks, Over 232.5 +235 - Hawks ball.

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

New Year's Eve

Started the day with a straight 7 pick parlay and two straight 4 pick parlays, even though I'd told myself to strictly play Round Robin parlays.   Only hit 4 out of 7 on the 7 parlay.   3 out of 4 and 1 out of 4 on the 4 pick parlays.  Just dumb to play like that.

The worst loss was San Jose St, vs Ball St in the Arizona Bowl, who was ranked #21 an was ( -10 ).  They straight up bombed, losing 34 - 13. With that being the 2nd game on the board, that pissed that parlay away immediately. 

 

So for the nightcap, I focused on 4 college bball games and 4 NBA games.   I ran a 2 out of 4 . . 4 pick Round Robin on both sets of games, plus a 6 out of 8 . . 8 pick Round Robin combining all games.  You have to spend more money for Round Robin bets, but you can get your money back if just 1/2 of your teams win within the group  I ended up wagering $58 total on the 16 Round Robin picks.

• Michigan ( straight up ) - After only being up by 2 at halftime vs Maryland, they stretched the lead to as much as 19, and won the game by 11.
• Arizona ( -8.5 ) - This game was a blowout from the jump. Hard to believe that Arizona isn't ranked, despite being 8 - 1.
• Kings vs Rockets ( Over 231.5 ) - The first "sweat game: of the night. Harden had to score 13 points in the final 4 minutes to help put me over the hump.  240 total pts scored.
• Raptors ( -9.5 ) - Weird game, because the Knicks were actually winning this in the 2nd half despite not being able to make a 3. Eventually, the Raptors were able to extend the lead in the 4th and won going away.  Knicks starters: 0 - 23 3FG . . 3 - 36 3FG for the game
• Pelicans ( -5.5 ) - Very confident in this game, despite the Thunder burning me the other night. Pelicans were up double digits for most of the game, then really clamped down in the 4th, holding OKC to only 7 points.   Easy 30+ win

So at this point I'm like . . . hold up.  I'm 3 - 0 and 2 - 0 on my 4 team round robin parlays, and already have a few dollars coming in because I only need 2 out of 4 teams in each group to win, to start getting money.  The games I have left are Suns ( straight up ), Colorado ( +3.5 ), and Oregon ( -12.5 ), which I'm most confident about.

• Suns ( straight up ) - This game was even outside of the 2nd quarter, where the Suns put on a late run before halftime, to stretch the lead to 13 at the break.  Jazz made a late charge in the 4th, but Devin Booker held them off.  Suns win by 11.

Now I'm 6 - 0, and I've gone 4 - 0 on my NBA Round Robin games, giving me $75.  While the Suns were winning, the other 2 games have already started, and I'm looking GREAT in one of them.

• Colorado ( +3.5 ) - This was my least certain game of the night and the only underdog that I picked. The Buffs were fantastic in this game. They played great defense and made timely shots.  Once they pushed the lead to double digits right before halftime, I was feeling REAL GOOD about receiving a few hundred dollars.  Then USC made a run and cut it to 2.  Colorado is tough though.  They buckled down again on defense and gave the ball to their PG, who was making midrange shots down the stretch like Kyrie.  Buffs win by 10.

During the time that Colorado was powering me to being 7 - 0, I'm pissed off, knowing that the perfect 8 - 0 is virtually out of reach.  The money amount wasn't posted yet after the Colorado win, but it would've been an additional $350.  I was content with that because Oregon is wetting the bed big time.

• Oregon ( -12.5 ) - Cal was missing their 2nd best player, and had really one dude who was making all of the key shots.  Meanwhile, the Ducks played like crap in the 1st half.  Only up by 1 at halftime.  Cal even took a 4 pt lead at one point, before Oregon started to get their act together.  With 5:38 to go, Cal makes 2 FTs to cut the lead to 3. 
• Then it happened.  Their main guard, Chris Duarte channels his inner Kyrie Irving, and just took over the game.  He scores the Ducks next 14 points to push the lead to 15 with 2 minutes to go.  After an exchange of FTs and layups, the Ducks are up by 16 with 23 seconds to go.  I'm feeling great.   Ducks foul the shooter.  Cal players makes 1, misses the 2nd . . but Cal gets the rebound!  Cal player makes 2 FTs to cut the lead to 13.  I'm screaming at the play by play on the computer . . "just let the time run out!  Don't foul".   Then the "end of game" message pops up.

 

8 FOR 8 . . CHA-CHING!

• (4 team) College games:  spent $12 . . . won $40
• (4 team) NBA games:       spent $18 . . . won $75
• (8 team) All games:          spent $28 . . . won $1400

 

A very nice end to the New Year!

 

 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

10 months later . . . I definitely lose more than I win.  Probably on average about $100 a month.  I'm winning, then losing it back in true crackhead fashion.

Still looking for the gigantic win, but have only come close.  Most I've won is $1,500 in a day.

My strategy during baseball season is to play a 7 team parlay . . then pick the exact opposite of what I just picked.  Sometimes, my picks are so off, that the opposite picks is what wins me the most money.

 

I feel a big win coming once the NBA cranks back up.  I got very close to getting 8 for 8 last weekend in football.