Salim & other thoughts about the guard rotation.

[mrhonline]

I know, I know, it's just the Summer League. But here's Salim's stats from the two games combined:

48 minutes

22 points

8/18 shooting (44%)

55.6% eFG

1 assist

5 fouls

3 steals

7 turnovers

If the Hawks can get Joe Johnson, I think he will guard the 2's, but also run the offense. Boris would then become a poor man's Joe Johnson, allowing the Hawks to play both Delk and Salim for a total of 48 minutes.

I'm still not sure what role that leaves for Josh Childress, who is better suited at the 2 IF the PG is a distributor. I don't think a backcourt of JJ + Childress is optimal, outside of their length.

By contrast, a Salim + JJ backcourt is very similar to the Arenas+Hughes backcourt was in DC - two guys who can score and pass, but neither are true PG's.

So, once again, I'm going to suggest something taboo - that Childress isn't essential to the long-term plans at SG. Now, I know the responses - it's too early to give up on him, he'll only improve, he's a cheap option, but let's just assume (for the moment) that he's traded as a piece that lands a starting center:

One of JJ's best assets is his durability; he can play over 40 minutes a game for a full season. Boris offers (some of) the same skills (length, athleticism, versatility, ball handling) as JJ at "big guard." At "short guard," Salim and Delk are both shooters who *can* distribute, but not well enough to be traditional PG's. Assuming JJ gets 40 minutes a game, that leaves just 56 minutes at "guard" for Delk, Salim, and Boris. (And I'm ignoring Ivey as well). Clearly, giving Childress minutes takes minutes away from those three players, notably Boris and Salim.

What I'm suggesting is this:

IF (and it's a BIG if) the Hawks can land JJ, Childress is expendable for a big man like Curry. The Hawks have two picks next year, and one of those should be used to add another guard to the backcourt. Between that guard, Salim, Boris, and JJ, the Hawks' backcourt could be set for years. (We've already heard of BK's interest in Diaz from Miami, so let's assume he's the guard added next year).

The "forward" rotation appears to be set already. If Harrington leaves by next year, he could easily be replaced with one of the many available PF's on the market next year or with the OTHER draft pick. (Simply because I like defensive big men who have played with Emeka Okafor and at a proven school like UConn, I'll call the third "forward" Josh Boone. You can substitute your PF of choice).

2006 lineup ---

Salim (28)

Diaz (20)

JJ (40)

Boris (20)

Marvin (32)

Smoove (36)

Boone (24)

Curry (36)

Random Big Man (8)

BTW, that team is still some $7M+ under the cap next season. The leader and oldest member of that team (excl. the big man) would be JJ, at the ripe ole' age of 25.

Just food for thought.

[mrhonline]

Let me add one note now that I realize the Hawks have so much $ available next year even if they land a center AND JJ. If Childress alone isn't enough to get the Hawks a starting center, I would *consider* giving up the "worser" of the Hawks' two picks next year to complete the deal.

I say that because:

a.) The Hawks have to add an interior presence or the development of players like Josh Smith and Marvin Williams will be hindered and the team will continue to lose.

b.) The Hawks are going to get a good player with their other pick next year, probably a guard.

c.) They already have a ton of young players.

d.) They should be able to get a PF in free agency b/c there are several available who will want more playing time (Wilcox, Nene, Ely).

***Childress, Collier, and a protected 1st would be an enticing offer from Magloire, Chandler, or Dalembert.***

It would setup the following for 2006:

Salim/JJ/Marvin/Smith/Daly w/ Diaz, Diaw, and Wilcox all getting good minutes. That's a young, athletic team that can run, defend, and:

A. Score inside (Marvin, Smith, Wilcox)

B. Score outside (Salim, JJ, Marvin)

C. Penetrate (Diaz, Salim, JJ)

D. Rebound (Smith, Daly, Wilcox)

E. Alter shots (Smith, Daly)

[swolehawk2]

Trading Childress is a mistake....he can do more things on the court than anybody we have now....just like Boston traded Joe Johnson too early.....trading Chillz would not be good.

[Nicholasp27]

chill is our BEST player (al is gone, and if not, chill will surpass him anyway) and could very well be better than jj...

smoove will hopefully be better, but as of now, chill is still the better player

and the fact that jazz fans said chill has a 'nice jumper' and the fact that he scored 21 points in the first game while smoove scored far less, shows you that he's only improving

if he doesn't become our sg in the future, he could easily be our sf of the future, getting 30mpg at sg, while marvin/smoove get the other 18 mins plus the 48 mins at pf split

trading chill would be a horrible mistake

[mrhonline]

I like Childress, but Harrington is the Hawks' best player.

JJ and Dalembert would instantly be more valuable players for the Hawks than Childress. Josh Smith and Marvin Williams have more upside, and Salim could develop into a significant role player for the Hawks, as equally valuable as Childress.

As far as his "shooting game" the other night, he hit only one of three shots from behind the arc. Until that improves, he's expendable.

[Buzzard]

Quote:

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Let me add one note now that I realize the Hawks have so much $ available next year even if they land a center AND JJ. If Childress alone isn't enough to get the Hawks a starting center, I would *consider* giving up the "worser" of the Hawks' two picks next year to complete the deal.

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1st off let me start by stating, I am totally against trading Chilz to begin with. It is way to early to trade this guy as stated earlier, and he was not a bad player last year. 2nd, No way do I include a pick plus Chilz for Curry, Delambert or any other restricted FA you can come up with.

Chilz was a top ten pick pick, that should be more than enough to get any of these guys. If a trade is done, I would much prefer it to be Harrington or Diaw. And even with that, I just don't see BK giving up any 1st round pick as part of the package.

I just do not see BK trading away picks, if anything he will try and get another one and/or move higher up.

[pathway23]

Josh Childress is untouchable, imo. Not only is he improving as a player he can be the leader of this team! He has gotten a lot stronger this year I think and this means he will be able to finish stronger, I think it is WAY too early to give up on JChill. He will be entering his 2nd season, while Joe is entering his 5th. If we get Joe Johnson this will only relegate Chill to the bench if Al Harrington isn't traded.

[Buzzard]

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Josh Childress is untouchable, imo. Not only is he improving as a player he can be the leader of this team! He has gotten a lot stronger this year I think and this means he will be able to finish stronger, I think it is WAY too early to give up on JChill. He will be entering his 2nd season, while Joe is entering his 5th. If we get Joe Johnson this will only relegate Chill to the bench if Al Harrington isn't traded.

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I am totally with you on this man. He played well when given the minutes and is also our most mature young player by a wide margin!

[parvezf]

Mr. Honline, I understand your point regarding Childress not being untouchable. I agree that his upside is less than that of MWill and JSmoove, and that his value would be less than that of any young skilled bigman that could be obtained. The reason that I believe Chillz should NOT be traded at this time is the simple stock market approach of "buying low and selling high." At this time, Chillz has question marks with many about his outside shot, his position, etc. But in as little as a year you could see his outside shot solidify, thus opening him up to STARDOM! You would have a SG who is like a heatseeker to the basket, who rebounds, is a team leader, good team defender, who also drains the J.

So, while I agree with your assessment of his current value, it is very realistic to portend that his value will SKYROCKET over the next year or two. And then let us see which teams will be offering players AND picks for him!

[hotboyj]

We would trade him for something if it is draft picks, or players, or cap space, it will be something.

As far as Chillz goes, I don't think we should trade him at all.

Chillz is Ron Artest without the issues.

That can very well be a superstar.

The only guys on this team that are expendable are Diaw(i'd rather have cenk akyol), al(already found your replacement), delk(found your replacement too), and collier(we're looking to sign your replacement).

Other than that everyone is staying. The only guy I can see going is Ivey, and that would just be to the NBDL.

I still think Donta has lots to offer. He could turn out to be a doug christie type player, who plays pesky defense and can hit the open 3.

[mrhonline]

I appreciate your optimism toward Childress, but he will never be a superstar.

He's a four-year senior at a major college school - we shouldn't have to wait on him to develop a shot.

He's a role player right now with the potential to develop into a decent starter. If the Hawks can get a center in exchange for him and a replacement in JJ, he should be traded.

And the comparisons to JJ with Boston are unfair. JJ didn't get much of a chance to prove himself, his upside was always much higher than Childress', and he was much younger than Childress is now.

Childress, on the other hand, is a four-year senior who was given significant minutes his rookie season. His potential is much more known that JJ's was when Boston traded him.

[KB21]

There is a lot of unknown about Joe Johnson and his ability to run the point position, but based on watching him while he was at Arkansas and in limited time in the NBA, I'm telling you that Joe Johnson is a point guard that is miscast due to his size.

Joe and Josh will play together in the backcourt, and I think it will work because I believe Joe is more of a point guard than many people want to believe at this point, plus Josh is an excellent ball handler who makes sound decisions with the ball in his hands.

IMO, there are a lot of people expecting too much from Salim Stoudamire at this point. I think he's going to be a good one, but his role will be as a hired gun off the bench. Much like Ben Gordon was last year.

[mrhonline]

I spent a little time looking at JJ's numbers when Marbury was traded from Phoenix to NY. It wasn't long after that trade that JJ took over the "PG" role. (Actually, Barbosa guarded the 1's, and JJ guarded the 2's, but the latter pushed the ball up the court).

The good news is that the JJ-lead team was just as successful as the Marbury-led team. Unfortunately, both teams won at a 35% clip.

JJ averaged 20/5/5 during that 48 game stretch. However, his assist to turnover ratio was just 2:1 and his team went 17-31. And, as we all know, the additions of QRich and Nash transformed that team the following year.

Still, a team of JJ/Barbosa/Marion/Stoudamire/Voskuhl is a better team than JJ/Childress/Smith/Harrington/Collier. So, if you want a team that will win 20 games, go ahead and pair JJ with Childress.

However, if put a better shooter on the floor with JJ and use Childress as bait to get a better, young center on the court at the same time, then you're more likely to have a winning team.

I'm not saying Childress isn't valuable to a team. What I'm saying is that he's the most tradeable asset on the Hawks and if he could fetch a center, I'd do it. Joe Johnson can be the primary ballhandler for the Hawks either way.

Considering the lack of any centers coming to Hawks in the next two years via the draft or free agency, I'd be willing to take the risk and trade Childress. IMO, the need for a real center is a greater need than the need for a "true PG" if JJ comes.

Also, I'd much rather take a risk on trading Childress for Dalembert than overpay Curry.

[mrhonline]

Quote:

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Joe and Josh will play together in the backcourt, and I think it will work because I believe Joe is more of a point guard than many people want to believe at this point, plus Josh is an excellent ball handler who makes sound decisions with the ball in his hands.

IMO, there are a lot of people expecting too much from Salim Stoudamire at this point. I think he's going to be a good one, but his role will be as a hired gun off the bench. Much like Ben Gordon was last year.

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Two things:

1. Childress is a good ballhandler, but he's less of a PG than Delk or Salim. Plus, he's most useful AWAY from the ball.

2. I personally don't expect too much of Salim. I do expect him to split time with Delk, however, and that the two of them combined could handle the "short" guard spot. Delk would start, and Salim would get major minutes IF he's shooting well.

My ideal starting lineup in this scenario would be Delk/JJ/Smith/Harrington/Dalembert. Salim, Diaw, and Marvin would be the primary subs (a big 4/5 would have to be added as well). IMO, that team is a major improvement over last year's squad both offensively and defensively.

[Nicholasp27]

if getting jj meant trading chill, then i'd say no to jj

however, there is plenty of time for jj/chill/smoove/marvin/al at 2/3/4 positions

there are 144 mins at those 3 positions, which is 28.8mpg for each of them...and if jj plays just 10mpg at the point, then there is 30.8mpg for them

the only issue is that 3 of those 5 would have to come off the bench, but that's how bk built memphis, where everyone played 25mpg and it didnt matter if u started or not

[mrhonline]

Knight didn't build Memphis to play everyone 25 minutes a game. He brought in talent, but it was several years later that Hubie Brown adopted the 10-man rotation.

It should also be noted that Hubie's rotation, while moderately successful, did nothing to elevate Memphis from it's borderline playoff team stigma.

Also, one of JJ's best attributes is his ability to play long minutes. If he comes to Atlanta, expect him to get no less than 40 minutes per game. Childress and Josh Smith were getting at least 32 minutes each by the end of the year as well.

I see no reason to give the #2 pick anything less than 24 minutes a game, and since Al Harrington is your best player, he needs at least 38 minutes a game.

Either you have to play Harrington at center, or are forced to split just 30 minutes between Delk, Salim, Ivey, and Boris.

In other words, you either have to cut guys' minutes who earned them, or cut guys' minutes who need them to develop.

[Final_quest]

I think Delk is the first player who's minutes I would cut. It's too bad his contract makes it difficult to trade him. We might see Delk in at the end of games if we need a win, though.

[mrhonline]

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I think Delk is the first player who's minutes I would cut. It's too bad his contract makes it difficult to trade him. We might see Delk in at the end of games if we need a win, though.

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That's easy for us to say, but we're not Mike Woodson. Delk gievs the Hawks a better chance to win, which is Woodson's number one priority.

Until he's traded or let go next year, Delk will get 20-30 minutes/game.

[Inside_Man]

The Hawks Starting line-up at the end of the season will be.

JJ

Chillz

MWill

Smoove

Curry

[Final_quest]

I agree that playing Delk most likely gives us a better chance to win. But it's also a bad sign that we are here to win and not develop youth.

To me it also means that right now Delk is more talented than Salim, and I would be disappointed by that. Ideally Salim gives us a better chance to win than Delk, even with his inexperience.